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CFD Trading Rate Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar (GBPUSD)

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Ask
Change (%)
Date/Time (GMT 0)
Over the past 10 days
Date Rate Change

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  • 21.03.2024 08:40
    GBP/USD should stay bid and perhaps push up to resistance in the 1.2850/1.2900 area – ING

    Economists at ING analyze how the Bank of England (BoE) meeting could impact the Pound Sterling (GBP). 

    Unchanged forward guidance can help the Pound 

    We do not expect the BoE to change its forward guidance today. And assuming the MPC voting pattern remains the same as February, 2 (hike), 6 (unchanged), 1 (cut), GBP/USD should stay bid and perhaps push up to resistance in the 1.2850/1.2900 area. We doubt one of the votes for a hike shifting to an unchanged position has to hit the Pound.

    The above scenario suggests that EUR/GBP could take another look at major support at 0.8500. However, we retain a view that this should be the medium-term base and that EUR/GBP will gently rise through the year once the BoE starts to elaborate on its easing plans over the coming months.

     

  • 21.03.2024 05:08
    GBP/USD Price Analysis: The immediate upside barrier is seen at the 1.2800 mark, BoE rate decision looms
    • GBP/USD trades on a stronger note near 1.2790 ahead of the BoE rate decision.
    • The pair keeps the bullish vibe above the key EMA; RSI indicator lies above the 50 midlines.
    • The immediate upside barrier is seen at the 1.2800 mark; the initial support level is located at 1.2735.

    The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground below the 1.2800 psychological barrier during the early European session on Thursday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision provides some support to the major pair. GBP/USD currently trades around 1.2790, up 0.04% on the day.

    The US Fed held the rate steady at 5.25–5.50% at its March meeting on Wednesday, with the median dot plot for 2024 unchanged from the 75 basis points (bps) of cuts reported in the December projections. Investors will closely watch the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with no change in rate expected.

    According to the four-hour chart, GBP/USD resumes its upside as the major pair bounces above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies above the 50 midlines, supporting the buyers for the time being.

    The immediate upside barrier for the major pair is seen near the confluence of the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and a psychological level of 1.2800. A decisive break above the latter will see a rally to a high of March 14 at 1.2823, en route to a high of March 11 at 1.2862, and finally the 1.2900 round mark.

    On the other hand, the initial support level is located at the 100-period EMA at 1.2735. The additional downside filter to watch is a low of March 20 at 1.2684. Any follow-through selling will see a drop to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.2668.

    GBP/USD four-hour chart

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2791
    Today Daily Change 0.0005
    Today Daily Change % 0.04
    Today daily open 1.2786
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2728
    Daily SMA50 1.2687
    Daily SMA100 1.2632
    Daily SMA200 1.2594
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2787
    Previous Daily Low 1.2684
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2748
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2724
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2718
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.265
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2615
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2821
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2855
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2923

     

     

  • 21.03.2024 00:02
    GBP/USD gains ground near the 1.2800 barrier, BoE rate decision eyed
    • GBP/USD trades strongly near 1.2797 amid the softer USD. 
    • The Fed held interest rates steady as expected on Wednesday and hinted at multiple rate cuts before the end of the year.
    • The BoE is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 5.25% on Thursday. 
    • Traders await the BoE interest rate decision ahead of US S&P Global PMI data on Thursday.

    The GBP/USD pair gains momentum during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The rebound of the pair is supported by the weaker US Dollar (USD) following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell's dovish press conference. Investors will closely watch the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on Thursday, along with the preliminary US S&P Global PMI for March. At the press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2797, adding 0.09% on the day. 

    The US Fed decided to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25% and 5.5% on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did not indicate the timing of rate cuts, but he expected to lower the interest rate before the end of this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures markets have prices in  a 75% odds that the Fed will start cutting the rate in the June meeting.

    The Fed's Powell noted that the recent high inflation reports had not changed the underlying story of slowly easing price pressures in the US, and Fed officials penciled in three quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of 2024 as solid economic growth will continue. Additionally, the updated economic projections revealed the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, excluding food and energy (Core PCE), will rise 2.6% by the end of the year, compared to 2.4% in the projections reported in December.

    On the UK’s front, The BoE is anticipated to maintain its interest rates unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday. The CPI inflation data in February might keep the Bank of England (BoE) on course to begin cutting interest rates in the coming months. Data released on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed by 3.4% YoY in February from a 4.0% rise in January, below the market consensus of 3.6%. This figure registered the weakest rate since September 2021. Meanwhile, the Core CPI, eased to 4.5% YoY in February from 5.1% in January, worse than the estimation of 4.6%. 

    Moving on, market players will closely watch the BoE interest rate decision, along with the preliminary UK S&P Global PMI for March. On the US docket, the US S&P Global PMI, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Existing Home Sales will be due. These events could give a clear direction to the GBP/USD pair

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2798
    Today Daily Change 0.0077
    Today Daily Change % 0.61
    Today daily open 1.2721
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.2686
    Daily SMA100 1.2626
    Daily SMA200 1.2594
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2733
    Previous Daily Low 1.2668
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2693
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2708
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2682
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2642
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2616
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2747
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2773
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2813

     


     

  • 20.03.2024 18:34
    GBP/USD climbs after FOMC hold rates, revise long-term projections
    • GBP/USD sees a significant uptick, navigating the 1.2700/1.2750 range following the Federal Reserve's rate decision.
    • Fed holds interest rates steady, with an emphasis on the ongoing strength of the US economy and labor market.
    • Despite high recent inflation, Fed's projections for 2024 remain stable; slight adjustment made for 2025 FFR outlook.

    The GBP/USD climbed sharply after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to hold rates but kept their interest rate cut projections unchanged for 2024. Consequently, the Greenback tumbled, while US Treasury bond yields climbed. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades volatile in the 1.2700/1.2750 area ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

    Summary of the Fed’s monetary policy statement

    The US Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% and continue reducing its balance sheet at an ongoing pace since May 2023. In their announcement, Federal Reserve officials highlighted the strength of the US economy and the robustness of the labor market. While progress on inflation has been acknowledged, they cautioned that the effort to stabilize prices is not yet finished. They noted an improved balance in the risks associated with achieving the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, affirming their commitment to data-driven decision-making.

    Following two consecutive months of unexpectedly high inflation data, the Federal Reserve adjusted its monetary policy outlook for 2025. Although the median forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 4.6% from December's projection, the forecast for the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) for 2025 was revised upwards from 3.6% to 3.9%. Other economic indicators were also updated in their statement.

    • The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024 was revised to 2.1%, up from 1.4% in December.
    • The Unemployment Rate was revised downward, expected to fall to 4.0%, from 4.1%.
    • The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index target wasn’t changed, remaining at 2.4%, while core PCE is estimated to end 2024 at 2.6%, up from 2.4%.

    Following the release of the data, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note decreased by two basis points to 4.275%. Concurrently, the US Dollar is experiencing downward pressure.

    GBP/USD Price Action – Hourly Chart

    The GBP/USD surged towards a daily high of 1.2752, but since then, the pair has retreated towards the 100-moving average (SMA) at around 1.2725. As the Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference looms, the major could re-test daily highs on dovish remarks, and that could expose the 1.2800 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the March 14 high of 1.2823, followed by the March 8 high at 1.2894. on the flip side, the pair could edge towards the 50-SMA at 1.2713, ahead of the 1.2700 mark. Further downside is seen at the March 19 low of 1.2667.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2737
    Today Daily Change 0.0016
    Today Daily Change % 0.13
    Today daily open 1.2721
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.2686
    Daily SMA100 1.2626
    Daily SMA200 1.2594
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2733
    Previous Daily Low 1.2668
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2693
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2708
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2682
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2642
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2616
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2747
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2773
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2813

     

     

  • 20.03.2024 14:42
    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Subdued around 1.2700, with bears in charge pre-FOMC decision
    • The Pound falls versus Dollar, awaiting Fed policy news.
    • GBP/USD nears 50-day MA; further drops possible as bears target 1.2600.
    • Break below 1.2700 may seek weekly lows, with rebound eyeing March highs.

    The Pound Sterling drops some 0.12% against the US Dollar in early trading during the North American session as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. A softer inflation report in the United Kingdom (UK) didn’t move the needle in the session, as the GBP/USD trades at 1.2706, with sellers hoping to push prices below the 1.2700 mark.

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The daily chart portrays the pair as neutral biased; GBP/USD buyers leaned into the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2685, the day’s low, but edged above the 1.2700 handles and hovered around that area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points downward below the 50-midline, indicating that selling pressure remains.

    If the GBP/USD extends its losses below 1.2700, it will challenge the 50-DMA, followed by the current week’s low of 1.2667. A further downside is seen at the 100-DMA at 1.2619, ahead of the 1.2600 figure.

    On the flip side, if buyers reclaim the March 18 high of 1.2746 and break a resistance trendline at around the 1.2745/55 area, expect a recovery toward the 1.2800 mark.

    GBP/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2703
    Today Daily Change -0.0018
    Today Daily Change % -0.14
    Today daily open 1.2721
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.2686
    Daily SMA100 1.2626
    Daily SMA200 1.2594
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2733
    Previous Daily Low 1.2668
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2693
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2708
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2682
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2642
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2616
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2747
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2773
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2813

     

     

  • 20.03.2024 12:12
    GBP/USD: Support at or near Tuesday’s 1.2668 low should be firm – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD slips but losses are limited despite weaker-than-expected UK CPI. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Cable needs to extend through 1.2725/1.2735 resistance to strengthen

    UK inflation data came in below expectations. February CPI rose 0.6% MoM (versus 0.7% expected) while inflation slipped to 3.4% in the year (versus 3.5% forecast and 4.0% in January). Core inflation slowed to 4.5% YoY – marginally better than forecast – but services CPI at 6.1% was a tenth above expectations. Despite the positive news, swaps still suggest rate cuts are unlikely to start before August.

    Support at or near Tuesday’s 1.2668 low should be firm. An extension lower to 1.2625/1.2635 is a risk below there. But Sterling needs to extend through 1.2725/1.2735 resistance – which has held advances over the past 24 hours – to strengthen.

     

  • 20.03.2024 05:11
    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Clings near 1.2720 followed by the barrier at 14-day EMA
    • GBP/USD pair could target immediate support around the 50.0% retracement level of 1.2706.
    • MACD, the lagging indicator, suggests a tepid momentum for the pair.
    • The key barrier could be found at the 14-day EMA of 1.2735 level and major resistance of 1.2750 level.

    GBP/USD trims intraday losses and attempts to snap its losing streak on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair hovers near 1.2720 during the Asian trading hours. The market adopts cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the North American session.

    The GBP/USD pair finds immediate support at the 50.0% retracement level of 1.2706, in conjunction with the psychological level of 1.2700. A break below this level could put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2661, followed by the major support of 1.2650 level.

    The technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above 50. This indicates a bullish momentum for the pair. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), a lagging indicator, suggests a tepid momentum for the pair. the MACD line is situated above the centerline but shows divergence below the signal line.

    On the upside, the GBP/USD pair could meet the key barrier at the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.2735 level followed by the major resistance of 1.2750 level. A break above the latter could exert upward support for the pair to explore the area around the psychological level at 1.2800.

    GBP/USD: Daily Chart

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2719
    Today Daily Change -0.0002
    Today Daily Change % -0.02
    Today daily open 1.2721
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.272
    Daily SMA50 1.2686
    Daily SMA100 1.2626
    Daily SMA200 1.2594
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2733
    Previous Daily Low 1.2668
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2693
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2708
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2682
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2642
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2616
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2747
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2773
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2813

     

     

  • 20.03.2024 00:05
    GBP/USD holds above the 1.2700 mark, UK CPI, Fed rate decision eyed
    • GBP/USD trades on a weaker note near 1.2719 on the stronger USD. 
    • The Fed is likely to keep its benchmark rate steady on Wednesday. 
    • UK CPI inflation report might offer some hints on whether the BoE will signal the timeline of its first interest rate cut. 
    • The UK February CPI inflation and Fed interest rate decisions will be the highlights on Wednesday. 

    The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Investors await the UK February Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is anticipated to hold rates steady for a fifth straight time at its March meeting. GBP/USD currently trades around 1.2719, down 0.01% on the day. 

    Markets expect the Fed will keep its benchmark rate steady in a range of 5.25% to 5.5% on Wednesday as inflation remains elevated. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that cutting rates too early could spark a resurgence of inflation and cause more pain for consumers. The Fed is likely to maintain its forward guidance and stress that it needs more evidence that inflation is on a sustainable path toward its 2% target before lowering interest rates. The lower bets on the rate cut expectation might lift the US Dollar (USD) in the near term and cap the upside of the GBP/USD pair. 

    On the other hand, the UK CPI inflation report due later in the day might offer some hints on whether the Bank of England (BoE) will signal the timeline of its first interest rate cut or retain its higher rate for a longer stance. The headline UK CPI is expected to rise 3.6% MoM in February from a 4.0% rise in January, while the Core CPI figure is projected to fall to 4.6% YoY in February from a 5.1% rise in January. The stronger-than-expected data might convince the BoE to hold the higher rates for a longer rate narrative and boost the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Greenback. 

    Traders will keep an eye on the UK CPI inflation for February on Wednesday ahead of the Fed interest rate decision. After the meeting, the focus will turn to Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and economic projections. On Thursday, the BoE interest rate decision will be a closely watched event. These events could give a clear direction to the GBP/USD pair. 

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.272
    Today Daily Change -0.0009
    Today Daily Change % -0.07
    Today daily open 1.2729
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2716
    Daily SMA50 1.2685
    Daily SMA100 1.262
    Daily SMA200 1.2593
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2747
    Previous Daily Low 1.2718
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2729
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2736
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2715
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2702
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2686
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2744
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.276
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2773

     

     

  • 19.03.2024 12:30
    GBP/USD: Support below 1.2675/1.2680 sits at 1.2600/1.2610 – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD trades weaker below support in the low 1.2700s. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Resistance is 1.2745/1.2750

    UK CPI data due on Wednesday and Thursday’s BoE decision may help limit near-term losses.

    Sterling’s extended run lower from its early March peak pushed below minor support in the low 1.2700 zone to test the 40-DMA at 1.2680. Short-term price action suggests a potentially positive response to that test in the form of a bullish ‘hammer’ pattern, however. 

    Resistance is 1.2745/1.2750. 

    Support below 1.2675/1.2680 sits at 1.2600/1.2610.

     

  • 18.03.2024 23:14
    GBP/USD attracts some sellers below the mid-1.2700s, all eyes on Fed, BoE rate decision
    • GBP/USD remains on the defensive near 1.2726 amid the stronger USD and risk-off mood.
    • Fed is likely to maintain its monetary policy for a fifth straight time at its March meeting.
    • BoE is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday, with the expectation of cutting rates in August.
    • The Fed and Bank of England interest rate decisions will be the highlights of this week.

    The GBP/USD pair remains under some selling pressure during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The uptick in the US Dollar (USD) above 103.50 and higher US yields provide some support to the major pair. Markets turn cautious ahead of the central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions. At press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2726, down 0.02% on the day.

    The Fed is anticipated to keep its interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight time at its March meeting on Wednesday and signal that they still need further evidence that inflation to return sustainably to its 2% target. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the US central bank might cut its benchmark interest rate later this year, even though continued progress on lowering inflation to the target “is not assured.”

    Traders will also closely monitor press conference, which is unlikely to show a significant shift. However, there is still a possibility that policymakers might reduce the number of rate cuts they anticipate seeing this year to two from the earlier three.

    On the other hand, UK inflation is moderating, but the BoE remains cautious in its approach until the CPI returns to the 2% target. The BoE is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday. Investors expect the UK central bank to start cutting rates in August, with one or two further cuts by the end of the year.

    Later on Tuesday, the US Building Permits, and Housing Starts are due in the US docket. All eyes will be on the Fed monetary policy meeting and the press conference on Wednesday. Also, the Fed’s officials will update their quarterly economic projections. On the UK docket, the BoE interest rate decision on Thursday will be in the spotlight. Along with the rate decision, BoE policymakers might offer clues about inflation, economic growth, and the labour market outlook.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2726
    Today Daily Change -0.0010
    Today Daily Change % -0.08
    Today daily open 1.2736
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2709
    Daily SMA50 1.2686
    Daily SMA100 1.2614
    Daily SMA200 1.2592
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2759
    Previous Daily Low 1.2725
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2738
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2746
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2721
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2706
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2687
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2754
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2773
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2788

     

     

  • 18.03.2024 17:00
    GBP/USD stabilizes ahead of key central bank decisions, UK’s inflation in focus
    • GBP/USD hold steady as BoE, Fed decisions loom.
    • US homebuilders' confidence rises, mortgage rates may drop if Fed eases.
    • UK inflation data pivotal for Sterling pre-BoE decision.
    • The GBP/USD is under pressure as unexpected UK CPI may alter BoE policy.

    The Pound Sterling losses steam and treads water against the US Dollar as traders prepare for the announcement of major central banks' monetary policy decisions. The Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve are expected to hold rates unchanged, though a ‘hawkish tilt’ of the Fed might weigh on Sterling; the GBP/USD trades at 1.2727, barely down 0.04%.

    Sterling awaits Fed and BoE decisions, as UK inflation could set the tone

    This week, the US economic docket will feature housing data on the first two days of the week. Data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) revealed that homebuilders' confidence rose in March to its highest level since July 2023, as mortgage rates dip, on expectations that the Fed might begin to ease policy. The NAHB Market Index came at 51, up from 48 in February.

    Across the pond, UK inflation is due on Wednesday, a day ahead of the BoE’s decision. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is expected to dip from 4% to 3.5% YoY, while core figures are estimated at 4.6% YoY, down from 5.1%.

    If UK inflation cools as estimated, that could be negative for Cable, which would likely be under pressure later on Wednesday as the Fed announced its decision and updated its projections. The data could influence Thursday’s BoE decision and tilt the UK’s central bank slightly dovish.

    On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected inflation in Britain could underpin the GBP/USD higher, as the BoE would adhere to the mantra of keeping rates “higher for longer.”

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    Since reaching the current year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.2894, the GBP/USD has dived more than 1.30%. if sellers push prices below 1.2700, that could open the door to challenge dynamic support at the 50-day moving average (DMA)  at 1.2685. further downside is seen once cleared, at the 100-DMA at 1.2607, followed by the 200-DMA at 1.2590. On the flip side, if buyers lift the exchange rate above last Friday’s high of 1.2758, further upside is seen at 1.2800.

     

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 18.03.2024 12:44
    GBP/USD: Holding support in the low 1.2700 area could see the short-term trend stabilize – Scotiabank

    GBP/USD remains pinned back to the low 1.2700s. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Trend oscillators are mixed

    Trend oscillators are mixed and spot is holding a tight trading range above 1.2700. Broader price signals suggest a soft undertone in GBP/USD after a soft close last week but holding support in the low 1.2700 area could see the short-term trend stabilize. 

    Resistance is 1.2765/1.2770. Support is 1.2700/1.2710.

    See: EUR/GBP seen stabilising around the 0.8500 or trading closer to the big 0.8500 support in the short term – ING

  • 18.03.2024 02:45
    GBP/USD consolidates around 1.2730 as markets adopt caution ahead of Fed decision
    • GBP/USD puts efforts to retrace its recent losses despite market caution.
    • The US Dollar retreats on the decline in US Treasury yields.
    • A slew of UK data is set to be released on Tuesday including CPI, PPI, and Retail Price Index.

    GBP/USD appears to reverse its decline initiated on Thursday, hovering around 1.2730 during the Asian session on Monday. However, the pair faced setbacks amidst market caution preceding the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a surge in momentum, buoyed by the rise in US Treasury yields on Friday. This uptick in yields was fueled by a hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve, which was anticipated to maintain its heightened interest rates amidst recent inflationary pressures. However, a subsequent retreat in US yields exerted pressure on the US Dollar (USD), at the time of writing.

    According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in March presently stands at 1.0%, while it has diminished to 6.1% for May. The likelihood of a rate cut in June and July is lower, at 56.3% and 75.2%, respectively.

    On Friday, the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March dipped to 76.5, from the previous reading of 76.9. This decline contrasts with expectations for it to remain steady. Meanwhile, Industrial Production (MoM) edged up by 0.1% in February, surpassing the anticipated flat reading of 0.0% and recovering from the previous month's decline of 0.5%.

    On the other side, Consumer Inflation Expectations, as released by the Bank of England (BoE) on Friday, rose by 3.0%, showing a decrease from the previous uptick of 3.3%. This data prompted markets to increase their wagers on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in June, potentially weakening the Pound Sterling (GBP) and consequently pressuring the GBP/USD pair downward.

    On Monday, the Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) for March surged by 1.5%, surpassing the previous rise of 0.9%. Additionally, the annual index saw an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous 0.1%. Looking ahead to Tuesday, traders are expected to closely monitor several market indicators from the United Kingdom (UK), including the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Retail Price Index.

    GBP/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.2735
    Today Daily Change -0.0001
    Today Daily Change % -0.01
    Today daily open 1.2736
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.2709
    Daily SMA50 1.2686
    Daily SMA100 1.2614
    Daily SMA200 1.2592
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.2759
    Previous Daily Low 1.2725
    Previous Weekly High 1.2865
    Previous Weekly Low 1.2725
    Previous Monthly High 1.2773
    Previous Monthly Low 1.2518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2738
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2746
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2721
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2706
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2687
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2754
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2773
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2788

     

     

  • 15.03.2024 17:23
    GBP/USD resumes a downtrend amid softish US data
    • GBP/USD falls as US inflation data and retail sales reinforce a less dovish Fed outlook.
    • Industrial Production in the US shows signs of recovery, contributing to the US Dollar’s resilience.
    • UK labor market report influences BoE rate cut speculations, with attention on June's monetary policy.
    • Market anticipation builds for next week’s Fed and BoE meetings, with inflation data set to impact GBP/USD.

    The Pound Sterling is set to finish the week with losses, yet extended its downtrend for two straight days after piercing the 1.2800 figure. The GBP/USD exchanges hands at 1.2731, post losses of 0.16%.

    GBP/USD retreats below 1.2800, exposing critical support levels after hot US inflation

    The Greenback remains bid as traders trimmed their bets of a dovish Federal Reserve. The US Department of Labor revealed February’s consumer and producer inflation data, with figures suggesting that prices remain elevated, unable to break below the 3% threshold. In the meantime, a solid Retail Sales report failed to exceed estimates but showed an improvement compared to the prior month’s reading.

    Today, the US economic schedule showed that Industrial Production rebounded on February, snapping two months of consecutive deterioration. Manufacturing output came at 0.1% MoM, up from -0.5% contraction in January, and exceeded the consensus according to data revealed by the Fed. Recently, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on its preliminary reading was 76.5, below estimates and the previous reading of 76.9. Americans expect inflation to remain at 3% in the 12 months from March and for five years at 2.9%.

    Across the pond, a softish labor market report weakened the Cable. A rise in the unemployment rate and a dip in Average Earnings excluding Bonuses, a measure of wage inflation, dipped from 6.2% to 6.1%. The data sparked markets to ramp up bets on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in June.

    In the meantime, traders brace for the next week’s monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the BoE. The consensus expect both institutions to hold rates unchanged, though any dovish hints, could trigger a reaction by the financial markets. Traders would also be looking at the release of inflation figures in the UK

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    GBP/USD buyers failed to cling to gains above 1.2800, exacerbating a drop below the latest cycle high of 1.2827, exacerbating a pullback below the 1.2800 handles. That said, key support levels were exposed, like the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2685, followed by the next cycle low seen on March 1 low at 1.2599. once those levels are cleared, the confluence of the 100 and 200-DMAs around 1.2589/1.2601 would be up next.

     

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 15.03.2024 05:21
    GBP/USD hangs near one-week low, looks to US macro data for fresh impetus
    • GBP/USD drifts lower for the second straight day and drops to over a one-week trough.
    • The USD sticks to the hotter US PPI-inspired gains and exerts some pressure on the pair.
    • Traders now look to the US macro data for some impetus ahead of the FOMC next week.

    The GBP/USD pair continues losing ground for the second straight day – also marking the fourth day of a negative move in the previous five – and drops to over a one-week low during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2735 region and seem vulnerable to slide further amid some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying.

    The hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) pointed to still-sticky inflation and cooled market expectations for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, led to the overnight rise in the US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a generally weaker tone surrounding the equity markets, is seen underpinning the safe-haven Greenback and exerting some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

    Meanwhile, the current market pricing indicates a greater chance that the US central bank will begin cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting. This is reinforced by a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Apart from this, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep interest rates higher for longer should limit losses for the GBP/USD pair.

    Traders might also prefer to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path before positioning for the next leg of a directional move for the USD. Hence, the focus will remain on the two-day FOMC meeting starting next Tuesday. In the meantime, Friday's release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production and the Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index might provide some impetus to the GBP/USD pair.

     

  • 15.03.2024 00:22
    GBP/USD extends its downside below 1.2750, US data eyed
    • GBP/USD remains under pressure around 1.2745, losing 0.06% on the day. 
    • US Retail Sales rose 0.6% MoM in February from -1.1% in January, worse than expected. 
    • BoE’s Bailey said central bankers turned to the question of how long they needed to keep rates high as inflation eased. 
    • Investors will focus on US Industrial Production and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday. 

    GBP/USD extends its downside around the mid-1.2700s during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The major pair drops to multi-day lows near 1.2740 amid the rebound in the Greenback after strong US economic data. Later in the day, traders will monitor the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March, which is expected to remain steady at 76.9. 

    Data released from the US Census Bureau on Thursday revealed that US Retail Sales jumped 0.6% MoM in February from a downwardly revised -1.1% in the previous month, below the market consensus of a 0.8% m/m rise. The Retail Sales Control Group was flat at 0% MoM from the previous reading of a 0.3% MoM decline. Additionally, the PPI figure rose 0.6% MoM in February from 0.3% MoM in January, while the Core PPI figure climbed 0.3% MoM from a 0.5% gain in January. 

    The stronger US PPI data might convince the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates at a 23-year high for longer than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that rate cuts do remain on the table, but Fed officials will need more evidence of inflation data before considering cutting the interest rate. The high-for-longer rate narrative lifts the US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for GBP/USD. Investors will closely watch the FOMC policy meeting, which is anticipated to hold rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting.

    On the British Pound front, the UK GDP growth numbers expanded by 0.2% MoM in January, indicating the UK exited from a recession. The markets have pushed back expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut from June to August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that central bankers turned to the question of how long they needed to keep interest rates high, given that there are some signs that restrictive policies are working to bring down inflation pressures.

    Looking ahead, the US Industrial Production and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released on Friday. Traders will take cues from the data ahead of the FOMC monetary policy meeting next week. 

     

  • 14.03.2024 18:17
    GBP/USD slumps on strong US producer inflation, Fed rate cut odds trim
    • Pound drops versus strong Dollar post-US PPI, indicating inflation.
    • US Retail Sales resilience muddles Fed rate cut forecast.
    • UK growth adjusts BoE cut expectations in global policy reevaluations.
    • The US job market and higher Treasury yields strengthen the US Dollar, weighing on  GBP.

    The Pound Sterling tumbled against the US Dollar on Thursday after the US Department of Labor announced a rebound on inflation on the producer side that could dent the Federal Reserve’s easing policy. Therefore, the GBP/USD edges lower, trading at 1.2748, down 0.38%.

    GBP/USD weakens as US economic data prevent Fed from easing policy, as US yields rise

    The Greenback is gathering momentum as it remains bid following a tranche of US economic data. US Retail Sales missed the estimates of 0.8% but improved by 0.6% MoM after plunging sharply in January. Even though the data would justify a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a measure of inflation on the producer side known as the Producer Price Index (PPI), reaccelerated.

    February’s PPI was strong, at 1.6% YoY, up from 0.9%, while the core PPI stood at 2% unchanged. Both figures exceeded estimates.

    The labor market remained tight, as Initial Jobless Claims for the last week dipped from 210K to 209K, below estimates of 218K.

    After the data US Treasury bond yields had risen sharply, with the 10-year benchmark note rate sitting at 4.296%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the buck’s performance versus other currencies, climbed 0.53%, yo at 103.33.

    Across the ponds, the latest GDP figures for the UK showed the economy exited from a recession and grew 0.2% MoM in January. This has pushed back expectations for a Bank of England rate cut from June to August.

    Given the backdrop of the Fed's expected decrease in interest rates in June, the GBP/USD should be favored in the near term. However, if US data continues to remain strong, further GBP/USD downside is seen.

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The daily chart portrays the pair has broken the previous weekly low of 1.2744, but a daily close below that level is needed, before the Pound Sterling weakens further. In that event, the next support would be 1.2700, followed by fresh lows at the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2685. On the other hand, if buyers reclaim 1.2800, look for a test of weekly highs at 1.2823.

     

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 14.03.2024 07:29
    GBP/USD seen recovering to the 1.3000 area on a 12-month view – Rabobank

    Economists at Rabobank retain a constructive view for the Pound Sterling (GBP) this year.

    EUR/GBP to move lower toward 0.8400 in the latter half of this year

    On balance, we retain a modestly constructive picture for GBP vs. the EUR for the year ahead. This is supported by our house expectation that the BoE could retain steady policy until September. This compares with our forecast of rate cuts from both the ECB and the Fed in June. We continue to forecast a move to EUR/GBP 0.8400 in the latter half of this year.

    We expect that the interest rate differential, signs of an improving UK economic outlook combined with the prospect of a dull UK election and a relatively stable political backdrop should provide moderate support for the Pound.

    We see Cable recovering to the 1.3000 area on a 12-month view, though we see scope for dips on a one-to-three-month view on bouts of broad-based USD strength.

     

  • 14.03.2024 03:49
    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Remains depressed below 1.2800, bullish potential seems intact
    • GBP/USD ticks lower on Thursday amid the emergence of some USD buying.
    • The divergent BoE-Fed policy expectations should limit any meaningful slide.
    • Any further decline might find support near the 1.2750 resistance breakpoint.

    The GBP/USD pair continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction and extends its consolidative price move around the 1.2800 mark for the second successive day on Thursday. The setup, meanwhile, seems tilted in favour of bullish traders and warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the vicinity of the 1.2900 round figure, or the highest level since July 2023 touched last week.

    The British Pound (GBP) might continue to draw support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) might keep interest rates higher for longer. In contrast, investors seem convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates at the June policy meeting. This, along with the underlying strong bullish sentiment around the global equity markets, should cap the upside for the safe-haven Greenback and act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

    Even from a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the 1.2750 horizontal barrier validates the near-term positive outlook. Adding to this, oscillators on the daily chart – though have eased from higher levels – are holding comfortably in the bullish territory and suggest that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside. Hence, any further decline might continue to attract some buyers near the 1.2750 resistance breakpoint.

    The said area should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively could drag the GBP/USD pair below the 1.2700 mark, towards testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the 1.2680 zone. Some follow-through selling might expose the 1.2600 confluence, comprising the 100- and the very important 200-day SMAs. The subsequent slide could turn spot prices vulnerable to retest the YTD low, around the 1.2520-1.2515 region touched in February.

    On the flip side, any meaningful positive move beyond the 1.2800 mark is likely to confront some resistance near the weekly swing high, around the 1.2850-1.2860 region. A sustained strength beyond should allow the GBP/USD pair to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the 1.2900 round figure. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls and lift spot prices to the 1.2940-1.2945 intermediate hurdle en route to the 1.3000 psychological mark.

    GBP/USD daily chart

    fxsoriginal

     

  • 14.03.2024 00:05
    GBP/USD holds above the 1.2800 mark ahead of US Retail Sales data
    • GBP/USD holds positive ground around 1.2805 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
    • The UK GDP growth numbers rose 0.2% MoM in January vs. -0.1% prior. 
    • Investors have priced in 71 basis points (bps) in rate cuts this year from 95% at the beginning of the week. 

    The GBP/USD pair hovers around the 1.2800 mark during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The modest uptick of the major pair is supported by the weaker US Dollar (USD). Nonetheless, a cautious mode in the market ahead of the key US event might boost the Greenback and cap the upside of the pair. GBP/USD currently trades near 1.2604, adding 0.05% on the day. 

    On Wednesday, the UK monthly GDP estimate rose 0.2% MoM in January from a 0.1% contraction in the previous reading, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, the improved data failed to lift the Pound Sterling as investors believe the UK economy is likely to end the 2023 H2 recession. Meanwhile, Industrial Production dropped 0.2% in January from December’s reading of 0.6% MoM gain.  

    Across the pond, traders, we will closely monitor the US Retail Sales data for February, which might influence the Fed’s next move. The figure is estimated to show a rise of 0.8% MoM from a 0.8% fall in January. The stronger-than-expected report might convince the Fed to shift to a less-dovish setting. According to the CME FedWatch Tools, Fed funds futures now see 71 basis points (bps) in rate cuts this year from 95% at the beginning of the week. 

    Looking ahead, the US February Retail Sales data will be the highlight on Thursday. This event might trigger volatility in the market. On Friday, the UK Consumer Inflation Expectations will be released. Next week, investors will shift their attention to the FOMC interest rate decision. 

     

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