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CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Swedish Krone (EURSEK)

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  • 14.03.2024 10:22
    EUR/SEK: Inability to overcome resistance at 11.42 could mean risk of one more down leg – SocGen

    EUR/SEK is fractionally higher at 11.20. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s technical outlook.

    Break below 11.12/11.10 can result in deeper decline

    EUR/SEK has so far carved out a higher trough near 11.12/11.10 as compared to the one achieved in December near 11.00. An initial bounce can’t be ruled out, but it would be interesting to see if the pair can reclaim the lower limit of previous multi month range at 11.42. Inability to overcome this resistance could mean risk of one more down leg.

    Break below 11.12/11.10 can result in deeper decline towards the trend line drawn since 2022 at 11.00 and 10.90.

     

  • 14.03.2024 09:30
    EUR/SEK can find support at 11.20 in the coming days – ING

    Sweden’s inflation figures released today are endorsing the Riksbank’s dovish turn, economists at ING say.

    Encouraging inflation figures for the Riksbank

    Headline CPIF inflation declined sharply from 3.3% to 2.5%, while the Riskbank's favoured CPIF excluding energy decelerated from 4.4% to 3.5%. The numbers are below our expectations and the consensus and partly endorse the optimism shown by the Riksbank at its latest policy meeting when it signalled rate cuts later this year.

    Friday’s inflation expectations data released by Prospera are also very important for the Riksbank. 

    We continue to prefer NOK over SEK as we prepare for a broad-based decline in the Dollar and improved risk sentiment in FX. In our view, EUR/SEK can find support at 11.20 in the coming days.

  • 27.02.2024 11:35
    EUR/SEK to continue to trend lower this year – Rabobank

    Following a move higher in EUR/SEK at the very start of this year, the Swedish Krona has re-embarked on its improving trend in recent weeks. Economists at Rabobank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Rate cuts announced by the Riksbank this year will have some connection to ECB policy moves

    The risk of triggering another spate of SEK weakness vs. the EUR suggests that it is likely that any rate cuts announced by the Riksbank this year will have some connection to ECB policy moves. 

    The market currently expects a little more easing from the ECB than the Riksbank on a six-month view. This likely reflects the higher profile of the CPI inflation rate in Sweden. Assuming no change in this assessment, there is likely scope for EUR/SEK to continue edging lower. 

    We maintain our three-month forecast of EUR/SEK at 11.10.

     

  • 23.02.2024 09:52
    EUR/SEK to rebound to the 11.30 area or higher before a longer-term decline can materialise – ING

    EUR/SEK broke decisively through the 11.20 area this week. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

    A strong week, but will it last?

    The stronger-than-expected headline CPIF in Sweden, some stickiness in long-term inflation expectations and the global equity rally have all contributed to a strong week for the Krona. Our short-term view on SEK is, however, not as rosy. 

    Risk sentiment might struggle to keep fuelling rallies in high-beta currencies like SEK in the next couple of weeks. 

    The end of FX sales means the downside could be rather slippery for the Krona. 

    We still see EUR/SEK rebound to the 11.30 area or higher before a longer-term decline can materialise.

     

  • 20.02.2024 09:58
    EUR/SEK: Riksbank’s monetary policy communication is adding hurdles to the Krona recovery path – ING

    The Riksbank’s dovish turn looks a bit premature, economists at ING say.

    EUR/SEK can trade higher from these levels in the short term

    We suspect that the easing guidance offered in February can end up being counterproductive. That is because – as admitted by the Riksbank itself – avoiding a weakening of the Krona remains crucial for the inflation battle, but at the same time the early easing guidance (along with the end of FX sales) puts the SEK in a fragile spot if sentiment turns negative for high-beta FX. 

    We think EUR/SEK can trade higher from these levels in the short term, but the Riksbank may well be ready to redeploy FX sales should SEK weaken too much. 

    Our medium-term view for the pair is a break below 11.00, but once again we suspect the Riksbank’s monetary policy communication is adding hurdles to the SEK recovery path.

     

  • 19.02.2024 07:27
    EUR/SEK: The cyclical backdrop remains a headwind for the Krona – Danske Bank

    EUR/SEK and USD/SEK have rebounded sharply year-to-date. Economists at Danske Bank analyze Krona’s outlook.

    SEK to weaken on the back of cyclical backdrop, relative central bank pricing and structural flows outlook

    The cyclical backdrop remains a headwind for the SEK in our view amid subpar and even recession-like European growth outlook. 

    The Swedish economy, which entered recession in Q3 2023, is set to pick up even as domestic demand and the housing market are stagnant.

    The Riksbank will not lag the ECB – and the Fed will not significantly lead other central banks – in the easing cycle. This leaves the SEK in a vulnerable position from a rates perspective, too. 

    Structural flows remain a headwind for the SEK. 

    We target the EUR/SEK at 11.60 in 6-12 months.

     

  • 26.01.2024 15:46
    EUR/SEK: Target set at 11.60 in 6-12 months – Danske Bank

    Last year ended on a strong note for the Swedish Krona (SEK). Economists at Danske Bank analyze EUR/SEK outlook.

    Global macro cycle does not bode well for the SEK in 2024

    The cyclical backdrop remains a headwind for the SEK amid subpar and even recession-like European growth outlook. 

    The Riksbank will not lag the ECB in the easing cycle, which leaves the SEK in a vulnerable position. Repricing of central banks may hurt risk sentiment. 

    The structural flows picture is still a medium-term headwind for the SEK. 

    Should the global economy pick up more than expected in 2024, this could lend support to the SEK over the medium term.

    Forecast 11.20 (1M), 11.40 (3M), 11.60 (6M), 11.60 (12M)

     

  • 26.01.2024 07:26
    EUR/SEK seen moving back to 10.80 on a 12-month view – Rabobank

    The Swedish Krona (SEK) has given back some of the ground it won vs. the Euro (EUR) in the final two months of last year. Economists at Rabobank analyze EUR/SEK outlook.

    EUR/SEK to trend lower towards 11.00 on a 3-to-6-month view

    A cautious outlook on rates from the Riksbank combined with a dash of optimism that the domestic economic outlook should improve later this year suggests scope for the SEK to regain its footing and for EUR/SEK to trend lower towards 11.00 on a 3-to-6-month view.

    Despite the SEK’s improved tone late last year, EUR/SEK remains well above its 5-year average. A weak currency will add to inflation risks. However, it can also generate growth through the export channel; signs of this may now be emerging. We would expect EUR/SEK to continue its normalisation this year and move back to 10.80 on a 12-month view.

     

  • 12.01.2024 10:00
    EUR/SEK: The Riksbank currently presents a sad picture all round – Commerzbank

    The Swedish Krona fell sharply after Thursday’s speech by Per Jansson, the Deputy Governor of the Riksbank. Economists at Commerzbank analyze SEK outlook.

    There are arguments to suspect that the Riksbank is not in a position to fight inflation decisively

    Per Jansson, Deputy Governor of the Riksbank ranted that the favorable inflation trend in recent months might allow the Riksbank to cut interest rates quite quickly (and thus quicker than previously assured). Jansson's statement would be justified if the market shared his view. But it does not, as the market reaction to his comments showed: the SEK fell sharply and was the worst performing G10 currency during Thursday's session.

    The Riksbank currently presents a sad picture all round: Its far too cautious rate hikes during the inflation shock, its refusal to openly describe its FX operations as FX interventions (we observers are not so stupid, chaps!) and now a looming rush to cut rates again.

    I don't blame those who are beginning to suspect that the Riksbank is not in a position to fight inflation decisively. There are arguments for this view, such as the too much debt of too many private households. We at Commerzbank Research are not so pessimistic. But we will find out much later who is right. Until then, a risk premium is justified. A higher one if statements like Jansson's are made more often.

     

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