CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Japanese Yen (EURJPY)

• RSI on the daily chart for EUR/JPY reveals growing buying momentum, while contrasting MACD may suggest a steady bearish sentiment.
• The hourly RSI near overbought condition may signal that the pair may consolidate in the next hours.

The EUR/JPY pair is seen holding comfortable grounds at 161.83, marking a gain of 0.31%. On the shorter timeframes indicators gained significant ground and are near overbought territory which could mean the pair might consolidate in the next hours. Overall, the outlook remains bullish but the buyers must regain the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to make the short-term outlook more positive.

On the daily chart for EUR/JPY, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a positive trend. It has increased from negative to positive territory, signaling stronger buying momentum. However, the decreasing red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) imply bearish but less intense momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

The EUR/JPY hourly chart shows that the RSI rose to around 60, matching the daily positive momentum. Nonetheless, despite the strong buying pressure, the MACD presents flat green bars, suggesting a stagnant bullish momentum. This reflects a potential consolidation phase for the remainder of the session.

EUR/JPY hourly chart'

In the broader scale technical outlook, despite the bears pulling the EUR/JPY pair below the 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), it remains above both the 100 and 200-day SMAs. This indicates that the bulls continue to control the market on larger time frames. The buy signals indicated by the RSI on both the daily and hourly charts are slightly overshadowed by the stagnating MACD on the hourly chart as buyers might start to take profits in the coming hours.

• EUR/JPY trades on a softer note near 161.30 amid the growing possibility of a March rate hike from the BoJ. 
• The cross maintains the bearish tone below the key EMA; RSI momentum indicator lies below the 50-midline. 
• The first upside barrier is seen at 161.65; the initial support level for the cross is located at 160.87. 

The EUR/JPY cross edges lower to 161.30 during the early European session on Wednesday. Most companies have agreed to offer sizeable pay increases at annual talks with trade unions, paving the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to end negative interest rates as early as next week. This, in turn, lifts the Japanese Yen (JPY) and creates a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. 

According to the four-hour chart, EUR/JPY keeps the bearish vibe unchanged as the cross holds below the 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which lies below the 50-midline, supports the sellers for the time being. 

The key upside barrier for EUR/JPY will emerge at the confluence of the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the 50-period EMA at 161.65. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at the 100-period EMA at 161.85. Any follow-through buying above this level will see a rally to a high of March 8 at 162.17, followed by a high of March 6 at 162.95. 

On the other hand, the initial support level for the cross is located at a low of March 12 at 160.87. The next contention level is seen at the lower limit of the Bollinger Band 160.25. The additional downside filter to watch is a psychological round mark at 160.00. 

EUR/JPY four-hour chart

• The daily chart indicators suggest that overall selling pressure remains steady despite daily gains.
• On the hourly chart, indicators send mixed signals.
• The pair defending the 100-day SMA contributes to the overall outlook remaining bullish.

In Tuesday's trading session, EUR/JPY is trading roughly around 161.27, with a daily gain of 0.44%. Despite recent selling pressures, the pair maintains a position above critical support levels, hinting at an overall bullish power. In the short term, the sellers seem to have a stronger grip, as the pair struggles below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the daily chart, the EUR/JPY's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in negative territory. This implies that the selling pressure has been dominating the market in recent sessions. This trend is underscored by the red bars observed in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), indicating negative but weakening momentum. Despite this, the pair is still above its key 100 and 200-day SMAs, pointing to broader bullish control.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

Switching focus to the hourly chart, the RSI has been moving within positive territory. On the other hand, the MACD is printing decreasing green bars, which suggests a slightly tapering bullish momentum. This aligns with the slope of the RSI which seems to have flattened during the American session.

EUR/JPY Hourly Chart

• EUR/JPY snaps its losing streak after dovish remarks from Japanese minister.
• Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki indicated that the present moment is not conducive to tightening monetary policy.
• The Euro strengthens in response to the ECB's commitment to uphold strict policy measures aimed at achieving its inflation target.

EUR/JPY edges higher to 161.40 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, halting its five-day losing streak. The Japanese Yen (JPY) encounters downward pressure following remarks made by Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, who suggested that now is not the appropriate time for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten monetary policy. This dynamic provides support for the EUR/JPY cross.

Furthermore, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated in his parliamentary speech on Tuesday, "When the achievement of a 2% inflation target is within reach in a stable and sustainable manner, we will consider exiting from negative interest rates. If inflation accelerates and necessitates monetary tightening, we may raise interest rates without reducing the BoJ's bond holdings."

On the other side, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has adopted a prudent stance, stressing the importance of gathering further evidence before considering any adjustments to interest rates. The ECB has opted to retain its current monetary policy, reaffirming its commitment to steering inflation back to its desired levels.

The ECB has clearly stated its intention to maintain appropriately stringent policy measures for as long as necessary to achieve its inflation target. The positive sentiment surrounding the ECB could potentially strengthen the Euro, thereby providing support for the EUR/JPY cross. Investors are expected to closely monitor the release of Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Tuesday.

• Daily chart analysis reveals heightened selling pressure with the RSI and MACD deep in the negative zone.
• The hourly chart saw a short-lived recovery in the indicators.
• Although the pair has experienced recent declines, its positioning above the key SMAs signals an ongoing bullish outlook.

In Monday's session, the EUR/JPY pair is trading at 160.57, showing a daily decrease of 0.19%. Despite ongoing fluctuations, it is currently observed that the sellers are moderating the buyers' strength. A short-lived recovery seen in the shorter time frames seems to be waning.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures around 41, indicating strong selling pressure. A downtrend was noted from being in positive territory a week ago at a peak of approximately 65 as the seller seized control. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is witnessing rising red bars, interpreting a growth in negative momentum.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Moving to the hourly chart of EUR/JPY, the RSI is almost equivalent to the daily chart showing an RSI of around 40 after hitting oversold conditions earlier in the session. The MACD histogram depicts decreasing green bars, indicating that the built buying momentum is declining.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

In the larger picture, the EUR/JPY pair, despite recently losing ground, remains above the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This suggests that on larger time frames, bullish sentiment persists.

• EUR/JPY retreats, influenced by potential changes in BoJ's monetary policy and wage negotiation outcomes.
• Japan's GDP outperforms expectations, stoking anticipations for a BoJ rate adjustment in the near future.
• ECB's hawkish tone tempers immediate easing expectations, with policy shifts eyed for June amidst inflation concerns.

The Euro registered losses against the Japanese Yen in the morning of the North American session. It was down 0.13% and traded at 160.55 after hitting a daily high below the 161.00 mark. Rumors that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could end negative rates sponsored a neg-down in the EUR/JPY pair.

Euro dips against Yen on growing speculations over BoJ rate hikes

According to sources cited by Reuters, some BoJ policymakers are considering ending the negative rate. Officials are eyeing wage negotiations between big companies and unions on March 13. A significant increase in salaries could increase the odds of a rate hike by the BoJ as soon as the March 18-19 meeting.

Data-wise, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan for the last quarter of 2023 indicated the economy dodged a recession, coming at 0.1% QoQ, exceeding estimates and the prior’s reading at  -0.1%. Annually based, GDP was 0.4%, less than expected, above the previous estimate of -0.4%.

In the Euro area (EU), the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates unchanged at last Thursday's meeting, though ECB President Christine Lagarde opened the door to easing policy in June. Initially, the EUR/JPY paired its losses, but it resumed its downtrend last Friday and carried onto Monday’s session.

During the European session, ECB’s Kazimir delivered hawkish remarks, pushing the first rate cut until June. He acknowledged that risks of inflation are “alive and kicking.” He added that discussions should already start and favor a “smooth and steady” cycle of policy easing.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Since last week, the EUR/JPY has extended its losses to more than 1.70%, breaking key support levels like the Tenkan and Kijun Sen, and the psychological 161.00 level. If sellers remain in charge, the pair could aim towards the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) at 158.90/159.00, though firstly a break of the 160.00 mark is a must. On the other hand, if buyers move in and push the exchange rate above 161.00, look for a test of the Kijun-Sen at 161.31.

• EUR/JPY could gain ground on growing speculation of BoJ lifting negative rates.
• Japan’s GDP QoQ increased by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, against the previous decline of 0.1%.
• Traders will observe ECB Lagarde’s remarks during the Eurogroup Meeting on Monday.

EUR/JPY recovers its intraday losses as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened following Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data showing Japan's economy returned to growth in the last quarter of 2023, thus turning away from a technical recession. The EUR/JPY cross attempts to rebound from weekly lows, trading around 160.60 during the early European trading hours on Monday.

Japan’s GDP quarter-on-quarter expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, reversing the previous decline of 0.1% but falling short of the expected 0.3% growth. Meanwhile, the GDP Annualized figure showed a reading of 0.4% growth, below the market expectation of 1.1% and the previous decline of 0.4%. Consequently, Japan’s 2-year yield surged towards 0.20%, marking the highest level since 2011. Additionally, the 10-year government bond yield rose to near 0.75%.

These GDP figures have strengthened speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could commence raising interest rates soon. BoJ policymakers are reportedly inclined towards the notion of ending negative interest rates this month, driven by expectations of substantial pay hikes in the year's annual wage negotiations.

Last week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that it is "fully possible to seek an exit from stimulus while striving to achieve the 2% inflation target." Additionally, BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa recently commented that “prospects for the economy to achieve a positive cycle of inflation and wages are in sight."

On the other side, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained borrowing costs at record levels last week, in line with expectations. ECB President Christine Lagarde adopted a cautious stance, stressing the need for further evidence before considering rate cuts. Market participants will closely watch Lagarde's remarks during the Eurogroup Meeting scheduled for Monday. Additionally, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany on Tuesday will likely attract attention from investors.

• EUR/JPY falls to 160.86, reacting to rumors of Bank of Japan possibly ending negative interest rates.
• Technical analysis indicates potential for further pullback if pair closes below the 161.31 Kijun-Sen level.
• Recovery above 161.00 could signal a rebound towards the 162.00 mark, with eyes on the March 7 high.

The EUR/JPY dives for the second consecutive day, losing 0.64% in early trading during the North American session. Rumors that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could end negative rates are growing, hence sponsoring a leg-up in the Japanese Yen (JPY) against most G7 currencies. At the time of writing, the pair exchanges hands at 160.86.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Despite posting a three-week low, the EUR/JPY is slightly tilted to the upside. Nevertheless, if sellers achieve a daily close below the Kijun-Sen at 161.31, that could pave the way for a deeper pullback. The next support would be the 160.00 psychological figures, followed by the Senkou Span B at 159.39 and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) at around 159.00/15.

On the other hand, if buyers lift the exchange rate above 161.00 and reclaim the Kijun-Sen, a leg-up toward 162.00 is on the cards. Once cleared, look for a test of the March 7 high at 162.81.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• EUR/JPY trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day around 161.85 in Friday’s early European session. 
• The cross keeps the bearish vibe unchanged below the key EMA; RSI momentum indicator supports the downside. 
• The immediate resistance level is seen at 162.30; 161.10 acts as an initial support level. 

The EUR/JPY cross remains under some selling pressure below the 162.00 psychological barrier during the early European session on Friday. The growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could remove negative interest rates this month lifts the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). At press time, EUR/JPY is trading at 161.85, down 0.16% on the day. 

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY maintains a bearish outlook as the cross holds below the 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the four-hour chart. The downward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which lies below the 50-midline, indicating the path of least resistance is to the downside.

The immediate resistance level for EUR/JPY is seen at the 100-period EMA around 162.30. The key hurdle will emerge at the 162.95-163.00 region, representing a high of March 6 and a psychological round figure. Further north, the next upside barrier is located at a high of March 4 at 163.50 and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 163.71. 

On the downside, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 161.10 acts as an initial support level for the cross. The additional downside filter to watch is a low of March 7 at 160.55, followed by a psychological round mark at 160.00. 

EUR/JPY four-hour chart

• EUR/JPY bounces from three-week low to 161.96, forming a 'hammer' pattern suggesting potential upside.
• Mixed technical indicators prompt caution, with the RSI nearing a bearish shift as the pair eyes the 162.04 Tenkan-Sen.
• Bears and bulls vie for control, with critical supports and resistances set around key psychological and technical marks.

On Thursday, the EUR/JPY registered a volatile session that saw the pair dive to a three-week low of 160.55. However, the losses were short-lived amidst the ECB’s hawkish hold, and the session finished with losses of 0.43%. As the Friday Asian session begins, the cross trades at 161.96, down 0.10%.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY formed a 230 pip ‘hammer,’ which indicates the pair is edged to the upside. However, mixed signals between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are closing to the 50-midline about to shift bearish, suggesting caution is warranted.

On the upside, the pair is capped by the Tenkan-Sen at 162.04, which, once cleared, could open the door to testing the March 7 high at 162.81, followed by the psychological 163.00 mark. Nevertheless, should bears keep the EUR/JPY from climbing above 162.00, the pair could extend its losses.

The first support would be the Senkou Span A at 161.67, followed by the Kijun-Sen at 161.31. Once surpassed, the 160.55 March 7 low emerges as the demand area, followed by 160.00.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• EUR/JPY plummets to 161.00 as the ECB keeps lending rates unchanged at 4.5% as expected.
• The ECB has revised down inflation forecasts and near-term growth projections.
• Investors see the BoJ exiting dovish rate stance sooner.

The EUR/JPY pair witnesses an intense sell-off, falling to 161.00 in Thursday’s early New York session. The asset drops as the European Central Bank (ECB) has kept its Main Refinancing Operations Rate unchanged at 4.5% for the fourth time in a row.

Market participants widely anticipated the ECB's decision to maintain a steady interest rate. ECB policymakers have reiterated that the central bank will not shift to policy normalization until it is confident that inflation will sustainably fall below the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the ECB has also released growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The ECB staff expect the economy to pick up and to grow at 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, supported initially by consumption and later also by investment. The ECB has revised down growth rate projections to 0.6% for the current year. The ECB expects that near-term performance will be subdued.

Projections for core inflation that exclude volatile energy and food prices have also been revised down to 2.6% for 2024, 2.1% for 2025, and 2.0% for 2026.

Going forward, investors will focus on the monetary policy statement from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Market participants want to know when the ECB is expected to start reducing interest rates.

The major reason behind a sharp sell-off in the EUR/JPY pair is the sheer strength in the Japanese Yen on firm Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike bets. The expectations for the BoJ exiting the negative interest rates territory rose after BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa said “prospects for the economy to achieve a positive cycle of inflation and wages are in sight.”

With speculation building again about a BoJ hike, EUR/JPY should move lower, analysts at ING say.

Time for EUR/JPY to move lower

• EUR/JPY attracts some sellers near 161.80 in Thursday’s European early session. 
• BoJ’s Ueda said it’s possible to exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy while striving to achieve a 2% inflation target.
• The ECB is anticipated to maintain the rate steady at a record 4.0%.
• The ECB Interest Rate decision and press conference will be the highlights on Thursday. 

The EUR/JPY cross drops below the 162.00 psychological mark during the early European session on Thursday. Investors will closely monitor the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate decision later in the day. The ECB is expected to hold its policy rate steady at a record 4.0%. After the March policy meeting, market players will shift their focus to the ECB press conference, which might offer some hints about inflation and the economic outlook. At press time, EUR/JPY is trading at 161.80, losing 0.62% on the day. 

On Thursday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker Junko Nakagawa said that the prospects of sustainably achieving a 2% inflation target are gradually heightening and the central bank will gather information to make monetary policy decisions despite risks and uncertainty. Additionally, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that it is fully possible to seek an exit from stimulus while striving to achieve a 2% inflation target. That being said, the hawkish comments from the Japanese authorities provide some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and exert some selling pressure on the EUR/JPY cross. 

The ECB is unlikely to cut borrowing rates before its June meeting, given that crucial wage data will only be available in May. Furthermore, the policymakers would take a cautious approach and wait for more evidence of inflation data before considering changing the policy stance. Financial markets anticipate the ECB to wait until June for a first-rate cut of 25 basis points (bps). However, the number of rate cuts will depend on the incoming data.

The ECB Interest Rate decision and press conference will be in the spotlight on Thursday, and this event might trigger volatility in the market. On Friday, the Japanese Labor Cash Earnings, Gross Domestic Product Annualized (GDP) for Q4, and Current Account will be released. 

• EUR/JPY marks third consecutive day of losses, trading near 162.70 with eyes set on crucial 162.00 support level.
• Technical analysis shows potential for rebound towards 163.00 if it breaches the Tenkan-Sen level, with higher resistance in sight.
• Sellers aiming below 162.50 could see the pair targeting 162.00 support, with further downside risks to February lows.

The EUR/JPY drops for the third straight day as Thursday’s Asian session begins, following Wednesday’s losses of 0.07%. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 162.70, down 0.05%.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY has printed a new two-day low at 162.21, but it failed to close below the March 4 swing low of 162.53, which could open the door to challenge the 162.00 figure. After bouncing off the weekly lows, the pair hovers around the Tenkan-Sen level at 162.70. A decisive breach could open the door to test the 163.00 mark, followed by the November 27 high at 163.72, followed by the 164.00 figure.

On the other hand, if sellers push the exchange rate below 162.50, they could drag the spot price toward 162.00. Once cleared, the next support would be the February 29 low of 161.68, followed by the Kijun-Sen at 160.90.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• The EUR/JPY is trading around 162.76, recording a 0.31% loss in Tuesday's trading session.
• The daily chart reveals that buyers are consolidating the last session's gains.
• Hourly indicators hint at a possible shift in trend with sellers in charge, and indicators near oversold territory.

In Tuesday's session, the EUR/JPY pair is trading at 162.76, with 0.31% losses. With a larger influence by buyers compared to sellers, the broader perspective suggests a predominant bullish trend despite the day-to-day loss as the buyers seem to be taking a breather. 

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the EUR/JPY pair is in positive territory, signaling the domination of buyers in the market but it points south. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a growing selling momentum with rising red bars which corroborates the idea of a short-term downward consolidation.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Comparatively, The hourly RSI value is indicating a negative territory, with sellers dominating the market but near the 30 threshold which could suggest that for the rest of the session, the pair may continue consolidating. The hourly MACD histogram shows flat red bars, which indicates negative momentum.

EUR/JPY hourly chart

Despite the short-term negative outlook, the EUR/JPY pair is trading above its 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Averages, indicating that the long-term trend remains bullish. The negative signals from the RSI and MACD however, are that for the short term, the sellers are in charge, but to challenge the clear overall bullish trend, they need to at least conquer the 20-day SMA.

• EUR/JPY loses momentum around 163.22 following the rise in Japanese CPI inflation data. 
• The Tokyo CPI climbed 2.6% YoY in February vs. 1.6% prior. 
• The ECB is anticipated to hold the rate steady at 4.5% at its March meeting on Thursday.

The EUR/JPY cross loses ground below the mid-163.00s during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The rise in the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February triggered speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will exit the negative interest rate regime in the coming month, which lifts the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighs on the cross lower. EUR/USD currently trades near 163.22, down 0.10% on the day. 

Data released from the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Tuesday revealed that the Tokyo CPI climbed 2.6% YoY in February from 1.6% in January. Additionally, the CPI ex Fresh Food and Energy eased to 3.1% YoY in January from the previous reading of 3.3%. The rise in price growth above the central bank’s target in February supported the case for the BoJ’s first interest rate hike since 2007. This, in turn, boosts the JPY against its rivals. 

The BoJ board member Hajime Takata hinted at a potential early move by the central bank to abandon its negative interest rate. He stated that the price aim was now within reach and it would be appropriate to change the monetary policy stance. Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a cautious view, saying that he would evaluate more data in order to confirm that a virtuous wage-price cycle is emerging.

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep the main refinancing rate steady at 4.5% at its March meeting on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that disinflation would persist but the central bank needs more evidence data before lowering the interest rate. Investors will take more cues from the press conference. A less hawkish tone could exert some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and create a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross. 

Later on Tuesday, the HCOB PMI data from Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be due. The Eurozone Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Market players will closely monitor the ECB rate decision on Thursday. These events could give a clear direction to the EUR/JPY cross. 

• EUR/JPY extends the rally near 163.15 amid the risk-on mood in Monday’s early European session. 
• Kyodo News agency reported Japanese government is considering announcing an end to deflation, raising the possibility of policy tightening.
• ECB is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at its March meeting on Thursday. 
• Japan’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday will be a closely watched event ahead of the ECB rate decision. 

The EUR/JPY cross holds above the 163.00 mark during the early European session on Monday. The risk-on environment in the market provides some support to the Euro (EUR) and creates a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross. Nonetheless, the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will shift its monetary policy stance might cap further losses of the Japanese Yen (JPY). At press time, EUR/JPY is trading at 163.15, gaining 0.26% on the day. 

A growing speculation that the BOJ will change its monetary policy path, which might lift the Japanese Yen (JPY). The BoJ policymaker Hajime Takata signaled the exit of its ultra-loose monetary policy as the central bank is on the path of achieving the 2% inflation target. Furthermore, the Japanese government is considering announcing an end to deflation, according to the Kyodo News agency. This flagged the heightened risks of policy tightening.

On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the interest rate steady at its March meeting on Thursday, as ECB policymakers want to see additional evidence that recent falls in inflation will be sustained. According to the minutes of the ECB in January, the policymakers highlighted that continuity, caution, and patience were still needed. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might raise the fear that inflation could rebound, which could delay the speculation about rate cuts from the ECB. 

Market players will keep an eye on the Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, due on Tuesday. The Eurozone Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. The attention will shift to the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday as well as the ECB Press Conference. Traders will take cues from the data and find trading opportunities around the EUR/JPY cross. 

• EUR/JPY could meet the psychological resistance at the 163.00 level following February’s high at 163.72.
• EUR/JPY cross could find immediate support at the major level of 162.50.
• 14-day RSI indicates a bullish sentiment for the cross.

EUR/JPY retraces its recent losses, trading higher around 162.70 during the Asian session on Friday, following the psychological barrier of 163.00 level. A breakthrough above this barrier could lead the cross to explore the further resistance zone around the major level of 163.50 followed by February’s high at 163.72.

Technical analysis indicates a bullish sentiment for the EUR/JPY cross. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, signaling strength in the upward momentum.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is aligned with the signal line, indicating a convergence, while remaining above the centerline. Although the MACD is a lagging indicator, this configuration suggests a subdued momentum for the EUR/JPY cross at the moment.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may encounter immediate support at the major level of 162.50, followed by the psychological level of 162.00. A breach below this support level could exert downward pressure on the pair, potentially testing the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 161.86.

Additionally, a further support zone for the EUR/JPY cross is anticipated around the major level of 161.50, with another significant support level near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 161.23.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• EUR/JPY falls 0.80% to 162.00, reacting to BoJ's hawkish comments and soft EU inflation data.
• Technical analysis indicates crucial support and resistance levels, highlighting immediate market sensitivities.
• Further decline eyed with key supports at 161.75 and 161.00, unless buyers reclaim higher resistance points.

The EUR/JPY snaps two days of gains and drops on Thursday, following hawkish remarks by a Bank of Japan (BoJ) official. That and soft inflation data from countries in the Eurozone (EU) area are driving the cross-pair price action ahead of the Wall Street close. At the time of writing, the pair exchanged hands at 162.00, down 0.80%.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The pair fell below 162.59, the Tenkan-Sen level, and slumped below the 162.00 figure, hitting a daily low of 161.68. However, the EUR/JPY recovered and reclaimed 162.00, though downside risks remain. If sellers achieve a daily close below 162.00, further weakness lies ahead. The next support would be the Senkou Span A at 161.75, followed by the 161.00 mark, and the Kijun Sen at 160.90.

Conversely, if buyers stepped in, stir resistance lies at 164.00, but firstly, they need to conquer the Tenkan-Sen at 162.59 before the 163.00 mark.

EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart