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CFD Trading Rate Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen (AUDJPY)

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  • 31.01.2024 05:57
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Extends losses to near 97.00 before the support at 23.6% Fibonacci
    • AUD/JPY could move downward toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 96.85.
    • The lagging indicator MACD suggests a tepid momentum for the cross.
    • A collapse below the 50-day EMA could lead the cross to approach the support zone near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the 96.26 level.

    AUD/JPY moves in a downward direction for the second successive day, trading lower around 97.00 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces a challenge after the softer consumer inflation data released earlier in the day.

    The immediate support appears at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 96.85 lined up with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 96.83. A firm break below the 50-day EMA could put downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross to approach the major support at the 96.50 level followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at the 96.26 level.

    The technical analysis of the AUD/JPY cross involves examining various indicators. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a lagging indicator, is below the 50 level, suggesting a selling pressure and a bearish momentum for the pair.

    On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the pair shows tepid momentum in the market. The MACD line is positioned above the centerline but below the signal line. Traders could await confirmation from the MACD indicator before determining the direction of the AUD/JPY cross.

    On the upside, the AUD/JPY cross could find the key barrier at 97.50 followed by the weekly high at 97.69. A breakthrough above the latter could prompt the upward sentiment and lead the pair to test the monthly high at 97.88 and the psychological resistance at 98.00 level.

    AUD/JPY: Daily Chart

     

  • 30.01.2024 19:52
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls defend the 20-day SMA, bears are around the corner
    • AUD/JPY currently facing minor losses, standing strong at 97.45 after hitting a low of 96.85.
    • The cross faced losses following the release of weak Australian Retail Sales figures from December.
    • Bulls display resilience but the bears are slowly building momentum.

    In Tuesday's session, the AUD/JPY pair was observed at the 97.45 level, recording mild losses but recovering from a low of 96.85 as the Aussie weakened following the release of soft Retail Sales figures. The broader outlook on the daily chart showcased bullish dominance, with the bulls determinedly holding their ground. Meanwhile, the four-hour chart indicated a rapid recovery by the buyers, reaffirming the prevalent bullish sentiment.

    Weak December Retail Sales underscore sluggish Australian economic momentum, but markets still only discount a 10% chance of a 25 bps rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February. Meanwhile, mixed labor market figures in Japan including falling unemployment rate and job-to-applicant ratio, gives little impetus for Bank of Japan (BoJ) to rush in pivoting its monetary policy, with market expectations suggesting a June liftoff.

    AUD/JPY levels to watch

    The indicators on the daily chart are indicating a subtle power of the bulls over the bears. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is displaying neutrality, situated comfortably in a positive zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) mirrors this sentiment, with green bars that remain static, neither rising nor falling. That being said, the market sentiment leans slightly in favor of the bulls due to the crosses's position against the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Hovering above the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs, the AUD/JPY displays signs of bullish dominance on a grander scale.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

  • 29.01.2024 19:31
    AUD/JPY trades with mild gains, bulls struggle to gain further ground
    • The AUD/JPY experiences mild gains, currently standing at 97.40.
    • Monetary policy divergences between the RBA and BoJ benefit the AUD.
    • Before the RBA meets next week markets will get Retail Sales from December and Q4 CPI.
    • The daily chart indicators sends mixed signals with, positive RSI a neutral MACD which suggests stagnant momentum.

    On Monday's session, the AUD/JPY was seen trading at 97.40, shedding off mild gains after peaking at a high of 97.75. The overall view on the daily chart suggests a neutral to bullish trend, however, the bulls are facing obstacles in gaining further ground. Conversely, the four-hour outlook indicates bears have started to reign in, transforming the broader aspect of the technical landscape. In that sense, markets remain cautious awaiting further data to place their bets on the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decisions.

    In that sense, RBA’s next week’s rate decision will be pivotal. Governor Bullock warned recently that inflation may take a little longer to normalize which made markets bet on a more aggressive stance so the messaging from the bank will be key. This week, Australia will release December Retail Sales figures from December, and on Wednesday, Q4 Consumer Price Index report, which may also set the pace of the AUD price dynamics.

    AUD/JPY levels to watch

    The overall view on the daily chart suggests a neutral to bullish trend, however, the bulls are facing obstacles in gaining further ground. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is painting a positive picture given its upward tilt in the positive territory, indicating a strong buying momentum persisting in the market. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing flat green bars signifies that the bullish sentiment is still dominant but that it is running out of steam. That being said, the pair’s positioning above all the 20,100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggests a bullish inclination in the broader frame, despite the bulls struggling to gain additional ground recently.

    Assessing from the short-term four-hour chart, a slightly contrary momentum is noticed. The bears seem to be gradually gaining some strength, making their presence felt. The four-hour RSI is sliding in the positive territory, indicating a potential shift towards a selling momentum, although it's in early stages. The MACD depicting flat green bars confirms that the bulls momentum is waning. Nevertheless, the subtle shift suggests that the buyers need to be cautious as the shorter time frame may be hinting towards a possible change in momentum.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

  • 26.01.2024 19:13
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls hold the fort despite closing a losing week
    • The AUD/JPY stands strong at around 97.45, flaunting a gain of 0.25%.
    • Despite the upwards movements, the cross will still close a 0.20% weekly loss.
    • An optimistic scenario is reflected in larger time frames with the pair trading above the 20,100,200-day SMAs.

    On Friday's session, the AUD/JPY was trading at 97.45, up by 0.25%. The daily chart shows a neutral to bullish sentiment, with bulls keenly holding their ground while the four-hour outlook mirrors the daily one, with a predominant bullish presence.

    The indications on the daily chart reflect a sideway move with a slight bullish inclination. A surge is suggested by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a positive slope and lies in positive space, indicating that the buying strength still holds the upper hand. Yet, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing static green bars suggests a lack of momentum for further bullish advancement. However, positioning above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) solidifies the evidence that bulls dominate in the long-run realm, even with the weekly retracement.

    The four-hour chart, it echoes a similar sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), still in positive territory and on an upward bend hints at the continued presence of bullish momentum. In the meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) laying flat with red bars could point to a short-term pullback or consolidation period. Nonetheless, the bulls' persistence indicates that the uptrend may continue in the following trading sessions, assuming that buying pressure remains.

    AUD/JPY levels to watch

    AUD/JPY daily chart

  • 25.01.2024 19:31
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls in command despite short-term lag, bears consolidate losses
    • The AUD/JPY is recording gains, standing firmly above major SMAs overall but exhibits short-term bearish sentiment.
    • Key indicators like RSI and MACD on daily chart imply ambiguity but lean towards the bullish side.
    • The four-hour chart reflects continued bearish momentum, but with bears taking a break from Wednesday’s losses.

    In Thursday's session, the AUD/JPY was spotted at 97.20, benefitting from 0.25% gains. Following a sharp 0.60% decline the previous day, sellers maintain their presence though seem to be on pause, rendering the daily chart outlook as neutral to bullish. Yet, the four-hour chart reveals persisting bearish momentum, that there may be further downside on the horizon.

    In light of the technical indicators on the daily chart, the overall tone for the currency pair is in favor of the buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) show a positive bias with an upward trajectory within a bullish territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sporting green bars indicate a flat bullish momentum. Moreover, the pair's position above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) underscores the domination of bullish traders in the broader scheme. However, it's noteworthy that despite displaying this somewhat optimistic landscape, bears seem to be taking a breather after losing more than 0.60% on Wednesday.

    Shifting focus to the shorter-time frame, the momentum appears to be siding with the sellers. This negative momentum is clearly visible in the four-hour chart, which demonstrates a downward slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI)–a sign of increased selling pressure. Despite the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing flat green bars which generally indicates bullish momentum, in this context parallel with a declining RSI, it seems to be more indicative of a temporarily stalled bearish momentum. In summary, the current technical landscape suggests bears are still persistently at play in the short-term, likely to resume their activity shortly.

    AUD/JPY technical levels

    AUD/JPY daily chart

  • 24.01.2024 19:20
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears advances after S&P PMIs, BoJ decision
    • AUD/JPY trades at 97.12 with 0.40% losses.
    • Daily chart indicators reveal sellers hold the momentum, in the immediate short term.
    • Australian S&P PMIs were weak in January while the Japanese indexes were positive.

    On Wednesday's session, the AUD/JPY finds itself trading near the 97.12 mark, registering a 0.45% decline. The currency pair's daily chart portrays a neutral to bearish outlook, with bears slowly gaining control. Meanwhile, signs of a negative stance are more pronounced as we glance at the four-hour chart. In that sense, the sellers recently gained ground on the back of the Bank of Japan’s hints on a potential pivot and positive economic figures from Japan.

    In that sense, the Australian economy, as indicated by the preliminary S&P January PMIs, seems to be on a sluggish note, as the composite PMI has been below 50 for four consecutive months. On the other hand, the Japanese economy appears to be resilient with firm January PMIs across both manufacturing and services, in addition to robust December trade data. Moreover, the JPY seems to be finding demand as the expectations for the BoJ have shifted towards a potential rate increase around mid-year, as on Tuesday’s decision, Governor Ueda hinted that inflation seems to be aligning with the bank’s goal.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    The indicators on the daily chart are currently portraying a diverse scenario. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in positive territory yet on a downward slope, there is an indication of weakening bullish momentum. Furthermore, diminishing green bars in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram reinforce this interpretation. However, the positioning above the essential Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) of 20, 100, and 200-day averages, acknowledge the dominant control of buyers over the extended trend.

    A negative outlook is more pronounced on the four-hour charts. Here, the declining slope of the RSI reveals a strong bearish undercurrent, already in negative territory aligning with the falling green bars of the MACD.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

  • 23.01.2024 07:05
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Loses ground below the mid-97.00s following BOJ's Ueda comments
    • AUD/JPY loses traction to 97.30 following the BoJ’s Ueda comments.
    • The cross keeps the bullish vibe above the key EMA.
    • The immediate resistance level will emerge at 97.76; the initial support level for AUD/JPY is seen at 97.24.

    The AUD/JPY cross loses its recovery momentum during the early European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some buyers following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech. AUD/JPY currently trades near 97.30, up 0.01% on the day.

    After the BoJ decided to maintain the policy settings and forward guidance unchanged at the January policy meeting, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the likelihood of achieving the 2% inflation target is rising gradually. He further added that the central bank must continue to monitor financial and foreign exchange market moves and their impact on prices and the economy.

    Technically, the bullish outlook of AUD/JPY remains intact as the cross holds above the 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) with an upward slope on the four-hour chart. The upward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which stands above the 50-midline, indicating further upside looks favorable.

    The immediate resistance level will emerge near a high of January 19 at 97.76. Any follow-through buying above the latter will see a rally to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 97.90. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at a high of November 28 at 98.38, followed by a high of November 24 at 98.50.

    On the flip side, the initial support level for AUD/JPY is seen at the 50-period EMA at 97.24. The key contention level for the cross is located in the 97.00–97.05 region, representing the confluence of the 100-period EMA and the limit of the Bollinger Band. The additional downside filter to watch is a low of January 18 at 96.83, en route to a low of January 16 at 96.60.

    AUD/JPY four-hour chart

     




     

  • 22.01.2024 19:58
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bearish-engulfing candle emerges, sellers eye 97.00
    • AUD/JPY's daily chart hints at a downtrend; Tenkan-Sen at 97.16 is key for bulls.
    • Breaking below 97.00 could see AUD/JPY test supports at 96.73, 96.31, 96.14, then 96.00.
    • Staying above 97.00, AUD/JPY eyes 97.88, 98.00, with further resistances at 98.58, 99.00.

    The AUD/JPY reverses its course late in the North American session amid an upbeat market mood, which usually underpins risk-perceived currencies like the Aussie Dollar’s (AUD). Nevertheless, the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision, looming, keeps the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the driver’s seat, as the AUD/JPY exchanges hands at 97.28, down by 0.42%.

    A ‘bearish-engulfing’ cancel chart pattern is emerging in the daily chart, suggesting the AUD/JPY might register a leg-down in the near term but it will find buyers at the Tenkan-Sen at 97.16, the first line of defense for bulls. If sellers take that level and push prices below the 97.00 figure, that will exacerbate further losses. The next support would be the Senkou Span A at 96.73, the Kijun-Sen at 96.31, and the Senkou Span B at 96.14. After that, sellers will encounter the 96.00 figure.

    Conversely if AUD/JPY buyers keep the exchange rate from falling below the 97.00 figure, further upside is seen at 97.88, the January 22 high, ahead of the 98.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the November 15 high at 98.58, followed by the 99.00 figure.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Technical Levels

     

  • 19.01.2024 19:44
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Surges to six-day high amid risk-on sentiment
    • AUD/JPY rises late in the session, supported by a risk-on sentiment fueled by Wall Street's advance.
    • Buyers in control as the pair surpasses 97.00, aiming for a daily close above 98.00 for further gains.
    • Despite the ascent, pullback risks persist; sellers may target levels below 97.00 for bearish momentum.

    AUD/JPY edges higher late in Friday’s North American session, sponsored by a risk-on impulse, as the advance in Wall Street could appreciate it. Therefore, safe-haven peers are pressured while US Treasury yields retrace, a tailwind for riskier assets. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY exchanged hands at 97.79, printing a new six-day high.

    The pair began the week at around the lows of the week, below the Tenkan-Sen, but the AUD/JPY exchange rate was already above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), suggesting that buyers were in charge. Consequently, they reclaimed 97.00 and, on Friday, extended its gains. Still, pullback risks remain, as buyers need a daily close above the 98.00 figure so they can remain hopeful of testing last year’s high of 98.58. Once those levels are surpassed, the next stop would be the 99.00 figure.

    For a bearish case, sellers need to drive prices below 97.00, through the Tenkan Sen at 96.97, toward the January 16 low of 96.58. A breach of the latter will expose the Kijun-Sen at 96.18, ahead of the Senkou Span B and A, each at 96.14 and 96.01.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Key Technical Levels

     

  • 18.01.2024 20:11
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Climbs above 97.00 on risk appetite improvement, buyers eye 98.00
    • AUD/JPY climbs to 97.27, fueled by positive risk appetite, despite Australia's weak jobs report.
    • Bullish technical outlook as pair surpasses Ichimoku Cloud, aiming for 97.79 resistance.
    • Downside risks for AUD/JPY below 97.00, with supports at 96.64, 96.58, and critical 96.00 level.

    The Aussie Dollar (AUD) extended its gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the second straight day as risk appetite improved, although soft jobs data from Australia might deter the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from tightening monetary policy. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY trades at 97.27, up 0.25%, on the day.

    Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the AUD/JPY is upward biased once it has broken above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), which has cleared the path to challenge the next cycle high seen at 97.79, the January 11 high. Once cleared, buyers could test the 98.00 figure, ahead of the November 24 high at 98.54.

    On the other hand, if bears drag prices below the 97.00 figure, that could open the door for further losses. The first support would be the January 17 low of 96.64, followed by the January 16 low of 96.58. The next support would be the 96.00 figure.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Key Technical Levels

     

  • 18.01.2024 03:37
    AUD/JPY extends its gains after the Aussie economic data, trades near 97.10
    • AUD/JPY moves above a key level of 97.00 after the Australian economic data.
    • Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectations and Unemployment Rate remained consistent at 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively.
    • Japanese Yen faces challenges as BoJ is expected to maintain an ultra-dovish stance.

    AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second straight session, improving to near 97.10 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the release of the economic data from Australia on Thursday.

    Consumer Inflation Expectations remained unchanged at 4.5% in January, and the seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.9%, aligning with the expectations for December. Despite these stable indicators, the Employment Change data unveiled a decline. The number of employed individuals decreased by 65.1K, contrasting with the anticipated increase of 17.6K.

    However, the modest economic data could act as a deterrent for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement any changes in monetary policy during the upcoming meeting, potentially limiting the upward momentum of the AUD/JPY pair. The RBA is projected to maintain a cautious stance, with expectations of only two rate cuts for the rest of the year.

    As of now, the current cash rate stands at 4.34%, following a 25 basis points (bps) hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) November meeting. Despite the increase,

    On the Japanese side, the recent decline in inflation rates in Tokyo and the release of weaker wage data last week have reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its ultra-dovish stance. This, in turn, is perceived as a significant factor undermining the strength of the Japanese Yen (JPY) and facilitating an upward movement in the AUD/JPY pair.

     

  • 17.01.2024 19:15
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bullish stance persists, pair holds above the 20-day SMA
    • The AUD/JPY currently trades at 96.97, gaining a marginal 0.10%.
    • Weak Chinese data weakened both the AUD and JPY.
    • Indicators on the daily chart favor the bulls.

    In Wednesday's session, the AUD/JPY was spotted at 96.97, gaining a subtle 0.10% gain, and it seems buyers remain in control with the daily chart appearing neutral to bullish and bulls proving their strength in the four-hour chart framework. On the fundamental side, both the AUD and JPY weakened during the sessions due to the report of soft Chinese economic figures, which contributed to their being the worst-performing currencies amongst their peers.

    Examining the daily chart indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) depicts a flat position within the positive territory, signifying a balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also exhibits a similar pattern, depicting flat green bars. Additionally, the pair currently sails above its 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), a potent sign of bullish dominance. This scenario suggests that despite a near-term balance in buying momentum, the broader spectrum remains favorable for the bulls, who seem to be assertively holding their ground.

    Moving onto a shorter time frame, the four-hour chart paints a picture of more evident bullish momentum. Indicators highlight the strengthening buying force, with a positive slope and territory for the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI), hinting at the continuation of the upward momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on this chart manifests flat green bars, confirming the existing bullish strength. Therefore, in this shorter time frame, there's a clear presence of buying momentum, accentuating the prevailing bullish outlook.

    AUD/JPY technical levels

    AUD/JPY daily chart

     

  • 16.01.2024 22:38
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Registers modest losses, but remains upward biased as hammer emerges
    • AUD/JPY falls to four-day low at 96.58, rebounds slightly amid weak risk appetite and Wall Street losses.
    • Technical analysis: AUD/JPY has an upward bias but faces resistance near 97.00/10; breach could lead to more gains.
    • Sellers target below 97.00, eyeing Senkou Span A and January 16's 96.58 low, with further downside to 96.00.

    The AUD/JPY printed modest losses on Tuesday, as risk appetite took its toll as worldwide central bank policymakers pushed back against rate cut expectations. Therefore, Wall Street ended the session with losses, while risk-perceived currencies, like the Aussie Dollar (USD) and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), registered losses vs. safe-haven peers. The pair is trading at 96.89 as Wednesday’s Asian session begins.

    The daily chart suggests the pair is biased upward, though refreshed at a four-day low at 96.58 before paring its earlier losses. That formed a hammer, which usually is a bullish signal, though AUD/JPY is facing stir resistance at a two-month-old downslope resistance trendline that passes at around 97.00/10, which, once cleared, could pave the way for further upside.

    In the outcome of reclaiming that level, buyers' next stop would be the January 11 high at 97.79, followed by the 98.00 figure. A breach of the latter will expose last year’s high at 98.58.

    Conversely, if sellers keep prices below the 97.00 threshold and drag the spot price toward the confluence of the Senkou Span A and January 16 lows of 96.58, they could remain hopeful of aiming toward the 96.00 figure. Though on its way toward that level, they must conquer the Kijun-Sen and the Senkou Span B convergence at around 96.18/14.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Technical Levels

     

  • 15.01.2024 21:54
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Climbs above 97.00 amid risk aversion
    • AUD/JPY's gains defy typical risk aversion impact, supported by fading expectations of BoJ policy normalization.
    • Technical indicators signal bullish trend; immediate targets include 97.79, 98.00, and November 30 high at 98.10.
    • Downside risks for AUD/JPY include potential supports at 96.41 (Senkou Span A), 96.14 (Senkou Span B), and the 96.00 level.

    The Aussie Dollar (AUD) prints gains versus the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday amid a risk aversion environment, which usually is a headwind for the AUD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, Japanese data revealed during January has brushed away the chances for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to normalize policy, meaning higher interest rates. Therefore, the AUD/JPY trades at 97.08, gains 0.27%.

    From a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY turned bullish as the Chikou Span has broken above price action in the daily chart. That, alongside the exchange rate seen above, the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), has opened the door for further gains, though traders must regain key resistance levels on their way north.

    The first supply zone would be the January 11 high of 97.79, followed by the 98.00 figure, and the November 30 mark 1t 98.10. Further upside is at 98.58, the November 15 high.

    On the other hand, if sellers would like to drag prices below 97.00. Once cleared, the next support would be the Senkou Span A at 96.41, followed by the Senkow Span B at 96.14, followed by the 96.00 figure.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Key Technical Levels

     

  • 12.01.2024 20:23
    AUD/JPY slumps further as Aussie sheds weight on the week
    • AUD/JPY extends a decline, testing back below 97.00.
    • Australian Trade Balance climbs after Imports steeply contract.
    • Aussie home lending growth falls back, Chinese CPI contracts further.

    The AUD/JPY extended declines into a second day on Friday, with the Aussie (AUD) shedding weight against the Japanese Yen (JPY) with broader markets bidding up the Yen with the AUD set to round out the week’s trading as the single worst performer of the major currency bloc.

    The AUD/JPY is set to close in the red for the fourth of the last five consecutive trading days as Australian economic data continues to miss the mark. Australian Retail Sales beat expectations on a seasonally-adjusted basis early Wednesday, helping to keep the AUD bid into the midweek, but a steep decline in Australian Imports leading to a surprise buildup in the Aussie Trade Balance swamped out AUD bulls on Thursday, wit the downtrend continuing on Friday after Australian Investment Lending for Homes declined to 1.9% MoM in November compared to October’s 4.9% (revised down slightly from 5.0%).

    China’s annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) beat market expectations on Friday, but still contracted in December compared to the same month a year prior, declining 0.3% compared to November’s -0.5% YoY decline, slipping below the median market forecast of a -0.4% contraction.

    Japan’s Current Account grew less than expected on Friday, printing at ¥1,925.6 billion in November versus October’s print of ¥2,582.8 billion. Markets were hoping for a final reading of ¥2,385.1 billion.

    Next week will see Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for January which last grew by 2.7%, as well as Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for December. Australian Securities Inflation follows closely behind, and early Wednesday will see Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales figures from China.

    AUD/JPY Technical Outlook

    The Aussie’s dip against the Japanese Yen on Friday sends the AUD/JPY falling back into the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 96.90, and the pair is at risk of further entrenching into a medium-term consolidation pattern that has plagued the AUD/JPY since November.

    Daily candlesticks have been pinned to the 50-day SMA for close to six months as the AUD/JPY struggles to develop meaningful momentum, buoyed by a 200-day SMA rotating higher into 94.50.

    The pair hasn’t claimed any meaningful territory above 98.00 despite breaking above the key handle several times since September of 2022 as bulls struggle to develop momentum.

    AUD/JPY Hourly Chart

    AUD/JPY Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Technical Levels

     

  • 12.01.2024 02:35
    AUD/JPY refreshes daily top after Chinese inflation and trade data, remains below mid-97.00s
    • AUD/JPY catches fresh bids on Friday and reverses a part of the overnight retracement slide.
    • Hopes for additional stimulus from China boosts the Aussie and lends support to the cross.
    • Dovish BoJ expectations undermine the JPY, though geopolitical risks cap gains for spot prices.

    The AUD/JPY cross attracts some dip-buying near the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 97.00 mark, and climbs to a fresh daily peak following the release of Chinese inflation figures. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-97.00s, up nearly 0.20% for the day, reversing a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the highest level since December 4.

    The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China declined for the third consecutive month, by the 0.3% YoY rate in December. Adding to this, The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, fell 2.7% YoY in December, marking the 15th straight month of drop. The data fuelled speculations that the government may announce additional stimulus to address deflationary risks.

    Furthermore, China's Customs reported that the country's 2023 exports and imports of goods were better than expected, boosting the China-proxy Aussie and assisting the AUD/JPY cross to gain positive traction. In fact, China's 2023 Yuan-denominated exports rose by 0.6% YoY, signalling that global trade is starting to recover. However, imports were down 0.3% YoY, suggesting sluggish domestic demand and adding to worries about slow economic recovery.

    Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the Israel-Hamas war benefit the Japanese Yen's (JPY) relative safe-haven status and contribute to capping the AUD/JPY cross. Any meaningful downside, however, still seems elusive in the wake of expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is unlikely to pivot away from its ultra-dovish policy stance anytime soon in the wake of the government stimulus measures following a devastating earthquake in Japan.

    The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around the AUD/JPY cross. Even from a technical perspective, spot prices have been oscillating in a familiar band over the past three weeks or so. This further makes it prudent to wait for a sustained breakout through the trading range before positioning for a firm near-term trajectory for spot prices.

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 10.01.2024 19:03
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls rally towards highs since early December, consolidation incoming
    • The AUD/JPY sees a promising rally, standing at 97.50, its highest since December 4.
    • Indicators are riding towards overbought conditions on the four-hour chart.
    • A healthy consolidation may be on the papers to correct the rally..

    On Wednesday, the AUD/JPY rallied to a high of 97.60, with bulls increasing their dominance on the daily chart. However, further upside may be limited as the four-hour indicators proceed towards overbought conditions.

    In consideration of the positioning of the key indicators on the daily chart, it is discernible that the bulls are in command. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a positive inclination within bullish territory, which indicates increasing buying power. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues its ascent, marked by swelling green bars that reinforce the ongoing bullish momentum. In addition, the overall trend also appears optimistic as the pair navigates above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

    Zooming into the four-hour chart, the short-term market momentum is leaning towards a possible overbought state. The stairway to overbought conditions is becoming increasingly visible, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrating a strong surge. Concurrently, the four-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) underscores this buying momentum with its progressively burgeoned green bars. Yet, traders should tread carefully as these overbought conditions can often precede reversals, suggesting a possible moderation of the bullish drive in the near term.

    AUD/JPY technical levels

    AUD/JPY daily chart

     

  • 09.01.2024 23:18
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Slides further inside Ichimoku Cloud stays below 97.00
    • AUD/JPY's continued downtrend reflects risk-off mood and strength in safe-haven currencies, falling 0.32% on Tuesday.
    • Market focus on upcoming US inflation data, with implications for Fed's rate path and broader market sentiment.
    • Technical analysis suggests neutral bias; key levels to watch include resistance at 97.00 and support at 96.14 and 96.00.

    The Aussie Dollar (AUD) extended its losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) for the second straight day, as risk appetite took a toll, while safe-haven currencies posted decent gains. Therefore, the AUD/JPY lost 0.32% on Tuesday, and as the Wednesday Asian session began, it traded at 96.54, down by 0.04%.

    Fundamentally speaking, traders are awaiting the release of the latest inflation report in the United States (US), which will most likely provide clues to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to lay the path for the year. Meanwhile, two policymakers crossing the wires on Monday suggested the current interest rate level is appropriate, and further easing is expected toward the end of the year.

    A higher inflation reading could trigger a repricing of a less dovish Fed by the futures market, hence shifting sentiment sour and boosting safe-haven peers. Otherwise, the AUD/JPY could edge higher.

    From a technical standpoint, the AUD/JPY is neutrally biased, though at the brisk of breaking crucial resistance levels at 97.00, followed by the confluence of a downslope resistance trendline and the 97.20 figure. Once cleared, that could open the door to challenging 98.00.

    On the flip side, if buyers fail to reclaim 97.00, that could exacerbate a drop toward the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo). But AUD/JPY sellers must reclaim the January 9 low of 96.14, followed by the 96.00 mark, and the bottom of the Kumo at 95.80. Once broken, the Kijun-Sen is up next at 96.54.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Technical Levels

     

  • 08.01.2024 22:21
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Sees minor losses, capped by Ichimoku Cloud
    • AUD/JPY drops 0.20%, hovering near Ichimoku Cloud top, as improved market sentiment doesn't dent JPY's appeal.
    • Technical setup shows a range-bound trend with immediate resistance at 97.00 and 97.39 swing high.
    • Potential downside risks include breach of 96.71 (Tenkan-Sen), targeting Kijun-Sen at 95.82 and 96.00 level.

    The AUD/JPY registered modest losses of around 0.20% on Monday despite market sentiment shifting positively, usually a headwind for the safe-haven status of the Japanese Yen (JPY). Consequently, the cross-pair is trading at 96.80, after hitting a daily high of 97.27.

    From a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY is range-bound though slightly tilted to the upside, with the pair hovering near the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), and above the Tenkan-Sen and the Kijun-Sen. Nevertheless, a breach of the former at around 96.71, could pave the way for challenging the latter just below the 96.00 figure, at 95.82.

    Given the backdrop, the AUD/JPY first resistance level is the 97.00 figure. Followed by the January 5 swing high at around 97.39. if buyers step in and push the prices above that level, up next would be the December 27 high at 97.59, followed by the 98.00 mark.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Technical Levels

     

  • 05.01.2024 21:15
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Wraps the week with solid gains above 97.00
    • AUD/JPY sees slight 0.24% increase, maintaining position near Ichimoku Cloud, signaling potential market shifts.
    • For continued upward trajectory, the pair needs to breach December's high of 97.59, eyeing 98.00 and last year's peak at 98.58.
    • Downside risks include support levels at 96.83, Tenkan-Sen at 96.71, and possible retreat to 95.90.

    The AUD/JPY is set to finish the week with gains of close to 1.20%, though it remains at the brisk of getting back inside the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), which could pave the way for a pullback. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 97.20, posting modest gains of 0.24% after hitting a daily low of 96.83.

    The cross rallied above the Kumo, opening the door for further upside, with buyers leaning on the top, with first support at 97.07. If buyers would like to drive prices higher, they need to reclaim December’s high of 97.59, which, once cleared, could pave the path toward 98.00. Once surpassed, up next would be last year’s high at 98.58.

    On a bearish resumption, AUD/JPY sellers must drag prices below 97.00, toward the first support level seen at the November 21 low of 96.83. Once surpassed, the Tenkan-Sen would be up next at 96,71, followed by 96.18, January’s 4 swing low. If bulls could not cap the downtrend, the pair could retrace the current week’s gains and open the door for additional losses below the Kijun-Sen at 95.90.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY Technical Levels

     

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