CFD Trading Rate Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen (AUDJPY)

• AUD/JPY edges lower on risk aversion as traders expect Israel to respond to Iran’s assault.
• Australian Dollar faced challenges amid apprehensions that the RBA may ease monetary tightening in the foreseeable future.
• Japanese Yen could experience an intervention as Japanese ministers noted to take necessary measures to ensure FX stability.

AUD/JPY relinquishes its recent gains, likely attributable to risk aversion as investors await Israel’s reaction to Iran’s air strike on Saturday with caution. Furthermore, the Australian Dollar (AUD) encounters obstacles amid apprehensions that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be compelled to reduce interest rates in the foreseeable future. The AUD/JPY cross trades around 99.10 during the European session on Tuesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces increased negative sentiment, which contributes to downward pressure for the AUD/JPY cross. This sentiment is driven by divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The “Financial Review” suggests that the RBA may need to ease monetary policy before the Fed. Furthermore, persistent high inflation in the United States (US), the world's largest economy, introduces uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will take action this year.

Moreover, However, the Australian Dollar pares losses after mixed data from its significant trading partner, China. This rebound may have helped to mitigate the losses of the AUD/JPY cross. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 increased by 1.6% QoQ, exceeding 1.0% prior. Annual GDP growth came at 5.3%, against the expected 5.0% and the previous reading of 5.2%. However, China's Industrial Production (YoY) in March increased by 4.5%, falling short of market expectations of 5.4% and the previous reading of 7.0%.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen might have faced challenges due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish outlook, consequently, limiting the downside of the AUD/JPY cross. The BoJ refrained from guiding future policy measures following the cessation of negative interest rates in March.

As per Reuter’s reports on Tuesday, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized the importance of currencies moving in a stable manner that reflects underlying fundamentals. He noted that authorities are closely monitoring foreign exchange (FX) movements and are prepared to take all necessary measures to ensure stability. Similarly, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated his vigilance regarding FX movements and affirmed his readiness to implement any measures deemed necessary.

• AUD/JPY extends its winning streak due to the persistent interest rate differential between Australia and Japan.
• There is uncertainty regarding the necessity for the RBA to implement rate cuts in 2024.
• BoJ’s Ueda shared his expectations of a gradual acceleration in the inflation trend.

The AUD/JPY pair continues its winning streak that began on April 4, climbing to near 100.30 during the European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains subdued as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopts a cautious approach amidst an uncertain outlook for future rate hikes.

The AUD/JPY pair may receive upward support due to the persistent gap between Australian and Japanese interest rates. Investors are increasingly skeptical about the need for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement interest rate cuts in 2024, particularly following positive US data, which has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might maintain its higher interest rate stance for a longer period.

However, investors remain vigilant amid the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the market to prevent a destabilizing decline in the domestic currency. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to address inflation and policy outlook, with expectations of a gradual acceleration in the inflation trend. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor data and information to assess whether this scenario materializes.

Governor Ueda also emphasized that one of the factors to monitor is whether pay hikes offered in annual wage talks will materialize, as reflected in actual data. Another factor is whether service prices will increase, reflecting higher wages. If the inflation trend accelerates towards the 2% target, it may become possible to reduce the degree of monetary stimulus somewhat.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to advance against the Japanese Yen, despite the subdued Westpac Consumer Confidence data released on Tuesday. The AUD is bolstered by a stronger domestic equity market, with the ASX 200 Index poised for gains as investor attention remains focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions.

• AUD/JPY appreciates due to the likelihood of RBA to avoid rate cuts.
• Australia's 10-year bond yield surged to 4.1%, marking its highest level in over a month.
• The diminished geopolitical tension could weaken the safe-haven JPY.

AUD/JPY continues to move in the positive direction, rising to near 99.90 during the European session on Monday. This rise is attributed to the appreciation of the Australian Dollar (AUD), supported by gains in the domestic equity market. The ASX 200 Index experienced upward momentum during the opening session of the week, particularly fueled by a surge in tech stocks.

Additionally, Australia's 10-year government bond yield climbed to nearly 4.1%, reaching over one-month highs. This increase follows a rally in US bond yields, driven by stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Speculation has arisen that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.

Investors are growing increasingly skeptical about the need for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates at any point throughout 2024. This sentiment has been reinforced by more positive data emerging from the US, which has strengthened expectations that borrowing costs in the world's largest economy will remain elevated for an extended period.

In the previous week, unchanged Final Retail Sales and downbeat Trade Balance data from Australia exerted downward pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD). Market participants are closely monitoring the prices of copper and oil, as further appreciation could potentially provide support for the Australian Dollar (AUD), consequently, underpinning the AUD/JPY cross.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to face downward pressure as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a cautious stance towards further policy tightening. Additionally, reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could dampen the appeal of the safe-haven JPY. Israel's decision to withdraw additional troops from Southern Gaza, likely in response to mounting international pressure, has contributed to a relaxation of tensions.

Earlier on Monday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda made remarks expressing his aspiration to simplify and enhance the clarity of the central bank's policy framework, provided economic conditions permitted. Governor Ueda made these comments while reflecting on his tenure since assuming the post approximately a year ago.

• AUD/JPY snaps its winning streak on escalated geopolitical tension.
• Iran has vowed retaliation for Israel's attack on Iran's embassy.
• Australian Dollar faces challenges after the release of mixed economic data.

AUD/JPY breaks its three-day winning streak, declining to near 99.30 during the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY), considered a safe-haven currency, strengthened as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. This dynamic contributed to the weakening of the AUD/JPY cross.

The escalation of tensions follows Iran's vow to retaliate against Israel's attack on Iran's embassy in Syria, which led to the loss of Iranian military personnel. Additionally, reports indicating heightened threats against Israeli embassies in the United States (US) by Iran have further heightened market concerns.

Additionally, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested on Friday that the central bank might adjust monetary policy if foreign exchange fluctuations significantly affect the wage-inflation cycle in a manner that cannot be overlooked. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that he is closely monitoring currency movements with a strong sense of urgency and is prepared to explore all available options to address excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Minister Suzuki also highlighted that decisions regarding monetary policy, including the timing of interest rate adjustments, fall within the jurisdiction of the Bank of Japan's Board of Directors (BOD). The government aims to collaborate closely with the BOD to consistently achieve its inflation target stably.

Following the release of unchanged Final Retail Sales and disappointing Trade Balance data from Australia on Friday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a decline. According to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia's Trade Surplus (Month-over-Month) narrowed to 7,280 million in March, falling short of the expected 10,400 million and February’s reading of 10,058 million.

The decrease in Australia's Exports by 2.2% month-over-month, in contrast to the previous increase of 1.6%, contributed to the narrowing surplus. Additionally, the nation’s Imports saw growth of 4.8%, compared to 1.3% in the previous period. Australia's Final Retail Sales remained unchanged at 0.3% in February, aligning with expectations.

• AUD/JPY trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 99.92 on Thursday. 
• The BoJ's cautious outlook and upbeat Australian data provide some support to the cross. 
• The final reading of Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI rose to 54.4 in March against 53.5 prior. 

The AUD/JPY cross extends its upside to two-week peaks around 99.92 on Thursday during the early European session. The dovish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at its March meeting and the lack of any guidance about future policy steps exert some selling pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Australia’s Trade Balance for March will be released on Friday for fresh impetus. 

The BoJ’s first interest rate hike in 17 years failed to boost the JPY as the rates in Japan remain much lower than the rest of the world. Furthermore, the expectations that the Japanese central bank will go slow in any further rate hikes and the lack of any guidance about the pace of policy normalization, weigh on the safe-haven JPY against the Australian Dollar (AUD) and create a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross. 

On the Aussie front, business activity in Australia improved further in March. The final reading of Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI rose to 54.4 in March from the previous reading of 53.5, while the Composite PMI figure climbed to 53.3 in March versus 52.4 prior. The upbeat data provides some support to the AUD amid a positive tone around the equity markets on Thursday. On the other hand, the upside of the AUD/JPY cross might be limited due to the higher possibility that the Japanese authorities will intervene in the foreign exchange (FX) market to prevent the depreciation of the JPY. 

• The daily chart presents a strong buying momentum with indicators deep in positive territory.
• On the hourly chart, the RSI resides in the overbought zone, suggesting a short-term consolidation of the recent gains.

In Wednesday's session, the AUD/JPY pair is trading at 99.58, following an increase of 0.82%. Buyers appear in control, but indicators are flashing signals of a short-term consolidation.

On the daily chart, the AUD/JPY pair reveals a bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides deep in positive territory, with recent readings reaching as high as 61, indicating the domination of buyers in the market. Furthermore, the rising green bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram show a positive momentum, supporting the bullish outlook.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Upon inspecting the hourly chart, the RSI readings consistently hover in the overbought zone, with the latest entry at 78 but the index has started to edge downwards. A flat green histogram on the MACD also gives arguments for a short-term consolidation.

AUD/JPY hourly chart

Considering the broader outlook, the pair also stands above the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This setup suggests short-term and long-term trends are bullish, and traders may expect further upside.

In conclusion, both daily and hourly charts for the AUD/JPY pair highlight a bullish outlook. The RSI values and the MACD histograms across both timelines point to strong upward movement, with buyers currently holding market reins. However, indicators on the hourly chart point to further consolidation as they lie deep in the overbought zone.

• AUD/JPY retraces its recent gains on risk-off sentiment on Wednesday.
• JPY could have received some support from the fear of intervention by Japanese authorities.
• Australian Dollar weakens as the ASX 200 Index extends losses.

AUD/JPY edges lower to near 98.70 during the European session on Wednesday. The prevailing risk-off sentiment bolsters demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY). Moreover, investors are exercising caution amidst speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the markets to prevent a notable depreciation of the Yen.

Despite this, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious approach towards further policy tightening failed to kindle bullish sentiment or generate significant momentum. Although the Japanese Yen (JPY) encountered difficulties in sustaining its strength in the current market environment.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces difficulties attributed to the decline in the ASX 200 Index, consequently exerting downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross. However, the Australian Industry Group (AiG) Industry Index displayed improvement in February, rising to a reading of -5.3 from the previous -14.9. Similarly, the AiG Manufacturing PMI recorded -7, compared to the prior reading of -12.6.

In the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) March minutes, the board indicated that they did not consider the option of raising interest rates. Despite acknowledging the uncertain economic outlook, the board perceived the risks to be generally balanced. Additionally, the board highlighted that it would take "some time" before they could express confidence in inflation returning to the target level.

Additionally, Westpac's summary of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) March meeting minutes stated the current cash rate level is deemed appropriate for the prevailing circumstances, although conditions are subject to potential changes in the future.

• AUD/JPY advances, navigating through mixed market signals and intervention concerns, marking a 0.38% increase.
• Technical indicators point to the first significant resistance at the Tenkan-Sen, with potential to test year-to-date highs.
• Downside risks remain, with support levels identified at the Kijun-Sen and the 50-day moving average.

The AUD/JPY registered gains of 0.38% on Tuesday, amid a risk-off impulse as depicted by Wall Street. US equities posted mild losses, though it was ignored by risk-perceived currencies in the FX markets, like the Australian Dollar.

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The threats of an intervention in the Forex markets to boost the Japanese Yen (JPY) by Japanese authorities, keeps traders at bay, uncommitted to open fresh long bets that could send the AUD/JPY toward the -year-to-date (YTD) high if 100.17. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) depicts that buyers are in charge.

That said, the AUD/JPY first resistance level would be the Tenkan-Sen at 99.17, followed by the YTD high. A breach of the latter will expose the psychological 100.50 mark, followed by the 101.00 mark.

On the flip side, if sellers move in and push prices below the Kijun-Sen of 98.53, that can pave the way to test 98.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 97.87, ahead of testing the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) top at 97.80.

AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• AUD/JPY gains ground on encouraging Chinese PMI data.
• Japanese Yen struggles after the expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity.
• RBA Meeting Minutes will be released on Tuesday to offer insights into the central bank's future policy direction.

AUD/JPY appreciates to near 98.80 during the European session on Monday, potentially supported by positive Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures. The close trading relationship between China and Australia likely contributes to this correlation.

Moreover, the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) may have encountered negative sentiment as investor confidence was buoyed by the first expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity in six months, observed in March.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI was reported at 51.1 on Monday, surpassing expectations of 51.0 and exceeding the previous reading of 50.9. Before that, on Sunday, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in the prior month. Additionally, the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 53.0 in March from 51.4 in February.

Former BOJ official Tsutomu Watanabe has indicated that the next rate hike in Japan might not materialize until October at the earliest. According to an assessment reported by Bloomberg (gated), Watanabe foresees the BoJ adopting a cautious, data-driven approach, primarily due to concerns surrounding Yen depreciation.

However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) might have struggled due to weaker Consumer Inflation Expectations, which could suggest expectations for interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in late 2024. Investors are anticipated to closely scrutinize the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes scheduled for Tuesday to gain insights into the central bank's stance and future policy direction.

• AUD/JPY attracts some dip-buying amid the dovish BoJ-inspired selling around the JPY.
• The initial market reaction to softer Australian consumer inflation fades rather quickly.
• Intervention fears help limit losses for the JPY and should cap the upside for the cross.

The AUD/JPY cross manages to recover a few pips from the Asian session low and currently trades just below the 99.00 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) meets with some supply after the official data showed that domestic consumer inflation rose by the 3.4% YoY rate in February as compared to expectations for an uptick to 3.5%. The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived amid growing acceptance that any potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will commence in the second half of the year. This, along with the prevalent selling bias surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), assists the AUD/JPY cross to attract some dip-buying near the 98.75-98.70 region.

Despite the historic move rate hike for the first time since 2007, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) struck a dovish tone at the end of the March meeting and stopped short of offering any guidance about future policy steps, or the pace of policy normalization. Adding to this, the BoJ indicated that it intends to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period, which continues to undermine the JPY and lends some support to the AUD/JPY cross. The upside, however, seems limited amid speculations that authorities will intervene in the markets to stem any further JPY weakness.

In fact, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that he won't rule out any decisive steps to respond to disorderly FX moves. This comes after Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda earlier this week labelled the recent moves as speculative and said that the current JPY weakness does not reflect fundamentals. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders and positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the AUD/JPY cross.

• The daily chart shows a mild bullish momentum as indicated by the RSI, whereas the MACD signals a balanced market environment.
• On the hourly chart, growing selling pressure is evident.

In Tuesday's session, AUD/JPY was seen declining to 98.95, marking mild losses. Despite the insignificant setback, neither buyers nor sellers have gained a distinct advantage, indicating potential market stability or a possible shift in direction. While signs of selling pressure are evident, the pair exhibits a strong stand over the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), signifying long-term bullish sentiment. That being said, there are signals that the sellers are present after pushing the pair down by nearly 1% last Friday.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands with a neutral slope. The flattening trend and the green bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hint that the market remains largely balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers having a distinct edge on Tuesday.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Moving onto the hourly chart, the RSI trajectory appears slightly bearish, with recent readings below 50, suggesting mounting selling pressure. The rising red MACD histogram bars further confirm the existing negative momentum.

AUD/JPY hourly chart

When assessing both charts, the short-term outlook seems to contrast with the daily chart's indications, which appear less bearish. It is evident that the bears are taking a breather following last week’s strong downward movements, but are still around the corner. However, the 1% dip seen on Friday, hasn’t affected yet the overall bullish trend.

• The daily chart reveals an overall positive trend but indicators took a big hit on Friday.
• The hourly RSI hints at a possible short-term upswing following a plunge into the oversold territory.
• The pair might side-ways trade to consolidate Friday’s movements..

The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading at 98.60, showing a substantial decrease of nearly 1%. Despite this decline, the broader trend continues to show positivity, with bulls maintaining their control. In addition, as the downward movements might be over-extended, the pair may enter a consolidation phase.

On the daily chart, the technical outlook for the AUD/JPY pair suggests a positive trend. The latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading resides in the positive territory, aligning with the recent upward momentum. Having peaked near overbought conditions earlier in the week, the RSI has now pulled back to a moderate level, pointing towards potential consolidation. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) paints a contrasting picture, showing decreasing green bars that signify a slowdown in positive market momentum.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Switching to the hourly chart, the last session's RSI plunged deep into the oversold territory, which could hint at a potential short-term correction upwards. Despite the sharp drop in the RSI, the MACD histogram displays flat green bars, implying stagnating bullish momentum on hourly timeframes.

AUD/JPY hourly chart

The next target for the sellers is the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 98.10. Below that the 100 and 200-day SMAs will act as strong supports in case the downside pressure persists but if the bulls defend this level, the overall trend will remain positive.

• AUD/JPY attracts some sellers to 98.90 in Friday’s early European session. 
• Japan’s CPI inflation data rose to 2.8% YoY in February from 2.2% in January, which remains above the BoJ’s target.
• Australia added 116.5K new employees in February, up from 15.3K in January.

The AUD/JPY cross faces some selling pressure around the 99.00 mark during the early European session on Friday. The uptick in Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighs on the AUD/JPY. Investors will take more cues from the Australian monthly CPI next week. AUD/JPY currently trades near 98.98, down 0.63%.

The recent data from the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday revealed that the nation’s CPI inflation data for February climbed to 2.8% YoY from 2.2% in January. This figure remains well above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target, boosting the JPY against the Australian Dollar on Friday. Furthermore, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose to 2.8% in February from 2.0% in the previous month, in line with market expectations. 

On the Aussie front, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that Australia added 116.5K new employees in February from 15.3K in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% in February from 4.1% in January, stronger than the market expectation of 4.0%. 

Next week, the market players will monitor the Australian monthly CPI and Retail Sales for February. On the Japanese docket, Tokyo CPI for March will be a closely watched event. Traders will take cues from these events and find trading opportunities around the AUD/JPY cross. 

• AUD/JPY nears 100.00 after strong Australian job data.
• Above Ichimoku Cloud, moving averages hint bullish trend.
• Resistance at 100.17, 101.00, with 102.84, 2014’s swing high as next target.
• Correction might pull to 99.05 and retreat deeper to 98.53, but bullish sentiment prevails.

The AUD/JPY is virtually unchanged on Thursday in late trading during the North American session. At the time of writing, the pair is 99.62 shy of the 100.00 figure after hitting a ten-year high of 100.17 on positive Aussie jobs data.

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook.

The AUD/JPY daily chart suggests the cross is upward biased, though today’s price action indicates neither buyers nor sellers are gaining the battle. The pair surged past the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), signaling a strong uptrend, reinforced by the price exchanging hands above both the Tenkan and Kijun-Sen levels.

The slope of the Senkou Span A aims higher, indicating that further upside is seen. The 100.00 figure is the key resistance level. Once cleared, the next stop would be 100.17 and the 101.00 figure. Up next would be the 2014 high at 102.84.

Nevertheless, due to an overextended market move, the potential for a mean reversion move increases. Even though a pullback to the February 23 swing high at 99.05 isn’t out of cards, the pullback could be capitalized by bulls, as the rally is set to continue. However, a deeper pullback below that level could expose the Tenkan and Kijun-sen levels at 98.53.

AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• AUD/JPY extends its winning streak on positive employment figures from Australia.
• Australian Employment Change increased to 116.5K compared to the expected 40.0K in February.
• JPY weakens on the BoJ’s indication of accommodative financial conditions.

AUD/JPY continues to extend its gains that began on March 15, trading higher around 99.90 during the European session on Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintained its upward trajectory supported by positive economic data from Australia, bolstering the AUD/JPY cross.

However, the Australian equity market moved back and forth but closed in positive territory, further reinforcing the AUD's gains. The ASX 200 Index experienced a surge, following a rally on Wall Street from the previous session.

In February, the seasonally adjusted Employment Change saw a significant surge to 116.5K, surpassing expectations of 40.0K and the previous figure of 15.3K. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate increased by 3.7%, below the anticipated 4.0% and the previous 4.1%.

Australia's private sector demonstrated resilience in March, extending its expansion for the second consecutive month. The preliminary Judo Bank Services PMI rose to 53.5 from the previous 53.1, indicating continued growth in the services sector. Additionally, the Composite PMI increased to 52.4 from 52.1, reflecting a broad-based expansion in services.

However, there was a decline in the Manufacturing PMI, dropping to 46.8 from the previous 47.8. This contraction suggests a slowdown in manufacturing activity during the same period, potentially influenced by various factors such as supply chain disruptions or weakening demand.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces losses amidst the prevailing risk-on sentiment. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently indicated that financial conditions would remain accommodative, refraining from guiding future policy steps or the pace of policy normalization.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi of Japan stated on Thursday that he is closely monitoring foreign exchange (FX) movements with urgency. He emphasized the need to closely observe the impact on both the Japanese and global economies following the Federal Reserve's decision.

• The daily chart analysis reveals consistent bullish sentiment with RSI nearing overbought conditions, indicating possible pullbacks.
• The AUD/JPY hourly chart paints a similar picture, with the RSI deep in overbought terrain.
• Even with a potential short-term bearish correction, the AUD/JPY standing above SMA shows an overall bullish trend.

In Wednesday's session, AUD/JPY is experiencing an uptake, trading at 99.62, its highest level since 2014, and showing a gain of 1.15%. Although there are hints of a short-term consolidation incoming, any downward movements could be considered as a mere technical correction.

Based on the indicators of the daily chart for the AUD/JPY pair, a positive trend is seen, as indicated by the positive territory of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI is nearing the overbought territory, signaling that while the trend is bullish, an increasing risk of a pullback due to overbought conditions is also present. In agreement with this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram also reveals a rising trend, indicated by green bars, corroborating the positive momentum.

AUD/JPY daily chart

Contrarily, on the hourly chart, the AUD/JPY pair shows a sharp move into the overbought territory, as indicated by the RSI of 78. This demonstrates that the pair might face a corrective pullback in the short term given these extreme over-extended conditions. The MACD histogram also confirms this, as it continues to print green bars.

AUD/JPY hourly chart

These observations generally point towards bullish conditions for the AUD/JPY pair in the short term but buyers might consider taking profits in the next sessions. On a broader perspective, buyers are also in command as the pair trades above the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

• AUD/JPY attracts some buyers around 98.95 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• The cross resumes its bullish outlook with the overbought RSI condition.
• The first upside barrier is located in the 99.00–99.05 region; 98.10 acts as an initial support level. 

The AUD/JPY cross gains traction below the 99.00 psychological barrier during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The decline of the Japanese Yen (JPY) to a multi-month low following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) dovish hike on Tuesday creates a tailwind for the cross. At the press time, the cross is trading at 98.95, up 0.43% on the day. 

Technically, AUD/JPY keeps the bullish vibe unchanged as the cross is above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the four-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory above the 50 midline. However, the overbought RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term AUD/JPY appreciation.

The first upside barrier for the cross will emerge at the 99.00–99.05 zone, representing a high of February 23 and a round figure. The key hurdle is seen at the psychological round mark of 100.00. Further north, the next upstate target is located near a weekly low of May 10, 2013 at 100.40. 

On the other hand, a high of March 17 at 98.10 acts as an initial support level for AUD/JPY. The next contention level to watch is the 100-period EMA at 97.85. Any follow-through selling below the latter will resume the downside and drag the cross lower to a low of March 18 at 97.65, followed by the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 97.24. 

AUD/JPY four-hour chart

• AUD/JPY retreats from over a one-week high after the RBA and the BoJ announced their decisions.
• The RBA decided to keep the benchmark rates unchanged for the third straight meeting in March.
• The BoJ ends the negative interest rates era and also scraps the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy.

The AUD/JPY cross continues with its struggle to find acceptance above the 98.00 mark and surrenders Asian session gains to over a one-week high. Spot prices drop to a fresh daily low after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced their policy decisions, albeit manage to attract fresh buyers in the vicinity of mid-97.00s.

As was unanimously expected, the Australian central bank decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at the end of the March policy meeting. The Australian Dollar (AUD), however, started losing traction in the absence of any fresh hawkish signals, though signs of improving relations between Australia and China – the former's biggest trading partner – help limit further losses.

Meanwhile, the BoJ announced lifting the interest rate by 10 basis points (bps) from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007, ending the negative interest rate era that began in 2016. The BoJ also scrapped its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting. The decision, however, was broadly in line with the market expectations and did little to influence the JPY.

Investors now look forward to the post-meeting press conference, where comments by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will play a key role in influencing the JPY price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the AUD/JPY cross. The mixed fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move.

• The AUD/JPY gave up daily gains and struggled to make a decisive upward movement.
• The hourly chart signals a shift to short-term bearish traction, with a downturn of the RSI.
• To ensure continued bullish momentum, buyers must defend the main SMAs.

On Monday's session, the AUD/JPY pair is trading at 97.71, mildly down after peaking at a high of around 98.10, near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Unless the buyers conquer this level, any upward attempt will be limited and the short-term outlook will be tilted in favor of the buyers.

Based on the indicators of the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained within the positive territory over the last several sessions, thus revealing a steady positive momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), however, reveals a less optimistic picture by displaying decreasing red bars, indicating a steady negative momentum and giving arguments for a neutral to bearish outlook.

AUD/JPY daily chart

On the hourly chart, the RSI started the day around the 61 level representing a strong momentum, gradually losing strength as the session progressed to fall into the negative territory around 42 by the American session. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, on the other hand, is increasing but remains in the negative territory, as represented by the rising red bars. Sellers seem to currently hold the reins in the hourly perspective.

AUD/JPY hourly chart

All in all, ahead of the Asian session, the sellers may continue gaining ground, and unless the buyers get a fundamental boost, they will have a hard time conquering the 20-day SMA to confirm a recovery. However, the primary task is to defend the 100 and 200-day SMAs to defen the long-term bullish outlook.