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Market news

10 February 2011
  • 19:49

    Dow -25.09 at 12214.80, Nasdaq -1.64 at 2787.43, S&P -0.83 at 1320.05

    The stock market continues to trade in a relatively tight range just below the neutral line, where it has been for the past three hours. The stock market's inability to push into positive territory stems from a lack of follow through after rallying from a steep loss in the early going. Although stocks are up nicely from their session lows, there really hasn't been any kind of leader to take stocks another leg higher. Telecom, up 0.6%, is in the best shape of any major sector, but the sector is among the smallest by market weight. In contrast, tech, which is the largest sector by market weight, is in the worst shape with its 0.5% loss following downside guidance from Akamai Tech (AKAM 40.92, -7.07) and Cisco Systems (CSCO 19.04, -3.01).
  • 19:41

    US OUTLOOK: DB says "auto sales have further room to rise, hence durables consumption has additional upside potential through yearend."

    This is due to "significant pent up demand" and "strengthening household financial positions-as a result of stronger income growth."
  • 19:20

    American focus: the dollar rose against most of its major counterparts as data in Europe and Australia showed economic growth stalling while a report in Washington signaled U.S. unemployment may be easing.

    The euro fell for the first time in four days against the dollar as U.S. jobless claims dropped to the lowest since July 2008 last week. It pared the slide as U.S. stocks trimmed losses on speculation Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down. Australia’s dollar slumped after an unexpected drop in full-time employment. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said he saw improving confidence in the U.S. economy.

    “We had a lot of disappointment in economic data overnight, and that has contributed to the risk aversion you see in the market,” Kathy Lien, director of foreign-exchange research at online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “Based on the latest jobless report, the Fed has less to worry about and investors have a stronger reason to buy into the U.S. recovery story.”

    The greenback trimmed its advance amid speculation Mubarak will meet protestors’ demand to step down. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.1 percent after earlier falling 0.7 percent. Mubarak will decide “within hours” whether to resign, Cabinet spokesman Magdi Rady said in a phone interview.

  • 18:34

    US OUTLOOK: Pierpont Securities economist Steve Stanley says mkt is ready to move beyond QE2 but notes it could be locked in through June.

    "Chairman Bernanke and company are slowly but surely getting to the right assessment of things. They see that the economic outlook is improving, that deflation fears have receded, and that the extraordinary step of QE2 is less and less necessary."
  • 16:52

    Nomura on US data

    Nomura says recent jobless claims volatility "primarily reflected weather and seasonal adjustment problems. Claims may also have been moderately depressed this week due to storms, and could correct higher in next week's report. Nevertheless, looking through the week-to-week volatility, claims appear to be trending lower."

  • 16:21

    Dow -33.08 at 12205.79, Nasdaq -6.78 at 2782.28, S&P -2.74 at 1318.07

    Though they were a bit slow to arrive, buyers have stepped in to provide a supportive bid that has helped stocks pare their losses.
    Overall declines among the major equity averages are now modest. Despite the improved tone, materials stocks make up the only major sector that has made a move into positive territory. As a group materials stocks are up 0.3%.
    Among materials plays, steel stocks are particularly strong. They are up 1.3% after dropping 2.4% in the prior session. AK Steel (AKS 15.79, +0.27) is a primary leader in the pack.

  • 15:33

    Dow -70.50 at 12169.39, Nasdaq -23.39 at 2765.68, S&P -7.40 at 1313.48

    Sellers are still in control. So far there hasn't been any sign that participants want to buy the pullback.
    The greenback continues to gain ground against a collection of competing currencies. It is now up 0.8%, which puts it in close reach of the two-week high that it set this past Monday.
    Monthly wholesale inventory data were just released, but no real reaction has been made to the report. Overall inventories for December increased 1.0%, which is a sharp increase from the flat figure that was reported for the prior month.
    Declining Sectors: Tech (-1.1%), Consumer Staples (-0.7%), Financial (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.4%), Industrials (-0.4%), Energy -(0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.3%), Materials (-0.2%), Utilities (-0.1%)

  • 15:04

    UK, NIESR: GDP Estimates Suggest Output Gap Widening

    UK Nov-Jan GDP -0.1% Vs -0.5% In Oct-Dec

  • 15:01

    US: Dec wholesale inventories +1.0%, sales +0.4%

  • 14:57

    CS says snow skewed the jobless claims data and they "would not be surprised to see a spike next week as a result."

  • 14:15

    Before the bell: Stocks poised to ease lower

    U.S. stocks were headed for early losses Thursday, as investors responded to disappointing quarterly reports from Cisco Systems, PepsiCo and Credit Suisse.


    On Wednesday, the Dow inched higher for an eighth straight session of gains. But the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished lower, as investors took a breather from their recent streak.

    Companies: Shares of Cisco Systems (CSCO) slipped 8% in premarket trading after the network equipment maker posted a quarterly profit late Wednesday that fell from year-earlier results, although they beat Wall Street's forecasts.
    Credit Suisse (CS) was under pressure after the financial services company reported quarterly results that disappointed investors. The bank's asset management division also adjusted its target for return on equity this year, citing the "new regulatory environment." U.S.-listed shares were down 5% ahead of the opening bell.
    PepsiCo (PEP) said fourth-quarter earnings fell 6% to 85 cents per share and issued a disappointing outlook.
    Whole Foods was up almost 10% in premarket trading after the grocery chain reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its sales and earnings outlook for the year.
    Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Philip Morris (PM) to report earnings per share of 96 cents on revenue of $7.27 billion.
    After the closing bell, analysts expect Kraft Foods (KFT) to report earnings per share of 46 cents on $13.47 billion in revenue.
    Economy: A weekly government report showed that the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 383,000 last week -- the lowest number in two-and-a-half years.
    World markets:

    Oil for March delivery slipped 40 cents to $86.30 a barrel.
    Gold futures for April delivery fell $8.10 to $1,357.30 an ounce.
    The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was steady, leaving the yield unchanged from Wednesday at 3.64%.

  • 13:57

    WEBER: Solutions to debt crisis must be tailored to each state

  • 13:38

    USD/JPY keeps positive mood

    Chewing up exporter offers amongst others to a high of Y82.88 and taking out some stops in the process. Recent talk of some large stops Y82.90/00, ahead of bids on approach to Y83.15/20.

    /
  • 13:31

    US: Initial jobless claims -36k to 383k in Feb. 5 wk

  • 13:07

    WEBER: Most of the crisis is behind us

    • Current direction is good;
    • Macroeconomic fine tuning is doomed from beginning.
  • 13:06

    EU session review: Dollar advances as drop in stocks encourages demand for safety

    Data released
    09:30     UK     Industrial production (December)    0.5%    0.9%    0.4%
    09:30     UK     Industrial production (December) Y/Y    3.6%    4.1%    3.3%
    09:30     UK     Manufacturing output (December)    -0.1%    0.3%    0.6%
    09:30     UK     Manufacturing output (December) Y/Y    4.4%    5.3%    5.6%
    12:00     UK     BoE meeting announcement    0.50%    0.50%    0.50%

    The dollar rose as global stocks declined, boosting demand for the safety of the world’s main reserve currency.
    The euro dropped for the first time in four days versus the greenback on speculation Bundesbank President Axel Weber’s exit from the race to succeed European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet will delay an attempt to contain inflation by boosting borrowing costs.
    Weber would leave his job as president of the German central bank about a year before his term expires in April 2012, said the person who talked to him yesterday. Weber’s resignation would open the field to replace Trichet as head of the world’s second-most-powerful central bank.
    “He’s by far the most outspoken hawk on the ECB, so on the margin this probably reduces the likelihood of more aggressive rate rises moving forward,” Todd Elmer, the currency strategy at Citigroup Inc., said.
    The euro weakened versus the dollar as a person said yesterday on condition of anonymity that Weber plans to step down this year.
    The pound remained lower against the dollar as the Bank of England maintained emergency stimulus.
    Sterling dropped as the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee left its bond program at 200 billion pounds ($321 billion) and kept the benchmark interest rate at a record low 0.5%.

    EUR/USD fell to $1.3610 low in Europe before set stable within the $1.3610/55 range.

    GBP/USD fell to $1.6020 after the BOE rate decision, but then recovered to $1.6055/60.

    USD/JPY rose to Y82.80 from Y82.50. Offers ahead of Y83.00.


    US data starts at 1330GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 5,000 to 410,000 in the February 5 week after sharp movements in January.
    US data continues at 1500GMT with Wholesale Inventories.

  • 12:55

    WEBER: Crisis in periphery not necessarily due to fin crisis

  • 12:53

    WEBER: Heterogenity in EMU is no problem for monetary policy

  • 12:53

    WEBER: Will act if we have to, but future will show us that

  • 12:50

    WEBER: Germany GDP will reach pre-crisis level by year's end

  • 12:39

    WEBER: Higher energy costs should be temporary

  • 12:39

    WEBER: Higher energy costs should be temporary

  • 12:38

    WEBER: Recent increase in inflation surprised us somewhat

  • 12:38

    WEBER: Recent increase in inflation surprised us somewhat

  • 12:20

    React on BOE rate decision:

    GBP/USD fell to $1.6020 on the reaction to unchanged rate decision from the BOE but quickly recovers to $1.6045. Later rate extended its rise up to $1.6067 before bacj to current $1.6050/53.

  • 12:01

    BOE: Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at stg200 billion.

  • 11:18

    EU focus: Inflation surge raises outside risk of BoE rate hike

    Financial markets see a one-in-five chance that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from their record low 0.5% later on Thursday. The BoE must choose whether to hold fire to support growth at a time when Britain's recovery still looks patchy, or act now to reduce the risk that an imminent spike in inflation will turn into something more permanent.

    Data earlier on Thursday showed British factory output fell unexpectedly in December, chiming with recent shock data showing the economy contracted in the fourth quarter of last year.
    On the other hand, figures next week are likely to show inflation hit 4% in January, and economists believe it will go higher still.
    "The MPC is coming under intensive pressure to raise rates," Bank of America/Merrill Lynch interest rate strategist John Wraith wrote.
    Last month the BoE surprised markets when new MPC member Martin Weale joined long-standing hawk Andrew Sentance to call for a rise in rates to 0.75% from a record low 0.5%, and other MPC members said their decision was "finely balanced".
    Inflation has exceeded the BoE's 2% target by at least a percentage point for over a year. On Jan. 25, BoE Governor Mervyn King predicted it could near 5% in the coming months.
    But King said inflation remained on track to return to target early next year.
    The tension between high current inflation and the BoE's official forecast that it will be well below target in barely a year's time lies at the heart of the split between money market and economists' views of likely BoE policy.
    Money markets see almost a 20% chance of a rate rise at 1200 GMT on Thursday and a near certainty of a move by May.
    By contrast, fewer than a third of economists polled by Reuters last week expect rates to rise before the final three months of this year.



  • 11:14

    BINI SMAGHI: ECB's ability to assure price stability still unimpaired

    • price stability maintained during and after crisis
    • EFSF, EFSM must have enough resources, flexbility
    • Common bond issues may not be needed for fin integration
  • 11:13

    BINI SMAGHI: ECB's ability to assure price stability still unimpaired

    • price stability maintained during and after crisis
    • EFSF, EFSM must have enough resources, flexbility
    • Common bond issues may not be needed for fin integration
  • 10:41

    AUD/USD recovers

    AUD/USD fell through $1.0040 and tested tech support at $1.0033 (50% $0.9866/1.0201 move). Further support $1.0015/20. Low print so far $1.0034 with
    spot currently $1.0052.

  • 10:20

    GBP/USD rises

    GBP/USD rises after session lows of $1.6028. Rate back above $1.6060 again as renewed selling from model accounts in euro sterling gives cable a boost. Spot now $1.6062/65.

  • 10:02

    IEA Oil Market Report: Sees 2011 global oil demand at 89.3 mbd, up 1.7% from 2010

    • IEA hikes OECD oil demand by 90 kbd in 2011, 46.0 mbd on avg
    • IEA sees 2011 non-oecd oil demand at 43.2 mbd, up 3.7% y/y
    • IEA:jan global oil supply up 500 kbd m/m to 88.5 mbd
    • IEA: non-OPEC supply outlook for 2011 up 100 kbd to 53.5 mbd

     

  • 09:33

    UK: Dec industrial production +0.5% m/m; +3.6% y/y

  • 09:31

    UK: Dec manufacturing output -0.1% m/m; +4.4% y/y

  • 09:23

    GERMANY VDMA: Sees 2011 real machine output up 10%; 2010 +8.8%

    • Germany Dec machine orders +44% y/y; Nov +43%; Oct +32%
    • Dec domestic machine orders +38% y/y; foreign orders +46%
    • Dec orders EMU ex Germany +29% y/y
    • 4Q total orders +40% Y/Y; domestic +29%; foreign +45%
    • 4q orders EMU ex Germany +23%
    • 2010 real total orders +36% y/y; dom +29%,foreign +39%
    • 2010 real total orders EMU ex Germany +22% y/y
  • 09:11

    Asian session: The dollar rose

    Data:
    0:30 Australia Employment Change 24.0K
    0:30 Australia Unemployment Rate 5.0%

    The dollar rose toward a two-week high against the yen before U.S. reports forecast to show jobless claims fell and consumer confidence improved, boosting demand for assets in the world’s largest economy.
    Australia’s dollar fell for a second day after a government report showed full-time employment dropped in January, spurring concern the economy is growing too slowly to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates.
    The so-called Aussie weakened as swap traders reduced expectations for how much borrowing costs will rise over the next year.

    EUR/USD: the pair decreased below a mark $1.3700.
    GBP/USD: the pair bargained in the field of $1.6100. Decreased later.
    USD/JPY: the pair become stronger in around Y82.70.
    UK data at 0930GMT sees industrial production and manufacturing output data, where IP is expected to rise 0.6% m/m, 3.9% y/y and manufacturing output rise 0.5% m/m, 5.5% y/y. However, the main event is due at 1200GMT, the Bank of England makes it's policy statement. The survey of 31 economists also predicted the bank rate to end the year at 1.0%. 
    US data starts at 1330GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 5,000 to 410,000 in the February 5 week after sharp movements in January. US data continues at 1500GMT with Wholesale Inventories as well as the weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks at 1530GMT. Late US data at 1900GMT is expected to see the US Treasury post a $60.0 billion budget gap in the January tax month, compared with the $42.6 billion gap in January 2010. Data concludes at 2030GMT with the weekly US M2 Money Supply data.

  • 08:54

    FOREX: Wednesday's review

    The dollar fell for a third day against the currencies of major U.S. trade partners as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the unemployment rate is likely to remain high “for some time.”
    The euro extended an advance, rising against all of its 16 most-traded counterparts, as Bernanke told the House Budget Committee that high U.S. unemployment will persist even after the biggest two-month drop in the jobless rate since 1958. 
    Bernanke and the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee are waiting for further proof of a durable pickup in the job market as they press forward with their plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities to spur the pace of recovery. In a Jan. 26 statement, policy makers said the recovery “has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions.”
    U.S. unemployment dropped to 9% last month, the lowest level since April 2009, a report showed on Feb. 4. It fell to 9.4% in December, from 9.8% in November.

    EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger above a mark $1.3700.
    GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6030-$ 1.6130.
    USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82.20-Y82.70.

    UK data at 0930GMT sees industrial production and manufacturing output data, where IP is expected to rise 0.6% m/m, 3.9% y/y and manufacturing output rise 0.5% m/m, 5.5% y/y. However, the main event is due at 1200GMT, the Bank of England makes it's policy statement. The survey of 31 economists also predicted the bank rate to end the year at 1.0%. 
    US data starts at 1330GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 5,000 to 410,000 in the February 5 week after sharp movements in January. US data continues at 1500GMT with Wholesale Inventories as well as the weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks at 1530GMT. Late US data at 1900GMT is expected to see the US Treasury post a $60.0 billion budget gap in the January tax month, compared with the $42.6 billion gap in January 2010. Data concludes at 2030GMT with the weekly US M2 Money Supply data.

  • 08:48

    Stocks: Wednesday's review

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell for the first time in four days, as machine makers slid after China’s central bank increased interest rates. Toyota Motor Corp. advanced after raising its profit forecast.
    Komatsu Ltd., an earthmover maker that gets about 22 percent of its sales from China, slid 1.7 percent.
    Kubota Corp., Asia’s largest tractor maker, sank 1.8 percent to 882 yen. Toshiba Machine Co., a machine-tool maker which gets about 35 percent of its revenue from Asia, dropped 4.5 percent. TDK Corp., an electronics maker that counts China as its largest market, fell 0.9 percent to 5,860 yen.
    Mitsubishi Estate Co., Japan’s No. 2 developer, slid 1.8 percent after an office brokerage said Tokyo vacancy rates rose in January. Yokogawa Electric Corp., a maker of electronic measuring tools, tumbled 11 percent after saying it will not pay a dividend. Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, jumped 5.2 percent, leading carmakers higher.

    European stocks fell after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed yesterday near its highest level since 2008.
    Sanofi-Aventis SA slipped after saying earnings per share will drop this year. Statoil ASA retreated after it reported lower-than-estimated fourth-quarter profit and said production may fall this year. London Stock Exchange Group Plc soared 3.1 percent after agreeing to buy Toronto Stock Exchange owner TMX Group Inc.
    Sanofi retreated 1.5 percent to 50.37 euros. The French drugmaker trying to take over Genzyme Corp. said business earnings per share will drop 5 percent to 10 percent this year.
    Trading in shares of NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Boerse AG was halted after the companies confirmed Deutsche Boerse is in advanced talks to buy NYSE Euronext in an all-stock transaction that would create the world’s biggest equity exchange.
    Syngenta AG advanced 4.4 percent to 320.5 francs. The world’s biggest maker of agricultural chemicals reported annual profit that beat analyst estimates and pledged to return $850 million in cash to shareholders. 

    Action was largely listless all session. That left the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to muddle along and log modest losses. However, the Dow eked out a slight gain in the final few minutes to score its eighth straight advance.
    Stocks traded in choppy fashion for the first part of the session as participants appeared content to let stocks find their own direction, rather than continue to chase the tape. Some opted to take profits when the S&P 500 failed to push through resistance at the neutral line, but selling never became overly intense. That made it possible for the Dow to recover for another gain.
    The Dow spent most of the session narrowly in front of its counterparts. Disney (DIS 43.36, +2.18) provided it with support following an upside earnings surprise that took the stock to a record high.
    Fellow blue chip Coca-Cola (KO 63.15, +0.28) reported in-line earnings results. Its shares gapped up at the open, but drifted off of that mark throughout the session.
    The broader market was generally unenthused by the pair's earnings. Merger and acquisition activity also had little influence on trade. The latest deal-making includes plans of the London Stock Exchange to acquire TMX Group, which is the owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, for $3.2 billion. On a similar note, Deutsche Borse and NYSE Euronext (NYX 39.17, +5.76) confirmed that they are discussing a potential business combination.
    Fed Chairman Bernanke offered no new insight into macro conditions during his testimony to the House Budget Committee. Consistent with the recent FOMC policy statement, he noted that the economic recovery appears to have strengthened in the past few months, although the unemployment rate remains high.

  • 08:20

    Swiss Jan CPI -0.4% On Month, +0.3% On Year

  • 08:13

    Tech on USD/JPY

    Resistance 3:Y83.70 (Jan 7 high)
    Resistance 2:Y83.20 (Jan 27 high)
    Resistance 2:Y82.85 (resistance line from Jan 7)
    Current price: Y82.67
    Support 1:Y82.20 (Feb 9 low)
    Support 2:Y81.80 (Feb 8 low)
    Support 3:Y81.30/10 (Feb 1 and 4 low)


    Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance - Y82.85. Above growth is possible to Y83.20. The nearest support Y82.20. Below losses are possible  to Y81.80.

  • 08:12

    Tech on USD/CHF

    Resistance 3: Chf0.9690 (Jan 21 high)
    Resistance 2: Chf0.9660 (Feb 9 high)
    Resistance 1: Chf0.9600 (session high)
    Current price: Chf0.9597
    Support 1: Chf0.9550 (Feb 9 low)
    Support 1: Chf0.9520 (Feb 8 low)
    Support 3: Chf0.9490 (50.0 % FIBO Chf0,9330-Chf0,9690)
    Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance Chf0.9600. Above is located Chf0.9660. The nearest support Chf0.9550. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9520. 

  • 08:05

    Tech on GBP/USD

    Resistance 3: $ 1.6275/00 (Nov 4 and  Feb 3 high)
    Resistance 2: $ 1.6180 (Feb 7 high)
    Resistance 1: $ 1.6110 (resistance line from Feb 7)
    Current price: $1.6096
    Support 1 : $1.6030 (Feb 4, 8 and 9 low)
    Support 3 : $1.5920 (38.2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280)
    Support 3 : $1.5820/10 (50.0 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280, Jan 31 low)
     
    Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest resistance - $1.6110. Above growth is possible to $1.6180. The nearest support - $1.6030. Below is possible testings of around $1.5920. 

  • 07:50

    Tech on EUR/USD

    Resistance 3: $ 1.3860 (Feb 2 high)
    Resistance 2: $ 1.3770 (Feb 2 low)
    Resistance 1: $ 1.3745 (Feb 9 high)
    Current price: $1.3693
    Support 1 : $1.3680 (МА (200) for Н1)
    Support 2 : $1.3610 (Feb 9 low)
    Support 3 : $1.3570 (Feb 8 low)
    Comments: the pair has receded from the high reached yesterday. The nearest resistance - $1,3745. Above growth is possible to $1,3770. The nearest support - $1,3680. Below  decrease is possible to $1.3610.

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