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Market news

8 February 2011
  • 19:21

    Dow +43.59 at 12205.22, Nasdaq +2.47 at 2786.46, S&P +2.28 at 1321.33

    Although stocks continue to chop along narrowly above the neutral line, the overall tone of trade remains broadly positive. As such, only energy (-0.8%) and utilities (-0.2%) are in the red.
    Retailers are exceptionally strong. The group has put together a 1.0% gain. Gap (GPS 20.79, +0.45) is a leader in the group. Urban Outfitters (URBN 36.80, +1.69) is also up sharply.

  • 19:00

    Oil trading lower again after a earlier bounce, is down $0.66 at $86.82 and in the lower reaches of the day's $85.88/88.11 range.

  • 18:25
  • 18:04

    American focus:

    The dollar dropped against most of its major counterparts as China’s interest-rate increases failed to quell investors’ appetite for higher-yielding assets.
    The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 6.06% from 5.81%, effective tomorrow, the People’s Bank of China said on its website today. The one- year deposit rate will rise to 3%, from 2.75%.
    “The move by the Chinese was fairly expected, and the currency market is pretty unfazed and is taking it in stride so far,” said Fabian Eliasson, head of U.S. currency sales at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. in New York. “The euro is up from yesterday as you’re seeing a calmer situation in Egypt, and that’s certainly helping the euro. The overall global situation is better.”
    Higher consumer spending, along with business investment in equipment and software, point to U.S. growth this year of “pretty close to 4%,” Lacker said today in a speech in Newark, Delaware.
    Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies tomorrow at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.
    Sterling dropped after the U.K. increased a levy on bank balance sheets.

  • 17:24

    DB "are marking up our full year 2011 real GDP forecast as measured on a Q4 over Q4 basis by one full percentage point to 4.3%."

    They say despite Jan's bad weather, "the labor market is finally gaining significant traction. This is apparent from the rare 0.8% decline in the unemployment rate over the past two months." So their year-end unemployment rate forecast is now 7.8%, down from previous est 8.8%.  Also should see "significantly more inventory accumulation this qtr" and  strengthening demand.

  • 16:21

    Dow +25.16 at 12186.79, Nasdaq -0.57 at 2783.79, S&P +1.59 at 1320.64

    The headline equity averages are stuck in a fit of choppy trade, but financials have made a strong swing to higher ground in recent action. Financials had been down markedly in the early going, but the sector is now up 0.6%, which puts it comfortably out in front of the broader market.
    Within the financial sector, AIG (AIG 42.86, +0.70) shares got a recent lift from news that the company will delay its planned secondary offering. Principal Financial Group (PFG 32.51, -1.19) has had a hard time attracting support, however. The firm posted an earnings miss for its latest quarter.

  • 15:17

    Dow +13.28 at 12174.94, Nasdaq +1.06 at 2785.05, S&P -0.18 at 1318.87

    The broad market has recovered from a slip at the open, but it has taken pause near the neutral line. Meanwhile, the Dow has pushed into positive territory with help from McDonald's (MCD 75.45, +2.00) after the company reported this morning that its global sales during January gained 5.3%. The geographic mix that drove that number included a 3.1 increase in U.S. sales, a 7.0% increase in Europe, and a 5.2% increase in the Asia, Middle East, and Africa region.
    Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.3%), Tech (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.1%), Financials (+0.1%) Declining Sectors: Energy (-1.0%), Utilities (-0.2%), Telecom (-0.1%), Materials (-0.1%

  • 14:51

    UK OSBORNE: Latest UK survey data more encouraging

    • Q4 data were disappointing; surveys encouraging
    • Recovery from recession always going to be choppy
  • 14:51

    UK OSBORNE: Latest UK survey data more encouraging

    • Q4 data were disappointing; surveys encouraging
    • Recovery from recession always going to be choppy
  • 14:41

    AUD/USD recovers

    AUD/USD lifted off earlier lows of $1.0114 as Gold rallys $14 higher to a high of $1365.50. Aussie initially spiked to $1.0157, before easing back around $1.0147.

  • 14:26

    OPTIONS: expiries for the 1500GMT cut

    USD/JPY Y81.15, Y82.00, Y82.25, Y84.00, Y84.05, Y84.40, Y85.20
    EUR/JPY Y111.95, Y112.60
    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3515, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3775. $1.3800
    GBP/USD $1.5840
    AUD/USD $1.0000, $1.0120, $1.0300
    USD/CHF chf0.9650
  • 14:14

    Before the bell: Stocks poised for a soft open

    U.S. stocks were set to open toward the down side Tuesday after China's central bank raised key rates for the third time since October.
    The People's Bank of China announced Tuesday that it would raise bank's borrowing and lending rates by a quarter percentage point. The rate change will go into effect Wednesday. The move comes as Chinese policymakers look to gradually cool the nation's robust economy, and avoid a hard landing.
    Stocks in Europe turned mixed, and oil prices fell after the announcement.


    The deals of the day included AOL's (AOL) acquisition of news blog The Huffington Post for $315 million, and a merger between oil drillers Ensco (ESV) and Pride International (PDE).
    Companies: Toyota issued an upbeat financial forecast with three months left in the fiscal year, but the automaker said sales were sluggish in the third quarter.
    Toyota (TM) said net income fell to $1.1 billion from $1.87 billion, a 38.9% drop compared to the third quarter of last year.
    Shares of Avon (AVP, Fortune 500) fell 3% in premarket trading after the beauty products company said fourth-quarter earnings fell to 50 cents per share from 62 cents a year earlier.
    Shares of Akamai Technologies (AKAM) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) were higher following analyst upgrades.






  • 13:58

    GOLD:

    Breaking higher now with stops taken out on the move through $1360 and the 100 day moving average around $1362. The metal has just stalled at $1365.50 and currently trades around $1361.50. Next near term target is $1371.35 the high of Jan20.

  • 13:32

    Canada: Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jan) 170.4K

  • 13:25

    GBP/USD weakens

    GBP/USD dipped to  a day's low of $1.6069 after triggering bids and stops on $1.6080. Cable trades $1.6070.

  • 13:06

    EU session review: Dollar depreciates on Asian stock gains

    Data released
    11:00     Germany     Industrial production (December) seasonally adjusted    -1.5%    -0.1%    -0.6 (-0.7)%
    11:00     Germany     Industrial production (December) not seasonally adjusted, workday adjusted Y/Y    10.0%    12.9%    11.1%

    The dollar fell against higher-yielding currencies as Asian stocks gained and U.S. equity futures fluctuated.
    The U.S. currency stayed lower after China raised key interest rates by 25 basis points.
    The greenback slid before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies tomorrow at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.
    Fed Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher said yesterday he’s unlikely to support further monetary accommodation and he’ll vote against any new quantitative easing beyond the $600 billion program of Treasury purchases.
    A government report last week showed the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 9% in January from 9.4% the previous month.
    The pound weakened after the U.K. increased a levy on bank balance sheets. South
    The pound slipped against 14 of its 16 most actively traded counterparts as U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne increased a tax on banks’ balance sheets to raise an extra 800 million pounds ($1.3 billion) as he continues to negotiate lending targets and curbs on pay.
    The euro stayed higher against the majority of its most-traded peers after the National Federation of Independent Business said German industrial production unexpectedly contracted in December. The gauge fell 1.5%, compared with a median estimate for a 0.2% gain.

    EUR/USD fell to a session lows at $1.3590 before recovered to $1.3660, where offers were mentioned. Later rate retreated to $1.3642.

    GBP/USD weakened from $1.6160 to $1.6080, where bids are.

    USD/JPY trades within the Y82.00/Y82.30 range.

    Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jan) 171.0K 171.5K

  • 12:28

    EUR/USD resumes decline

    EUR/USD resumes decline after testing $1.3660 where offers were mentioned. Stops reportedly placed on a break at $1.3680 (Fri high) but meanwhile contesting offers above $1.3660. Spot trades $1.3638.

  • 12:10

    OIL:

    The Chinese rate hike from the PBOC sent the March Nymex WTI oil price through the 100 day MA at $86.99 to $85.85 support before bouncing back towards $86.50. Support remains at $85.85 and $84.21 with resistance at $86.99 and $87.48. the focus is on the API Inventory data tonight and the DOE report tomorrow.

  • 11:52

    EU focus: Euro edges up off 2-week low

    The euro edged off a two-week low on Tuesday but lacked momentum after a drubbing the previous day when weak German industrial data further dampened expectations for a near-term euro zone rate hike.
    Surprisingly weak German industrial orders data for December had triggered selling of the euro, although analysts said the soft figures partly reflected a strong reading in November.
    But the single currency was holding above major supports, including $1.3535, which had been a key resistance level in late January and is its 100-day moving average, as well as $1.3480, a 38.2 percent retracement of its January-February rally.
    "I think the euro will be supported but it will need a dose of hawkishness from the European Central Bank to rise," said Koji Fukaya, chief FX strategist at Credit Suisse.

    Last week, the euro started descending from a 12-week high of $1.3862 after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet doused expectations for an imminent rate increase, saying inflation would remain contained. That was followed by an unexpected fall in the U.S. jobless rate, which sparked a rise in U.S. debt yields, further helping the dollar against the euro.
    Still, traders are reluctant to buy the dollar aggressively after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that the U.S. economy still needs the Fed's help - a stance many traders expect him to repeat when he speaks on Wednesday.
    "The market seems to be in limbo. I don't think Bernanke's comments will change that," said a trader at a Japanese brokerage.
    One currency that is benefiting from expectations of an early rate hike is the British pound, as chances of an early rate hike still smouldered ahead of the Bank of England's policy announcement on Thursday.
    Financial markets are expecting a BoE rate hike by May, with a small chance of a hike this week priced in, but analysts' expectations are quite different with many not expecting one until the end of the year.

  • 11:43

    AUD/USD gets a sharp kick down following the PBOC announcement from $1.0175 to a low of $1.0131. rate currently holds near $1.0145.

  • 11:28

    GOLD TECHS:

    Daily studies bullish as gold moves above the 21-DMA at $1351.80 but remains in rising channel trend drawn from Jan 28. The 5-DMA suggests possible upcoming golden-cross of 21-DMA adding risk to the upside. Resistance seen from the 100-DMA at $1362.40, the former 23.6% Fibonacci level at $1366.30 and the 55-DMA and rising channel top at $1373.8/1376.4. Initial support seen from the 5-DMA at 1347.90.

  • 11:01

    Germany: Dec Real SA Industrial Output -1.5% M/M

  • 10:57

    CHINA: PBOC raises one-year lending rate by 25bps

    • PBOC raises one-year deposit rate by 25bps
    • Rate hike effective from Wednesday.
  • 10:24

    GBP/USD:

    Rallies back as bids $1.6080/00 contained the sell-off, and euro sterling reversed off earlier highs at stg0.8458. Cable has recaptured the $1.6100 handle and currently trades $1.6134.

  • 10:11

    FTSE -4.46 -0.07% 6,046.57, CAC +3.33 +0.08% 4,094.13, Dax +19.55 +0.27% 7,303.17

  • 09:56

    OPTIONS: expiries for the 1500GMT cut:

     

    USD/JPY Y81.15, Y82.00, Y82.25, Y84.00, Y84.05, Y84.40, Y85.20
    EUR/JPY Y111.95, Y112.60
    EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3515, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3775. $1.3800
    GBP/USD $1.5840
    AUD/USD $1.0000, $1.0120, $1.0300
    USD/CHF chf0.9650



     

  • 09:38

    Asian session: The dollar and the yen fell

    Data:
    00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance (Jan) -31
    05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jan) 44.3
    05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Jan) 47.2
    The dollar and the yen fell against most major counterparts as Asian stocks gained before reports forecast to show German industrial output rebounded and U.S. small business confidence improved.
    The pound strengthened for the first time in four days versus the greenback after U.K. data showed an increase in retail sales and improvement in the housing market. 
    German industrial production increased 0.2 percent in December from the previous month, when it dropped 0.7 percent, a  survey of economists showed before today’s report. 
    Losses in the dollar may be tempered before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testifies tomorrow at a hearing of the House Budget Committee.
    A government report last week showed the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 9 percent in January from 9.4 percent the previous month.
    There’s a 49 percent chance U.S. policy makers will raise borrowing costs by December, according to interest-rate futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade. The probability was 33 percent a month ago. The benchmark rate has been at a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

    EUR/USD: the pair become stronger above a mark $1.3560.
    GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1.6150.
    USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y82.10.

    At 1100GMT, Germany industrial output for December is expected to rise by a reading of 0.2% m/m, 12.4% y/y.

  • 09:33

    Forex: Monday' review

    The euro slid for a fourth day versus the dollar as data showed German factory orders fell more than analysts forecast in December, while U.S. reports this week are forecast to indicate the nation’s recovery is gaining strength.
    The 17-nation shared currency erased earlier gains versus the yen after the Economy Ministry in Berlin reported factory orders dropped 3.4% from November. 
    Economists had forecast a 1.5% decline in German factory orders.
    The greenback gained versus nine of its 16 most-traded counterparts as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.8%. 
    The dollar gained versus the euro and yen on Feb. 4 as a report showed the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped in January to 9%, the lowest since April 2009.
    The pound rose against most of its major counterparts on speculation the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates to contain inflation. 
    A report this week is forecast to show U.K. manufacturing expanded for an eighth month in December. Output rose 0.4% after a 0.6% gain in November, the Office for National Statistics will say on Feb. 10.
    On the same day, the Bank of England is forecast to keep its bond-purchase plan at 200 billion pounds ($323 billion) and leave benchmark rates at a record low 0.5%, according to all economists in a survey.
    The Australian dollar advanced as job advertisements in the nation rose for a ninth month. Jobs advertised in newspapers and on the Internet climbed 2.4% in January from December, when they increased a revised 1.2%, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a report.

    EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1.3510.
    GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1.6090-$ 1.6180.
    USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y82.15-Y82.50.

    At 1100GMT, Germany industrial output for December is expected to rise by a reading of 0.2% m/m, 12.4% y/y.

  • 09:12

    Stocks: Monday's review

    Japan’s stocks gained for a second day after earnings increased and the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, strengthening confidence in the global economic recovery.
    Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest carmaker, rose 0.9 percent.
    Credit Saison Co., a consumer lender, and Ebara Corp., a pump maker, surged at least 8.7 percent after they boosted profit forecasts.
    Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan’s No. 3 bank by market value and the biggest share holder of Credit Saison, rose 1.2 percent.
    Ebara jumped 14 percent to 450 yen, the biggest gain in the Nikkei. The pump maker projected full-year net income will more than double to 11 billion yen. That’s 22 percent higher than its previous forecast.
    Sega Sammy Holdings Inc., a maker of video-game and pachinko machines, advanced 3 percent to 1,796 yen, its highest close since July 2007. The company said net income for the April-December period more than doubled to 36.8 billion yen from 16.9 billion yen a year ago.
    Yokogawa Electric leapt 7.6 percent to 720 yen after Nomura increased its share-price estimate on the stock to 770 yen from 680 yen. Yamaha Corp., a maker of musical instruments, gained 1.7 percent to 1,110 yen as Tachibana Securities increased its rating on the company to “strong outperform” from “outperform.” Kobe Steel Ltd., a steelmaker, advanced 0.9 percent to 224 yen after the company was boosted to “outperform” from “neutral” at Daiwa Securities Group Inc.
    Banks were the biggest contributors to the Topix’s gain. Mizuho rose 1.2 percent to 164 yen. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s largest publicly traded bank, rose 1.6 percent to 447 yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., the second-biggest bank, climbed 0.7 percent to 2,909 yen.
    European stocks climbed to their highest level since September 2008 as investors speculated that the recovery in the global economy is strengthening.
    SolarWorld AG rallied 6.7 percent as full-year earnings before interest and taxes climbed 26 percent.
    Adidas AG gained 3.6 percent after the sporting-goods maker’s chief executive officer said the company will generate 1 billion euros ($1.36 billion) of sales in China this year.
    Umeco Plc soared 4.9 percent as the maker of materials for McLaren racing cars said it has held talks about selling its Pattonair Ltd. unit.
    Stocks rallied even after German factory orders fell more than predicted in December after jumping five times more than economists had forecast in the previous month. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, dropped 3.4 percent from November, when they surged 5.2 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today.
    Julius Baer Group Ltd. climbed 1.3 percent to 44.11 Swiss francs after the 121 year-old Swiss wealth manager said it plans to buy back as much as 500 million francs ($522 million) of stock, or as much as 5 percent of its outstanding shares, by its annual shareholder meeting next year.
    The company’s full-year net income fell to 353 million francs from 389 million francs a year earlier as clients reassessed the benefits of their cross-border accounts.
    Xstrata Plc rallied 3.6 percent to 1,467.5 pence, leading a gauge of basic-resources stocks to the biggest gain among 19 industry groups in the Stoxx 600. Citigroup Inc. raised its price estimate on Xstrata shares 26 percent to 2,011 pence.
    Copper rose to records in London and New York after figures signaled the U.S. economic recovery is continuing and as investors speculated that Chinese buying will resume after a weeklong holiday.
    Randgold Resources Ltd. climbed 2.6 percent to 5,110 pence as the company proposed to increase its dividend by 18 percent. The producer of gold in West Africa also said 2010 profit rose 49 percent on higher prices and forecast a production gain of as much as 80 percent this year, even as the political crisis in Ivory Coast curbed output last quarter.
    Net income rose to $103.5 million from $69.4 million a year earlier, the Jersey, Channel Islands-based company said today in a statement. Sales climbed 12 percent to $487.7 million.
    Investors started the week in high spirits Monday, welcoming several major mergers as signs that Big Business is more bullish about the economy.
    The biggest deals of the day include AOL's (AOL) acquisition of news blog The Huffington Post for $315 million, and a merger between oil drillers Ensco (ESV) and Pride International (PDE).
    The diversified manufacturing company Danaher (DHR, Fortune 500) will also buy medical device maker Beckman Coulter (BEC) for $6.8 billion.
    Meanwhile, the AOL-Huffington Post deal boosted shares of other media companies. The New York Times (NYT) climbed 2.5% and Gannett (GCI, Fortune 500) shares rose 2.8%.
    Economy: In a speech to more than 200 members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Monday, President Obama made the case for ramping up spending on education and infrastructure to promote economic growth. The speech is seen as another sign of the thawing relationship between the administration and business community.
    A report by the Federal Reserve showed consumer credit rose more than expected in December, climbing by a seasonally adjusted $6.1 billion in December, after increasing by $2 billion the previous month.
    Companies: In addition to some major deals, company earnings were also market movers.
    Humana (HUM, Fortune 500) fell 3.1% after the health benefits provider reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed analysts' expectations. The company said it earned 63 cents per share, versus a forecast of 81 cents.
    Hasbro (HAS) said its fourth-quarter earnings fell to 99 cents per share from $1.09 a year ago, but its shares rose 1.9%.
    U.S.-listed shares of Nokia (NOK) were up 2.1% following reports that a management shake-up is brewing at the Finnish cellphone company.
    Sysco (SYY, Fortune 500) said its second-quarter earnings fell 3.8% due to higher commodities prices, sending shares of the food company falling 6.1%.

  • 08:28

    Tech on USD/JPY

    Resistance 3:Y83.70 (Jan 7 high)
    Resistance 2:Y83.00 (resistance line from Jan 7)
    Resistance 1:Y82.50 (Feb 4-7 high)
    Current price: Y82.12
    Support 1:Y82.10 (session  low)
    Support 2:Y81.30/10 (Feb 1 and 4 low)
    Support 3:Y80.90 (Dec 31 - Jan 3 low)
    Comments: the pair decreases.The nearest resistance - Y82.50. Above growth is possible to Y83.00. The nearest support Y82.15. Below losses are possible to Y81.30/10.

  • 08:18

    Tech on USD/CHF

    Resistance 3: Chf0.9690 (Jan 21 high)
    Resistance 2: Chf0.9600 (Feb 4-7 high)
    Resistance 1: Chf0.9570 (session low)
    Current price: Chf0.9535
    Support 1: Chf0.9530 (session low, Feb 7 low)
    Support 2: Chf0.9495 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0,9330-Chf0,9600)
    Support 3: Chf0.9460 (50.0 % FIBO Chf0,9330-Chf0,9600)
    Comments: the pair decreases. The nearest support Chf0.9530. Below loss may extend to to Chf0.9495. The nearest resistance Chf0.9570. Above is located Chf0.9600.

  • 08:16

    Tech on GBP/USD

    Resistance 3: $ 1.6450 (Jan 19'2010 high)
    Resistance 2: $ 1.6275/00 (Nov 4 and Feb 3 high)
    Resistance 1: $ 1.6180 (Feb 7 high)
    Current price: $1.6141
    Support 1 : $1.6090 (Feb 7 low)
    Support 2 : $1.6030 (Feb 4 low)
    Support 3 : $1.5920 (38.2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6280)
     
    Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest resistance - $1.6180. Above growth is possible  to $1.6275/00. The nearest support - $1.6090. Below is possible testings of around $1.6030. 

  • 07:31

    Tech on EUR/USD

    Resistance 3: $ 1.3860 (Feb 2 high)
    Resistance 2: $ 1.3770 (Feb 2 low)
    Resistance 1: $ 1.3680 (Feb 4 high, МА (200) for Н1)
    Current price: $1.3628
    Support 1 : $1.3570 (session low)
    Support 2 : $1.3510 (Feb 7 low)
    Resistance 3: $ 1.3480 (38,2 % FIBO $1.2870-$ 1.3860)
    Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance - $1,3680. Above  growth is possible to $1,3770. The nearest support - $1,3570. Below  decrease is possible to $1.3510.

  • 07:17

    Schedule for today, Tuesday, Feb 08 2011:

    05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Jan) 44.3 45.6 45.1
     
    05:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Jan) 47.2 43.9
    06:45 Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a (MoM) (Jan) 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
    11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% -0.7%
    11:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Dec) 11.5% 12.1%
    13:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jan) 171.0K 171.5K

Market Focus
  • Swiss government raises 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.8% previously
  • Fed keeps rates on hold, points to 'favourable' economic outlook next year
  • German consumer price growth stabilised in November
  • French consumer prices rose by 0.1% in November, as expected

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