CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 05-06-2014

Gold $1,253.40 +10.20 +0.82%

ICE Brent Crude Oil $108.79 +0.39 +0.36%

NYMEX Crude Oil $102.46 +0.09 +0.09%

Nikkei 15,079.37 +11.41 +0.08%

Hang Seng 23,109.66 -42.05 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,040.88 +16.04 +0.79%

S&P 1,940.46 +12.58 +0.65%

NASDAQ 4,296.23 +44.59 +1.05%

Dow 16,836.11 +98.58 +0.59%

FTSE 1,380.21 +5.46 +0.40%

CAC 4,548.73 +47.73 +1.06%

DAX 9,947.83 +21.16 +0.21%

EUR/USD $1,3662 +0,46%

GBP/USD $1,6813 +0,46%

USD/CHF Chf0,8912 -0,64%

USD/JPY Y102,41 -0,30%

EUR/JPY Y139,93 +0,17%

GBP/JPY Y172,18 +0,17%

AUD/USD $0,9335 +0,64%

NZD/USD $0,8494 +0,89%

USD/CAD C$1,0922 -0,16%

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index April 107.1 106.2

05:00 Japan Coincident Index April 114.5

06:00 Germany Trade Balance April 14.8 14.3

06:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) April -0.5% +0.4%

06:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) April +3.0%

06:00 Germany Current Account April 19.5

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln April -4.9 -5.0

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves April 438.9

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) May +0.1% +0.2%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) May 0.0% +0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter II +2.8%

12:30 Canada Labor Productivity Quarter I +1.0% +0.7%

12:30 Canada Employment May -28.9 +12.3

12:30 Canada Unemployment rate May 6.9% 6.9%

12:30 U.S. Average workweek May 34.5

12:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings May 0.0% +0.2%

12:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls May 288 219

12:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate May 6.3% 6.4%

19:00 U.S. Consumer Credit April 17.5 16.6

Most stock indices rose after the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut. The German stock index DAX briefly hits 10,000 for the first time.

The European Central Bank cut its interest rate to 0.15% from 0.25%, but later recovered its losses and traded higher. Analysts had expected a cut to 0.1%.

The ECB also cut its marginal lending to 0.40% from 0.75% and reduced its deposit rate to -0.10% from 0.0%. The European Central Bank is the world’s first major central bank to use a negative rate. The deposit rate of -0.10% means that commercial bank will be charged for holding their reserves. This measure should spur commercial banks to ramp up lending.

Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain, after a 0.3% increase in March. On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone rose 2.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 1.3% increase, after a 0.9% gain in March.

German factory orders surged 3.1% in April, beating expectations for a 1.3% rise, after a 2.8% decrease in March.

The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at record low 0.50%. The stimulus program of the Bank of England remained unchanged at 375 billion pounds. Investors had expected this decision. Investors expect the BoE will raise interest rate in the first half of next year.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,813.49                                -5.14                       -0.08%

DAX                                     9,947.83                              +21.16                      +0.21%

CAC 40                                4,548.73                              +47.73                      +1.06%

Brent oil prices rose moderately , while rising above $ 108 per barrel, while the price of WTI fell slightly . Influenced the course of trading yesterday's data on oil reserves in the U.S. , as well as today's decision by the ECB's rates.

Experts point out that the European Central Bank adopted measures to support the economy of Europe were received by participants of the oil market as a sign of weakness of the European market . ECB on the results of the May meeting cut its benchmark interest rate on loans from 0.25 % to 0.15 % per annum, and for the first time in the history of the deposit rate dropped to a negative level (- 0.1%). During the press conference after the meeting M.Dragi said that the ECB will hold several rounds of programs target long-term lending (TLTRO) at a fixed interest rate, and reported on the preparations for the quantitative easing .

"The fact that the ECB has decided to establish a negative rate , says the fear of the bank's management about the risks of deflation in the euro area , which allows to predict weak demand for commodities in Europe - said partner John Kilduff Again Capital . - Also in the next two days will be a series of meetings of senior officials of Russia and the West, which may lead to the reduction of tension in Ukraine. "

In addition, investors follow the course of meetings of the leaders of Russia and the West in Paris as part of celebrations marking the 60th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy. It is expected that the negotiations will be discussed Ukrainian crisis and ways of its resolution .

Recall also that the volume of distillates in the U.S. rose for the previous week by 2 million barrels , gasoline - by 210 thousand barrels. Oil stocks fell by 3.43 million barrels , while remaining at a level close to the maximum since 1982, recorded in April of this year .

"The market is composed picture, favoring " bearish " trend, due to the growth of hydrocarbon reserves as a whole - the analyst said BNP Paribas Harry Chilingiryan . - Can still be a short-term correction quotations WTI, during which they may fall below $ 100 per barrel ."

The cost of the July futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 102.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

July futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose 22 cents to $ 108.40 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

The U.S. dollar traded lower against after the European Central Bank’s press conference and ahead of the U.S. job market data on Friday. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 31 in the U.S. rose by 8,000 to 312,000 from 304,000 the previous week. The previous week figure was revised up from 300,000. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to increase by 6,000 to 310,000.

The euro hits 4-month lows against the U.S. dollar after the European Central Bank cut its interest rate to 0.15% from 0.25%, but later recovered its losses and traded higher. Analysts had expected a cut to 0.1%.

The ECB also cut its marginal lending to 0.40% from 0.75% and reduced its deposit rate to -0.10% from 0.0%. The European Central Bank is the world’s first major central bank to use a negative rate. The deposit rate of -0.10% means that commercial bank will be charged for holding their reserves. This measure should spur commercial banks to ramp up lending.

Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain, after a 0.3% increase in March. On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone rose 2.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 1.3% increase, after a 0.9% gain in March.

German factory orders surged 3.1% in April, beating expectations for a 1.3% rise, after a 2.8% decrease in March.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. The BoE kept its interest rate unchanged at record low 0.50%. The stimulus program of the Bank of England remained unchanged at 375 billion pounds. Investors had expected this decision. Investors expect the BoE will raise interest rate in the first half of next year.

Earlier in the trading session, the U.K. house prices were released. The U.K. Halifax house price index increased 3.9% in May, exceeding expectations for a 0.4% rise, after a 0.3% decline in April. April’s figure was revised down from a 0.2% fall.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the Canadian building permits and the Ivey purchasing managers’ index. The building permits in Canada increased 1.1% in April, missing expectations for a 1.4% gain, after a 3.2% decline in March. March’s figure was revised down from a 3.0% decrease.

The Ivey purchasing managers’ index for Canada dropped to 48.2 in May from 54.1 in April, missing expectations for an increase to 58.6.

The New Zealand dollar increased against the U.S dollar recovering this week’s losses. A decline in dairy prices had a negative impact on the kiwi. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar climbed against the U.S. dollar. The Australian trade deficit was A$122 million in April, after a surplus of A$902 million in March. March’s figure was revised up from a surplus of A$731 million. Analysts had expected an A$300 million surplus. Exports declined 1.5% caused by lower commodity prices.

The HSBC services purchase managers’ index for China sank to 50.7 in May from 51.4 in April.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar. No economic data was released in Japan.

Gold prices rose sharply today , adding about 1 percent , and stepping back from four-month low , after the European Central Bank cut interest rates to record lows and Mario Draghi unveiled a package of new measures to stimulate the economy .

Earlier today, the ECB announced a reduction of all major bets from June 11 . The base rate was reduced from 0.25% to 0.15 % per annum, lending - from 0.75% to 0.4 % per annum. In addition , the regulator has introduced a negative deposit rate - at 0.1% . Later at a press conference , ECB head Mario Draghi announced that the regulator is preparing for massive injections of liquidity. About 400 billion euros will be provided in the form of euro-zone banks long-term loans . Furthermore, the European Central Bank is going to start buying direct assets. The news Gold rose at the fastest pace in 5 weeks . The European Central Bank also lowered its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone in 2014 to 1% from 1.2% , expected in March this year . Real GDP growth forecast for the eurozone in 2016 has not changed - 1.8%. Forecast for 2015 , in contrast, was raised - the ECB expects to increase the region's GDP by 1.7% compared to 1.5 % in March ,

Meanwhile, add that today Societe Generale raised by 7.8 per cent forecast in gold prices in 2014 , citing a geopolitical crisis over Ukraine. Bank predicts that gold will cost an average of $ 1,272 per ounce in 2014 , higher than the previous forecast of $ 1,180 an ounce.

Experts point out that after the news from the ECB market participants directed their attention to tomorrow's data on the U.S. labor market . According to forecasts , the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy grew at the end of May to 219 thousand, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.4 % from 6.3% .

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today rose to $ 1253.3 per ounce.

The European Central Bank (ECB) released its interest rate decision today. The ECB cut its interest rate to 0.15% from 0.25% to economic growth and avoid deflation in the Eurozone. Analysts had expected a cut to 0.1%.

The ECB also cut its marginal lending to 0.40% from 0.75% and reduced its deposit rate to -0.10% from 0.0%. The European Central Bank is the world’s first major central bank to use a negative rate. The deposit rate of -0.10% means that commercial bank will be charged for holding their reserves. This measure should spur commercial banks to ramp up lending.

The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced other measures. Long term loans (longer term refinancing operations (TLTROs)) are to be offered to commercial banks at cheap rates until 2018. Two long term loans are scheduled to be launched in September and December 2014. Additional long terms loans will be launched on a quarterly basis until June 2016.

Draghi said interest rates are to remain at the current level for an extended period, further interest rate cuts are not planned and only minor adjustments are still possible. He added that more unconventional measures would be done, if necessary.

The ECB lowered its forecast for economic growth in the Eurozone in 2014 from 1.2% to 1.0% and increased its forecast for 2015 from 1.5% to 1.7%. Inflation rate in the Eurozone is expected to be 0.7% in 2014 (previously 1.0%) and 1.3% in 2015 of 1.3% (previously 1.1%).

EUR/USD $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650

USD/JPY Y102.25-30, Y102.75, Y102.80, Y103.00

GBP/USD $1.6700, $1.6890

EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8195

USD/CHF Chf0.9100

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9295-9300, $0.9350

U.S. stock futures rose as ECB cut its deposit rate below zero and announced additional measures to counter deflation.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,079.37 +11.41 +0.08%

Hang Seng 23,109.66 -42.05 -0.18%

Shanghai Composite 2,040.88 +16.04 +0.79%

FTSE 6,833.7 +15.07 +0.22%

CAC 4,566.88 +65.88 +1.46%

DAX 9,994.05 +67.38 +0.68%

Crude oil $102.26 (-0.37%)

Gold $1243.20 (-0.04%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Microsoft (MSFT) upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital; target raised to $49 from $43

Downgrades:

Other:

Wal-Mart (WMT) initiated with a Sell at Belus Capital; target $71

Twitter (TWTR) initiated with an Outperform at Pacific Crest; target $45

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                   Trade Balance                                 April      0.90       0.53       -0.12

01:45    China                       HSBC Services PMI                          May       51.4                      50.7

06:00    Germany                  Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)              April        -2.8%   +1.3%   +3.1%

06:00    Germany                  Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)            April      +1.5%                 +6.3%

07:00    United Kingdom        Halifax house price index                May         -0.2%   +0.4% +3.9%

07:00    United Kingdom        Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y    May       +8.5%                +8.7%

09:00    G7                            G7 Meetings                                                 

09:00    Eurozone                 Retail Sales (MoM)                           April      +0.3%  +0.1%   +0.4%

09:00    Eurozone                 Retail Sales (YoY)                            April      +0.9%  +1.3%   +2.4%

11:00    United Kingdom       BoE Interest Rate Decision                           0.50%   0.50%   0.50%

11:00    United Kingdom       Asset Purchase Facility                                  375        375        375

11:00    United Kingdom       MPC Rate Statement                                                

11:45    Eurozone                 ECB Interest Rate Decision                          0.25%   0.10%    0.15%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed against the most major currencies ahead of the release of initial jobless claims in the U.S. and the European Central Bank’s press conference. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S should climb by 14,000 to 314,000.

The euro dropped against the U.S. dollar after the European Central Bank cut its interest rate to 0.15% from 0.25%. Investors had expected that the ECB will cut its interest rate.

Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain, after a 0.3% increase in March. On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone rose 2.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 1.3% increase, after a 0.9% gain in March.

German factory orders surged 3.1% in April, beating expectations for a 1.3% rise, after a 2.8% decrease in March.

The British pound increased against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, but later lost its gains. The BoE kept its interest rate unchanged at record low 0.50%. The stimulus program of the Bank of England remained unchanged at 375 billion pounds. Investors had expected this decision. Investors expect the BoE will raise interest rate in the first half of next year.

Earlier in the trading session, the U.K. house prices were released. The U.K. Halifax house price index increased 3.9% in May, exceeding expectations for a 0.4% rise, after a 0.3% decline in April. April’s figure was revised down from a 0.2% fall.

The Canadian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of the Canadian building permits and the Ivey purchasing managers’ index. The building permits in Canada should climb 1.4% in April, after a 3.0% decline in March.

The Ivey purchasing managers’ index for Canada should increase to 58.6 in May from 54.1 in April.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3556

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30    Eurozone            ECB Press Conference                                              

12:30    Canada               Building Permits (MoM)                        April      -3.0%   +1.4% 

12:30    U.S.                    Initial Jobless Claims                             May       300        314       

14:00    Canada               Ivey Purchasing Managers Index         May       54.1      58.6     

17:30    U.S.                    FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota       

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3688, $1.3665/80, $1.3648-50, $1.3635-40

Bids  $1.3585/80, $1.3570, $1.3550, $1.3525/20

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6860, $1.6835/40

Bids  $1.6700-90

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9350, $0.9330, $0.9300

Bids  $0.9255/50, $0.9235/30, $0.9220, $0.9210/00

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.80, Y140.50, Y140.00

Bids Y139.20, Y139.00, Y138.85/80, Y138.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.50, Y103.00, Y102.75/80

Bids Y102.40, Y102.00, Y101.60

EUR/GBP

Offers  stg0.8215-25, stg0.8195/205, stg0.8160/65, stg0.8150

Bids stg0.8080, stg0.8050

The Bank of England (BoE) released its interest rate decision today. The BoE kept its interest rate unchanged at record low 0.50%. The stimulus program of the Bank of England remained unchanged at 375 billion pounds. Investors had expected this decision.

Investors expect the BoE will raise interest rate in the first half of next year.

The Bank of England governor Mark Carney mentioned before that the BoE would not raise interest rate until joblessness fell below 7%. The unemployment rate is 6.8% now.

Stock indices traded little changed ahead the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision today. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

Retail sales in the Eurozone climbed 0.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain, after a 0.3% increase in March. On a yearly basis, retail sales in the Eurozone rose 2.4% in April, exceeding expectations for a 1.3% increase, after a 0.9% gain in March.

German factory orders surged 3.1% in April, beating expectations for a 1.3% rise, after a 2.8% decrease in March.

The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,798.96                              -19.67                       -0.29%

DAX                                     9,920.74                                 -5.93                       -0.06%

CAC 40                                4,507.26                                 +6.26                      +0.14%

EUR/USD $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650

USD/JPY Y102.25-30, Y102.75, Y102.80, Y103.00

GBP/USD $1.6700, $1.6890

EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8195

USD/CHF Chf0.9100

EUR/CHF Chf1.2200

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9225, $0.9295-9300, $0.9350

Asian stock indices were exhibiting a mixed trend ahead the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision. Investors are awaiting the ECB will cut interest rates and announce measures to boost lending to smaller businesses.

The HSBC services purchase managers’ index for China sank to 50.7 in May from 51.4 in April.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                         15,079.37              +11.41           +0.08%

Hang Seng                          23,109.66              -42.05            -0.18%

Shanghai Composite           2,040.88             +16.04            +0.79%

LG Household & Health Care Ltd. shares dropped 12.0% after its vice chairman sold most his shares.

Economic calendar (GMT0):

01:30    Australia                   Trade Balance                                 April      0.90       0.53       -0.12

01:45    China                       HSBC Services PMI                          May       51.4                      50.7

06:00    Germany                  Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)              April        -2.8%   +1.3%   +3.1%

06:00    Germany                  Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)            April      +1.5%                 +6.3%

07:00    United Kingdom        Halifax house price index                May         -0.2%   +0.4% +3.9%

07:00    United Kingdom        Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y    May       +8.5%                +8.7%

09:00    G7                            G7 Meetings                                                  

09:00    Eurozone                 Retail Sales (MoM)                           April      +0.3%  +0.1%   +0.4%

09:00    Eurozone                 Retail Sales (YoY)                            April      +0.9%  +1.3%   +2.4%

The U.S. dollar traded slightly lower against the most major currencies due to the weak economic data in the U.S. According to the U.S. ADP employment report, private sector employment increased by 179,000 jobs for May, missing expectations for a gain by 217,000 jobs. April's figure was revised down to an increase of 215,000 from a rise of 220,000.

The U.S. trade deficit increased 6.9% to $47.2 billion in April, from a deficit of 44.18 in March. That was the largest figure since April 2012. March’s figure was revised down to a deficit of $44.18 billion from -40.40 billion U.S. dollar.

The New Zealand dollar traded higher against the U.S dollar recovering a part of its losses. A decline in dairy prices had a negative impact on the kiwi. No economic data was published in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of weak economic data in Australia and China. The Australian trade deficit was A$122 million in April, after a surplus of A$902 million in March. March’s figure was revised up from a surplus of A$731 million. Analysts had expected an A$300 million surplus. Exports declined 1.5% caused by lower commodity prices.

The HSBC services purchase managers’ index for China sank to 50.7 in May from 51.4 in April.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar ahead the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision. No economic data was released in Japan.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y102.45

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

11:00    United Kingdom  BoE Interest Rate Decision                              0.50%   0.50%   

11:00    United Kingdom  Asset Purchase Facility                                     375        375        

11:00    United Kingdom  MPC Rate Statement                                                 

11:45    Eurozone            ECB Interest Rate Decision                              0.25%   0.10%   

12:30    Eurozone            ECB Press Conference                                               

12:30    Canada               Building Permits (MoM)                        April      -3.0%   +1.4%  

12:30    U.S.                    Initial Jobless Claims                             May       300        314        

14:00    Canada               Ivey Purchasing Managers Index         May       54.1      58.6      

17:30    U.S.                    FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota                                                           

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3727 (4418)

$1.3694 (2048)

$1.3646 (387)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3602

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3572 (5612)

$1.3555 (3275)

$1.3532 (4637)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 59604 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (6340);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 77739 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3500 (8700);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.30 versus 1.32 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 4.

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7000 (2729)

$1.6901 (2301)

$1.6802 (1421)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6742

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6697 (2603)

$1.6599 (2504)

$1.6500 (974)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 24855 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2729);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 26991 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2603);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.09 versus 1.10 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 4.

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.