Australia: Hoping for an end of year lift – ANZ

ANZ's analysts suggest that after a very busy week in terms of data and the RBA statement, the week ahead is quieter for Australia, but still important, with key data on business conditions released and the RBA Governor speaking on 10 December.

• “It will be interesting to see whether he gets asked any questions about how quantitative easing (QE) might work. One issue we have just looked at is how the cash rate target operates in such a world.
• Consumer confidence data in the coming week will be important. Among the many disappointments in the Q3 GDP report was the softness of household spending. This wasn’t because the tax cuts were worth less than we thought. Household income jumped sharply in the quarter. But households choose to save rather than spend.
• The shift higher in the household saving rate suggests we may see greater spending at some point, possibly into the end of the year. But the weakness of October retail sales and the continued decline in consumer sentiment argue otherwise.
• We also note that the lift in December spending has weakened in recent years. ‘Black Friday’ may provide a positive surprise for November sales. Even if it does, the pressure on our domestic spending forecast is downward, especially when we add the softer outlook for non-mining business investment.”