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16 August 2019

New US tariffs will test China’s ability to prop up its economy - JP Morgan

New U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could deal another blow to the Asian economic giant — and it’s not clear how much more Beijing can do to prop up its economy, Bruce Kasman, chief economist and head of global economic research at J.P. Morgan said.

Since the ongoing tariff fight between Washington and Beijing started about a year ago, Chinese authorities have used both monetary and fiscal policies to limit the economic damage brought on by elevated U.S. tariffs. Those measures have worked to some extent, according Kasman.

Growing U.S.-China tensions, and slowing Chinese and European economies are among the largest risks to global growth in the near term, several economists have said. Those stresses in the world economy could spill over to the U.S., according to Kasman.

Worries about risks outside the U.S. prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July. Investors have also become increasingly concerned about a potential looming recession. Kasman said there’s a 40% chance of a global recession in the next six to nine months.

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