ANZ's analysts believe that the Australian employment growth will stall in June as most of the leading indicators suggest a sharp slowing in employment growth is due.
“An unwind of election-related employment is likely to impact the June report.
Looking beyond the June report, the ANZ Labour Market Indicator points to the unemployment rate holding around 5.2-5.3% in the second half the year. We don’t think the RBA can make progress toward an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower without giving the economy additional stimulus.
Some reports suggested the consumer and business confidence data this week was disappointingly soft. We are inclined to be cautious in interpreting the numbers this way. Equally, though, we don’t think ANZ Job Ads was as strong as the gain in June suggested.
All up we don’t think this week’s data provided the ‘smoking gun’ the RBA seems to need to ease as soon as next month. A weak employment report and soft CPI data may provide the impetus.”
All posted material is a marketing communication solely for informational purposes and reliance on this may lead to loss. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.
Risk Warning: Trading in the financial markets (including trading on margin) provides a wide range of opportunities and enables investors ready to take risks to make high profits, but it carries a potentially high level of risk of loss. Therefore, prior to trading you should take into careful consideration whether such operations are suitable for you in terms of your level of knowledge and financial situation.
© 2000-2019. All rights reserved.
This site is managed by Teletrade D.J. Limited 20599 IBC 2012 (First Floor, First St. Vincent Bank Ltd Building, James Street, Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines).
The information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.