Market news
06.02.2019, 06:56

Reserve Bank of Australia Gov Lowe: interest rate outlook is more evenly balanced

  • lower rates might be appropriate if unemployment rises, inflation stalls

  • probabilities on next rate move "appear to be more evenly balanced"

  • there are scenarios where the next move in rates is up, others where it is down

  • board does not see strong case for a near-term change in cash rate

  • will be monitoring developments in labour market closely

  • if jobs and wages rising, will be appropriate to raise cash rate at some stage

  • lower rates might be appropriate if unemployment rises, inflation stalls

  • in position to maintain current policy while assessing shifts in global economy, household spending

  • downside risks to domestic economy have increased

  • household consumption expected to grow around 2.75 pct over next couple of years

  • still expect economy to grow at reasonable pace over next couple of years

  • sees economy expanding by around 3 pct in 2019, 2.75 pct over 2020

  • expects Q4 GDP to be stronger than surprisingly soft Q3 outcome

  • unemployment declining to around 4.75 pct over the next two years

  • underlying inflation to rise to about 2 pct later this year, 2.25 pct by end of 2020

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