Gold Is Ready to Move

Gold prices have risen 1.45% to $2,898 per troy ounce this week, rebounding after a 4.1% correction last week. Prices briefly reached $2,929 per ounce, approaching the all-time high of $2,954. The correction was largely driven by recession fears and uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Last week’s macroeconomic data pointed to a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy, with the S&P 500 declining 3.0% and large investors reducing their gold positions. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) reported a neutral balance last week but recorded net outflows of $234.8 million on Monday.

Stock market weakness continues, further pressuring gold. On Tuesday, Trump raised tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, only to delay auto-related tariffs on Mexico and Canada for another month on Wednesday, while keeping China’s levies intact. This pattern suggests he may be using Mexico and Canada as a coverup in his broader trade war with China.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold purchases, providing price support. Interestingly, gold prices rallied on Monday after Trump’s tariff reminders but fell the next day following his delays. American investors were net sellers of gold throughout Wednesday, with GLD reporting outflows in the first half of the week.

While gold was initially expected to pull back in March, its rapid early-month retreat may lead to a direct climb toward extreme targets of $3,150–3,250 per ounce.

This week, recession fears are rising, and a potentially weak U.S. labour market report on Friday could further pressure gold. The nearest support is at $2,850–2,870, while tariff developments remain the primary driver. From a technical standpoint, gold is poised for a major move, but not necessarily to the upside. A break above $2,950–2,970 would confirm the start of a new rally.