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- Sergey Rodler
Expert opinion by Sergey Rodler on All market
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28.01.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.45% to
107.92 points this week, while the EUR/USD declined by 0.60% to 1.04290. The
Dollar strengthened amid a "tariffs roller coaster" sparked by U.S.
President Donald Trump. On Sunday, Trump threatened Colombia with a trade war
after its government refused to accept deported citizens from the United
States. Colombia swiftly capitulated, agreeing to receive deportees within
hours of Trump's warning.
This heightened volatility on Monday, with
EUR/USD initially dropping by 0.36% to 1.04560 at the opening, then rebounding
by 0.76% to 1.
23.01.2025
Gold prices have risen by 1.9% this week to
$2,753 per troy ounce, approaching the all-time high of $2,789. A further
upward move could easily push prices beyond this peak in the coming days. The
current rally began on Monday, and even if momentum slows, gold could still
reach new record levels through inertia, possibly at the start of next week.
A breakout above the record high would likely
fuel further gains, with prices potentially targeting $3,000 per ounce.
Although fundamental drivers are becoming less transparent, technical indicators
strongly support continued upward momentum.
21.01.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down by 0.67%
to 108.61 this week, with the EURUSD rising by 0.77% to 1.03550. Major
currencies advanced almost uniformly against the Dollar, gaining around 1.5% on
Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from mentioning tariffs in
his inaugural address. Instead, he focused on record inflation, urging his
Cabinet "to marshal the vast powers at their disposal to defeat" it.
This speech confirmed recent positive
indications from Administration insiders that tariffs would be increased
gradually, avoiding direct confrontation with China.
16.01.2025
Brent crude prices are climbing by 2.8% this
week, reaching $82.08 per barrel. Notably, prices have broken through the
$78.00-80.00 resistance level and retested it successfully, suggesting a
potential move toward the next resistance at $88.00-90.00 per barrel—an
additional 8.0% upside. This surge is driven by uncertainty surrounding new
U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil sector, which significantly disrupt global oil
logistics.
Before these sanctions, Brent prices were
consolidating between $76.00-78.00 with a downside bias.
14.01.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped by 0.14% to
109.50 points this week, while the EURUSD edged up by 0.10% to 1.02550. Though
the decline of the Greenback may appear minor, it is notable in the context of
the current environment, where expectations of further Dollar strength have
become highly pronounced. Speculation about the Dollar surpassing the Euro has
been widespread, with the options market projecting GBPUSD to trade in the
1.11000-1.12000 range amid financial challenges facing the U.K. government.
09.01.2025
Gold prices rose by 1.0% this week to $2,664
per troy ounce, showing resilience despite rising U.S. Treasury yields, which
typically weigh on the metal. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest
level since April 2024, but gold continues to gain momentum, supported by a
combination of fundamental and technical factors.
One key driver is the resumption of gold
purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) after a six-month pause. The
PBOC added 0.45% to its reserves, bringing them to 73.29 million troy ounces.
Historically, such activity has had a bullish impact on gold prices.
26.12.2024
Brent crude prices declined by 0.45% this week
to $73.55 per barrel, hovering near the key support zone of $69.00-71.00. The
narrowing trading range signals strong momentum and heightened downside risks.
Large investors are aligning with a bearish outlook, as the United States Oil
Fund (USO) reported net outflows of $132.6 million last week and another $29.0
million this week, reflecting diminished confidence in sustained price
recovery.
The technical outlook remains negative, with
persistent downside pressure. A breach of the $69.00-71.
24.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has gained 0.49%
to reach 108.15, while the EURUSD has declined by 0.35% to 1.03960. This
follows last week’s hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, where policymakers
maintained a firm stance despite a widely expected 0.25% interest rate cut. The
Fed revised its economic outlook, reducing its forecast for interest rate cuts
in 2025 to two from the previously expected four in September.
The EURUSD dropped 1.3% to 1.03430 after the
Fed meeting, driven solely by the central bank's hawkish rhetoric.
19.12.2024
Gold prices are down 1.4% this week, trading
at $2,615 per troy ounce, recovering from a steep 2.4% decline on Wednesday
that brought prices to $2,582, their lowest level since November 18. The market
is at a critical juncture, with the potential for further declines to
$2,300-$2,500 or a renewed rally towards $3,100-$3,200. This delicate balance
follows the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which has put downward pressure
on the yellow metal.
The Fed implemented a quarter-point interest
rate cut to 4.50% but maintained a strongly hawkish outlook.
17.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar index is trading neutrally
around 107.00 points this week, with EURUSD down by 0.68% to 1.04800. The major
currency pair failed to hold above the resistance at 1.05400-1.05600, despite
several attempts at the start of the previous week. However, the Dollar resumed
its climb following the release of higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data for
November.
Consumer prices rose to 2.7% YoY in November,
up from 2.6%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at
3.3% YoY. The EURUSD closed last Wednesday within the resistance zone at
1.05400-1.
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