WEEKLY REVIEW: Waiting for the Fed’s monetary policy meeting next week
22.04.2016, 16:44

WEEKLY REVIEW: Waiting for the Fed’s monetary policy meeting next week

Oil prices and the Fed's monetary policy remained in focus this week. This week's U.S. economic was mixed again. The labour market continued to strengthen, while the U.S. manufacturing sector remained weak. Markit Economics's preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell in April to the lowest level since September 2009.

It is unlikely that the Fed will raise its interest rate next week. Market participants will analyse the Fed's statement, looking for hints when the Fed will continue to hike its interest rate. The "dovish" statement will likely weigh on the U.S. dollar.

Oil prices rose this week, supported by the strike in Kuwait's oil sector and hopes for a freeze of the oil output. The meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries in Doha on April 17 ended without any agreement on the freeze of the oil production. But oil producers plan to meet in June. OPEC Secretary-General Abdallah Salem el-Badri said on Thursday that OPEC and non-OPEC countries could discuss the freeze of the oil output in June.

Oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the coming days and weeks.

The European Central Bank's (ECB) kept its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday. The ECB President Mario Draghi said nothing new. He pointed out that the central bank did not discuss helicopter money and that interest rates would remain at low levels for a longer period.

It is likely that the currency pair EURUSD will rise toward the high of April 21 at $1.1397 or toward the high of April 12 at $1.1464, if there are be negative news from the U.S. and there are no negative economic data from the Eurozone.

If the U.S. economic data is better than expected and in case of the negative economic data from the Eurozone, the currency pair EURUSD may test the support level at $1.1200 or $1.1100.

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