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17.06.2016
Financial markets were volatile this week. Uncertainty over the referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union (EU) on June 23 remained in focus. According to the latest polls, the majority of Britons would support Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). The situation could change. EU referendum campaigning were suspended after the attack on Labour MP Jo Cox. Cox died after being shot. Cox supported the campaign "Remain".
The Fed kept its interest rates unchanged this week as widely expected.
10.06.2016
The U.S. dollar rebounded this week after last Friday's weak labour market data from the U.S. The U.S. economy added only 38,000 jobs in May.
The majority of market participants do not believe that the Fed will raise its interest rate next week. But market participants speculate that the Fed may hike its interest rates in July. That speculation supported the U.S. dollar this week.
I think that an interest rate hike in July will depend on the U.S. labour market data for June and the referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union (EU) on June 23. In case of the weak U.S.
03.06.2016
The U.S. dollar was supported last week by comments of several Fed officials, who noted that the Fed could raise its interest rate in June or July. The Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said last Friday that an interest rate hike would be likely appropriate "in the coming months".
But the U.S. dollar dropped today on the weak U.S. labour market data. The U.S. economy added 38,000 jobs in May, missing expectations for a rise of 164,000 jobs, after a gain of 123,000 jobs in April. It was the smallest rise since September 2010.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in May from 5.
27.05.2016
The greenback increased further this week. The U.S. currency was supported by comments by Fed officials. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said on Wednesday that that he expected the Fed could raise its interest rate two to three times this year. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday that low interest rates for a longer period could lead to financial instability in future.
Market participants are awaiting a speech by the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen later in the day. She will speak at Harvard University.
20.05.2016
Practically nobody believed last week that the Fed would continue to hike its interest rates in June. But comments by some Fed officials changed the view of market participants. More market participants think that the Fed may raise its interest rate in June.
New York Fed President William Dudley said on Thursday that an interest rate hike in June or July would be appropriate if the U.S. economy continues to improve after the weak first quarter.
13.05.2016
This week was fairly quiet. The U.S. economic market data was mixed again. The initial jobless claims in the U.S. surprisingly increased last week. Are that signs of the slowdown in the U.S. labour market? The pace of the job creation also slowed in April.
Market participants are awaiting the U.S. labour market for May. The weaker-than-expected U.S. labour market could mean that the Fed would not raise its interest rate in June.
06.05.2016
The U.S. labour market data was in focus this week. The pace of the job creation slowed in April, while wages rose slightly. Other U.S. economic data remained mixed.
Some Fed officials said this week that they could support an interest rate hike in June if the U.S. economy continued to improve. But there is a problem. The Fed's next monetary policy meeting is scheduled to be on June 14-15. But there is a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union (EU) on June 23. As Britain's exit from the EU would have a negative impact on the U.S.
29.04.2016
The Fed's and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decisions were in focus this week. Both central banks kept its interest rates unchanged. Especially, the BoJ's decision led to a turmoil in the markets as market participants speculated that the central bank could add further stimulus measures.
The Fed noted that the U.S. economic activity slowed. That could mean that the Fed would delay its further interest rate hike. The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter and personal spending data for March support such speculation.
22.04.2016
Oil prices and the Fed's monetary policy remained in focus this week. This week's U.S. economic was mixed again. The labour market continued to strengthen, while the U.S. manufacturing sector remained weak. Markit Economics's preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell in April to the lowest level since September 2009.
It is unlikely that the Fed will raise its interest rate next week. Market participants will analyse the Fed's statement, looking for hints when the Fed will continue to hike its interest rate. The "dovish" statement will likely weigh on the U.S. dollar.
15.04.2016
Oil prices and the Fed's monetary policy were in focus this week. It is getting clearer this week that the Fed would not hike its interest rate in April. Fed officials need more information to be convinced for a vote for an interest rate hike.
This week's U.S. economic was mixed. The consumer price inflation in the U.S. declined in March and is likely to remain low due to low energy prices. Higher oil prices could help to boost inflation.
Oil prices rose this week.
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