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20.03.2015, 10:15

EUR/USD: After FED = before FED

On Friday, the 13th of March the euro set a new 12-year low against the U.S. dollar at USD1.0461. One week later the single currency trades above USD1.0650 again - currently about 200 pips above the low. So far so bullish - or at least a phase of stabilization of the 'oversold' euro. Only if there would not have been the skyrocketing euro after the FED statement, trading as high as USD1.1022, just to be sold off a day later. Of course the bullish movement was partly driven by a short-squeeze but still a very valid sign of life and an indication that the euro might enter a pullback. But the fact that the complete rally was reversed in less than 24 hours is a strong sign of how bearish market participants are on the euro.

Still, the euro trades within an established upwards-trend since setting new lows and we are far from 'all is lost' - although the sell-off was a strong sign on how fragile the single currencies recovery is.


Monthly chart

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