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13.03.2025
Brent crude is down 0.02% to $70.65 per barrel
this week, testing the support range of $68.00–$70.00 per barrel twice but
failing to break below it. This could indicate a potential recovery.
Large investors remain cautious, having
observed the $70.00–$90.00 per barrel range for at least two years. Over this
period, four downside attempts have failed, each followed by a rebound to
$80.00 per barrel. Shorting oil remains a challenge. Last week, large investors
sold United States Oil Fund (USO) shares worth $57.8 million following earlier
sell-offs of $21.9 million, securing a 4–6% profit.
11.03.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down by 0.27%
to 103.55 points this week, while the EURUSD has risen by 0.60% to 1.09150,
marking its highest level since November 6, 2024, when the Trump-driven rally
began. Few anticipated such a rapid strengthening of the Euro, which was
largely driven by incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s announcement of a
massive spending plan aimed at bolstering the military and heavily investing in
the economy. This initiative will require substantial borrowing, with defense spending
exempt from the country’s constitutional debt brake.
06.03.2025
Gold prices have risen 1.45% to $2,898 per
troy ounce this week, rebounding after a 4.1% correction last week. Prices
briefly reached $2,929 per ounce, approaching the all-time high of $2,954. The
correction was largely driven by recession fears and uncertainty surrounding
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Last week’s macroeconomic data pointed to a
sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy, with the S&P 500 declining 3.0% and
large investors reducing their gold positions. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
reported a neutral balance last week but recorded net outflows of $234.
04.03.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index
(DXY) is down 0.85% to 106.26 points this week with the EURUSD rising by 1.63% to 1.05400. The Dollar’s sharp decline from
Monday is unusual and may be driven by slowing inflation. The January PCE Index
fell to 2.5% YoY from 2.6%, while core PCE (excluding food and fuel) dropped to
2.6% YoY from 2.8%. This weakness was compounded by disappointing ISM March
Manufacturing PMI, which declined to 50.3 points, although S&P Global Manufacturing
PMI increased to 52.7 points.
Additionally, Atlanta Fed Q1 2025 GDP
projections suggest the U.S. economy may contract by 2.
27.02.2025
Brent crude benchmark
prices are down 2.0% to $72.86 this week, breaking below the support at
$74.00–75.00 per barrel. Prices are now rapidly
approaching the strong support zone at $68.00–70.00 per barrel. This downturn
is not driven by a single factor but rather by a snowballing effect of negative
developments accelerating the decline.
Disappointing macroeconomic data, including
higher-than-expected initial jobless claims and weak services PMI last week,
were compounded by Walmart’s (WMT) weak Q1 2025 forward guidance. Additionally,
U.S.
25.02.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading neutral
at 106.61 points this week, with EURUSD slightly up by 0.12% to 1.04710.
Technical oversold conditions for the Greenback have eased after last
Wednesday’s sharp EURUSD drop of 0.88% to 1.04000, driven by hawkish remarks
from multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) members. Following this move, the pair was
primed for a rebound toward the 1.04700–1.05700 target zone.
On Friday, weaker-than-expected U.S. services
sector business activity weighed on stocks and opened a path for a weaker
Greenback.
20.02.2025
Gold prices have surged by 2.5% to $2,954 per
troy ounce this week, marking the seventh all-time high in February. The rally
continues as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates his tariff disputes
globally.
Trump remained silent last week amid
persistent U.S. inflation, which rose to 3.0% YoY in January. Meanwhile,
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell signalled that the Fed is likely to
delay rate cuts for an extended period. However, Trump has been vocal in
pushing the central bank to lower interest rates immediately.
18.02.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising by 0.18%
to 106.91 points this week, while EURUSD is down by 0.33% to 1.04560. The
dollar is recovering after last week’s sharp decline, when it lost 1.60% to the
euro, pushing EURUSD to 1.05110—the highest level since January 27. This drop
was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements targeting
Colombia, Canada, Mexico, China, and steel and aluminium imports into the U.S.
Currently, EURUSD appears overbought, and a
corrective move to the 1.03800–1.04400 range could relieve this tension.
13.02.2025
Brent crude prices are down 1.3% this week,
trading at $74.30 per barrel and marking new 2025 lows. Prices initially rose
on Monday and Tuesday following reports of lower Russian oil production and
fears of effective sanctions against its energy sector. However, U.S. President
Donald Trump once again surprised the markets by pushing Russia-Ukraine peace
talks into the public spotlight.
Russia reported oil production below its OPEC+
quota, falling by 16,000 barrels per day to 8.962 million bpd. Traders rushed
to buy crude amid concerns that U.S.
11.02.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index is rising by 0.32% to
108.39 points, though its strength against the euro remains moderate. The
EURUSD is down by 0.23% to 1.03030 as U.S. President Donald Trump continues his
pattern of announcing new tariffs every Friday. Over the weekend, these
announcements gain momentum, impacting markets on Monday. Last Friday, Trump
followed this strategy again, designating U.S. steel and aluminium imports for
a new 25% tariff.
Since Monday’s opening, the EURUSD has
declined by 0.58% to 1.02698.
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