Quotes for energy resources WTI US Crude Oil Spot (WTI)

• Crude Oil eases back from risk-on bump, but US inventory declines limit losses.
• WTI remains hampered by $83.00 per barrel technical level.
• API, EIA both report inventory declines.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil slipped back slightly on Wednesday, stumbling away from $83.50 per barrel to trade down to $82.50 as broad-market risk appetite from Tuesday evaporates in the mid-week market session. Despite easing buying pressure in barrel markets, Crude Oil declines remain limited after US barrel counts declined on a week-on-week basis.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a -6.368M barrel decline in US barrel counts for the week ended April 19, missing the forecast uptick of 1.6M and erasing the previous week’s 2.735M buildup. The EIA’s reported decline in Crude Oil stocks adds to the reported inventory decline from the American Petroleum Institute (API) late Tuesday, which showed a -3.23M barrel drawdown for the same period, also missing a forecast 1.8M buildup and eating away at most of the previous week’s increase of 4.09M barrels.

Declining US barrel stocks are helping to balance out broad-market risk aversion flows as commodities take a hit on Wednesday. Volatility is on the rise and investors are turning to Thursday’s upcoming US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print. Markets desperate for any signs of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut over the horizon are hoping that the US’ quarterly GDP results for Q1 will ease back to at least 2.5% compared to the previous print of 3.4%.

This week will wrap up with another print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation metric. Core US PCE MoM in March is expected to hold steady at 0.3%, and rate-cut-hungry market participants are looking for further signs of inflation weakness. At current cut, the Fed is expected to deliver a first rate cut in September, well later than the March rate cut that was expected back in December.

WTI technical outlook

WTI continues to get hung up on the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $83.00, hampering topside momentum in the near-term as barrel bids continue to look for bullish bounces from the $81.00 region. Intraday barrel bidding remains significantly down from recent highs near $87.00, but further downside momentum will need to break below $80.00 before pushing lower.

Daily candles remain on the high side of the 200-day EMA at $79.11, and despite recent bearish pulldown, Crude Oil remains well up from 2024’s early lows near $70.00 per barrel.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart

• WTI consolidates in a narrow range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.
• Easing geopolitical risks acts as a headwind, though improving demand outlook lends support.
• Traders look to US Durable Goods Orders and the official US inventory data for a fresh impetus.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to build on the overnight bounce from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the $80.75 area and oscillate in a range during the Asian session on Wednesday. The commodity currently trades around the $83.25 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.

Concerns about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased after Iran signaled that it has no plans to retaliate against the Israeli limited-scale missile strike. This reduces the risk premium from markets and acts as a headwind for Crude Oil prices. That said, the Israel-Hamas war, so far, has shown little signs of abating, keeping risks of Middle Eastern geopolitics in play and lending some support to the black liquid. 

Adding to this, expectations that major central banks will cut interest rates to support economic growth, which, in turn, will boost fuel consumption, and a surprise drop in US crude inventories last week help limit the downside for Crude Oil prices. In fact, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week to April 19 and added to the optimism over improving demand.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) languishes near its lowest level in over a week in the wake of Tuesday's disappointing US PMI prints for April and further seems to lend support to the commodity. That said, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer support prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying and warrants caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for Crude Oil prices. 

Traders now look forward to the official US crude inventory data for confirmation of the big drawdown and some meaningful impetus. Apart from this, the release of the US Durable Goods Orders might influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around Crude Oil prices. The focus, however, remains on the Advance US Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

• Crude Oil gets pulled in both directions on Tuesday.
• A misfire in US PMIs spark fresh rate cut hopes.
• Risk assets get pumped higher as markets celebrate softening US economy.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil started Tuesday on the low side, falling below $81.00 per barrel before a broad-market recovery in risk appetite dragged barrel bids into a fresh high above $83.00. US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures printed much softer than expected, sparking renewed hopes of a weakening US economy forcing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin cutting rates sooner than previously expected.

Crude Oil markets remain exposed to downside moves as recent geopolitical tensions ease after Iran announced it would not seek further retaliation against Israel. WTI’s recent climb sparked by ongoing fears of a Middle East conflict spilling over into an all-out war faltered near $87.00 per barrel as cooler heads prevail. 

US data is set to continue driving financial markets through the rest of the trading week. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are slated for Thursday, where investors are expecting, or hoping, for US GDP for the annualized first quarter to ease to 2.5% from the previous 3.4%. On Friday, US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation data will be released, which is forecast to hold steady at 0.3% MoM.

WTI technical outlook

WTI crossed $83.00 per barrel after recovering from Tuesday’s bottom bids just below $81.00. The day’s late-stage rally brought US Crude Oil prices just above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA). 

Despite Tuesday’s late rally, US Crude Oil remains knocked off of recent gains, with WTI down around 4.5% from April’s swing highs near $87.00 per barrel. On the low side, long-term technical support sits at the 200-day EMA, holding near $79.23.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart

• WTI loses momentum to nearly one-month lows of $82.00 on Tuesday.
• Easing tensions between Israel and Iran limits the WTI’s downside. 
• A large build in the US stockpile in recent weeks and a hawkish Fed weigh on the black gold.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.00 on Tuesday. The black gold edges lower on the day as the concerns about a wider Middle East war fade. Later on Tuesday, oil traders will take more cues from the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for April and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Friday that Iran does not plan to respond to Israel’s retaliatory strike launched, while Israeli authorities remained mostly silent. The absence of public statements afterward tends to imply that both sides are attempting to ease tensions. WTI prices drop to nearly monthly low as Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran was smaller than had been feared. However, any escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could limit the WTI’s downside from its lower price levels. 

The increase in US crude oil inventories in recent weeks surpassed expectations, which exerts downward pressure on WTI prices. Furthermore, the hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have led to a strong US Dollar (USD) and acts as a headwind for the black gold price. It’s worth noting that a strong dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee said last week that with the strength of the labour market and elevated inflation, he believes the Fed's current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate, per Reuters. 

On the other hand, hope for Chinese demand might offer some relief to WTI prices as China is the world's biggest oil importer. The Chinese government aims to accomplish this with the help of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to lift the economy. ANZ economists expected China's economy to grow 4.9% in 2024, up from 4.2% previously. However, the Chinese property sector remains fragile and it has been a major drag on China's economy. Any negative sign about China’s economy could weigh on the WTI prices. 

• Energy market tensions are receding after Iran, Israel trade blows.
• Fears of an escalating Middle East war are slipping back after Iran blinks.
• US supplies continue to outpace demand, limiting topside supply crunch.

Iran eased off the gas pedal on Monday, stating that it will not retaliate further against Israel following a back-and-forth scuffle between the two countries that sent global energy markets spiraling in recent weeks as fears of a widening Middle East conflict widened. Iran’s current de-escalation has given barrel markets a breather, and prices have slid back as market tensions ease.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil is exploring the low side of the $82.00 handle after declining from a near-term peak near $87.00. US Crude Oil barrels have slipped 6%, but still remain up nearly 15% in 2024.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will deliver its latest weekly Crude Oil Stocks barrel counts late Tuesday. US Crude reserves continue to defy gravity despite broad expectations of steep supply constraints in energy markets. US API barrel counts have been trending higher overall for some time.

WTI Crude Oil technical outlook

Geopolitical tensions continue to expose Crude Oil prices to upside volatility, but prices have continued to drift into the low end in the near term. Intraday action is on the bearish side of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $83.30. The $81.00 handle continues to act as an interim floor for price action, with bidders unable to reclaim territory above $82.00.

Despite declining for all but three of the last 12 consecutive trading days, US Crude Oil continues to trade above the 200-day EMA near $79.00. An extended backslide will see WTI challenging the first quarter’s congestion zone around the $78.00 handle.

WTI hourly chart

WTI daily chart
 

• WTI Oil price depreciates on de-escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• US House passed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector set to become part of a foreign-aid package.
• The hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy puts pressure on the crude Oil’s outlook.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $81.20 per barrel, hovering around its monthly low of $81.05, marked on Thursday. The decline in crude Oil prices can indeed be linked to eased geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, particularly following Reuters reports that Israel and Iran downplayed the risk of further escalation after Israel's strike on Iran.

Meanwhile, the passage of new sanctions on Iran's Oil sector by the US House, as reported by Bloomberg on Saturday, could also have implications for Oil prices, and restrict its ability to export crude Oil. This can reduce global Oil supply and contribute to upward pressure on prices. However, the impact of such sanctions on Oil prices depends on various factors, including the extent of the sanctions, and the response of other Oil-producing countries.

The expansion of secondary sanctions to cover transactions between Chinese financial institutions and sanctioned Iranian banks used for purchasing petroleum and Oil-derived products could indeed impact the crude Oil market.

On the demand side, the outlook for crude Oil is influenced by expectations regarding US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) indication that it may keep interest rates higher for longer, driven by concerns about persistent inflation, can affect the price of Oil. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen the US dollar (USD), making Oil more expensive for countries using other currencies, which can dampen global demand and contribute to lower prices.

The hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, such as those made by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, reinforce expectations of a tighter monetary policy stance, which could further support the US dollar and potentially weigh on crude Oil prices.

• WTI snaps the three-day winning streak near $85.00 on Friday.
• Israel retaliates as missiles strike a site in Iran, boosting the black gold price.
• The expectation that the US Fed will delay interest rate cuts to September might cap the WTI’s upside.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.00 on Friday. The black gold gains traction on the day amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran after a US official confirmed that Israeli missiles had hit a site in Iran.

On Friday, ABC News reported that explosions were heard at an airport in the Iranian city of Isfahan but the cause was not immediately known. Several flights were diverted over Iranian airspace. Over the weekend, Iran unleashed hundreds of drones and missiles in retaliation for a purported Israeli raid on its Syrian embassy building. The tension between Israel and Iran heightened concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East, triggering the fear of oil supply disruption.

On the other hand, several Fed officials have made hawkish comments in recent days. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that US inflation is too high and Fed still has a way to go on inflation, while New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that the Fed is data dependent and he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates. Earlier this week, Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that inflation is higher than expected and the central bank needs more confidence in its trajectory.

• WTI trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near $82.25 on Thursday. 
• A rise in US crude inventory and a higher possibility of delay rate cuts from the Fed drag the black gold lower. 
• Oil traders will monitor the development surrounding Middle East geopolitical tensions. 

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.25 on Thursday. The black gold edges lower on the day due to a rise in US crude inventory and the expectation of delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might limit the black gold’s downside. 

US crude oil stocks rose for a fourth straight week. Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending April 12 rose by 2.735 million barrels from a build of 5.841 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by 1.6 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. 

Furthermore, several Fed officials delivered hawkish comments, which provided support to the US Dollar (USD) and dragged the USD-denominated WTI prices lower. Late Wednesday, Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that inflation is higher than expected and the central bank needs more confidence in its trajectory. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation data, adding that the US central bank will likely take more time to gain confidence that inflation is headed toward the Fed’s 2% target before lowering borrowing costs.

The risk of escalation in the Middle East appears to be limited for the time being. However, oil traders will keep an eye on Israel, and their response, especially after US President Joe Biden urged restraint and after Iran said they do not intend to continue strikes. Wider conflict in the Middle East might disrupt the oil supply and lift WTI prices. 

• Oil prices accelerate their reversal as US stocks increase beyond expectations
• The outlook of higher rates for a longer time is increasing concerns about a lower demand for oil
• These fears have offset the impact of geopolitical risks.

Oil prices are going through a sharp reversal on Wednesday, to pare some of the gains taken over the last tree months. WTI crude futures broke lower on Wednesday after a period of hesitation hammered by the higher-for-longer Fed outlook coupled with larger-than-expected US oil stocks.

The weekly EIA report revealed that US Oil stocks increased by  2.735 million barrels. in the week of April 12, against expectations of 1.65 million, and from the 5,841 million barrels reported in the previous week.

This increase in crude stocks comes after Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, warned that the bank might still have work to do to bring inflation to the 2% target. These comments suggest that interest rates will remain at restrictive levels for a longer time, which is expected to depress economic growth and weigh on demand for Oil.

This has offset the positive impact on Crude from the increasing geopolitical risks and from news reporting a US threat to reimpose the ban on Venezuelan Oil if President Maduro fails to meet his commitment to fair elections this year.

The broader trend remains bullish although today’s bearish reaction is suggesting a deeper correction. A confirmation below previous highs at $82.85 puts the $80.50 area on the bears’ focus. On the upside, bulls should regain the $84.90 level to shift the focus back toward the YTD high, at $87.60.

• Oil prices edge down to $85 as Fed Powell’s hawkish guidance cast doubts over global demand outlook.
• The US warns to levy fresh sanctions on Iran in response to its attack on Israel.
• Worsening geopolitical tensions will firm the oil price outlook.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, drop slightly to the crucial support of $85.00 in the European session on Wednesday. The Oil price comes under pressure on weak demand outlook amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for a longer period.

Stubbornly higher consumer price inflation and strong labor market data for March have dented Fed’s confidence in price pressures declining to the desired rate of 2%. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence” reported Reuters.

Apart from that, expectations for higher crude Oil inventories for the week ending April 12 have weighed on the Oil price. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasted to have shown a rise in in Oil stockpiles by 1.6 million barrels.

In the Middle East region, fears of oil supply tightening further have deepened as Israel prepares to respond to Iran’s attack on their territory. After aiming hundreds of drones and missiles on Israel, Tehran said, “the matter deemed to be closed.” However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe, Wall Street Journal reported.

The spread of war situation beyond Gaza will disrupt the Oil supply chain. Iran is the third largest Oil exporting member of the OPEC and his involvement in war with Israel will significantly fluctuate global Oil prices. The long-term outlook of the Oil price remains strong if geopolitical tensions worsen further.

Meanwhile, fears of fresh sanctions from the US on Iran has further escalated prospects of tight Oil supply. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that their administration intends to levy new sanctions on Iran against its attack on Israel. Fresh sanctions on Iran would impact their capacity of exporting oil.

• WTI drifts lower to $84.25 on the hawkish Fed remarks on Wednesday.
• The possibility that the Fed will delay the interest rate cut weighs on the black gold. 
• The Middle East geopolitical tension and higher China's crude oil imports boost WTI prices. 

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $84.25 on Wednesday. The black gold edges lower on the day as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell offset the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Investors place lower bets on the Fed rate cuts this year as the US economy remains robust and inflation is still elevated. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that it will take "longer than expected" to achieve the confidence needed to bring inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. It's worth noting that the higher-for-longer US interest rate narrative may put some selling pressure on WTI prices since it translates to less demand for oil as the cost of holding crude oil rises. 

Furthermore, Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending April 12 increased by 4.09 million barrels from a build of 3.03 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would rise by about 600,000 barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.

The ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East continues to boost WTI prices. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a statement late Tuesday that new sanctions targeting Iran and sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's Defense Ministry will be imposed in the coming days. In case of further escalation, $100 oil is possible, Citigroup analysts said. 

Apart from this, China's crude oil imports reached a new high in 2023, jumping by 10% YoY and shattering the previous record set in 2020. This benefits black gold, as China is the world's largest crude oil importer. 

• WTI price received upward support as investors expect Israel to respond to Iran’s assault.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called upon his war cabinet to formulate a response to Iran's direct attack on Israel.
• The crude Oil prices hold ground in the face of mixed Chinese data.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher to near $85.30 per barrel during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The crude Oil prices receive upward support due to concerns about the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly in the wake of Iran's missile and drone attacks on Saturday.

Furthermore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours on Monday to assess how to respond to Iran's direct attack on Israel, according to Reuters. Additionally, Israel's military chief stated that his country would retaliate against the assault, with reports suggesting that they are targeting strategic sites in Iran.

Iran, as a significant member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produces over 3 million barrels of crude Oil per day. Any escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran could potentially trigger a broader conflict in the Middle East.

On the demand side, crude Oil prices appear to be holding steady in the face of mixed data released by the world's largest oil importer on Tuesday. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 expanded by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the previous quarter's growth of 1.0%. Year-on-year GDP growth came at 5.3%, exceeding expectations of 5.0% and surpassing the 5.2% figure from the previous period. However, China's Industrial Production (YoY) in March increased by 4.5%, falling short of market expectations of 5.4% and the previous reading of 7.0%.

Meanwhile, according to an African industry official speaking to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia (OPEC+) considers Namibia for potential membership, given its projected status as Africa's fourth-largest Oil producer by the next decade. The primary aim initially would be for Namibia to become a part of OPEC+'s Charter of Cooperation, a coalition focused on conducting ongoing discussions about energy market dynamics.

• WTI kicks off the new week on a subdued note and reacts little to Iran’s attack on Israel.
• Worries about cooling fuel demand turn out to be a key factor capping the black liquid.
• The risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East to help limit the downside.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices fail to lure buyers despite Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Monday. The commodity currently trades just below the $85.00/barrel mark, nearly unchanged for the day as traders now await Israel's response to the Iranian strike before placing fresh directional bets. 

Iran launched explosive drones and missiles at Israel late on Saturday in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria earlier this month. This marks the first attack on Israel from another country in more than three decades and raises the risk of a broader region conflict, which could affect Oil supply from the Middle East. Meanwhile, Israeli officials are in favor of retaliation, though the US has said that it will not take part in any offensive action against Iran. This, in turn, is seen as a key reason behind the muted market reaction and acts as a headwind for Crude Oil prices. 

The black liquid is further undermined by the fact that the International Energy Agency lowered the 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 130,000 bpd to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) on Friday. This comes on top of the official US data published by the Energy Information Administration last week, which showed an unexpected build in gasoline inventories and pointed to signs of cooling in fuel demand. Furthermore, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay cutting interest rates in the wake of still-sticky inflation could hamper economic activity and dent fuel consumption.

Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop keeps traders on the sidelines and leads to subdued/range-bound price action on the first day of a new week. WTI Crude Oil prices, meanwhile, remain well within the striking distance of a multi-month peak, around the $87.10-$87.15 area touched on April 5, which should act as a key pivotal point. A sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so.

• WTI drifts lower to $85.00 on Friday. 
• The higher-for-longer US rate narrative weighs on the black gold. 
• The fear of Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the WTI’s downside for the time being. 

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.00 on Friday. The black gold edges lower on the day as the elevated inflation dampened the expectation for US interest rate cuts this year. Nonetheless, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might cap the downside of WTI prices in the near term. 

The recent US inflation and employment reports indicated that the path of easing inflation remains extremely bumpy and the Federal Reserve (Fed) might need to delay the interest rate cuts. According to the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, participants noted their uncertainty about the elevated high inflation and recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%.” Financial markets have priced in only two rate cuts this year, which will most likely start in September, per the CME FedWatch Tool. The higher-for-longer US rate narrative could exert some selling pressure on black gold as it translates to less demand for oil as the cost of storing crude increases. 

Additionally, WTI prices lose traction after the release of the EIA report. Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending April 5 increased by 5.841 million barrels from a build of 3.21 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would rise by about 2.366 million barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration report on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the fear of geopolitical risks in the Middle East might boost WTI prices. Israel and Hamas began a fresh round of negotiations in their more than six-month-old Gaza war this week, but those talks have yielded no agreement. Additionally, a potential Iranian strike on Israel for a suspected air strike on its embassy in Syria on April 1 is likely to cap the downside of WTI prices for the time being. 

• WTI struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid mixed fundamental cues.
• Concerns about the worsening Middle East act as a tailwind for the black liquid.
• Signs of cooling fuel demand might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's goodish bounce from the $84.00 mark, or over a one-week low and oscillate in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. The commodity currently trades around the $85.75-$85.80 region and remains well supported by concerns about the worsening Middle East crisis.

Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have yielded no agreement. Adding to this, a possible Iranian retaliation over a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy in Syria raises the risk that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate across the Middle East, putting the Oil supply at risk and acting as a tailwind for the black liquid, though a substantial rise in US Crude inventories cap the upside.

Official data published by the Energy Information Administration showed an estimated US Oil inventory build of 5.8 million barrels for the week to April 5, much more market expectations and a build of 3.2 million barrels for the previous week. Adding to this, an unexpected build in gasoline inventories pointed to signs of cooling in fuel demand, which, in turn, keeps a lid on Crude Oil prices.

Furthermore, the hotter US consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday forced investors to push back their expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to September from June. This, in turn, is expected to hamper economic activity and further dent fuel consumption, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for Crude Oil prices.

Moving ahead, traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI). This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, should drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the US Dollar-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices.

• The Oil price consolidates near $85.00 ahead of the US Inflation data for March.
• US inflation data will provide cues about when the Fed could start reducing interest rates.
• Iran’s direct involvement in the war in Gaza and more Ukraine attacks on Russian oil refineries could tighten the oil supply further.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, remain supported near $85.00 ahead of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The inflation data for march will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoting to rate cuts in the June meeting.

The inflation data is expected to remain stubborn due to higher oil prices, rentals, and insurance costs and portfolio management fees.

The Oil price corrects after printing a fresh five-month high at $87.50. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East region keep the Oil demand intact. Israel’s proposal of ceasefire doesn’t meet various Hamas demands, but the latter has commented that it would study further and revert to mediators. Hamas wants Israel to withdraw its forces and allow Palestinians to return home, who were displaced due to war in Gaza.

Fears of Iran’s direct intervention in the Israel-Palestine war deepen as the Israeli army has announced that they are ready to invade Rafah, the last resort for Palestinians who have been displaced.

Iran’s entry from the front to war at Gaza will significantly disrupt the oil supply chain. Iran is the third largest oil producer of the OPEC, and its direct involvement in war will tighten the Oil market significantly, which will have a positive impact on the Oil price.

In the eastern region of Europe, Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure have also kept fears of oil supply shocks unabated.

• WTI extends its downside near $84.60 on Wednesday.
• The bigger-than-expected build in US crude inventories weighs on the black gold. 
• The uncertainty over Gaza ceasefire talks and ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the downside of WTI. 

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $84.60 on Wednesday. The black gold trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day amid the US crude stock build and profit-taking ahead of the release of the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the FOMC Minutes, due later on Wednesday.

The recent US employment report last week has triggered speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay interest rate cuts this year. Investors will closely watch the US CPI inflation data for March, as it could offer some insights about the inflation trajectory and the path of the Fed’s monetary policy. The firmer-than-expected outcome might lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated WTI price.

Furthermore, the bigger-than-expected build in US crude inventories exerts some selling pressure on WTI prices. US crude oil inventories for the week ending April 5 increased by 3.034 million barrels from the previous week's decline of 2.286M million barrels. The market consensus estimated that stocks would rise by about 2.415 million barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday.

The leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy said that the Strait of Hormuz might be closed if necessary. About a fifth of the volume of the world's total oil consumption passes through the strait every day. This, in turn, might trigger the fear of oil supply disruption and cap the downside of WTI prices. 

On Tuesday, Hamas stated that an Israeli proposal for a ceasefire in their war in Gaza did not match the conditions of Palestinian militant groups, but that it would consider the offer further. Oil traders will monitor the developments surrounding the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing tensions could raise concerns about a tight market. 

• WTI prices gain ground on failure of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Israel's intention to proceed with its plans to invade the Rafah enclave in Gaza, refraining from specifying a date.
• Mexico's Pemex could reduce Crude exports by at least 330,000 bpd in May.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price rebounds after a two-day decline, edging up to nearly $86.30 per barrel during Tuesday's European trading session. The surge in Crude oil prices followed the failure of the latest ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Egypt on Monday.

Earlier discussions for a ceasefire had halted a multi-session rally, causing WTI to break its six-day winning streak. This was due to the anticipation that geopolitical tensions might ease. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday that Israel intends to carry out its plans to invade the Rafah enclave in Gaza, without specifying a date. Additionally, a senior Hamas official stated that they have rejected the latest ceasefire proposal put forward by Israel during the talks in Cairo.

The ongoing conflict carries the heightened risk of drawing in other regional countries, notably Iran, a significant supporter of Hamas and the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). An Iranian retaliation to the suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria last week could potentially embroil the oil market in the conflict. However, Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack.

Mexico's state energy company, Pemex, plans to reduce Crude exports by at least 330,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May. This decision will affect customers in the United States (US), Europe, and Asia, leading to a reduction in supply by a third. The move follows Pemex's directive to its trading arm, PMI Comercio Internacional, to withdraw 436,000 bpd of Maya, Isthmus, and Olmeca crudes this month. This decision aims to meet the needs of domestic refineries as Pemex aims for energy self-sufficiency.

• WTI prices gain momentum near $86.00 on Tuesday. 
• The ongoing Middle East tensions, a key region for oil production, might boost WTI prices. 
• The expectation that the Fed might delay interest rate cuts this year drags black gold lower. 

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $86.25 on Tuesday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East conflict raise concern about the crude supply disruption, boosting WTI prices near the six-month top.

On the weekend, Israel withdrew its forces from Khan Younis in southern Gaza, resulting in one of the lowest military levels since the conflict with Hamas started in October. WTI prices trimmed gains following this headline. However, the uncertainty surrounding Iran's reaction after the attack on its consulate in Syria last week might cap the downside of the black gold. A top Iranian military advisor warned Israel over the weekend that its embassies could be targeted, fueling concern that the Middle East conflict could broaden. Additionally, the strikes on Russian refineries have also raised the geopolitical risk premium.

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) prediction for 2024 oil demand has risen as traders shift from bearishness to optimism, bolstered by recent improved manufacturing surveys in China, the United States, and India.

On the other hand, the US labor market report on Friday came in better than the market estimation, indicating the US economy ended the first quarter on solid ground. This report could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay interest rate cuts this year, which might drag WTI prices lower. It’s worth noting that high interest rates have caused oil prices to fall in the past, as it can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. 

Oil traders will monitor the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock on Tuesday. Later this week, the US and Chinese March Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will be due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These events could offer some hints about the economic health of the world's top two oil consumers.