Quotes for energy resources WTI US Crude Oil Spot (WTI)

• WTI extends its upside to $69.95 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• A possible tightening of US sanctions on Russian oil and further China stimulus measures lift the WTI price. 
• OPEC cuts demand growth outlook for 2024-2025 for five months in a row. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.95 on Thursday. The WTI price edges higher amid concerns over sluggish global demand growth and possible tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran.

The Biden administration on Wednesday is considering stricter sanctions on Russia’s oil trade to increase pressure on the Kremlin, just weeks before Donald Trump returns to the White House, per Bloomberg. Additionally, the European Union agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday because of its ongoing war in Ukraine. This, in turn, could tighten global crude supplies and lift the WTI price. 

Growing expectations of further China stimulus contribute to the WTI’s price. Chinese authorities said on Monday it would adopt an "appropriately loose" monetary policy in 2025 as Beijing tries to boost its economy with the first easing of its stance in 14 years. "This has sparked optimism in the oil market, with traders hopeful that these initiatives could drive higher oil consumption," said Li Xing Gan, financial markets strategist consultant to Exness.

A fall in US crude inventories last week might underpin the black gold price. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending December 6 declined by 1.425 million barrels, compared to a fall of 5.073 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.1 million barrels. 

On the other hand, OPEC cut its forecasts for demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the fifth straight month on Wednesday. "OPEC are squaring up to reality about what they are facing, the (demand growth forecast) cuts highlight that they have their hands full in terms of trying to balance this market heading into 2025," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.

• Crude Oil markets rallied to push WTI to $70/barrel.
• Barrel prices jumped after the EIA posted a larger-than-expected stocks drawdown.
• OPEC has lowered its global Crude Oil demand forecast, but China hopes remain.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices rallied on Wednesday, jumping around 2.75% and clipping into $70 per barrel after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a steeper drawdown in US Crude Oil reserves than energy traders anticipated. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecasts for global Crude Oil demand growth, however barrel traders are still banking on growing energy demand from China to sop up the extra.

According to the EIA, US Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ended December 6 fell by 1.425 million barrels, below the forecast -1.1 million and declining further from the previous week’s decline of over 5 million barrels. With US Crude Oil reserve drying up in the pipe, barrel traders found the buy button on the expectation that US processors will be forced to increase the pace of their market buying.

OPEC reduced its forecasts for global Crude Oil demand growth in the coming year, dragging the Crude Oil consortium’s lofty expectations closer in-line with the more demure forecasts posted by the EIA. OPEC now anticipates that global oil demand will increase by 1.61 million barrels per day in 2024, a reduction from last month's forecast of 1.82 million barrels. Additionally, for 2025, they have revised their growth estimate down to 1.45 million barrels per day from the previous 1.54 million barrels.

Crude Oil price forecast

Crude Oil prices have been traveling in a rough downside wedge since dipping below $66 per barrel in September. WTI bids, despite finding a technical floor below $68 per barrel, have been unable to decisively pierce above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and intraday price action is poised to continue battling the moving average in the near term.

Despite barrel prices seemingly held aloft of further downside pressure from a bidding zone just north of the $66 key handle, topside momentum remains limited, and Crude Oil bulls will continue to find themselves short-changed as swing highs continue to grind lower below the 200-day EMA near $73.80.

WTI daily chart

• WTI price appreciates as China announced plans to adopt proactive fiscal stimulus measures next year.
• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 0.499 million barrels against an expected decrease of 1.30 million barrels.
• Traders are anticipating the upcoming OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report to evaluate crude Oil market trends for the year ahead.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around $68.80 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude Oil prices gained ground as the demand outlook improved following the Politburo’s announcement that China to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” approach to fiscal stimulus next year. This would mark a departure from the more cautious tone of the past decade. potentially boosting energy demand from the world’s largest crude importer.

Additionally, China's crude Oil imports increased in November for the first time in seven months, rising over 14% year-on-year. On the supply side, the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed that US crude Oil stockpiles rose by 0.499 million barrels for the week ending December 6, compared to a 1.232 million-barrel increase in the previous week. Market expectations had anticipated a decrease of 1.30 million barrels.

Moreover, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lend support to WTI prices. Over the weekend, turbulence intensified as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow, where they were granted political asylum, marking the end of a 50-year dictatorship.

Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring key US inflation data, which could shape the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. The US CPI inflation is estimated to rise to 2.7% YoY in November from 2.6% in October. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding Food & Energy, is expected to remain consistent at a 3.3% increase YoY. Traders are now pricing in nearly an 85.8% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Traders are expected to closely monitor the upcoming OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), which addresses key issues impacting the global Oil market and offers a forecast for crude Oil market trends in the year ahead.

• WTI trades with mild gains near $68.20 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Discouraging Chinese economic data and a surprise climb in crude inventories drag the WTI lower. 
• US crude stockpiles rose 499K barrels last week, noted API. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.20 on Wednesday. The WTI price remains on the defensive amid a surprise climb in crude inventories and weak demand outlooks, particularly in China. However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might cap the downside for the WTI price. 

WTI prices edges lower after disappointing China's international trade data on Tuesday. China's exports rose 6.7% YoY in November, while Imports fell by 3.9% YoY during the same period. Both the readings came below the market consensus. Additionally, China also reported a weaker-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) on Monday, underlining the ongoing sluggish domestic demands. This, in turn, could undermine the WTI price as China is  the world's biggest oil importer, China's demand outlook has a direct influence on the crude markets

An increase in US crude inventories last week might weigh on the black gold price. The US American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending December 6 rose by 499,000 barrels, compared to a rise of 1.232 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.3 million barrels. 

On the other hand, turbulence in the Middle East increased over the weekend as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow and were granted political asylum, ending 50 years of a brutal dictatorship. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in tthe Middle East could help limit the WTI’s losses. 

• WTI edges higher to near $67.90 in Monday's early Asian session. 
• Middle East turmoil and China’s policy shift could underpin the WTI price in the near term.
• The cautious stance of the Fed might cap the WTI’s downside. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $67.90 on Tuesday. The WTI price recovers amid the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. 

Over the weekend, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow and were granted political asylum, ending 50 years of a brutal dictatorship. The downfall of the Syrian leader regime could lead to a conflict involving regional countries, lifting the WTI price. 

Tomomichi Akuta of Mitsubishi UFJ Research noted that these geopolitical risks are bolstering crude prices but warned that Saudi Arabia’s recent price cuts and extended OPEC+ output constraints underscore weak demand fundamentals, especially from China.

Additionally, the black gold might be supported by the rising expectations that China will announce further stimulus measures and will unveil its first “moderately loose” monetary policy shift since 2010. "The easing of monetary policy stance in China is likely the driver of the oil price rebounding, supporting risk sentiment," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. 

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to deliver another interest rate cut on December 18. Still, the US economic data will force the Fed's outlook on interest rates to tilt more hawkish. This, in turn, might support the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated Canadian Dollar (CAD). 

• WTI attracts some buyers and snaps a three-day losing streak to a multi-week trough.
• Rising Middle East tensions turn out to be a key factor underpinning the commodity.
• Concerns about slowing demand in China and the global supply glut could cap gains.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices show some resilience below the $67.00 round-figure mark and attract some buyers at the start of a new week. The commodity currently trades just below mid-$67.00s, up 0.60% for the day, and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to a three-week low touched on Friday. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, last week decided to postpone planned supply increases by three months until April and extend the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026. Moreover, the worsening Russia-Ukraine war, along with the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by rebels, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices. 

Furthermore, signs of US economic resilience, along with hopes that US President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary policies will boost fuel demand, offer some support to the black liquid. Meanwhile, Saudi's price cuts to Asian buyers highlighted concerns about a slowdown in demand from China – the world's top oil importer. Adding to this, worries about a potential supply glut might cap any meaningful upside for Crude Oil prices. 

Furthermore, a closely followed report by Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of oil and gas rigs deployed in the US hit the highest since mid-September last week. This pointed to rising output from the world's biggest crude producer and might further contribute to keeping a lid on Crude Oil prices. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move for the commodity.

• WTI drifts lower for the third straight day despite OPEC+ decision to delay production rise. 
• Concerns about a slowing demand in China overshadow geopolitical risks and exert pressure.
• Traders now look to the US NFP report, which will drive the USD and provide a fresh impetus.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices remain under some selling pressure for the third consecutive day on Friday and trade near the lower end of the weekly range, around the $67.80 region during the Asian session.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, on Thursday, postponed planned supply increases by three months until April and extended the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026. The announcement suggested that the cartel is worried about a potential supply glut and a slowdown in global demand, especially in China – the world's top oil importer. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the black liquid. 

Meanwhile, the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing tensions in the Middle East keep geopolitical risks premium in play. Furthermore, signs of US economic resilience, along with hopes that US President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary policies will boost fuel demand, could act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The closely watched US jobs data will play a key role in influencing the interest rate outlook in the US, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the commodity. Meanwhile, the lack of buying and the aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors bearish traders. This, in turn, suggests that any attempted recovery in Crude Oil prices could be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

• WTI drifts lower for the second successive day, though any meaningful slide seems elusive.
• Concerns that geopolitical tensions can cause supply disruptions could offer some support.
• Traders now look to the OPEC+ meeting for some impetus ahead of the key US NFP report.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices remain under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Thursday and have now reversed a major part of weekly gains. The commodity trades below mid-$68.00s, down 0.30% for the day during the Asian session, though the downside remains cushioned ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later today. 

Reports suggest that the cartel will further delay plans to increase production until at least the second quarter of 2025 amid concerns over slowing oil demand, especially China – the world's top importer. Furthermore, the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing tensions in the Middle East keep geopolitical risks premium in play, which, in turn, could act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.

Meanwhile, the official data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US oil inventories shrank more than expected, by 5.07 million barrels in the final week of November. Moreover, signs of US economic resilience, and hopes that US President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary policies will boost fuel demand, should limit losses for Crude Oil prices. 

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The closely watched employment details will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path. This, in turn, will influence the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to Crude Oil prices.

• WTI consolidates its recent losses to a two-week low amid mixed cues.
• Easing supply disruption worries and a stronger USD act as a headwind.
• Traders seem reluctant ahead of OPEC+ meeting on Thursday and US data.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday and oscillate in a range below the $68.00/barrel mark during the Asian session. 

A ceasefire deal between Israel and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group eased concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor that keeps the black liquid depressed near a two-week low touched on Monday. Furthermore, the recent US Dollar (USD) strength is seen undermining demand for USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil prices.

That said, the worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps geopolitical risks premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the black liquid. Apart from this, expectations that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) would further delay plans to increase production amid persistent concerns over slowing demand growth contribute to limiting the downside for Crude Oil prices. 

Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for important US macro releases scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the US monthly employment details, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The crucial data would influence expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to Crude Oil prices.

• WTI drops to near $68.25 on a stronger USD in Monday’s early European session. 
• Improved Chinese economic data and geopolitical risks might cap the WTI’s downside. 
• Oil traders brace for the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday for fresh impetus. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.25 on Monday. The WTI price edges lower as the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly drags the USD-denominated commodity price lower. 

US President-elect Donald Trump's statement that he will impose tariffs has led to fears that it could slow the pace of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) easing cycle, boosting the USD. The rise of the USD against other currencies generally lowers oil demand by making oil more expensive for those who use foreign currencies. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the money markets have priced in a nearly 67.1% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, while there is a 32.9% probability that the policy rate will remain unchanged.

The encouraging Chinese economic data released on Monday could provide some support to the black gold, as China is a major consumer of crude oil in the global market. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI jumped to 51.5 in November versus 50.3 in October, beating the estimation of 50.5. This growth was driven by the increase in foreign orders since February 2023 and exports.

Furthermore, heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia raise concerns about supply disruptions from the region, which might lift the WTI price. Iran extended its support to the Syrian government after insurgents took control of Syria’s Aleppo city.

Looking ahead, Oil traders will keep an eye on the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allies) meeting on Thursday to discuss output policy for 2025. The meeting was originally scheduled for Sunday. "An indefinite delay may be the best case for oil prices, given that earlier rounds of delays by a month or so have failed to drive higher oil prices in line with what OPEC+ intended,” said Tony Sycamore, IG's Sydney-based market analyst.

• WTI may find support as traders assess reports that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of breaching the ceasefire agreement.
• Russian President Putin warned of a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine.
• Traders seek clarity on the production strategy of the OPEC+ at the rescheduled meeting on December 5.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price retraces its recent gains, trading around $68.40 per barrel during the early European hours on Friday. However, this downside of the crude Oil prices could be restrained as markets assess reports that Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of breaching the ceasefire agreement.

Additionally, reports suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine, following Moscow's recent large-scale attacks on key energy infrastructure.

Traders remained cautious, seeking clarity on the production strategy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) after a four-day postponement of a key meeting. At the rescheduled meeting on December 5, the alliance will deliberate on whether to proceed with restoring supplies or extend production cuts into 2025 to avoid oversupplying the global market.

Markets are keeping a close watch on upcoming US data for insights into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Rising borrowing costs in the United States (US), the world’s largest Oil consumer, weigh on economic activity, subsequently reducing Oil demand.

On Wednesday, US core PCE prices for October met expectations, keeping investor hopes alive for another rate cut in December. However, other data indicated a resilient economy, suggesting that the Fed may take a cautious approach in the coming year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 55.9% a week ago. However, they expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged during its January and March meetings.

• WTI price trades sideways around $68.85 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• The ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict highlighted risks to Russian oil supplies, which might lift the WTI price. 
• OPEC+ postpones its next meeting on output policy to December 5 from December 1. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.85 on Friday. The WTI price steadies as the escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict offsets a less aggressive rate cut expectation from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Oil traders will closely monitor the developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Any signs of escalation could raise concerns about energy supplies, particularly winter gas flows to Central and Eastern Europe, boosting the WTI price. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that if Ukraine gets nuclear weapons, Russia will use all means of destruction. 

Wednesday’s US economic data suggested that the progress on lowering inflation appears to have stalled in recent months, which could diminish the expectation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in 2025. However, they expect the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meetings in January and March. It’s worth noting that slower-than-expected rate reductions would keep borrowing costs high, which could slow economic activity and lower oil demand. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) postponed its December meeting, fueling speculation about delayed production hikes and supply adjustments. OPEC+, which accounts for about half of world oil output, is scheduled to meet on December 5 after delaying its earlier meeting. 

Key considerations include whether to prolong the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day slated to phase out in December. Reports suggest members are considering delaying planned output increases for January amid persistent demand uncertainties. A further delay has mostly been factored into oil prices already, said Suvro Sarkar at DBS Bank. "The only question is whether it's a one-month pushback, or three, or even longer.”

• WTI price remains steady near $68.65 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
• Israel agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants, effective Wednesday.
• US crude stocks fell by 1.844 million barrels last week, according to the EIA. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.65 on Wednesday. The WTI price holds steady as a large surprise crude draw offsets a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. The oil market might be somewhat quiet due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday. 

The latest US economic data indicated that the progress on lowering inflation appears to have stalled in recent months, which could diminish the expectation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in 2025. The markets are now pricing in nearly 66.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, up from 55.7% before the PCE data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

However, they anticipate the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meetings in January and March. It’s worth noting that slower-than-expected rate reductions would keep borrowing costs high, which could slow economic activity and lower oil demand.

Israel approved a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants that would end nearly 14 months of fighting linked to the war in the Gaza Strip, effective Wednesday. The easing geopolitical risks could drag the WTI price lower. "The real question will be for how long it (the ceasefire) will truly be honored," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

However, a decline in US crude inventories last week might boost the black gold price. The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report showed Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending November 22 fell by 1.844 million barrels, compared to a rise of 545,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.3 million barrels. 

Meanwhile, gasoline stocks added 3.3 million barrels in the week to November 22. This compared with an inventory build of 2.1 million barrels for the previous week.

• WTI price rebounds to near $68.75 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• US crude oil stocks fell by 5.935 million barrels last week, according to the API on Tuesday.
• The possible Middle East peace deal caps the WTI’s upside. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.75 on Wednesday. The WTI price edges higher amid the uncertainty for the US oil industry and the large surprise crude draw. 

US President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. The US oil industry might face an unpredictable outlook if Trump follows through on newly promised blanket tariffs on imports from these countries. 

"These would obviously be very economically disturbing tariffs if they were put into place," Josh Zive, senior principal at Bracewell LLP, told S&P Global Commodity Insights. "This is what, probably initially, ends up persuading them not to impose them—the energy sector is one that's going to be hit most dramatically by these sorts of tariffs,” added Zive.

A decline in US crude inventories last week might boost the black gold price. The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending November 22 fell by 5.935 million barrels, compared to a rise of 4.753 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by just 250,000 barrels.

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Israel approved a ceasefire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants that would end nearly 14 months of fighting linked to the war in the Gaza Strip, per the AP News. The easing geopolitical risks could drag the WTI price lower. 

• WTI price attracts some sellers to near $68.55 in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• The possible Middle East peace deal caps the WTI’s upside. 
• Expectations for a revival of China's imports could boost the black gold. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.55 on Tuesday. The WTI price edges lower after the reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, citing unnamed senior U.S. officials. However, the escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia's actions in Ukraine might cap the WTI’s downside. 

Israeli and US officials said Israel and Lebanon appear to be close to a ceasefire deal, with the Israeli cabinet set to meet on Tuesday to discuss it, per BBC. Giovanni Staunovo of UBS noted, "It seems the news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is behind the price drop, though no supply has been disrupted due to the conflict between the two countries and the risk premium in oil has been low already before the latest price decline." 

However, Oil traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding geopolitical risks. Ukraine launched US-made longer-range missiles targeting a military base inside Russian territory last week. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of lowering its doctrine to use nuclear weapons and fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine. The escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Iran raised concerns over potential supply disruptions, which might boost the WTI in the near term. 

Furthermore, the signs of a recovery in Chinese oil demand lift the black gold price as China is the world's largest crude oil importer. According to LSEG Oil Research, China's crude import may reach 11.4 million barrels per day this month due to price cuts. Additionally, S&P Global estimated that China's oil demand may grow by 1.1% to 17.29 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 1.7% to 17.59 million bpd in 2025. 

• WTI may regain its ground due to rising geopolitical tensions involving major Oil producers, Russia and Iran.
• Iran took measures such as activating advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment following a resolution passed by the UN atomic watchdog.
• Oil prices gained further support from increased demand in two of the world’s largest Oil importers, China and India.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price pauses its two-day rally, trading around $70.80 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Monday. However, downside risks to Oil prices remain limited due to escalating geopolitical tensions involving major Oil producers, Russia and Iran, which have sparked concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Last week, Oil prices edged higher as geopolitical tensions intensified following Ukraine's first attack on Russia using US and British weapons. In response, Russia launched a newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile. “The recent exchanges indicate the war has entered a new and dangerous phase, raising concerns of disruptions to supplies,” analysts at ANZ, led by Daniel Hynes, stated in a note, according to Reuters.

On Thursday, Iran responded to a resolution passed by the UN atomic watchdog by initiating measures such as activating advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment. The UN nuclear watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors had passed the resolution, urging Iran to enhance cooperation with the agency and requesting a "comprehensive" report to press Iran into renewed nuclear negotiations.

Meanwhile, Oil prices received additional support from rising demand in two of the world’s largest Oil importers, China and India. China’s crude imports rebounded in November as lower prices encouraged stockpiling, while Indian refiners boosted crude throughput by 3% year-over-year to 5.04 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, driven by strong fuel export activity.

• WTI price gains momentum to near 70.25 in Friday’s Asian session. 
• The supply worries due to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war lift the WTI price. 
• US crude oil inventories built and a stronger USD might cap the WTI’s upside. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.25 on Friday. The WTI price edges higher as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict raises the fear of crude supply disruption. 

The fears of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict fuelled the WTI price this week after Ukraine used missiles supplied by the US and UK into Russian territory. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility. Putin also warned the West that Moscow could attack any country's military installations that utilised weapons against Russia, per Reuters. "The market's focus has now shifted to heightened concerns about an escalation in the war in Ukraine," said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB.

On the other hand, a rise in US crude inventories last week might weigh on the black gold. The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report showed Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending November 15 increased by 0.545 million barrels, compared to a rise of 2.089 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by 0.400 million barrels. 

Furthermore, the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might cap the upside for the USD-denominated oil for the time being as it makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, currently trades near 107.05 after hitting a fresh year-to-date high of around 107.15.

• WTI price holds steady near $68.95 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• US crude stocks rose by more than expected last week, according to the EIA. 
• The conflict between Russia-Ukraine and concern around future oil supply disruptions might help limit the WTI’s losses. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.95 on Thursday. The WTI price trades flat as small US crude oil inventories built last week offset the escalating war between major oil producers Russia and Ukraine.

The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report showed crude stocks rose last week, which weighs on the black gold price. Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending November 15 increased by 0.545 million barrels, compared to a rise of 2.089 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by 0.400 million barrels. 

Weak Chinese demand contributes to the WTI’s downside as China is the world's largest crude importer. Data released earlier this week showed that China's crude oil demand fell -5.4% YoY in October. Chinese demand growth is set to reach just 140,000 bpd this year, a tenth of the 1.4 million bpd demand growth of 2023, according to the IEA. 

On the other hand, the worries about the intensifying war between major oil producers Russia and Ukraine, and subsequent concern around potential oil supply disruption might boost the WTI price. On Tuesday, Russia’s defense ministry said that Ukraine hit a facility in the Bryansk region with six ATACAMS missiles. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike.

"These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.

• WTI price steadies near $69.30 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Russia’s defence ministry said Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory. 
• Weaker Chinese demand could weigh on the WTI price.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.30 on Wednesday. The WTI price trades flat after Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time. 

On Tuesday, Russia’s defense ministry said that Ukraine hit a facility in the Bryansk region with six ATACAMS missiles. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike. The rising geopolitical tensions could boost the WTI price for the time being. "This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes said.

Additionally, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of a "crushing response" to Israel's recent air strikes on Iran, which raise concerns about the region's crude supply disruption. This, in turn, might contribute to the WTI’s upside. 

On the other hand, China's demand for oil slowed dramatically this year. China's crude oil demand fell -5.4% YoY in October, which might exert some selling pressure on the black gold as China is the world's second-largest crude consumer. Chinese demand growth is set to reach just 140,000 bpd this year, a tenth of the 1.4 million bpd demand growth of 2023, according to the IEA.