Quotes for energy resources WTI US Crude Oil Spot (WTI)

• WTI price trades on a flat note near $73.65 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• A firmer Greenback undermines the USD-denominated WTI price. 
• Potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and increasing demands could cap the downside for WTI. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $73.65 on Friday. The WTI price flat lines as the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly offsets concerns over supply disruptions. 

A strengthening of the USD on the cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) undermines the WTI price as it makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday showed that the Fed policymakers expressed concern about inflation and the impact that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could have. Fed officials indicated that they would be moving more slowly on rate reductions because of the uncertainty.

On the other hand, mounting concerns over supply disruptions and increasing demands could support the black gold. The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia's oil exports ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. 

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) earlier this week showed the US oil inventory declined last week, signalling rising energy demand amid a harsh winter in the US, Europe, and Asia. 

 

• WTI price attracts some sellers to $72.40 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• The firmer USD weighs on the WTI, but the fear of supply disruptions might cap its downside. 
• US crude oil inventories declined by 959,000 last week, according to the EIA.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $72.40 on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower amid the stronger US Dollar (USD). However, the concerns over supply disruptions might cap the downside for the WTI price. 

A strengthening of the Greenback exerts some selling pressure on the black gold as it makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. "The dollar's safe haven status is appreciated as fears of renewed U.S. inflationary pressure grow," said Tamas Varga, an analyst with oil broker PVM.

US crude oil inventories fell for a seventh consecutive week, which might support the WTI price. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending January 3 declined by 959,000 barrels, compared to a fall of 1.178 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 250,000 barrels. 

Additionally, new sanctions on Iranian and Russian crude exports could limit global oil supplies and boost the black metal price. The Biden administration plans to impose more sanctions on Russia's oil exports ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. 

Oil traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Thursday. All eyes will be on the US employment data for December, which will be released on Friday. Any signs of a solid labor market could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

• WTI price gains traction to near $74.15 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
• US crude oil inventories fell by 4.022 million barrels last week, according to the API. 
• Oil traders brace for the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday ahead of the US December NFP report. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $74.15 on Wednesday. The WTI price edges higher amid expected higher Chinese demand and a larger drop in US crude stocks. 

A large drop in US crude inventories last week provides some support to the WTI. The API weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending January 3 fell by 4.022 million barrels, compared to a decline of 1.442 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 250,000 barrels. Furthermore, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the WTI price in the near term. 

On Tuesday, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's top economic planner, issued a guideline for building a unified national market, breaking down market barriers to boost domestic demand while enhancing openness. The positive development surrounding the Chinese stimulus measure could boost the black gold price as China is the world's second-largest economy. 

”While the market is currently range-bound, it is recording gains on the back of improved demand expectations fuelled by holiday traffic and China’s economic pledges," Hilal said in a morning note. "However, the primary trend remains bearish.”

Looking ahead, Oil traders will keep an eye on the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is due later on Wednesday. On Friday, the US employment data for December will be in the spotlight. Economists expect 154,000 new jobs for December, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% during the same report period. In case of a stronger-than-expecetd outcome, this could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

• WTI consolidates after the overnight pullback from a nearly three-month high.
• Concerns about weak demand from China and rising oil supply cap the upside.
• Worries about tighter Russian and Iranian supply support to the commodity.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle for a firm intraday direction on Tuesday and oscillate in a narrow trading band, below the $73.00 round figure through the early European session. The commodity, for now, seems to have stalled its retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-$74.00s, or a nearly three-month top touched on Monday amid mixed fundamental cues. 

Concerns about weak demand from China – the world's top oil importer – and the rising supply from non-OPEC countries turn out to be key factors acting as a headwind for the black liquid. Furthermore, the volume of global crude exports declined in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. This, along with expectations that slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025 could dent fuel demand, contribute to capping Crude Oil prices. 

That said, worries about tighter Russian and Iranian supply, amid widening Western sanctions checked losses, should continue to offer support to Crude Oil prices and help limit any meaningful downside. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent positive move witnessed over the past month or so has run out of steam and positioning for any further depreciating move in the commodity. 

Traders might also opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week's release of the FOMC minutes and the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics, which, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD-denominated commodities and help determine the next leg of a directional move for Crude Oil prices.

• WTI continues to decline despite rising energy demand fueled by colder weather and Beijing's economic stimulus efforts.
• Oil prices could gain support as OPEC's oil production fell in December, largely driven by the UAE's supply cuts.
• Biden administration plans to impose further sanctions to target Russian Oil revenues.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $72.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, crude Oil prices were bolstered by bullish factors, including higher energy demand driven by colder weather and Beijing's economic stimulus measures.

Crude Oil prices may find support as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Oil production declined in December, primarily due to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) efforts to implement supply cuts to stabilize global Oil markets, according to Bloomberg (gated). Output dropped by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 27.05 million bpd, with modest increases in Libya and Nigeria offset by decreases in Iran and Kuwait, as reported by a Bloomberg survey.

This development comes against the backdrop of OPEC+, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, led by Saudi Arabia, limiting production in recent years to support prices amid weak demand and abundant US supplies. In their most recent meeting, the group further delayed plans to restore output.

US President Joe Biden is set to ban new offshore Oil and Gas development along most US coastlines, a decision that President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to increase domestic energy production, may find challenging to overturn. The move is largely symbolic, as it will not affect regions where Oil and Gas development is already underway.

Additionally, the Biden administration plans to impose further sanctions on Russia in response to its war on Ukraine. According to three sources cited by Reuters, these measures will target Russia's Oil revenues, including actions against tankers transporting Russian crude.

Beijing's economic stimulus efforts are bolstering Oil demand in the world's largest crude importer. In a bid to revive its struggling economy, Beijing is ramping up fiscal stimulus, announcing on Friday that it will significantly boost funding through ultra-long-dated treasury bonds in 2025 to stimulate business investment and initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending.

• WTI price could strengthen as colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to increase heating Oil demand.
• Oil prices increased as a result of Beijing's economic stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing its struggling economy.
• Goldman Sachs projects that Iran's exports will decline by Q2 due to stricter sanctions under the incoming Trump administration.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades around $73.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday, nearing its highest level since October 2024. Investors are closely monitoring the potential impact of colder weather in the United States (US) and Europe is expected to increase heating Oil demand, providing further support to crude Oil prices.

Additionally, Beijing's economic stimulus efforts are bolstering fuel demand in the world's largest crude importer. In a bid to revive its struggling economy, Beijing is ramping up fiscal stimulus, announcing on Friday that it will significantly boost funding through ultra-long-dated treasury bonds in 2025 to stimulate business investment and initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending.

According to Reuters, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has committed to deepen capital markets opening during a meeting with foreign institutions. China’s economy is underpinned by solid fundamentals and demonstrates resilience amid a complex global environment.

On Friday, the Financial Times reported that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) anticipates an interest rate cut at an appropriate time this year. Given their close trade relationship, fluctuations in China’s economy often have a notable impact on Australian markets.

Goldman Sachs anticipates that Iran's production and exports will decline by the second quarter due to expected policy shifts and stricter sanctions under the administration of incoming US President Donald Trump. Iran's output could decrease by 300,000 barrels per day, falling to 3.25 million bpd by the second quarter, according to their forecast.

• WTI prices continue to rise as governments worldwide are expected to increase policy support to revive economic growth.
• China's state planner, the NDRC, outlined plans to significantly boost funding through ultra-long treasury bonds to support "two new" programs.
• EIA Crude Oil Stocks decreased by 1.178 million barrels, marking the sixth consecutive drop in crude Oil stocks.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues its winning streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around $73.00 per barrel during the Asian session on Friday. WTI price reached two and a half-month high at $73.39 on Thursday. Crude Oil prices were buoyed by optimism that governments worldwide would ramp up policy support to revive economic growth, potentially boosting fuel demand.

However, factory activity in Asia, Europe, and the US ended 2024 on a weak note, as expectations for the new year dimmed due to growing trade risks associated with the incoming Donald Trump presidency and China's fragile economic recovery.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's state planner, expressed confidence in achieving continued economic recovery in 2025. In a statement on Friday, it highlighted plans to significantly increase funding from ultra-long treasury bonds to support "two new" programs, with expectations for steady consumption growth throughout the year.

Additionally, a Financial Times report noted that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) anticipates an interest rate cut this year at an appropriate time. Traders are closely monitoring the potential recovery in China’s economy and its effect on Oil demand. In a New Year’s address on Tuesday, President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his commitment to prioritizing economic growth in the world's largest oil-importing nation, promising more proactive policies to bolster China's economy in 2025.

Analysts at Capital Economics said in a note, referencing the purchasing managers' indexes data released on Thursday, "December PMIs for Asia were a mixed bag, but we continue to expect manufacturing activity and GDP growth in the region to remain subdued in the near term."

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decline in crude Oil stocks for the week ending December 27. EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change reported a 1.178 million-barrel decline, a smaller decrease than the market’s expectation of a 2.75 million-barrel drop. This marked the sixth consecutive drop in crude oil stocks. Additionally, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub decreased by 0.142 million barrels.

• WTI price posts modest gains near $71.60 in Thursday’s early European session.
• US crude oil inventories dropped by 1.442 million barrels last week, according to the API. 
• A slower path of the Fed easing cycle and the weak Chinese demand could weigh on the WTI. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.60 on Thursday. The WTI price trades with mild gains after the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed US crude stockpiles continued to shrink.

A fall in US crude inventories last week provides some support to the WTI. The API weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending December 27 declined by 1.442 million barrels, compared to a fall of 3.2 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 3.0 million barrels. Furthermore, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the WTI price in the near term. 

On the other hand, the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would slow the pace of the interest rate cuts in 2025 due to stubbornly high inflation might cap the upside for the black gold. The Fed officials indicated that it probably would only lower twice more in 2025. This, in turn, lifts the Greenback and exerts some selling pressure on the USD-denominated commodity price as it makes oil more expensive in other countries, which can reduce demand.

The recent data released on Thursday showed that China’s factory activity slowed its pace of expansion and came in weaker than expected in December. This reading raised concerns over a slowing economic recovery and weak demand in the world's second-largest economy, which might drag the WTI price lower.

 

• WTI price continues to gain ground following China’s NBS PMI release, indicating the manufacturing sector expanded in December.
• China's official Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.1 in December, down from 50.3 in the previous reading.
• US crude stockpiles are forecasted to have dropped by approximately 3 million barrels last week.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around $71.40 per barrel during the Asian session on Tuesday. Crude Oil prices have maintained their gains following the release of the NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which indicates that China's manufacturing sector expanded in December.

Factory output in China rose for the third consecutive month, though it slightly dipped to 50.1 in December, down from 50.3 in the previous report and below the market's expectation of 50.3. This data suggests that new stimulus measures are helping to support the economy of the world's largest crude Oil importer. Additionally, Chinese authorities have agreed to issue a record 3 trillion Yuan ($411 billion) in special treasury bonds in 2025 to boost economic growth, as reported by Reuters last week.

Oil prices could receive short-term support from a decline in US crude stockpiles, which are expected to have dropped by approximately 3 million barrels last week, per Reuters. However, a weak long-term demand outlook has put downward pressure on Oil prices. Traders are now awaiting US factory survey data for further insights into the demand outlook.

Meanwhile, Oil prices are poised for a modest annual decline of approximately 0.5%, after being stuck in a tight trading range for several months. As the market looks to the future, it anticipates a potentially turbulent year, driven by worries about an oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and the possible influence of the upcoming Trump administration on Oil policy, leading to a cautious sentiment.

• WTI prices rose as reports indicated that European energy companies are prioritizing Oil and gas for short-term profits.
• Oil prices are set for weekly gains, fueled by optimism that economic stimulus efforts will drive a recovery in China.
• Russia announced a federal emergency due to an Oil spill caused by two Russian tankers in the Black Sea.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher after registering losses in the previous session, trading around $69.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices are being bolstered by reports that major European energy companies are focusing on Oil and gas rather than renewables for short-term profits, a trend expected to continue into 2025.

This shift by Oil giants follows a global slowdown in the rollout of clean energy policies, with many governments delaying targets as energy prices spiked after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Oil prices are on track for a weekly increase, driven by optimism that economic stimulus efforts will spur a recovery in China, the world's largest Oil importer. The World Bank raised its growth forecast for China in 2024 and 2025 but cautioned that weak confidence and challenges in the property sector will continue to pressure the economy.

Traders were focused on China’s recent economic measures, including reports that officials have more flexibility to use government bond proceeds to stimulate growth, potentially boosting Oil demand from the leading consumer.

On Thursday, Russia declared a federal emergency in response to an Oil spill caused by two Russian tankers in the Black Sea, according to the Emergencies Ministry. The incident occurred on December 15 when the tankers were struck by a storm—one of the vessels split in half, while the other ran aground, per Reuters.

• WTI price moves little as trading activity remains subdued before the Christmas holiday.
• Oil prices received some support after recent data indicated that the US economy remained strong heading into the year-end.
• The third-largest Oil importer India's crude Oil imports, increased by 2.6% YoY to 19.07 million metric tons in November.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues to remain tepid for the second successive session, trading around $69.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, crude Oil prices found some support due to thin trading activity ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Additionally, Oil prices gained some support after US data showed that the economy of the United States (US), the largest Oil consumer, remained robust as the year-end approached. New orders for essential US-manufactured capital goods surged in November, driven by strong demand for machinery, while new home sales also rebounded, signaling that the US economy is on solid footing as the year ends.

Meanwhile, India's crude Oil imports, the third-largest in the world, increased by 2.6% year-on-year to 19.07 million metric tons in November, driven by strong demand amid rising economic and travel activity.

However, the prices of the black gold could find challenges due to concerns about potential oversupply during next year. European supply fears also eased after reports indicated that the Druzhba pipeline resumed operations following technical issues at a Russian pumping station.

The demand for dollar-denominated Oil faces challenges due to the stronger US Dollar (USD), which makes crude Oil more expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies. The Greenback receives support as traders are factoring in only two rate cuts in 2025 after Fed policymakers signaled fewer interest rate cuts next year due to a slowdown in the disinflation process.

In the Middle East, efforts by mediators Egypt, Qatar, and the US to end the fighting between Israel and Hamas have gained momentum this month, with Israeli and Palestinian officials noting that the gaps between the parties have narrowed. However, crucial differences remain unresolved, according to Reuters.

• WTI attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through.
• Easing worries about a slowdown in demand from China lends support to the commodity.
• The prospects for rising supply from non-OPEC+ nations might cap gains for Oil prices. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices edge higher for the second straight day on Monday and move away from over a one-week low, around the $68.40-$68.35 region touched on Friday. The commodity, however, lacks bullish conviction and trades around the $69.75-$69.80 area during the Asian session, up less than 0.50% for the day.

A weekend editorial from a media outlet affiliated with China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development hinted at further measures to support the recovery of the property market. This helps ease worries about a slowdown in demand, which, along with concerns about supply disruptions stemming from tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran, acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains below a two-week high touched on Friday in the wake of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report for November, which pointed to signs of inflation moderation. A softer buck tends to benefit USD-denominated commodities and turns out to be another factor supporting Crude Oil prices, though any meaningful gains seem elusive. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, recently decided to postpone planned supply increases by three months until April and extend the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026. Furthermore, the International Energy Agency highlighted increasing supply from non-OPEC+ nations, which, in turn, might cap Crude Oil prices. 

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further intraday appreciating move. Trades now look forward to the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to Crude Oil prices.

Crude oil prices edged lower with NYMEX WTI closing below $70/bbl while ICE Brent settled below $73/bbl yesterday. The oil market witnessed a second straight session of decline as the strengthening dollar weighs on the complex, ING’s commodity analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Strengthening USD weighs on the energy complex

“The latest data from Insights Global shows that refined product inventories in the ARA region increased by just 16kt over the week to 6.3mt. The additions in gasoil and gasoline stocks were balanced by the declines reported in other oil products stocks. Gasoil stocks in the ARA region increased by 57kt week-on-week to 2.2mt for the week ending 19 December.”

“In Singapore, Enterprise Singapore data shows that total oil product stocks increased by 9.7m barrels for a seventh straight week to 54.4m barrels as of 18 December, the highest since August 2020. Residue stocks increased by 11.05m barrels whilst light and middle distillate stocks decreased by 556k barrels and 813k barrels, respectively.”

“Meanwhile, US natural gas prices moved higher for a fourth consecutive session as weekly inventory numbers reported outflows, whilst expectations of a cold start to January raised hopes for increased consumption of the heating fuel. The weekly data shows that US gas storage decreased by 125Bcf last week, slightly lower than the 127Bcf increase the market was expecting.”

• WTI price, denominated in dollars, moves for a weekly decline due to a stronger US Dollar.
• Crude Oil prices struggle as central banks emphasize the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts.
• J.P. Morgan analysts projected that Oil supply will exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day next year.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losing streak for the fifth successive session, trading around $68.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices, denominated in dollars, are on track for a weekly decline due to a stronger US Dollar (USD). A higher US dollar makes crude Oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which in turn dampens Oil demand.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades hovers around 108.50, the highest level not seen since November 2022, following the Federal Reserve (Fed) implemented a hawkish 25 basis point (bps) rate cut on Wednesday. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, or ‘dot-plot,’ showed only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution regarding additional rate cuts, noting that inflation is likely to remain persistently above the central bank's 2% target. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its ultra-low interest rates as President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats loomed over Japan's export-driven economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates unchanged, with policymakers divided on the appropriate response to the country’s slowing economic growth.

According to Reuters, J.P. Morgan analysts projected that Oil supply will exceed demand by 1.2 million barrels per day. The Oil market is anticipated to face a surplus next year, as weakening economic activity and a sluggish Chinese economy further dampen growth in crude Oil demand.

Additionally, energy transition measures have significantly affected demand in China. On Thursday, state-owned energy giant Sinopec announced that the country’s gasoline demand is expected to peak by 2027, as diesel and gasoline consumption weakens in the world’s largest oil importer.

• WTI trades with mild gains near $69.50 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• A cautionary tone by the Fed and Chinese sluggish demand concerns undermine the WTI price. 
• US crude oil stocks fell less than expected last week, according to the EIA. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.50 on Thursday. The WTI price posts modest gains as US crude inventories fell and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday. However, the signal that the US central bank would slow the pace of reductions might cap the upside for the black gold. 

The Fed made its third consecutive cut of 2024, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting on Wednesday. The US central bank signalled it would slow the pace of the easing cycle as sticky inflation and US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies could prove inflationary. The Fed officials indicated that it probably would only lower twice more in 2025. This, in turn, lifts the Greenback and exerts some selling pressure on the USD-denominated commodity price as it makes oil more expensive in other countries, which can reduce demand.

Additionally, the concerns about the weakness in consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer, could weigh on the WTI price. “Bearish momentum spawned by the China data destroyed any hopes speculators had of breaking out of the two-month range to the upside,” noted Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. 

A decline in US crude inventories last week might provide some support to the WTI. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending December 13 declined by 934,000 barrels, compared to a fall of 1.7 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.425 million barrels. 

• WTI price declines to near $69.70 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
• Chinese economic data stoked concerns about demand, weighing on the WTI price. 
• US crude inventories fell by about 4.7M barrels last week, the API showed. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $69.70 on Wednesday. The WTI price edges lower amid the renewed concerns about Chinese demand. Investors remains cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. 

The disappointing Chinese Retail Sales raised concerns about the weakness in consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer. “Bearish momentum spawned by the China data destroyed any hopes speculators had of breaking out of the two-month range to the upside,” noted Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. 

Oil traders await the Fed's final policy meeting of the year on Wednesday. The market has already priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, but the attention will focus on the Fed’s forward guidance regarding rate policy for 2025 and 2026. Any signs of a less aggressive easing cycle by the Fed could boost the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated commodity price lower. 

A decline in US crude inventories last week might help limit the WTI’s losses. The US American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending December 13 fell by 4.7 million barrels, compared to a rise of 499,000 barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 1.85 million barrels. 
 

• WTI price trades on a flat note around $70.20 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• Weak Chinese spending data might weigh on the WTI price. 
• Geopolitical risks could cap its downside despite bearish market pressure.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.20 on Tuesday. The WTI price trades flat as traders await the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. However, the concerns over sluggish global demand growth in China might cap the upside for the black gold for the time being. 

Chinese November Retail Sales came in slower than expected, raising the fear of weakness in consumer spending in China. This, in turn, undermines the WTI price as China is the world's largest oil importer.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed on Monday that the nation’s Retail Sales rose 3.0% YoY in November versus 4.8% prior, below the market consensus of 4.6%. "It's just a very bearish scenario where there's not a lot hope of demand growth for crude oil," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.

Analysts believe the markets might turn cautious, and traders could take profits while awaiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The US Fed is anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at the December meeting. Traders will take more cues from the press conference and dot-plot after the monetary policy meeting. Any hawkish remarks from the Fed officials might lift the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated commodity price lower. 

On the other hand, the geopolitical risks amid additional sanctions on crude producers Russia and Iran might help limit the WTI’s losses. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized the possibility of targeting Chinese banks and “dark fleet” tankers to curb oil revenue funding Russia’s war in Ukraine. Furthermore, heightened sanctions on Iranian crude exports might boost the WTI price. 

• WTI may appreciate further due to rising expectations of supply threats amid US sanctions on major producers Russia and Iran.
• The US is considering further sanctions on "dark fleet" tankers and Chinese banks to curb Russia's Oil revenue.
• Crude Oil prices gained ground as the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price corrects downwards after registering gains in the previous session, trading around $70.50 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday. Crude Oil prices rose amid growing expectations of tighter supplies driven by the implementation of additional US sanctions on major producers Russia and Iran.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Friday that the United States is considering further sanctions on "dark fleet" tankers and may also impose sanctions on Chinese banks to curb Russia's Oil revenue and access to foreign supplies, which are fueling its war in Ukraine.

Additionally, optimism about China’s plans to ramp up economic stimulus could drive Oil demand. Chinese authorities, led by President Xi Jinping, have pledged to raise the fiscal deficit target next year, shifting policy focus to consumption to boost the economy amid looming 10% US tariffs threatening exports.

The price of crude Oil, often referred to as "liquid gold," also received a boost from improved market sentiment following recent interest rate cuts by central banks in Canada, Europe, and Switzerland. Traders are now focusing on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming policy decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated. Such a move could stimulate economic growth and potentially increase oil demand, as lower borrowing costs are likely to have a positive impact on economic activity.

• WTI oscillates in a narrow trading band and is influenced by a combination of diverging factors.
• Concerns about slowing fuel demand and increasing supply act as a headwind for the commodity.
• Geopolitical risks remain in play and hold back bears from placing bets around the black liquid.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to gain any meaningful traction during the Asian session on Friday and remain on the defensive below the monthly top, around the $70.30 area touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades around the $69.65 region, down 0.20% for the day, though it remains on track to register strong weekly gains amid mixed fundamental cues.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, last week decided to postpone planned supply increases by three months until April and extend the full unwinding of cuts by a year until the end of 2026. This, along with Saudi Arabia's move to cut oil prices for Asian buyers, highlights concern about a slowdown in demand, which, in turn, acts as a headwind for the black liquid. 

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, in its monthly report, expected non-OPEC+ nations to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, exceeding demand growth forecast of 1.1 million bpd. This turns out to be another factor capping Crude Oil prices. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid concerns about supply disruptions stemming from tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran.

Furthermore, hopes that Chinese stimulus measures could lift demand in the world's top oil importer and signs of US economic resilience offer some support to the commodity. The mixed fundamental backdrop, along with the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past two months or so, warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets around Crude Oil prices.