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11.11.2024 00:25Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts lower below $2,700 on firmer US Dollar
- Gold price loses ground to around $2,680 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The strength of the USD undermines the yellow metal.
- The uncertainty surrounding global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks might boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory near $2,680 during the early Asian session on Monday. The downtick of the precious metal is pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD) due to Donald Trump's victory.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the USD measured against a basket of six world currencies, extends its upside to around 105.00, the four-month high.
Trump's victory has fuelled questions about whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may proceed to cut rates at a slower and smaller pace. This, in turn, boosts the Greenback and weighs on the USD-denominated Gold price.
“This rally in the dollar and yields has put pressure on gold, which traditionally falls as real interest rates rise, reflecting reduced demand for safe-haven assets in the short term,” noted Matthew Jones, precious metals analyst at London-based metals trader Solomon Global. “However, from a longer-term, macro perspective, the future is ‘as good as gold,” added Jones.The upbeat US economic data on Friday contributes to the USD’s upside. The US Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0 in November from 70.5 in October, according to the preliminary reading by the University of Michigan. This figure came in better than the market expectation of 71.0.
On the other hand, the global economic uncertainty and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might help limit the yellow metal’s losses. Israeli army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi approved the expansion of the ground invasion of southern Lebanon, state broadcaster Kan reports.Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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03.11.2024 23:59Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD posts modest gains to near $2,750, eyes on US presidential election, Fed decision
- Gold price trades in positive territory around $2,740 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The US added just 12,000 jobs in October, the weakest since December 2020.
- Traders will closely monitor the US presidential election and Fed rate decision this week.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains, snapping the two-day losing streak near $2,740 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty around the US presidential election and Middle East tensions might boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the yellow metal.
The upside of the precious metal is bolstered by looming US election uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The spotlight for this week will be the US presidential election on Tuesday. JPMorgan analysts noted that regardless of the outcome of the US election, any pullback in gold prices would present a good buying opportunity.
The weaker US October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data boosts rate cut hopes as markets now expect a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at next Thursday’s meeting. The US NFP increased by 12,000 in October, the smallest gain since December 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed Friday. This figure followed the 223,000 rise (revised from 254,000) seen in September and below the market consensus of 113,000 by a wide margin. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1% in October, matching expectations.
On the other hand, the renewed Greenback demand and higher yields might weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price as higher yields made non-yielding assets like bullion less attractive in comparison.Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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28.10.2024 00:07Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,750, potential downside seems limited
- Gold price loses momentum to around $2,735 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Geopolitical risks and uncertainty around US presidential elections boost the yellow metal.
- Bets for a smaller Fed rate cut weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to near $2,735, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the downside of the precious metal might be limited amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Saturday’s attack on Iran severely damaged Tehran’s defenses. Meanwhile, Iranian officials vowed an “appropriate response” Sunday, while saying they do not seek a wider war, per CNN. The geopolitical risks and uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election could provide some support to traditional safe-haven assets like Gold.
The purchases of Gold reserves among central banks and increasing demand from investors have lifted the price of yellow metal. The World Gold Council suggested that the central banks worldwide purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold during each of the last two years, and China ranks atop the list of nations seeking to bolster their gold reserves.
On the other hand, a slower pace of rate reductions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) amid the stronger US economic data undermines the yellow metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in nearly 97.7% that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November.Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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21.10.2024 00:01Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hits another record high above $2,700
- Gold price gains momentum to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Uncertainty surrounding the US election and geopolitical risks prompted higher demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.
- The fear of a Chinese economic slowdown could weigh on the XAU/USD.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty surrounding tensions in the Middle East and the US presidential election boosts the safe haven flows.
The uptick in the precious metal is bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainties around the US elections and easing monetary policy expectations from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). "With the conflict intensifying – particularly following Hezbollah's announcement to escalate the war with Israel – investors are flocking to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset," noted Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. "Adding to the momentum, concerns around the U.S. presidential election and anticipation of looser monetary policies have further fuelled the rally," Zumpfe added.
Furthermore, the prospects of further Fed rate cuts continue to underpin the Gold price. The US central bank lowered its interest rates for the first time in more than four years in the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of an additional quarter-point rate cut in November stand at more than 90%. Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, lifting the Gold price.
On the other hand, China’s sluggish economy could undermine the precious metal. China's economy grew in the third quarter (Q3) at the slowest pace since early last year. The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that the GDP expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 versus 4.7% prior. This figure was below the government's "around 5%" target for this year. This, in turn, might weigh on the yellow metal as China is the world's largest gold consumer.Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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14.10.2024 00:08Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts lower to near $2,650, potential downside seems limited
- Gold price loses momentum to around $2,650 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Weaker Chinese economic data undermine the Gold price.
- The US PPI report and Middle East geopolitical risks could support the yellow metal.
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,650, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The downbeat Chinese economic data and firmer Greenback weigh on the precious metal. Nonetheless, the prospects of further interest rate cuts this year and safe-haven demand might cap its downside.
China's deflation pressure increased in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly eased in September, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell more than expected during the same period, highlighting the need for more stimulus measures. The persistent deflationary pressure in China is likely to exert some selling pressure on the yellow metal, as China is the world's largest Gold consumer.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in September, indicating a still-favorable inflation outlook and supporting the bets of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in November. "The PPI numbers leaned friendly for the precious metals market bulls and suggest the Fed remains on track for two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year," said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.
Additionally, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered the fear of wider war in the region, boosting the traditional safe-haven assets like the Gold price. On Sunday, at least four Israeli soldiers were killed and more than 60 people were injured by a drone attack in north-central Israel, per CNN. The number of injuries makes the attack one of the bloodiest on Israel since the war started last October. Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for the attack.Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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