Quotes and rates for precious metals Gold vs US Dollar (XAUUSD)

• Gold price rebounds to around $2,690 in Friday’s Asian session, adding 42% on the day. 
• Gold demand and geopolitical risks could support the Gold price. 
• The cautious stance of the Fed due to Trump tariff policies might put pressure on the USD-denominated Gold. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to around $2,690 during the Asian trading hours on Friday after retreating from a five-week high in the previous session. All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision next week.

Gold buying by central banks, including the People's Bank of China (PBoC) could provide some support on the yellow metal. The Chinese central bank resumed gold purchases in November after a six-month hiatus, increasing its reserves to 72.96 million fine troy ounces. This move comes as Beijing signals a shift to an “appropriately loose” monetary policy, with plans for a more proactive fiscal approach in 2024. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) “may even increase Gold demand during periods of local currency weakness to boost confidence in their currency.”  

Additionally, the escalating tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven demand flows, benefiting the precious metal. Reuters reported that an Israeli strike killed at least 30 Palestinians and wounded 50 others who were sheltering in a post office in the central Gaza Strip, bringing the death toll on Thursday in the enclave to 66.

On the other hand, the speculations that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies might prompt inflation might convince the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates. This, in turn, could act as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 96.4% chance that the Fed will reduce its rate by 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the December meeting.

• Gold price edges higher to $2,645 in Monday’s Asian session, up 0.52% on the day. 
• PBoC resumes gold purchases after a six-month pause in November. 
• Traders see an 87% chance of a 25bp rate cut by the Fed on December 18.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains around $2,645 during the early Asian session on Monday. The renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations support the yellow metal. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will be in the spotlight on Wednesday. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, resumed buying gold for its reserves in November after a six-month pause. This, in turn, might boost the precious metal price, as China is a major gold-consuming country. China’s gold holdings climbed to 72.96 million fine troy ounces at the end of November, up from 72.80 million troy ounces a month earlier. 

Persistent global uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine following another major attack by Russia continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. CNN reported on Sunday that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow and were granted political asylum, ending 50 years of a brutal dictatorship. The downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime could lead to a conflict involving regional countries and Turkey, the Iranian envoy to Syria said on Sunday.

Furthermore, the US November employment report on Friday suggested the labor market continues to ease gradually, leaving room for the Fed to cut interest rates in December, which lifts the Gold price as lower rates increase the appeal of holding non-yielding gold. According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are now pricing in nearly 85.1% odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed on December 17-18.

On the other hand, the potential higher tariff policies by the US-elected Donald Trump could stoke inflation and convince the US central bank to adopt a cautious approach to further rate cuts. This might undermine the Greenback and act as a headwind for USD-denominated commodity price. 

• Gold price trades sideways near $2,650 as investors await the US NFP data for fresh interest rate guidance.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in its policy meeting on December 18.
• Gold price wobbles near $2,650 from almost a week.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range around $2,650.00 in Thursday’s European session. The precious metal struggles for a direction as investors have sidelined ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be released on Friday.

The labor market data will significantly influence market expectations for the likely interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in its monetary policy meeting on December 18. Currently, financial market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Economists expect the US economy to have added 200K fresh workers, significantly higher than 12K in October. The NFP report stated that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes last month. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have increased to 4.2% from the former release of 4.1%. Investors will also pay close attention to the US Average Hourly Earnings data to get cues about the current status of wage growth.

The downside in the Gold price is expected to remain well-supported amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Historically, the appeal of the Gold price has strengthened amid heightening geopolitical tensions.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks down to near 106.20. 10-year US Treasury yields advance to near 4.21%.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price trades back and forth near the upward-sloping trendline around $2,650, which is plotted from the February low of $1,984.00 on a daily timeframe. The precious metal wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,650.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Looking down, the November low of $2,536.87 will be the key support for Gold price bulls. On the upside, the October high of $2,790 will act as key resistance.

Gold daily chart

• Gold price trades in negative territory near $2,645 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Trump trades and the Fed’s cautious stance undermine the yellow metal price. 
• The geopolitical risks might help limit Gold’s losses. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to around $2,645 during the early Asian session on Monday. A recovery in the US Dollar broadly weighs on the precious metal. However, persistent geopolitical tensions could cap the downside for XAU/USD. 

The yellow metal declined 3% in November, its worst monthly loss since September 2023. A victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential election in November fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would adopt a cautious approach to further rate cuts, which boost the Greenback and drag the USD-denominated Gold lower. 

Nonetheless, the escalating geopolitical tensions could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Russian and Syrian jets have carried out air strikes on Syrian rebels who are advancing through the country after seizing its second-largest city, per Reuters. "Persistent global uncertainties continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note.

Traders brace for the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Monday for fresh impetus. The Manufacturing PMI is projected to rise to 47.5 in November from 46.5 in the previous reading. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for November. 

• Silver price rebounds as the US Dollar, however, its outlook remains bearish.
• The appeal of safe-haven assets diminished on truce talks between Israel and Iran.
• The US Dollar fails to hold gains driven by US Trump’s threat to raise tariffs by 25% on Canada and Mexico.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds after discovering a temporary support near the psychological support of $30.00. The white metal gains an interim ground as the US Dollar (USD) retreats. However, its outlook has weakened as its safe-haven demand weakens on potential de-escalation in the war between Israel and Iran.

Israeli Ambassador Mike Herzog told on Israeli Army Radio that a ceasefire deal to end fighting between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah fighters could be reached “within days”, AlJazeera reported.

Potential truce talks have diminished safe-haven demand for precious metals, such as Silver. However, the overall safe-haven appeal has not been extinguished as the war between Russia and Ukraine remains intact.

Meanwhile, an upside-down move in the US Dollar (USD) has resulted in a slight recovery in the Silver price. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders gains after a strong opening and drops to near 107.00.

The US Dollar opened on a strong note after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to raise import tariffs by 25% on Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% above the already mentioned 60% on China.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the policy meeting held on November 7, which will be published at 19:00 GMT. In the policy meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75% and officials were confident that inflation remains on a sustainable track towards the bank’s target of 2%.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price resumes its declining trend after a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.40. The white metal is expected to retreat to the November 14 low of around $29.70. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The upward-sloping trendline from the February 29 low of $22.30 will act as key support for the Silver price around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart

• Gold price attracts some buyers to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• Heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine lift the Gold price. 
• The cautious stance from the Fed might cap the upside for Gold. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) jumps to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the USD-denominated Gold price. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven assets like yellow metal. 

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, days after reports said Washington DC, had allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. This, in turn, might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal price. 

"It's really one main geopolitical factor that's at play here in the gold market over the course of the last several days - the increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia is probably most notable," noted David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

On the other hand, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials remain cautious about rate reductions, which might cap the Gold’s upside. The market is adjusting its expectations for the Fed's cuts next year as inflation is becoming a bigger concern. Higher rates reduce the appeal of gold. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in 50.9% odds that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, down from around 69.5% a month ago. 

• The Gold price attracts some buyers to around $2,570 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Traders wind back expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, weighing on the yellow metal.
• Geopolitical risks could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to near $2,570, snapping the six-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the strength of the US Dollar (USD) might cap the upside for the precious metal. 

The Greenback rally in the wake of Donald Trump's election win could exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated Gold price. The expectations of higher inflation next year due to Donald Trump’s policies have led to fewer expected rate cuts. 

Furthermore, traders pared back expectations for lower rates in December after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the US central bank would be in no rush to cut, citing the “remarkably good” performance of the economy. Higher interest rates generally drag the Gold price lower, as it makes holding non-yielding assets like gold less appealing.

On the other hand, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal. President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia in a significant reversal of Washington's policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, per Reuters. 

• Gold price loses ground to around $2,680 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The strength of the USD undermines the yellow metal. 
• The uncertainty surrounding global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks might boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory near $2,680 during the early Asian session on Monday. The downtick of the precious metal is pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD) due to Donald Trump's victory. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the USD measured against a basket of six world currencies, extends its upside to around 105.00, the four-month high. 
 
Trump's victory has fuelled questions about whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may proceed to cut rates at a slower and smaller pace. This, in turn, boosts the Greenback and weighs on the USD-denominated Gold price. 

“This rally in the dollar and yields has put pressure on gold, which traditionally falls as real interest rates rise, reflecting reduced demand for safe-haven assets in the short term,” noted Matthew Jones, precious metals analyst at London-based metals trader Solomon Global. “However, from a longer-term, macro perspective, the future is ‘as good as gold,” added Jones. 

The upbeat US economic data on Friday contributes to the USD’s upside. The US Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 73.0 in November from 70.5 in October, according to the preliminary reading by the University of Michigan. This figure came in better than the market expectation of 71.0.

On the other hand, the global economic uncertainty and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might help limit the yellow metal’s losses. Israeli army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi approved the expansion of the ground invasion of southern Lebanon, state broadcaster Kan reports.  

• Gold price trades in positive territory around $2,740 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The US added just 12,000 jobs in October, the weakest since December 2020.
• Traders will closely monitor the US presidential election and Fed rate decision this week. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains, snapping the two-day losing streak near $2,740 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty around the US presidential election and Middle East tensions might boost the safe-haven demand, supporting the yellow metal. 

The upside of the precious metal is bolstered by looming US election uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The spotlight for this week will be the US presidential election on Tuesday. JPMorgan analysts noted that regardless of the outcome of the US election, any pullback in gold prices would present a good buying opportunity.

The weaker US October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data boosts rate cut hopes as markets now expect a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at next Thursday’s meeting. The US NFP increased by 12,000 in October, the smallest gain since December 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed Friday. This figure followed the 223,000 rise (revised from 254,000) seen in September and below the market consensus of 113,000 by a wide margin. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1% in October, matching expectations. 

On the other hand, the renewed Greenback demand and higher yields might weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price as higher yields made non-yielding assets like bullion less attractive in comparison.

• Gold price loses momentum to around $2,735 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Geopolitical risks and uncertainty around US presidential elections boost the yellow metal. 
• Bets for a smaller Fed rate cut weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to near $2,735, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the downside of the precious metal might be limited amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Saturday’s attack on Iran severely damaged Tehran’s defenses. Meanwhile, Iranian officials vowed an “appropriate response” Sunday, while saying they do not seek a wider war, per CNN. The geopolitical risks and uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election could provide some support to traditional safe-haven assets like Gold. 

The purchases of Gold reserves among central banks and increasing demand from investors have lifted the price of yellow metal. The World Gold Council suggested that the central banks worldwide purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold during each of the last two years, and China ranks atop the list of nations seeking to bolster their gold reserves. 

On the other hand, a slower pace of rate reductions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) amid the stronger US economic data undermines the yellow metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in nearly 97.7% that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November. 

• Gold price gains momentum to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Uncertainty surrounding the US election and geopolitical risks prompted higher demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. 
• The fear of a Chinese economic slowdown could weigh on the XAU/USD. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty surrounding tensions in the Middle East and the US presidential election boosts the safe haven flows. 

The uptick in the precious metal is bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainties around the US elections and easing monetary policy expectations from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). "With the conflict intensifying – particularly following Hezbollah's announcement to escalate the war with Israel – investors are flocking to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset," noted Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. "Adding to the momentum, concerns around the U.S. presidential election and anticipation of looser monetary policies have further fuelled the rally," Zumpfe added.

Furthermore, the prospects of further Fed rate cuts continue to underpin the Gold price. The US central bank lowered its interest rates for the first time in more than four years in the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of an additional quarter-point rate cut in November stand at more than 90%. Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, lifting the Gold price. 

On the other hand, China’s sluggish economy could undermine the precious metal. China's economy grew in the third quarter (Q3) at the slowest pace since early last year. The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that the GDP expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 versus 4.7% prior. This figure was below the government's "around 5%" target for this year. This, in turn, might weigh on the yellow metal as China is the world's largest gold consumer.

• Gold price loses momentum to around $2,650 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Weaker Chinese economic data undermine the Gold price. 
• The US PPI report and Middle East geopolitical risks could support the yellow metal. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,650, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The downbeat Chinese economic data and firmer Greenback weigh on the precious metal. Nonetheless, the prospects of further interest rate cuts this year and safe-haven demand might cap its downside. 

China's deflation pressure increased in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly eased in September, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell more than expected during the same period, highlighting the need for more stimulus measures. The persistent deflationary pressure in China is likely to exert some selling pressure on the yellow metal, as China is the world's largest Gold consumer. 

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in September, indicating a still-favorable inflation outlook and supporting the bets of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in November. "The PPI numbers leaned friendly for the precious metals market bulls and suggest the Fed remains on track for two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year," said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.

Additionally, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered the fear of wider war in the region, boosting the traditional safe-haven assets like the Gold price. On Sunday, at least four Israeli soldiers were killed and more than 60 people were injured by a drone attack in north-central Israel, per CNN. The number of injuries makes the attack one of the bloodiest on Israel since the war started last October. Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for the attack.

• Gold price attracts some sellers to $2,650 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 254,000 in September vs. 159,000 prior, as expected. 
• Rising Middle East geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day near $2,650 on Monday during the early Asian session. The further upside in the US Dollar (USD) after the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday exerts some selling pressure on the yellow metal. 

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States climbed by 254,000 in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The figure topped was above August's revised 159,000 and above the market consensus of 140,000. The Unemployment Rate ticks lower to  4.1% in September, down from 2.4% in August. These encouraging US reports dampen the hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the deeper interest rate, which lifts the Greenback and weighs on the USD-denominated Gold price. 

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that he thinks the recent employment data was "superb" and noted that additional reports like this would increase his confidence that the US economy has reached full employment with low inflation. 

On the other hand, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the price of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip on Sunday ahead of the one-year anniversary of the October 7 attacks that launched the conflict. Israel's defense minister proclaimed all possibilities for reprisal against Iran.

• Gold price drifts higher to $2,665 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Fed rate cuts support the Gold price. 
• Investors await the Chinese PMI, which is due on Monday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers to near $2,665 during the early Asian session on Monday. The geopolitical risks and firmer expectation of another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November lift the precious metal. 

Israel continues to launch airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing more than 100 people and wounding over 350 others Sunday, per CNN. Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has fuelled tensions in the Middle East and escalated the conflict along the border with Lebanon, which might boost the safe-have flows, benefiting the Gold price. 

Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Friday showed the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.2% year-over-year in August, compared to 2.5% in July, softer than the expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the core PCE jumped 2.7% over the same period, matching market estimations. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.1%, aligning with analysts' predictions.

The PCE data provided the latest sign that price pressures are easing in the US and triggered the expectation that the Fed will further cut the interest rate this year. A rate cut by the US Fed is likely to boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing Gold price. 

Gold traders will monitor the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for fresh impetus. The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.5 in September from 49.1, while the Services PMI is estimated to rise to 50.4 in September from 50.3 in the previous reading. The weaker-than-expected data might weigh on the yellow metal as China's largest gold importer. 

• Gold price posts modest losses around $2,620 in Monday's early Asian session. 
• US Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks boost the precious metal.
• The positive view for US growth and stronger US economic data could weigh on the XAU/USD price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $2,620 but remains near the all-time high on Monday during the early Asian session. An aggressive interest cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East lift the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) slashed its interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points (bps) last week following a two-day meeting and signaled that more cuts are likely before the end of 2024. A rate cut by the US Fed is likely to boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing Gold price.  

Additionally, fears of an escalation of tensions in the Middle East after Hezbollah vows retaliation for a pager attack provide some support to the yellow metal price. Hezbollah and Israel exchanged heavy fire on Sunday, as the Lebanese militant group launched missiles deep into northern Israeli territory after facing some of the most intense bombardment in almost a year of conflict, per CNN. 

The upside of the precious metal might be capped by the Fed’s broadly positive outlook for US growth. The Fed forecasts that the US economy will expand about 2.0% per year until the end of 2027, suggesting a soft landing profile for the economy. This, in turn, might drag the safe-haven Gold lower. 

Looking ahead, Gold traders will closely monitor the development surrounding the Middle East geopolitical risks. Furthermore, the flash reading of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released later on Monday. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated Gold price.