Quotes and rates for precious metals Silver vs US Dollar (XAGUSD)

• Silver prices advance as dollar-denominated metals become more affordable, supported by a weaker US Dollar.
• The grey metal finds support from safe-haven inflows as tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalate.
• Non-interest-bearing assets encountered headwinds after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened expectations of imminent rate cuts.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to gain ground for the second consecutive day, trading around $31.40 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The prices of the dollar-denominated Silver recover from two-month lows as the US Dollar (USD) experiences profit-taking selling after a recent rally. This rally was fueled by expectations of fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and optimism about US economic outperformance under the incoming Trump administration.

Meanwhile, safe-haven Silver is gaining traction amid rising geopolitical tensions. US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use US-made weapons for strikes deep within Russia, a move that escalated concerns in the region. In response, the Kremlin issued a warning on Monday, vowing to retaliate against what it called a reckless decision by the Biden administration. Russia had earlier cautioned that such actions could significantly increase the risk of confrontation with NATO.

Non-yielding assets like Silver faced headwinds after Fed Chair Jerome Powell tempered expectations of immediate rate cuts. Powell emphasized the economy's strength, a robust labor market, and ongoing inflationary pressures. He stated, "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." Investors now await additional remarks from Fed officials this week for further insight into the trajectory of US interest rates.

Markets are closely monitoring China's upcoming Loan Prime Rate (LPR) decision, anticipating potential additional stimulus measures to support economic growth. This follows the recent 10 trillion Yuan debt package, which did not include direct economic stimulus, heightening market concerns. As one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs for electronics, solar panels, and automotive components, China's industrial demand for Silver remains a key factor influencing its prices.

• Technical outlook shows silver below the 50-day SMA at $31.54, with potential resistance at $32.00 and $32.95.
• Current market dynamics could push silver towards $33.00 if upward momentum continues.
• Bearish control remains if price drops below $30.13, key supports at $30.00 and September 6 low of $27.69.

Silver prices soar late in the New York session, trading with gains of over 3% at around $31.16 after bouncing off daily lows of $30.24. A weak US Dollar and falling US Treasury yields augmented appetite for precious metals, which halted their slide after the US Presidential Election.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver’s uptrend remains intact despite trading below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.54.  Although it has printed a lower low beneath the October 8 swing low of $30.13, sellers need the grey’s metal price to stay below the 50-day SMA. If that’s not achieved, the next resistance would be $32.00, followed by the October 4 peak at $32.95. On further strength, $33.00 would be up next.

On the other hand, XAG/USD is slumping below $30.13, and sellers are in charge. The next support would be $30.00, followed by the Intermediate support seen at $27.69, the September 6 low.

Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain bearishly biased, though in the short term, some upside is seen.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver kicks off the new week on a positive note, though the upside potential seems limited.
• The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels. 
• A sustained strength beyond the $31.00 mark is needed to negate the negative outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) regains positive traction at the start of a new week and climbs to the $30.70-$30.75 area during the Asian session, albeit it remains confined in a multi-day-old range around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The XAG/USD last week rebounded from the $29.70-$29.65 support zone, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-October rally. Moreover, the emergence of fresh buying on Monday favors bullish traders. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. Hence, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the $31.00 round-figure mark. 

Some follow-through buying, however, will suggest that the recent corrective fall from the vicinity of the $35.00 psychological mark, or a 12-year peak touched in October, has run its course and pave the way for additional gains. The XAG/USD might then climb to the next relevant hurdle near the $31.70 area (38.2% Fibo. level) before aiming to reclaim the $32.00 round figure. 

On the flip side, the $30.20 region, followed by the $30.00 psychological mark could act as immediate support ahead of the $29.70-$29.65 area, or a two-month low touched on Friday. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the XAG/USD below the $29.00 mark, towards the very important 200-day SMA support near the $28.80-$28.75 zone en route to the $28.40-$28.35 region, or the 78.6% Fibo. level.

Silver daily chart

• Silver struggles to maintain momentum, hovering near the 100-day SMA at $30.34 with a downward bias.
• Potential further decline could see silver test key supports at $30.00 and the 200-day SMA at $28.63.
• A rebound above $31.00 could challenge higher resistances, targeting the 50-day SMA at $31.51 and beyond.

Silver's price fell over 0.70% beneath $30.30 after robust US Retail Sales data suggested the Federal Reserve could gradually ease policy. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.21 after hitting a daily peak of $30.81.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price remains subdued at around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.34. Nevertheless, the mid-term bias is tilted to the downside, and once bears push prices below August’s 26 high turned support at $30.18, they will test the psychological $30.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at $28.63, followed by the September 6 swing low of $27.69.

If Silver moves back above $31.00, this could pave the way for challenging the 50-day SMA at $31.51. Once surpassed, XAG/USD's next resistance would be $32.00.

Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hint that further XAG/USD’s downside is seen, as RSI remains shy of being oversold.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver price remains under pressure near $30.35 in Friday’s early European session. 
• Trump trades are likely to support the Greenback and undermine the USD-denominated Silver price. 
• Global silver demand in 2024 could help limit the XAG/USD’s losses. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in negative territory around $30.35 on Friday during the early European session. The white metal remains vulnerable amid the stronger US Dollar (USD). Traders await the release of the US October Retail Sales report on Friday for fresh impetus. The Fedspeak will be closely monitored as it might offer some hints about the US interest rate outlook. 

Donald Trump's victory in last week's US presidential election sparked expectations of potentially inflationary tariffs and other measures by his incoming administration, boosting the Greenback. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, currently trades near 106.80 after hitting a fresh year-to-date high near 107.05 in the previous session. The 10-year US Treasury bond hit the highest since start of July at 4.48%. The renewed USD demand could undermine the USD-denominated Silver as it makes the white metal more expensive in other currencies, dampening demand. 

China's National People's Congress (NPC) meeting last week failed to deliver the immediate fiscal stimulus that investors were expecting. The concerns about sluggish demand could weigh on the Silver price as China is the world's major importer of silver. 

On the other hand, record-high industrial demand for silver might support the white metal in the near term. According to the Silver Institute and consultancy Metals Focus, demand for silver across industrial applications is expected to increase 7% YoY in 2024, reaching 700 million ounces (Moz). Additionally, analysts expect the global silver market to show a physical deficit of around 182 million ounces in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of shortfall.

• Silver price gauges an interim cushion near $29.70, more downside looks likely.
• The US Dollar’s rally stalls after the release of the US jobless claims and the PPI data.
• A firm outlook on Trump’s policies will keep the Silver price edgy.

Silver price (XAG/USD) discovers a temporary support near $29.70 in Thursday’s North American session. The white metal finds cushion as the US Dollar (USD) gives up some intraday gains after posting a fresh annual high. The rally in the US Dollar index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, pauses for a while after jumping to near 107.00.

The Greenback faces mild pressure after the release of the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 8 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for October even though the data was USD-positive. Individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time came in surprisingly lower at 217K than the prior release of 221K, which was expected at 223K.

The headline producer inflation data accelerated to 2.4%, faster than estimates of 2.3% and the September reading of 1.9%. In the same period, the core PPI – which strips off volatile food and energy prices rose by 3.1% than estimates of 3% and the former release of 2.9%. Historically, signs of acceleration in price pressures weigh on market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, however, the impact is expected to negligible as officials are more worried about stabilizing job market.

For more interest rate cues, investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which is scheduled at 20:00 GMT.

Meanwhile, the outlook of the Silver price is expected to remain vulnerable as policies of President-elected Donald Trump could limit the Fed’s potential of cutting interest rates aggressively.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) starts declining, which trades around $32.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price depreciates as risk-sensitive assets advance due to improving risk-on sentiment.
• The dollar-denominated Silver faces challenges as the US Dollar surges to its highest level since November 2023.
• Higher yields exert downward pressure on non-yielding assets like Silver.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses to two-month lows, trading around $29.90 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. This downside of the safe-haven Silver is attributed to improving risk sentiment since Donald Trump’s election victory last week.

The US Dollar (USD), equities, and cryptocurrencies are advancing as markets anticipate strong growth and higher inflation under the incoming Trump administration. The proposed policies could drive increased investment, spending, and labor demand, raising inflation risks.

The dollar-denominated Silver faces challenges due to solid US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, holds steady around 106.60, its highest level since November 2023.

The US Dollar also gains support from rising US Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year yields standing at 4.29% and 4.46%, respectively, at the time of writing. Additionally, these higher yields are exerting downward pressure on non-yielding assets like Silver.

The non-interest-bearing assets like Silver might have received downward pressure from less dovish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Wednesday. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem remarked that ongoing inflationary pressures make it challenging for the Fed to maintain a course of rate cuts. Musalem shifted focus to the robustness of the US labor market, aiming to ease concerns about inflation's resistance to the Fed's efforts to reduce it.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid highlighted potential challenges in the journey toward lowering interest rates. Schmid also criticized market participants who continue to hold out hope for a return to near-zero rates, calling their expectations unrealistic.

• Silver remains under some selling pressure on Thursday and retests October's swing low. 
• The technical setup favors bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.
• Any attempted recovery could still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Thursday and drops to its lowest level since September 19 in the last hour. Bearish traders now await a sustained break below the $30.00 psychological mark before positioning for an extension of the recent sharp retracement slide from a 12-year peak touched last month.

The overnight close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-October rally and a subsequent break through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since September could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD remains to the downside and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. 

The white metal might then accelerate the fall towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $29.65-$29.60 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $29.20-$29.15 area before the XAG/USD eventually breaks below the $29.00 mark and tests a technically significant 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the $28.65 zone.

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront a stiff barrier near the $30.60 region (50% Fibo. level). Some follow-through strength, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $31.00 mark, though the momentum is more likely to remain capped near the $31.20 support-turned-resistance. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will suggest that the commodity has formed a near-term bottom and pave the way for additional gains.

Silver daily chart

• Silver struggles near 100-day SMA, with downside potential towards $30.00 and lower supports.
• Technical outlook suggests further weakness, with a key support at $30.18 and the 200-day SMA at $28.63 in focus.
• Recovery above $31.00 could challenge resistance at the 50-day SMA and extend towards $32.00.

Silver price drops below $30.50 for the second consecutive session, prints losses of over 0.90% following a tempered US inflation report. The US CPI came as expected, though he hinted that disinflation has stalled. The XAG/USD trades at $30.40, set to end the session lower.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price consolidated during the last two days at around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.31. However, the mid-term bias is tilted to the downside, and once bears push prices below August’s 26 high turned support at $30.18, they will test the psychological $30.00 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at $28.63, followed by the September 6 swing low of $27.69.

If Silver moves back above $31.00, this could pave the way for challenging the 50-day SMA at $31.51. Once surpassed, XAG/USD's next resistance would be $32.00.

Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hint that further XAG/USD’s downside is seen, as RSI remains shy of being oversold.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver price bounces back to near $31.00 after the US inflation report, which showed that price pressures remain sticky.
• Annual headline and core CPI rose by 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively, as expected.
• The optimism on Trump trades will keep the Silver price edgy.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds recovery to near $31.00 in Wednesday’s North American session after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that price pressures remain sticky as the annual headline inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% in September.

The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose in line with estimates and the former release of 3.3%. On month, the headline and core inflation grew expectedly by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Sticky price pressures are less likely to impact market speculation for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts in December as officials are more worried about preventing job losses, with high confidence over inflation remaining on track toward the bank’s target of 2%.

After the US inflation data release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops slightly but clung to gains near 106.00. 10-year US Treasury yields slide to near 4.38%.

The overall outlook of the Silver price remains weak on so-called “Trump trades” as demand for those assets that are expected to perform better in US President-elected Donald Trump’s administration is upbeat.

Therefore, the Silver price could face selling pressure as Trump’s policies, such as higher import tariffs by 10% and lower corporate taxes, would boost US economic growth and price pressures, a scenario that will be favorable for US bond yields as the Federal Reserve (Fed) would be needed to keep interest rates restrictive. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price remains on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from May 21 high of $32.50.

The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) starts declining, which trades around $32.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price gains ground due to trade repositions ahead of the US inflation data release on Wednesday.
• The US Consumer Price Index may report an increase of 2.6% YoY in October, with core CPI rising by 3.3%.
• Silver prices may struggle as the implementation of Trump’s proposed policies could delay further rate cuts by the Fed.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) extends gains for the second consecutive day, trading around $30.90 per troy ounce during the European session on Wednesday. Silver prices gain momentum as traders seem to adjust their positions ahead of a crucial US inflation report, which could shape expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Softer-than-expected US CPI data could strengthen expectations for steady rate reductions by the Fed, likely increasing demand for non-interest-bearing precious metals like silver. However, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to show a 2.6% year-over-year increase for October, compared to the previous 2.4% reading. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to rise by 3.3%.

However, the price of the dollar-denominated Silver remains under pressure from a strengthening US Dollar (USD), fueled by expectations of fiscal expansion and inflationary policies under the potential Trump administration. A stronger USD makes Silver more expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies, which negatively impacts the commodity's demand.

The implementation of Trump’s proposed policies could lead to increased investment, spending, and labor demand, heightening inflation risks. This scenario may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy stance.

Weak economic data from China, combined with the absence of direct economic stimulus, has heightened concerns about demand in the world’s largest manufacturing hub. Silver is also under pressure due to its significant use in electrification, especially in solar panels.

Meanwhile, Chinese-owned solar panel manufacturers are reducing production, partly due to fears that a potential victory by Trump in the upcoming US election could result in higher tariffs on the industry. Morgan Stanley has forecast that the Trump administration might impose immediate tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese imports.

• Silver moves further away from over a one-month trough touched on Tuesday.
• The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for further gains.
• Any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.

Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's bounce from the $30.20-$30.15 area, or its lowest level since October 8 and gains some follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday. The momentum lifts the white metal back closer to the $31.00 mark in the last hour, though the technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further gains.

Given that the XAG/USD showed resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Tuesday, the recovery could be attributed to short-covering amid some repositioning ahead of the US inflation figures. That said, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

The momentum, however, could extend further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $31.60-$31.65 region, though is more likely to remain capped near the $32.00 round figure. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will indicate that the recent corrective slide from the vicinity of the $35.00 psychological mark, or a 12-year high touched in October has run its course. This would shift the bias in favor of bulls and pave the way for additional gains.

On the flip side, the $30.60 area, or the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-October rally, now seems to protect the immediate downside. This is followed by over a one-month low, around the $30.20-$30.15 region touched on Tuesday and the $30.00 psychological mark. Acceptance below the latter will confirm a near-term breakdown below the 100-day SMA and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the 61.8% Fibo. level, near the $29.65-$29.60 region. 

The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $29.00 mark before the XAG/USD eventually drops to the next relevant support near the $28.75 region en route to the mid-$28.00s.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price weakens as Trump’s victory is expected to boost US growth and consumer spending.
• The US Dollar rallies on expectations that the Fed could follow a slower policy-easing approach.
• Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls further to near $30.20 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal weakens as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens on expectations that President-elected Donald Trump’s policies will boost the United States (US) economic growth and inflationary pressures.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, inches close to the key resistance of 106.00. The higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an expensive bet for investors. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.37%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Trump vowed to raise import tariffs by 10% and lower corporate taxes in his election campaign, a move that will increase demand for domestic goods, boost labor demand and business investment, which will eventually prompt inflationary pressures and allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to follow a more gradual rate-cut cycle.

In the December meeting, there is a 65% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be released on Wednesday for fresh interest rate guidance. Also, a slew of Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are set to speak this week.

Apart from the US Dollar’s strength, an absence of direct stimulus in the Chinese economic package to revive the economy has also weighed on the Silver price. Silver, as a metal, has applications in various industries associated with renewable energy and mining. A scenario of bleak growth in China weighs on the Silver price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price declines toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after breaking below the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) starts declining, which trades around $30.26.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Silver prices face challenges due to a reduced demand for safe-haven assets following Trump’s election victory.
• The demand for riskier assets improves as markets assess the potential impacts of the proposed Trump policies.
• The dollar-denominated Silver struggles due to a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) experiences a third consecutive day of declines, trading around $30.60 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metals sector, including Silver, is facing pressure due to a reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Traders are increasingly shifting toward riskier assets as markets assess the potential impacts of US President-Elect Trump’s potential fiscal policies and monetary strategies. The possibility of tariffs being implemented early in Trump’s presidency could lead to inflation, which in turn may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay its expected easing measures in the coming year.

As a result, the dollar-denominated Silver is also struggling amid a stronger Greenback and rising US Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is hovering near a four-month high at 105.70. Meanwhile, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are at 4.28% and 4.32%, respectively, at the time of writing.

China’s recent stimulus measures have fallen short of investor expectations, undermining earlier hopes for industrial support in the largest manufacturing hub and negatively impacting the outlook for industrial metals across the board. This has put additional pressure on Silver, which has significant usage in electrification, particularly in solar panels.

Last week, China announced a 10 trillion Yuan debt package aimed at easing local government financing pressures and boosting the economy. However, the package did not include direct economic stimulus measures, which many had hoped for.

Meanwhile, Chinese-owned solar panel manufacturers have begun scaling back production, partly due to concerns that Trump’s election victory in the US could lead to higher tariffs on the sector. Morgan Stanley has predicted that the Trump administration may impose immediate tariffs of 60% on imports from China.

• Silver prices break below 50-day SMA at $31.41, testing support at 100-day SMA at $30.28.
• Bearish momentum confirmed by RSI; further decline could target 200-day SMA at $28.55.
• Reclaiming $31.00 could see silver challenge resistance at 50-day SMA and November highs.

Silver price drops over 1.80% on Monday trading late in the New York session, trading below the $31.00 a troy ounce, amid worries about Trump’s second term could escalate a trade war. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.69, after hitting a daily high of $31.55.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The uptrend in Silver prices is intact, yet after falling below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.41, sponsored XAG’s leg down to test the 100-day SMA at $30.28. Indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, and drops further, an indication that if sellers clear the latest key support area between $30.00-$30.28, they would be in charge.

In that outcome, the next support would be the 200-day SMA at $28.55, followed by the September 6 low of $27.69

Conversely, if buyers reclaim $31.00, look for a test of the 50-day SMA. Once cleared, the next supply zone would be the November 7 high at $32.15.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver price slumps below $31.00, weighed down by US Dollar’s rally.
• Trump’s victory has improved the US Dollar’s long-term outlook.
• Silver price sees more downside towards $29.00.

Silver price (XAG/USD) slides below the key support of $31.00 in Monday’s North American session. The white metal weakens as the US Dollar (USD) rallies on optimism over Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the United States (US) presidential elections.

Trump vowed to raise import tariffs by 10% universally and lower corporate taxes in his election campaign, a scenario that would boost fiscal deficit and inflationary pressures. This would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to turn hawkish on interest rates. The impact will be favorable for the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields. Usually, higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surges above 105.60. 10-year US Treasury yields soar to 4.37%. This week, investors will be focused on speeches from a slew of Fed officials for fresh interest rate guidance. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) again to 4.25%-4.50% in the December meeting.

Meanwhile, an absence of China’s stimulus package allocation has also weighed on the Silver. Silver, as a metal, has applications in various industries such as power, Electric Vehicles, and mining, etc, and a smaller-than-expected stimulus boost has weakened Silver’s appeal.

On Friday, the National People's Congress (NPC) unveiled a 10 trillion yuan debt package to stabilize economic growth.

"It may be disappointing for those who were expecting the NPC meeting to approve a massive fiscal package, but the expectation is unrealistic because the policy goal is to achieve the GDP growth target and reduce tail risks, not to reflate the economy in any meaningful way," analysts at Macquarie said.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price declines toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February 28 low of $22.30. The white metal weakened after breaking below the horizontal support plotted from May 21 high of $32.50.

The near-term trend of the Silver price has weakened as it establishes below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $31.60.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) drops below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Silver remains depressed below the 50-day SMA for the second straight day on Monday.
• The technical setup favors bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.
• Weakness below the $31.00 mark should pave the way for a slide to the 100-day SMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Monday, albeit it lacks follow-through selling and manages to hold above the $31.00 mark through the Asian session. The white metal, meanwhile, remains close to over a three-week low touched last Wednesday and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent corrective decline from a 12-year peak. 

From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) validates the bearish outlook. Adding to this, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the downside. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $31.00 mark before positioning for a slide towards testing the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the $30.35 region.

This is followed by the $30.00 psychological mark, below which the XAG/USD could accelerate the fall toward the next relevant support near the $29.50-$29.45 area.  The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $29.00 mark en route to the very important 200-day SMA, currently around the $28.70-$28.65 region. 

On the flip side, the $32.00 round figure now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong hurdle, above which the XAG/USD could climb to the $32.35-$32.40 supply zone. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move and lift the white metal to the $33.00 mark. The positive momentum could extend further towards the next relevant barrier near the mid-$33.00s.

Silver daily chart

• Silver trades below 50-day SMA at $31.37; $30.84 support is key for preventing deeper pullback.
• Bearish momentum persists with RSI in seller’s territory, favoring near-term downside.
• A close above $31.50 needed for bullish recovery, targeting $31.75 and potentially $32.00.

Silver retreated from two-day highs of $32.00 and tumbled below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.37 late in the North American session. This was weighed down by a strong US Dollar underpinned by former President Donald Trump’s victory. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.29, down 2.29%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver's price uptrend remains in play despite posting solid losses. The fall of US Treasury yields kept the grey metal from falling further, but a decisive break below the November 6 low of $30.84 could exacerbate a deeper pullback. In that outcome, the next support would be the 100-day SMA at $30.27, followed by the September 5 high turned support at $29.17.

For a bullish resumption, the XAG/USD must close above the $31.50 area. This could pave the way to challenge the July 11 high at $31.75. A breach of the latter will expose $32.00, followed by May’s 20 peak at $32.51.

Momentum is bearish in the near term, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), breaching its neutral line into the seller's area.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver price retreats from $32.30 as investors expect Trump’s protectionist policies could force the Fed to turn hawkish on interest rates.
• Fed Powell doesn’t see any near-term impact of Trump’s policies on the interest rate path.
• China’s economic package failed to impress market participants.

Silver price (XAG/USD) resumes its downside move after its recovery move met resistance near $32.20 in the North American session on Friday. The white metal falls back as traders assess the implications of Donald Trump’s victory in the United States (US) presidential elections on domestic and the global economy.

Donald Trump promised to raise tariffs by 10% universally, expecting China that could face duties rising as much as 60%. Higher tariffs on offering coming from the external economy would boost in house production and prompt labor demand, which will prompt inflationary pressures. This will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to opt for a hawkish interest rate stance.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t see any immediate impact of Trump’s victory on the monetary policy action in the upcoming meetings after the bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75% on Thursday.

Meanwhile, some recovery in the US Dollar after Thursday’s correction has also weighed on the Silver price. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to nearly 106.40.

Apart from expectations for the Fed turning hawkish, an absence of meaningful economic stimulus by China has also weighed on the Silver price. In Friday’s late Asian session, China announced a massive 10 trillion yuan program to refinance local government debt with approval by the National People’s Congress. Market experts see the stimulus package as a measure against Trump’s potential tariffs, however, they consider it as insufficient to fix the likely impact on their economic growth.

Economists at Standard Chartered Plc expect “China’s growth would suffer a hit of as much as two percentage points should Trump follow through on his campaign vow to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%.”

Silver as a metal has applications in various industries such as solar energy, mining, and power and signs of weak China growth prospects impact the Silver price.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price slides to near $31.00 after breaking below the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50. The near-term trend of the Silver price has turned bearish as it has dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $31.60.

The asset could find support near the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February 28 low of $22.30.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dives to near 40.00. Should RSI (14) falls below 40.00, a bearish momentum will be triggered.

Silver daily chart