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CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Turkish Lira (USDTRY)
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Related news
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08.03.2024 11:16USD/TRY: The pace of Lira depreciation will slow in the year ahead – MUFG
The Turkish Lira (TRY) has continued to weaken at the start of this year at a similar pace to the end of last year by an annualized rate of around -28% against the US Dollar (USD) between January and February. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze Lira’s outlook.
Upcoming local election results unlikely to alter Erdogan’s tolerance for higher rates
The pace of Lira depreciation will slow in the year ahead based on the assumption that the CBRT sticks to tighter policy.
Economic growth has started to slow in response to higher rates. We are not expecting the upcoming local election results in March to alter President Erdogan’s tolerance for higher rates.
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19.02.2024 11:43USD/TRY to top out around 32.00 in 1H and drop towards 30.00 later this year – SocGen
The change in calendar year has brought no respite for the Turkish Lira (TRY). Economists at Société Générale analyze TRY outlook.
Lira’s fortunes likely to turn in 2Q24 after the local elections
We believe the Lira’s fortunes are likely to turn in 2Q24 after the local elections (due 31 March) based on improvement in Turkey’s current account due to seasonality and expectations of broad Dollar weakness.
Additionally, we expect local markets to attract a new wave of inflows starting 2Q24, resulting in the Lira recovering during the summer and a substantial total return given the high policy rate of 45%.
Our house call is for USD/TRY to top out around 32.00 in 1H and drop towards 30.00 later this year.
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16.02.2024 15:10USD/TRY: “Symbolic” forecast of 35.00 for end-2024 – Commerzbank
The Turkish Lira (TRY) has continued to weaken even after the central bank has hiked rates massively since June 2023. Economists at Commerzbank analyze TRY outlook.
The recent change of central bank governor does not foster market confidence or continuity
Recently, the head of the central bank resigned and was once again replaced by deputy Fatih Karahan. The new chief has experience working at the US Fed, and like his predecessors, promises to maintain tight monetary policy until inflation has declined fully towards the 5% target. The change In the end, however, only one thing will rule: President Tayyip Erdogan’s will.
Markets are aware that the CBT governor’s promise counts for little until and unless Erdogan actually supports the policy.
We retain our ‘symbolic forecast’ of 35.00 for USD/TRY by the end of 2024. Symbolic because the fair value is unknown (even to CBT, in our view) and many abrupt qualitative changes can occur before then.
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05.02.2024 13:35USD/TRY reaches a new all-time high and targets 31.0000
- The lira depreciates further north of 30.0000.
- Inflation rose more than estimated in January.
- H. G. Erkan resigned as CBRT Governor on Friday.
Further selling pressure keeps hurting the lira and propels USD/TRY to a new record high near 30.6000 at the beginning of the week.
USD/TRY: Never-ending uptrend?
Unsurprisingly, the Turkish currency depreciated further on Monday and bolstered the still unabated upward bias in USD/TRY, this time further north of the 30.0000 mark, and it should be a matter of some extra sessions before the pair hits the 31.0000 round level.
Monday’s extra upside in spot came in response to the small upside surprise in inflation figures in January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising at an annualized 64.86% and 70.5% when it comes to the Core reading. In addition, Producer Prices gained 44.20% over the last twelve months.
Contributing to the (endless?) sour sentiment around the lira, H. G. Erkan stepped down as CBRT Governor on Friday, paving the way for Deputy Governor F. Karahan to be the new face in the realm of the central bank.
Of note is that USD/TRY posted monthly losses in just two months since 2022 (November 2022 and August 2023), while the Lira lost more than 140% in that same period vs. the US Dollar.
USD/TRY levels to watch
So far, USD/TRY advances 0.26% at 30.5523 and faces the next up-barrier at the 31.0000 round level. On the downside, provisional support comes at the 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 29.4791 and 28.7549, respectively, all prior to the more significant 200-day SMA at 26.5923.
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25.01.2024 09:28USD/TRY: Risk of a short-term pullback only on a break below 29.85 – SocGen
USD/TRY has established above the 30.00 level. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s technical outlook.
Beyond 30.72, next objective is located at 31.65
USD/TRY has experienced a relentless uptrend after cross above last August high. It has tested the upper limit of a multi-month channel near 30.60/30.72. The move is overstretched but reversal signals are not yet visible. Lower band of the channel at 29.85 is near-term support.
Only if the pair breaks 29.85 would there be risk of a short-term pullback.
Beyond 30.72, next objective is located at projection of 31.65.
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