CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Japanese Yen (USDJPY)

The US Dollar (USD) could break above the major resistance at 151.00, but it might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. In the longer run, there has been a clear increase in momentum; if USD breaks above 151.00, the focus will shift to 152.00, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The focus may shift to 152.00 above 151.00

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to trade in a sideways range of 149.00/150.00 yesterday. USD then dropped to 149.07 before staging a surprising sharp rally, reaching a high of 150.88 in NY trade. The sharp and swift increase in momentum is likely to lead to further USD strength. A break above the major resistance at 151.00 will not be surprising, but overbought conditions suggest USD might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. The next resistance at 151.50 is unlikely to come under threat. Support levels are at 150.30 and 150.00.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have maintained a positive USD stance since early this month. In our most recent narrative from last Friday (18 Oct, spot at 150.00), we highlighted that ‘while USD rose to 150.32, upward momentum has only improved slightly, and it remains to be seen if USD could rise to 151.00.’ We added, ‘a clear break below 149.00 would indicate that the USD strength has ended.’ Yesterday, USD dropped close to 149.00, reaching a low of 149.07. However, it took off from the low and soared to 150.88. This time around, there has been a clear increase in momentum, and if USD breaks above 151.00, the focus will then shift to 151.90. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 149.45 from 149.00.”

• USD/JPY climbs to 150.52, its highest level in 12 weeks, as rising US bond yields fuel demand for the Dollar.
• Technical outlook remains bullish, with potential for further gains if the pair breaks through 150.78 and heads toward the 200-DMA at 151.34.
• A close below 150.00 could trigger a pullback, with key support levels at 149.27 and the 50-DMA at 145.55.

The USD/JPY climbed in the mid-North American session on Monday, up by 0.62%. The pair printed a 12-week peak of 150.52, as US Treasury bond yields rose as traders trimmed odds that the Federal Reserve would embark on an aggressive easing cycle. At the time of writing, the pair fluctuates at around 150.50

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY began the week on the front foot and extended its gains past 150.00. Momentum remains bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is at the brisk of clearing the latest higher peak.

If USD/JPY clears the 100-day moving average (DMA) confluence and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) at 150.78, this could sponsor a leg-up towards the 200-DMA at 151.34. If cleared, buyers would eye 152.00.

Conversely, a daily close below 150.00 would pave the way for a pullback, exposing the Tenkan-Sen at 149.27. Once surpassed, key support levels would be exposed, like 149.00, followed by the Senkou Span at 147.16, before testing the 50-DMA at 145.55.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• USD/JPY broke out of its Wedge pattern but failed to fall far and has recovered. 
• Underlying weakness shows up in the RSI’s divergence with price and could be a precursor to more weakness. 

USD/JPY broke down and out of its Rising Wedge pattern on Friday but has since recovered and returned back inside. 

The trend is at a delicate point and it is ambiguous. It is possible that the uptrend could be resuming and pushing price back up in a “last hurrah”. 

USD/JPY 4-hour Chart 

Alternatively, the bearish divergence between the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator and price (red dotted lines) when comparing the October 16 and 21 lows is indicative of underlying bearish pressure, which, in turn, could suggest the pair could roll over and begin weakening again. 

A break below the 149.09 low formed after the breakout would provide confirmation of more weakness and a change in the short-term trend. This would probably lead to a target at 148.40 as a minimum, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the height of the wedge lower. 

More downside could lead to support at 148.27 (October 10 low) or 147.23 (September 2 high). 

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 149.00/150.00. In the longer run, momentum has improved slightly; it remains to be seen if USD could rise to 151.00, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD can rise to 151.00

24-HOUR VIEW: “After USD soared to a 2-1/2-month high of 150.32 last Thursday, we highlighted on Friday that ‘the advance appears to be running ahead of itself, and USD is unlikely to rise much further.’ We held the view that USD ‘is more likely to trade in a 149.40/150.35 range.’ USD then traded sideways between 149.35 and 150.28, closing at 149.52 (-0.45%). Further sideways trading appears likely today, expected to be in a range of 149.00/150.00.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from last Friday (18 Oct, spot at 150.00) still stands. As highlighted, while USD rose to 150.32, upward momentum has only improved slightly, and it remains to be seen if USD could rise to 151.00. On the downside, a clear break below 149.00 would indicate that the USD strength from early this month has ended.”

USD/JPY eased lower, tracking the dip in UST yields last Fri while markets continue to watch BoJ rhetoric. USD/JPY was last at 150.02, OCBC’s FX analyst Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bias for pullback play

“Last Friday, Governor Ueda said that the outlook for overseas economies including the US is uncertain and financial markets continue to be unstable. He also said that the FX rate is now more likely to impact prices than in the past.”

“Earlier, FX chief Mimura flagged ‘sudden, one-sided move’ in FX. He also said ‘We’ll keep monitoring the forex market with a high sense of urgency, including any speculative moves.”

“Bullish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI shows signs of easing from near overbought conditions. Bias for pullback play. Support seen at 148, 147 (21 DMA). Resistance at 150.70/80 levels (50% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low, 100 DMA).”

• USD/JPY retreats from a two-month high of 150.32, pressured by a decline in US Treasury yields.
• The pair faces key resistance at the 100-DMA and top of the Ichimoku Cloud around 150.84/151.50 before turning bullish.
• Further declines could see USD/JPY testing support at 148.84, with a potential drop to 147.35 if sellers gain momentum.

The USD/JPY retreats after hitting a two-month high of 150.32, edges down over 0.45%, and trades at 149.55 at the time of writing. Broad US Dollar weakness and the US 10-year T-note yield drop capped the pair’s advance to challenge higher prices.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY consolidated after hitting a new monthly high above 150.00, a level last seen since July 2024, yet it retreated somewhat to the 149.50 area, as it continued to climb steadily during the last eight days.

As the pair approaches the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) and the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 150.84, buyers would have a complex scenario to break the 150.85/151.50 area. If surpassed, the USD/JPY would shift bullish, and it could be headed to test the July 30 high at 155.21, the latest swing high before the pair plummeted toward 141.69 on a five-day span.

Conversely, if USD/JPY extends its losses past the Tenkan-Sen at 148.84, sellers could move in and drive the price toward the October 8 low of 147.35 before testing the Senkou Span A at 146.87.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• USD/JPY forms an ominous-looking bearish Rising Wedge pattern. 
• The price pattern warns of potentially more weakness to come.  

USD/JPY keeps rising and forming a Rising Wedge pattern as it closes in on an old major trendline. The wedge is a bearish pattern and suggests the pair is at risk of breaking lower. 

The formation of the pattern radically changes the outlook for the pair. Whilst previously USD/JPY was in a short-term uptrend, it is now more likely to decline if certain conditions are met.

USD/JPY 4-hour Chart 

Momentum, measured by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, has steadily fallen during the formation of the Rising Wedge at the same time as price has risen. This divergence is a bearish sign and adds the picture of downside risk for the pair.

A decisive break below the lower trendline of the wedge would confirm a breakdown. This move would be expected to fall to 148.40 as a minimum, the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the height of the wedge at its tallest part. More downside could lead to support laying at 148.27 (October 10 low) or 147.23 (September 2 high). 

A decisive break would be one characterized by a longer-than-average red candlestick that cleared the lower line of the wedge and closed near its low or three red candles in a row breaking below the bottom of the wedge. 

• USD/JPY encounters offers near 150.00 as the US Dollar struggles to extend its upside further.
• Traders priced out the Fed's larger-than-usual size of 50 bps interest rate cut in November.
• Japan’s National core CPI accelerated to 2.1% in September.

The USD/JPY pair faces selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00 in Friday’s North American session. The asset drops as the three-week rally in the US Dollar (USD) appears to have halted, however, its outlook remains upbeat. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, declines from the 10-week high of 103.90 to near 103.50.

Market sentiment appears to be cheerful as Democratic Kamala Harris leads national polls against Republican Donald Trump by a slight margin. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the early New York session. 10-year US Treasury yields slump to near 4.086%.

The outlook of the US Dollar remains firm as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to follow a moderate interest rate cut path. Traders have priced out Fed large rate cut bets for November as a slew of upbeat United States (US) data has pointed to economic resilience.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data shows that there will be a 50 basis points (bps) decline in interest rates in the remaining year, suggesting that the Fed will cut its borrowing rates by 25 bps in November and December.

On the Tokyo front, Japan’s National core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose by 2.1% in September, faster than 2% in August. Higher inflationary pressures have kept the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on track to hike interest rates further this year.

USD/JPY is struggling to sustain a break above 150.00 as jawboning on the yen resumed, BBH FX analysts note.

USD/JPY tries to sustain a break above 150.00

“Japan’s chief currency official Atsushi Mimura warned at the moment we’re seeing slightly one-sided, sudden moves in the currency market. We’ll keep monitoring the forex market with a high sense of urgency, including any speculative moves.”

“Japan September CPI print was mixed but still argues for a cautious BOJ tightening cycle which can further undermine JPY. Headline CPI inflation matched consensus and slowed to 2.5% y/y vs. 3.0% in August due to subsidies to slash electricity and gas bills. Core (ex-fresh food) fell less than expected to 2.4% y/y (consensus: 2.3%) vs. 2.8% in August but is tracking the BOJ 2024 forecast of 2.5%.”

“Core (ex-fresh food & energy) unexpectedly increased one tick to 2.1% y/y (consensus: 2.0%) and remains slightly above the BOJ 2024 forecast of 1.9%.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 149.40/150.35 range. In the longer, momentum has improved slightly; it remains to be seen if USD could rise to 151.00, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia notes.  

Likely to trade in a 149.40/150.35 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “We did not anticipate USD to soar to 150.32 (we were expecting range trading). The advance appears to be running ahead of itself, and USD is unlikely to rise much further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a 149.40/150.35 range.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view since the start of this month. As we tracked the advance, we indicated two days ago (16 Oct, spot at 149.10) that ‘the price action over the past few days did not result in further increase in momentum.’ We highlighted that ‘a breach of 148.40 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that USD is not rising further.’ Yesterday, USD broke clearly above 150.00, reaching a high of 150.32. Momentum has improved, albeit not much, and it remains to be seen if USD could rise to 151.00. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 149.00 from 148.40.”

• USD/JPY softens to near 150.05 despite stronger USD in Friday’s Asian session. 
• Japan's CPI inflation drops from 3.0% to 2.5% in September. 
• The upbeat US economic data strengthens the case for 25 bps Fed rate cuts.

The USD/JPY pair edges lower to around 150.05 despite the firmer US dollar (USD) on Friday during the early Asian session. Investors will keep an eye on the US Building Permits and Housing Starts, which are due later on Friday. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller are also set to speak later in the day. 

Japan's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% in September, compared to 3.0% reported in August, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy grew 2.1% year-over-year in September. The CPI excluding fresh food climbed by 2.4% on an annual basis during the same period. The figure came in slightly stronger than the consensus estimate of 2.3%.

The slowdown in price gains might have a limited impact on the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy path. The BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Japanese central bank will keep raising rates if inflation remains on track to stably hit the 2% target, adding that the BoJ will spend time gauging how global economic uncertainties affect Japan's fragile recovery. The BoJ is widely expected to hold the benchmark rate steady on October 31. 

“The BOJ is waiting to see how the US economy holds up before raising rates further. We think it will be able to confirm a US soft landing by the time it holds its January board meeting,” noted Taro Kimura, economist from Bloomberg Economics. 

On the USD’s front, the stronger-than-expected US September Retail sales indicated the US economy maintained a strong growth pace in the third quarter. This, in turn, might cap the downside for the US Dollar (USD). 

The US Fed is likely to maintain a very cautious approach to cutting rates. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he has one more 25 bps rate cut pencilled in for this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that future interest rate cuts would be “modest” and emphasized that policy decisions would depend on economic data. Money markets are now pricing a 90.3% probability of a 25bps rate cut next month, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. 

• USD/JPY trades at 150.21, extending its gains for a second consecutive day amid rising US bond yields.
• RSI signals growing bullish momentum, with the pair approaching key resistance at the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo).
• Next resistance levels include the 100-DMA at 150.85 and the 200-DMA at 151.32, with support at 150.00 and 149.00.

The USD/JPY climbs past the 150.00 figure on upbeat US Retail Sales and jobs data, gains over 0.38%, and trades at 150.21. The pair extended its gains for the second consecutive day, as US Treasury bond yields soared, due to investors trimming the odds for a Fed 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the upcoming November meeting.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY continues its upward trajectory, and it is about to test the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo). Technical indicators suggest the major is on an uptrend, though a clear break above the Kumo is needed before the trend is confirmed.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) cleared the last three peaks, hinting that buyers are gathering steam.

If USD/JPY resumes its bullish uptrend, buyers will face the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 150.85. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the confluence of the top of the Kumo and the 200-DMA at 151.32, ahead of extending those gains to 152.00.

Conversely, USD/JPY first support would be 150.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 149.00 mark, ahead of the Tenkan-Sen at 148.84. If those levels are taken, the next support would be the Senkou Span A at 14690, followed by the 50-DMA at 145.50.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• USD/JPY is in a short-term uptrend but it appears to be losing momentum.
• The pair could still go higher but downside risks have increased. 

USD/JPY continues making higher highs and higher lows as it extends its short-term uptrend towards the underside of the major trendline in the 151.00s. 

Bullish momentum has eased off, however, suggesting bulls could be running out of steam, and although the uptrend is intact there exists an increased risk of a pull back developing.

USD/JPY 4-hour Chart 

A break above 149.98 (October 14 high) would confirm a further extension to the next target at 151.09 (200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (not shown)). A break above that would indicate a move up to the major trendline in the 151.80s. 

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has dropped off considerably at the last peak – a further sign of underlying weakness.  

If a correction evolves, support lies at 148.27 (October 10 low) or 147.23 (September 2 high).

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range, likely between 148.90 and 149.90. In the longer run, there has been no further increase in momentum; a breach of 148.40 would indicate that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

To trade between 148.90 and 149.90

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to trade in a 148.55/149.60 range yesterday. USD then traded between 148.86 and 149.81, closing 149.62 (+0.29%). The price movements provide no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range, likely between 148.90 and 149.90.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (16 Oct, spot at 149.10). As highlighted, the price action over the past few days did not result in further increase in momentum. From here, a breach of 148.40 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that USD is not rising further. Note that we have held a positive USD view since the start of the month. On the upside, if USD were to break and remain above 150.05, it would increase the chance of it rising further to 151.00.”

• USD/JPY edges lower to near 149.40 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
• The rising bets that the Fed will gradually lower interest rates in the remainder of the year might support the USD. 
• Investors will take more cues from Japan’s September National CPI inflation data on Friday. 

The USD/JPY pair weakens to around 149.40 despite the stronger US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Retail Sales data will take center stage later on Thursday, which is estimated to rise to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in the previous reading. 

The US economic data showed a resilient economy and inflation in September rose slightly more than expected, prompting traders to trim bets on further large rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, could lift the Greenback against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Traders have assigned a nearly 100% odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November, with just a 0.2% possibility of a pause by the Fed, keeping the fed funds rate at the 4.75%-5.0% target range, according to LSEG calculations.

Nonetheless, persistent geopolitical risks and US election uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the JPY. Israel’s plan to respond to this month’s Iranian attack is ready, per CNN. US officials expect it to happen before the US presidential election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu separately stated Israel is opposed to a “unilateral ceasefire” in its war with Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Data released by the Ministry of Finance showed on Thursday that Japan’s exports fell 1.7% year-over-year in September from a revised rate of 5.5% in August. Meanwhile, imports grew 2.1% year-over-year in September, compared to 2.3% the month prior. Both figures came in weaker than the expectations. 

Investors await the nation’s September National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday for fresh impetus. The National CPI ex Fresh Food is expected to ease to 2.3% in September from 2.8% in August. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) challenge in proceeding with policy normalization amid uncertainty over the new political leadership's preference for monetary settings might cap the upside for the JPY in the near term. 

• USD/JPY rises from a two-day low of 148.85, gaining strength amid dip-buying and risk-on sentiment.
• The pair remains within the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling neutral-to-upward bias but suggesting the uptrend could be overextended.
• A break above 150.00 could target the 100-DMA at 150.98, while 149.00 provides key short-term support for bulls.

The US Dollar prints solid gains of more than 0.30% against the Japanese Yen after the pair dropped to a two-day low of 148.85, yet buyers bought the dip and push the exchange rate higher. Although US Treasury bond yields dropped, the USD/JPY trades at 149.71, above its opening price.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart suggests that USD/JPY is on a steady upward trajectory, though it maintains a neutral-to-upward bias. While technical signals indicate that buyers are in control, USD/JPY remains within the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), which is limiting its advance. Additionally, despite bullish conditions, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has failed to surpass its last three peaks, indicating that the uptrend could be overextended.

If USD/JPY rises above 150.00, it could pave the way for a move towards the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 150.98, followed by the 200-DMA at 151.27.

Conversely, if USD/JPY drops below 149.00, the Tenkan-Sen at 147.95 will act as the first support for bulls. If breached, the next key support levels would be the Senkou Span A at 146.48, followed by the 50-DMA at 145.36.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

• USD/JPY trades sideways near 149.00 amid uncertainty over the Fed interest rate outlook.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in November and December too.
• Investors will pay close attention to Japan’s National CPI data for September.

The USD/JPY pair trades in a tight range near 149.00 in Wednesday’s North American session. The asset consolidates as investors look for fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the remaining year.

Market sentiment remains risk-averse amid growing speculation that former US President Donald Trump could win presidential elections, which are scheduled on November 5. The S&P 500 trades cautiously in the opening session. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades in a tight range near a two-month high around 103.40.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data shows that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in both policy meetings in November and December.

Lately, traders have priced out Fed large rate cut bets as a string of United States (US) data for September showed that economic prospects are not as bad as they appeared earlier. US Nonfarm Payrolls and the Services PMI grew at a robust pace, with inflationary pressures rising faster-than-expected.

On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has remained under pressure from a past few weeks as investors doubt about more rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the remainder of the year. For fresh interest rate cues, investors will pay close attention to the Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published on Friday. National CPI ex Fresh Food is estimated to have grown at a slower pace to 2.3% from 2.8% in August.

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 148.55/149.60 range. In the longer run, there has been no further increase in momentum; a breach of 148.40 would indicate that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD has a chance to break below 148.40

24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, USD rose to 149.98. Yesterday, we indicated that ‘despite the advance, there has been no significant increase in momentum.’ We also indicated that ‘instead of continuing to advance, USD is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 149.00 and 149.95.’ USD then traded in a range of 148.84/149.83, closing at 149.19 (-0.37%). While further range trading appears likely today, the slightly softened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 148.55/149.60.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have been expecting a higher USD since early this month. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (10 Oct, spot at 149.20), we highlighted that “although upward momentum has not increased much, further USD strength seems likely, and the levels to watch are at 150.05 and 151.00.” USD rose to 149.98 two days ago before easing off. There has been no further increase in momentum, and a breach of 148.40 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that USD is not rising further.”

• USD/JPY slips to 149.21 as US 10-year Treasury yield drops over eight basis points.
• Despite recent dip, the pair remains in a neutral to bullish stance, hovering inside the Ichimoku Cloud.
• Key support at 149.00; a break below could trigger further declines towards 147.95 and beyond.

The USD/JPY slipped over 0.30% on Tuesday due to risk aversion and falling US Treasury bond yields. The US 10-year benchmark note rate plummeted over eight basis points (bps) and pushed the exchange rate lower due to its positive correlation with the pair. At the time of writing, the major trades at 149.21, flat as Wednesday’s Asian session begins.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart suggests the USD/JPY is aimed steadily higher, though it is neutral to upward biased.

Although technical signals suggest buyers are in charge, the USD/JPY remains inside the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) and caps its advance. Also, despite being bullish, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has failed to clear the latest three peaks, showing the uptrend could be overextended.

With USD/JPY climbing above 150.00, this clears the path for a move upwards to the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 150.98, ahead of the 200-DMA at 151.27.

If USD/JPY falls below 149.00, the Tenkan-Sen at 147.95 emerges as the first line of defense for bulls. Once surpassed, the Senkou Span A at 146.48, followed by the 50-DMA at 145.36, would be the next key support levels.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart