CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Chinese Renminbi Yuan (USDCNH)

USD/CNH should extend its fall below 7.00 following last week’s 0.9% decline to 6.9815. The pair was last seen at 6.9952, DBS FX analyst Philip Wee notes.

Additional fiscal measures are expected

“The CSI 300 Index surged 15.7% last week, its best weekly performance since November 2008, on China’s most significant monetary stimulus package since the Covid-19 pandemic to support the property sector and shore up capital markets.”

“Additional fiscal measures are expected as China seeks to achieve its 5% growth target. An announcement is likely before the National People’s Congress meeting in the second half of October.”

“The US Treasury Department welcomed last week’s stimulus measures but emphasized the need for increased domestic demand over reliance on exports.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge lower; any decline is not expected to reach the support at 6.9400. In the longer run, price action continues to suggest USD weakness, albeit likely at a slower pace; the levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Thursday, USD plummeted and closed sharply lower. Last Friday, we indicated that ‘the outsized decline has resulted in oversold conditions, and USD is unlikely to weaken much further.’ We expected USD to ‘trade in a range between 6.9700 and 7.0100.’ USD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (6.9725/7.0040). Despite closing slightly higher at 6.9806 (+0.11%), the underlying tone appears to have softened. Today, we expect USD to drift lower, but any decline is unlikely to reach the support at 6.9400 (there is a minor support level at 6.9580). Resistance is at 6.9930, followed by 7.0050.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as last Friday (27 Sep, spot at 6.9810). As indicated, the recent price action continues to suggest USD weakness, albeit likely at a slower pace. The levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200. On the upside, a breach of 7.0350 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 7.0450 last Friday) would mean that USD is not weakening further.”