CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Chinese Renminbi Yuan (USDCNH)

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 6.9700 and 7.0100. In the longer run, price action continues to suggest USD weakness, albeit likely at a slower pace; the levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Markets to monitor support levels at 6.9400 and 6.9200

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD rebounded strongly on Wednesday. Yesterday (Thursday), we pointed out that ‘the rebound lacks momentum, and instead of continuing to advance, USD is more likely to trade in a 7.0180/7.0430 range.’ Instead of trading in a range, USD plummeted to a low of 6.9717, closing lower by a whopping 0.84% (6.9730). Inevitably, the outsized decline has resulted in oversold conditions, and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 6.9700 and 7.0100.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in USD last Friday (20 Sep) when it was trading at 7.0700, indicating that it ‘is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.0500.’ After USD plunged, in our most recent narrative from two days ago (25 Sep, spot at 6.9990), we highlighted that ‘after the recent sharp drop, it is not unreasonable to expect further USD weakness, particularly when there are no significant support levels close by.’ We also pointed out that ‘the short-term levels to monitor are 6.9700 and 6.9400.’ Yesterday, USD sold off to a low of 6.9717. While the price action continues to suggest further USD weakness, severely oversold short-term conditions are likely to lead to a slower pace of decline. The levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200. We will continue to expect a lower USD provided that 7.0450 (‘strong resistance’ previously at 7.0600) is not breached.”

It is not unreasonable to expect further USD weakness, particularly when there are no significant support levels close by, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Short-term levels to monitor are 6.9700 and 6.9400

24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, USD plummeted. Yesterday, we indicated that ‘further sharp declines appear likely, and support is at 6.9700.’ USD then dropped to 6.9952 and then rebounded strongly. The rebound lacks momentum, and instead of continuing to advance, USD is more likely to trade in a 7.0180/7.0430 range today.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (25 Sep, spot at 6.9990) remains valid. As highlighted, after the recent sharp drop, it is not unreasonable to expect further USD weakness, particularly when there no significant support levels close by. Meanwhile, the short-term levels to monitor are 6.9700 and 6.9400. Overall, we will continue to expect a lower USD provided that 7.0600 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.”

• USD/CNH gained ground following China’s plans for fresh stimulus measures to support its economy.
• China plans to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks, which are facing challenges.
• CME FedWatch Tool suggests around a 50% chance of totaling 75 basis points Fed rate cuts in 2024.

USD/CNH loses ground as China announces plans for additional stimulus measures to bolster its economy, offsetting the diminishing effects of Tuesday’s measures. The USD/CNH pair trades around 7.00 during the European hours on Thursday. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0354, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0202 and 7.0367 Reuters estimates.

China plans to inject over CNY 1 trillion in capital into its largest state banks, which are facing challenges such as shrinking margins, declining profits, and increasing bad loans. This substantial capital infusion would mark the first of its kind since the 2008 global financial crisis.

The US Dollar (USD) receives downward pressure from rising odds of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in upcoming policy meetings. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in around a 50% chance of totaling 75 basis points to be deducted by the Fed to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of this year.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said on Wednesday that she “strongly supported” the Fed’s decision to cut the interest rates by a half point last week. Kugler further stated that it will be appropriate to make additional rate cuts if inflation continues to ease as expected, per Bloomberg.

Traders will likely observe the release of the final US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the second quarter (Q2) scheduled to be released later in the North American session.

Further sharp declines appear likely; support is at 6.9700. Not unreasonable to expect further US Dollar (USD) weakness, particularly when there are no significant support levels close by, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD/CNH to continue to trade lower

24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp selloff that sent USD plunging yesterday took us by surprise (we were expecting consolidation). Not surprisingly, further USD weakness seems likely today. As the next support is some distance away at 6.9700, we could continue to see sharp declines today. On the upside, any short-term rebound is likely to remain below 7.0380 with minor resistance at 7.0200.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in USD last Friday (20 Sep, spot at 7.0700), indicating that it “is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.0500.” After USD fell sharply, in our most recent narrative from two days ago (23 Sep, spot at 7.0450), we indicated that “the sharp decline has resulted in further increase in downward momentum, and USD is likely to continue to weaken, potentially to 7.0100.” Yesterday, USD fell to 7.0117. Today, USD fell below 7.0000. Given the impulsive price movements, it is not unreasonable to expect further USD weakness, particularly when there are no significant support levels close by. Meanwhile, the short-term levels to monitor are 6.9700 and 6.9400. Overall, we will continue to expect a lower USD provided that 7.0600 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 7.0770) is not breached.”

Optimism from China’s recent support measures and renewed USD softness have manifested onto gains in the CNH, OCBC’s FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD softness manifests as gains in the CNH

“USD/CNH briefly traded a low of 6.9950 before rebounding. The big decline in USDCNH past key psychological level saw various USD/AXJs trade lower. For instance, USD/SGD traded close to 1.28-lows while USD/MYR went below 4.11 briefly (vs. close of 4.1578 yesterday). A combination of further gains in RMB, growth in the region looking well, Fed easing cycle and softer USD should continue to benefit AXJ FX.”

“On the daily fix, USD/CNY was set at 7.0202, largely in line with Bloomberg consensus for 7.0206. Markets were earlier watching if policymakers will explicitly push back against RMB appreciation (by signaling via the fix) and it appeared there was no strong push back. The momentum forward for RMB should take cues from China equity markets.”

“More sustained gains should see RMB trade with a tighter correlation. USD/CNH was last at 7.0130 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near oversold conditions. Intra-day retracement not ruled out. Resistance at 7.0330 (50% fibo), 7.07 levels. Bias to sell rallies. Support at 6.99, 6.9540 (61.8% fibo).”

Sharp decline has resulted in increase in momentum; USD is likely to continue to weaken, potentially to 7.0100, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD/CNH to continue falling towards 7.0100

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD fell sharply two days ago. Yesterday, we indicated that ‘while further USD weakness appears likely today, oversold conditions suggest any further decline could be relatively limited.’ We added, ‘the levels to watch are 7.0380 and 7.0270.’ However, USD did not decline much further, rebounding to 7.0650. The current price action is likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect USD to trade in a 7.0450/7.0680 range.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in USD last Friday (20 Sep, spot at 7.0700), indicating that it ‘is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.0500.’ After USD fell to a low of 7.0387, we indicated yesterday (23 Sep, spot at 7.0450) that ‘the sharp decline has resulted in further increase in downward momentum, and USD is likely to continue to weaken, potentially to 7.0100.’ While the subsequent sharp rebound has dented the momentum somewhat, our view remains unchanged for now. However, a breach of 7.0770 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that USD is not weakening further.”

Further US Dollar (USD) weakness appears likely; oversold conditions suggest declines could be relatively limited. In the longer run, sharp decline has resulted in increase in momentum; USD is likely to continue to weaken, potentially to 7.0100, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is likely to continue to weaken, potentially to 7.0100

24-HOUR VIEW: “Levels to watch are 7.0380 and 7.0270. Last Friday, we held the view that ‘there is scope for USD to break below 7.0600, but the next support 7.0500 is unlikely to come into view.’ The anticipated weakness exceeded our expectation as USD plummeted to a low of 7.0387, closing on a weak note at 7.0432 (- 0.41%). While further USD weakness appears likely today, oversold conditions suggest any further decline could be relatively limited. The levels to watch are 7.0380 and 7.0270. To maintain the momentum, USD must remain below 7.0610 with minor resistance at 7.0530.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in USD last Friday (20 Sep, spot at 7.0700), indicating that it ‘is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.0500.’ While our view was not wrong, the subsequent sharp selloff that sent it to a low of 7.0387 was surprising. Not surprisingly, the sharp decline has resulted in further increase in downward momentum. USD is likely to continue to weaken, potentially to 7.0100. On the upside, a breach of 7.0770 (‘strong resistance’ was at 7.1100 last Friday) would mean that USD is not weakening further.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.0500, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD to trade towards 7.0500

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for USD to trade in a 7.0850/7.1150 range was incorrect, as it rose to 7.1133 and then plummeted to 7.0601. While the sharp drop appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for USD to break below 7.0600 today. The next support 7.0500 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance levels are at 7.0800 and 7.0970.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “On Tuesday (17 Sep, spot at 7.1005), we indicated that USD ‘is likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.0700/7.1300.’ Yesterday, USD fell and broke below 7.0700, reaching a low of 7.0601. Downward momentum has increased, albeit not much. From here, provided that USD remain 7.1100, we expect USD to trade with a downward bias towards 7.0500.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.0700/7.1300, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Rangebound for the time being

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we expected USD to trade in a range between 7.0900 and 7.1100 USD subsequently traded in a slightly higher range of 7.0928/7.1118. The price movements did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, we continue to expect USD to trade in a range, likely between 7.0910 and 7.1110.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (17 Sep, spot at 7.1005) remains valid. As highlighted, momentum indicators are mostly neutral, and USD is likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.0700/7.1300.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.0900 and 7.1100. In the longer run, USD is likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.0700/7.1300, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Rangebound within the 7.0900/7.1100 range in short term

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, USD traded between 7.0882 and 7.1046, closing largely unchanged at 7.0983 (-0.01%). There has been no increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.0900 and 7.1100.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “USD traded sideways over the past week or so. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral, and further sideways trading seems likely, expected to be in a range of 7.0700/7.1300.”

A break above the major resistance at 7.1330 is not ruled out; a sustained rise above this level seems unlikely for now. In the longer run, there has been an increase in momentum, but the US Dollar (USD) has to break and remain above 7.1350 before a sustained rise is likely, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Bulls are set to push towards 7.1330

24-HOUR VIEW: “While we expected USD to edge higher yesterday, we were of the view that ‘any advance is part of a higher trading range of 7.0850/7.1150.’ However, USD rose more than expected to 7.1250, closing on a firm note at 7.1220 (+0.35%). The increase in momentum is likely to lead to further USD strength. A break above the major resistance at 7.1330 is not ruled out, but a sustained rise above this level seems unlikely for now. Support levels are at 7.1140 and 7.1000.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday, when USD was at 7.1020, we indicated that ‘the current price movements are likely part of a sideways trading phase.’ We expect USD ‘to trade between 7.0650 and 7.1350 for the time being.’ USD then rose to 7.1250. There has been an increase in momentum, but not sufficiently enough to suggest the start of a sustained advance. USD has to break and remain above 7.1350 before a sustained rise is likely. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 7.1350 is high for now, but it will improve as long as 7.0800 is not taken out. Looking ahead, the next resistance above 7.1350 is at 7.1700.”

For the time being, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways between 7.0650 and 7.1350, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Alvin Liew note.

Rangebound between 7.0650 and 7.1350

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD traded in a range of 7.0738/7.1001 last Friday, closing little changed at 7.0969 (+0.09%). It traded on a firm note in early Asian trade today, but while it could edge higher, we view any advance as part of a higher trading range of 7.0850/7.1150. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly either below 7.0850 or above 7.1150.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “The current price movements are likely part of a sideways trading phase. For the time being, we expect USD to trade between 7.0650 and 7.1350. Looking ahead, USD has to break clearly below 7.0650 or above 7.1350 before a sustained move can be expected.”

USD/CNH traded a low of 7.0710 last Fri following the break below 7.10 psychological level, OCBC’s FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.

It’s appreciation time for USD/CNH

“Market chatters of exporters caught long USD, rushing to offload after the pair broke key levels and month-end distortion. Daily momentum is flat while RSI shows signs of turning higher near oversold conditions. Rebound risk is not ruled out but technical levels can be breached if the USD bear trend continues.”

“Ongoing market chatters of USD conversion flows from exporters, funds may see bigger slippage if there is a panic rush and typically the break of downside key level can accelerate this move. Potential unwinding of Trump bets/hedges may also be another driver adding to the sell-off in USD/CNH. Key support at 7.07/7.08. If broken puts next support at 7.03, 7 levels (major support). Resistance at 7.14.”

“We will also pay close attention to USD/CNY daily fix for gauge on how comfortable policymakers are with regards to the pace of RMB appreciation. Today’s fix was set at 7.1027 even though USD/CNH was trading around 7.09. This may imply that policymakers are trying to slow the pace of appreciation this time.”

Provided that 7.1130 is not breached, the US Dollar (USD) could continue to decline; the likelihood of it reaching 7.0636 is not high. In the longer run, boost in momentum has increased the chance of USD dropping to and potentially breaking below 7.0636, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes.

USD continues to decline

24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp selloff in USD that sent it plunging by 0.52% (NY close of 7.0943) was surprising (we were expecting sideways trading). What is not surprising is the decline has resulted in a strong increase in momentum. Today, provided that 7.1130 (minor resistance at 7.1010) is not breached, USD could continue to decline. That said, the likelihood of it reaching 7.0636, the low registered early this month, is not high. There is another support level at 7.0770.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “On Monday (26 Aug, spot at 7.1100), we indicated that ‘there is potential for USD to decline to the July’s low of 7.0636.’ Yesterday (29 Aug, spot at 7.1290), we indicated that “downward momentum is slowing, and should USD breach 7.1460 (‘strong resistance level’), it would mean that USD is not declining further. USD subsequently sold off sharply, dropping to a low of 7.0859. The boost in momentum has increased the chance of USD dropping to and potentially breaking below 7.0636. Looking ahead, the next level to watch below 7.0636 is 7.0400. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 7.1350 from 7.1460.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways between 7.1150 and 7.1350. In the longer run, downward momentum has increased sharply, suggesting there is potential for USD to decline to 7.0636, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Potential to decline towards 7.0636

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we held the view that USD ‘could drop further to 7.0900 before stabilisation can be expected.’ However, USD fell less than expected, rebounding from 7.1069 to 7.1251. USD closed at 7.1239 (+0.11%). Downward pressure appears to have faded. Today, USD is likely to trade sideways, probably between 7.1150 and 7.1350.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After USD fell last Friday, we indicated yesterday (26 Aug, spot at 7.1100) that downward momentum has increased sharply, suggesting there is potential for USD to decline to the July’s low of 7.0636. While USD did not make further headway on the downside, we continue to hold the same view for now. Only a breach of 7.1460 (no change in ‘strong resistance level from yesterday) would mean that USD is not declining further.”

The ‘strong resistance’ level for the US Dollar (USD) has moved lower to 7.1460 from 7.1750, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD may try to come back to 7.1460

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD plummeted last Friday, and it continues to decline today. While oversold, USD could drop further towards 7.0900 before stabilisation can be expected. The next support at 7.0636 is unlikely to come into view. Resistance levels are at 7.1200 and 7.1300.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (22 Aug, spot at 7.1300), we highlighted that ‘the recent price action has resulted in an increase in downward momentum, albeit not much.’ We added, ‘as long as USD remains below 7.1750, it is likely to edge lower in the coming days.’ However, we noted that ‘given the mild downward pressure, any decline is unlikely to reach July’s low of 7.0636.’ Last Friday, USD fell by 0.42% (NY close of 7.1163). Downward momentum has increased sharply, suggesting that there is potential for USD to decline to 7.0636. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 7.1460 from 7.1750.”