CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Chinese Renminbi Yuan (USDCNH)

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a 7.2630/7.2930 range. In the longer run, upward momentum has slowed with sharp pullback; a breach of 7.2630 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Upward momentum has slowed with sharp pullback

24-HOUR VIEW: “On Tuesday, USD soared to a high of 7.3145. Yesterday (Wednesday), we stated that ‘despite being deeply overbought, the advance appears to have enough momentum to retest the 7.3145 level before a more sustained pullback can be expected.’ We added, ‘the next resistance at 7.3300 is not expected to come under threat.’ However, USD pulled back from a high of 7.3060, reaching a low of 7.2673. USD closed at 7.2789 (-0.27%). The decline appears to be running ahead of itself, and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, we expect USD to trade in a 7.2630/7.2930 range.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned positive in USD two days (03 Dec, spot at 7.2880), indicating the ‘rapid increase in momentum could lead to USD rising to 7.3115.’ After USD surpassed the 7.3115 level, we highlighted yesterday (04 Dec, spot at 7.2975) that ‘momentum remains strong, and now that USD has broken above 7.3145, the next significant resistance level is at 7.3678, last year’s high.’ We did not expect the subsequent sharp pullback that reached a low of 7.2673. Upward momentum has slowed with the pullback. From here, if USD breaks below 7.2630 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), it would mean that it is not rising further.”

Overbought advance could retest the 7.3145 level before a more sustained pullback can be expected. Momentum remains strong; the next significant resistance is at last year’s high of 7.3678, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.  

Next significant resistance is at last year’s high of 7.3678

24-HOUR VIEW: “While we held the view that USD ‘may rise further and break above 7.3000’ yesterday, we indicated that ‘the major resistance at 7.3115 is likely out of reach for now.’ We underestimated the upward momentum, as USD soared to a high of 7.3145, easing off to close at 7.2985, higher by 0.17% for the day. Despite being deeply overbought, the advance appears to have enough momentum to retest the 7.3145 level before a more sustained pullback can be expected. The next resistance at 7.3300 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, support is at 7.2860, followed by 7.2750.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned positive in USD yesterday (03 Dec, spot at 7.2880), indicating the ‘rapid increase in momentum could lead to USD rising to 7.3115.’ We did not expect USD to exceed the technical target as quickly, as it surged to a high of 7.3145. Momentum remains strong, and now that USD has broken above 7.3145, the next significant resistance level is at 7.3678, last year’s high. To sustain the momentum, USD must not break below 7.2630 (‘strong support’ level was at 7.2550 yesterday).”

USD/CNH eased as policymakers continued to keep the daily fix under 7.20. In fact, the CNY fix was even set stronger at 7.1934 than the day before (at 7.1996). Pair was last at 7.2838, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

CNH may still trade under pressure

“Fixing pattern suggests that PBoC is doing whatever it takes to restraint the RMB from over-weakening after the initial round of knee-jerk depreciation post-US election outcome. That said, tariff headlines served as a constant reminder that wider tariffs could soon hit when Trump comes on board officially in Jan2025. PBoC may continue to restraint the RMB from excessive weakening via daily fix, but likely they may have to deploy offshore funding squeeze (if need arises) to ensure more effective transmission.”

“CNH may still trade under pressure expectations for further rate cuts at home while economic recovery remains uneven. Caixin services PMI was weaker than expected while manufacturing PMI was stronger than expected. Housing market has also showed very mixed signs of stabilisation. While there may be other stimulus support measures to support the domestic economy, these are at best mitigating factors only.”

“Meantime the bias for RMB may be skewed towards further weakening (notwithstanding some short-term technical correction). Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI shows signs of turning from near-overbought conditions. Corrective pullback not ruled out. Support at 7.2745 and 7.2440 (21 DMA). Resistance at 7.32, 7.3450 levels.”

The US Dollar (USD) may rise further and break above 7.3000; the major resistance at 7.3115 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum could lead to USD rising to 7.3115, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Rapid increase in momentum can lead to 7.3115

24-HOUR VIEW: “We did not anticipate USD to lift off and surged to 7.2954 (we were expecting range trading). While conditions are deeply overbought, robust momentum suggests USD may rise further and break above 7.3000. The major resistance at 7.3115 is likely out of reach for now. To maintain the momentum, USD must stay above 7.2700, with minor support at 7.2780.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted last Thursday (28 Nov, spot at 7.2500) that the recent ‘upward momentum has faded.’ We also highlighted that ‘The current price action is likely part of a consolidation range, and we expect USD to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2800 for the time being.’ Yesterday, in a sudden move, USD took off and surged to a high of 7.2954. The rapid increase in momentum could lead to USD rising to the resistance at 7.3115. Looking ahead, a clear break of this level will shift the focus to 7.3678. On the downside, a breach of 7.2550 would mean that our positive USD view is incorrect.”

CNH continued to trade under pressure amid expectations for further rate cuts at home while economic recovery remains uneven. Pair was last at 7.3013, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

PBoC may continue to restraint the RMB

“US tariffs can further hurt RMB. Yesterday, President Biden fired a parting shot in tightening curbs on China’s access to AI memory and chips tools. Recent tariff headlines served as a constant reminder that wider tariffs could soon hit when Trump comes on board officially in Jan-2025.”

“PBoC may continue to restraint the RMB from excessive weakening via daily fix, but likely they may have to also use offshore funding squeeze (not used yet) to ensure more effective transmission. Elsewhere, there may be other stimulus support measures to support the domestic economy, but these are at best mitigating factors only.”

“Path of least resistance for RMB may be skewed towards further weakening. Daily momentum shows signs of turning bullish while RSI rose towards overbought conditions. Upside risks intact. Resistance at 7.32, 7.3450 levels. Support at 7.29, 7.2745 levels.”

Weekend comments merely add another layer of tariff threats to China, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner note.

USD/CNY set to test the upper 2% band of the onshore range

“Overnight, USD/CNH has pushed up to the highest levels since July as the People's Bank of China fixed USD/CNY close to 7.20.”

“It looks like USD/CNY will test the upper 2% band (7.3430 if fixings remain near 7.20) of the onshore range.”

Despite no significant increase in downward momentum, there is room for the US Dollar (USD) to edge lower to 7.2380. In the longer run, momentum has largely faded; USD is likely to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2800 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD to edge lower to 7.2380

24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, USD rose to 7.2730, then pulled back. Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘Upward pressure appears to have eased with the pullback.’ We added, ‘instead of continuing to advance, USD is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.2450/7.2660.’ USD then rose to 7.2695, dropped to 7.2425 before closing at 7.2479, lower by 0.15%. Despite no significant increase in downward momentum, there is room for USD to edge lower to 7.2380 before a rebound is likely. The major support at 7.2200 is unlikely to be tested. Resistance is at 7.2590, followed by 7.2660.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (26 Nov, spot at 7.2630), we noted that ‘momentum is building again.’ We added, ‘USD could break above 7.2800, but it is too early to determine if 7.3115 is within reach.’ Since then, USD has not been able to make much headway on the upside. The buildup in momentum has largely faded. The current price action is likely part of a consolidation range, and we expect USD to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2800 for the time being. Looking ahead, USD has to break clearly above 7.2800 before a sustained advance is likely.”

Instead of continuing to rise, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a sideways range between 7.2450 and 7.2660. In the longer run, momentum is building again; USD could break above 7.2800, but it is too early to determine if 7.3115 is within reach, UOB Group’s FX analyst Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD likely to trade between 7.2450 and 7.2660

24-HOUR VIEW: “After USD soared in early Asian trade yesterday, we indicated that ‘the sharp and swift rally appears to be overextended.’ However, we were of the view that ‘there is room for USD to test the major resistance at 7.2800 before levelling off.’ While USD rose as expected, it only reached a high of 7.2730 before pulling back. Upward pressure appears to have eased with the pullback. Today, instead of continuing to advance, USD is more likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.2450 and 7.2660.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (26 Nov, spot at 7.2630), we noted that “momentum is building again.” We added, “USD could break above 7.2800, but it is too early to determine if 7.3115 is within reach.” We continue to hold the same view. On the downside, a breach of 7.2200 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), would mean that the USD strength from early this month has ended.”

Room for the sharp rally to test 7.2800 before levelling off; the next resistance at 7.3000 is unlikely to come into view. In the longer run, momentum is building again; USD could break above 7.2800, but it is too early to determine if 7.3115 is within reach, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

There’s room for a test of 7.2800 before levelling off

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD indicated the following yesterday: ‘The outlook is mixed, and today, we expect USD to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2600.’ USD then traded in a narrower range of 7.2360/7.2577. USD closed at 7.2466, but jumped shortly after opening in Asian trade today. While USD could continue to advance, the sharp and swift rally appears to be overextended. That said, there is room for USD to test the major resistance at 7.2800 before levelling off. The next resistance at 7.3000 is unlikely to come into view. On the downside, support levels are at 7.2550 and 7.2430.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive view for more than two weeks now. In our latest narrative from last Monday (18 Nov, spot at 7.2350), we indicated that ‘momentum is beginning to slow, and if USD breaks below 7.2000 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.’ USD traded in a relatively quiet manner until today, when in a sudden move, it soared. Momentum is building again, and USD could break above 7.2800. At this time, it is too early to determine whether there is enough momentum for it to reach 7.3115 (there is another resistance at 7.3000). Meanwhile, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 7.2200.”

The US Dollar (USD) is expected USD to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2600. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analyst Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes.

Below 7.2000, USD set to not rise further

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, we held the view that USD ‘could rise to 7.2630.’ We were also of the view that ‘the major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach.’ Our view was not wrong, as USD rose to 7.2670. USD closed at 7.2590 but opened sharply lower today. The outlook is mixed, and today, we expect USD to trade between 7.2300 and 7.2600.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have a positive view for more two weeks now. In our latest narrative from last Monday (18 Nov, spot at 7.2350), we indicated that ‘momentum is beginning to slow, and if USD breaks below 7.2000 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.’ There is no change in our view.”

The US Dollar (USD) could to rise to 7.2630; the major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Momentum is beginning to slow

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we were of the view that ‘there is scope for USD to rise to 7.2630’. However, USD rose less that expected to 7.2598, closing largely unchanged at 7.2559 (+0.08%). The underlying tone still seems firm, and we continue to hold the view that USD could rise to 7.2630. The major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach. The mild upward pressure is intact provided that 7.2370 is not breached (minor support is at 7.2440).”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After expecting a higher USD for more than a week, we indicated on Monday (18 Nov, spot at 7.2350) that ‘momentum is beginning to slow, and if USD breaks below 7.2000 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.’ USD traded in a relatively quiet manner of the past few days, and our view remains unchanged. However, the ‘strong support’ level has edged higher to 7.2100 from 7.2000.”

Scope for the US Dollar (USD) to rise to 7.2630; the major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Below 7.2000 the USD is not going to rise further

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we indicated that USD could weaken further. We were incorrect. Instead of weakening, USD rose to 7.2556, closing at 7.2501 (+0.24%). Upward momentum has increased, albeit not much. Today, there is scope for USD to rise to 7.2630. The major resistance at 7.2800 is likely out of reach. The mild upward pressure is intact provided that 7.2370 is not breached (minor support is at 7.2440).”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After expecting a higher USD for more than a week, we indicated on Monday (18 Nov, spot at 7.2350) that ‘momentum is beginning to slow, and if USD breaks below 7.2000 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.’ USD traded in a relatively quiet manner of the past few days, and our view remains unchanged.”

The US Dollar (USD) could weaken further; any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Below 7.2000 USD is set to stop rising further

24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that ‘there has been a slight increase in momentum.’ We were of the view that USD ‘could decline further, but any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000.’ Our view did not turn out, as USD traded in a sideways range of 7.2250/7.2488, closing at 7.2331 (+0.10%). We continue to detect a soft underlying tone, and we continue to hold the view that USD could weaken. However, the strong support at 7.2000 is still likely out of reach (there is another support level at 7.2180). Resistance levels are at 7.2400 and 7.2490.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After expecting a higher USD for more than a week, we indicated on Monday (18 Nov, spot at 7.2350) that ‘momentum is beginning to slow, and if USD breaks below 7.2000 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.’ Our view remains unchanged.”

The US Dollar (USD) could weaken further; any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

A break below 7.2000 to stop USD gains

24-HOUR VIEW: “We held the view that USD ‘is likely to trade in a range of 7.2250/7.2500’ yesterday. USD then rose to 7.2529 before dropping sharply to a low of 7.2252. USD closed at 7.2260 (-0.23%). There has been a slight increase in momentum, and USD could weaken further. However, any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000 (there is another support level at 7.2180). On the upside, should USD break above 7.2460 (minor resistance is at 7.2390), it would mean that the current mild downward pressure has eased.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view for more than a week now. In our most recent narrative from last Wednesday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470), we pointed out that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ USD has not been able to make further headway since then, and momentum is beginning to slow. From here, if USD breaks below 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.2250/7.2500. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Momentum is beginning to slow

24-HOUR VIEW: “Following last Thursday’s rise to 7.2700, we indicated on Friday that ‘Given the severely overbought conditions, USD is unlikely to advance further.’ We were of view that USD ‘is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2350 and 7.2700.’ USD subsequently traded in a range of 7.2308/7.2555, closing slightly lower by 7.2429 (-0.13%). Further range trading still seems likely, even though the softened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 7.2250/7.2500.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470), wherein ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ USD has not been able to make further headway since then, and momentum is beginning to slow. From here, if USD breaks below 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2350 and 7.2700. In the longer run, the level to monitor now is 7.2800; the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The level to monitor for USD/CNH is 7.2800

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD traded in a range on Wednesday and then closed largely unchanged. Yesterday (Thursday), we pointed out that ‘Despite trading in a range, there has been a slight increase in momentum.’ We expected USD to edge higher, but we noted that ‘as momentum is not strong, any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600.’ Our view of a higher USD was correct, even though the advance surpassed 7.2600 (high has been 7.2700). Given the severely overbought conditions, USD is unlikely to advance further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2350 and 7.2700.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view since late last week. As we tracked the advance, we indicated two days ago (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470) that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ Yesterday, USD rose to a high of 7.2700. There is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the upward pressure has faded.”

For the second day in a row, CNY fix came in much stronger than expected. USD/CNH was last at 7.2596, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Bullish momentum on daily chart

“Policymakers attempt to convey a message that recent spot USD/CNH move is close to testing policymakers' threshold of tolerance for CNH weakness.

“On one hand, the strong fix may serve as a deterrence against further weakening in RMB but on the other, trump trade momentum may mean that USD/CNH remains better bid on dips. Given a strong USD trend, policymakers can only slow pace of RMB depreciation at best.”

“For USD/CNH to reverse trend, the USD needs to ease. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near overbought conditions. Resistance at 7.2750 levels. Support at 7.22, 7.20 (200 DMA).”

USD is likely to edge higher; any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600. In the longer run, the level to monitor now is 7.2800; the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD rose sharply two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘The rapid rise is deep in overbought territory, but there is no sign of a pullback just yet.’ We added, ‘Overall, it appears that USD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 7.2200 and 7.2500.’ Although USD then traded in a wider range of 7.2137/7.2490, it closed largely unchanged at 7.2415 (-0.03%). Despite trading in a range, there has been a slight increase in momentum. Today, USD could edge higher, but as momentum is not strong, any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600. The major resistance at 7.2800 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 7.2330, followed by 7.2150.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view since late last week. As we tracked the advance, we indicated yesterday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470) that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ There is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the upward pressure has faded.”

USD/CNH traded higher but eased post CNY fix. Pair was last at 7.2236, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bullish momentum on daily chart intact

“CNY fix came in much stronger than expected this morning – ‘conveys’ a message that recent spot USD/CNH move may be coming close to testing policymakers' threshold of tolerance for CNH weakness. On one hand, it may serve as a deterrence against further weakening in RMB but on the other, trump trade momentum may mean that USD/CNH remains better bid on dips.”

“Given a strong USD trend, policymakers can only slow pace of RMB depreciation at best. For USD/CNH to reverse trend, the USD needs to ease.”

“Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near overbought conditions. Resistance at 7.25, 7.2750 levels. Support at 7.22, 7.20 (200 DMA).”