CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Chinese Renminbi Yuan (USDCNH)

The US Dollar (USD) could weaken further; any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Below 7.2000 USD is set to stop rising further

24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that ‘there has been a slight increase in momentum.’ We were of the view that USD ‘could decline further, but any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000.’ Our view did not turn out, as USD traded in a sideways range of 7.2250/7.2488, closing at 7.2331 (+0.10%). We continue to detect a soft underlying tone, and we continue to hold the view that USD could weaken. However, the strong support at 7.2000 is still likely out of reach (there is another support level at 7.2180). Resistance levels are at 7.2400 and 7.2490.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “After expecting a higher USD for more than a week, we indicated on Monday (18 Nov, spot at 7.2350) that ‘momentum is beginning to slow, and if USD breaks below 7.2000 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.’ Our view remains unchanged.”

The US Dollar (USD) could weaken further; any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

A break below 7.2000 to stop USD gains

24-HOUR VIEW: “We held the view that USD ‘is likely to trade in a range of 7.2250/7.2500’ yesterday. USD then rose to 7.2529 before dropping sharply to a low of 7.2252. USD closed at 7.2260 (-0.23%). There has been a slight increase in momentum, and USD could weaken further. However, any decline is unlikely to reach the strong support at 7.2000 (there is another support level at 7.2180). On the upside, should USD break above 7.2460 (minor resistance is at 7.2390), it would mean that the current mild downward pressure has eased.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view for more than a week now. In our most recent narrative from last Wednesday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470), we pointed out that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ USD has not been able to make further headway since then, and momentum is beginning to slow. From here, if USD breaks below 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.2250/7.2500. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Momentum is beginning to slow

24-HOUR VIEW: “Following last Thursday’s rise to 7.2700, we indicated on Friday that ‘Given the severely overbought conditions, USD is unlikely to advance further.’ We were of view that USD ‘is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2350 and 7.2700.’ USD subsequently traded in a range of 7.2308/7.2555, closing slightly lower by 7.2429 (-0.13%). Further range trading still seems likely, even though the softened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 7.2250/7.2500.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470), wherein ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ USD has not been able to make further headway since then, and momentum is beginning to slow. From here, if USD breaks below 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2350 and 7.2700. In the longer run, the level to monitor now is 7.2800; the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The level to monitor for USD/CNH is 7.2800

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD traded in a range on Wednesday and then closed largely unchanged. Yesterday (Thursday), we pointed out that ‘Despite trading in a range, there has been a slight increase in momentum.’ We expected USD to edge higher, but we noted that ‘as momentum is not strong, any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600.’ Our view of a higher USD was correct, even though the advance surpassed 7.2600 (high has been 7.2700). Given the severely overbought conditions, USD is unlikely to advance further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2350 and 7.2700.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view since late last week. As we tracked the advance, we indicated two days ago (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470) that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ Yesterday, USD rose to a high of 7.2700. There is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the upward pressure has faded.”

For the second day in a row, CNY fix came in much stronger than expected. USD/CNH was last at 7.2596, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Bullish momentum on daily chart

“Policymakers attempt to convey a message that recent spot USD/CNH move is close to testing policymakers' threshold of tolerance for CNH weakness.

“On one hand, the strong fix may serve as a deterrence against further weakening in RMB but on the other, trump trade momentum may mean that USD/CNH remains better bid on dips. Given a strong USD trend, policymakers can only slow pace of RMB depreciation at best.”

“For USD/CNH to reverse trend, the USD needs to ease. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near overbought conditions. Resistance at 7.2750 levels. Support at 7.22, 7.20 (200 DMA).”

USD is likely to edge higher; any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600. In the longer run, the level to monitor now is 7.2800; the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD rose sharply two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘The rapid rise is deep in overbought territory, but there is no sign of a pullback just yet.’ We added, ‘Overall, it appears that USD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 7.2200 and 7.2500.’ Although USD then traded in a wider range of 7.2137/7.2490, it closed largely unchanged at 7.2415 (-0.03%). Despite trading in a range, there has been a slight increase in momentum. Today, USD could edge higher, but as momentum is not strong, any advance is unlikely to break above 7.2600. The major resistance at 7.2800 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 7.2330, followed by 7.2150.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view since late last week. As we tracked the advance, we indicated yesterday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470) that ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ There is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the upward pressure has faded.”

USD/CNH traded higher but eased post CNY fix. Pair was last at 7.2236, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Bullish momentum on daily chart intact

“CNY fix came in much stronger than expected this morning – ‘conveys’ a message that recent spot USD/CNH move may be coming close to testing policymakers' threshold of tolerance for CNH weakness. On one hand, it may serve as a deterrence against further weakening in RMB but on the other, trump trade momentum may mean that USD/CNH remains better bid on dips.”

“Given a strong USD trend, policymakers can only slow pace of RMB depreciation at best. For USD/CNH to reverse trend, the USD needs to ease.”

“Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near overbought conditions. Resistance at 7.25, 7.2750 levels. Support at 7.22, 7.20 (200 DMA).”

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.2200 and 7.2500. In the longer run, the level to monitor now is 7.2800; the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD/CNH can try to break and stay below 7.2200  

24-HOUR VIEW: “The following are the excerpts from our update yesterday, when USD was at 7.2240: ‘There has been a tentative slowdown in momentum. However, provided that USD remains above 7.2000 (minor support is at 7.2090), it could edge higher, and possibly test the major resistance at 7.2400 before a more sizeable and sustained pullback is likely.’ While our view of a stronger USD was correct, we underestimated its strength, as it soared to 7.2559 before easing off to 7.2440 (+0.23%). The rapid rise is deep in overbought territory, but there is no sign of a pullback just yet. Overall, it appears that USD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 7.2200 and 7.2500.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned positive in USD last Thursday (07 Nov, spot at 7.2020), indicating that ‘The level to watch on the upside is 7.2400.’ Yesterday (12 Nov, spot at 7.2240), we indicated the following: ‘To continue to rise in a sustained manner, USD must break clearly above 7.2400. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 7.2400 will increase in the next few days, provided that 7.1720 (‘strong support’ previously at 7.1400) is not breached. Looking ahead, the next level to monitor above 7.2400 is 7.2800.’ USD subsequently soared to 7.2559. As indicated, the level to monitor now is 7.2800. Looking ahead, the next resistance above 7.2800 is 7.3115. The ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 7.2000 from 7.1720.”

Surge in momentum suggests further US Dollar (USD) strength, but the pace and extent is likely to be more moderate. The level to watch is 7.2400, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD to reach 7.2400 near term

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for USD to rise above 7.2200 yesterday did not turn. After reaching a high of 7.2133, it staged an unexpectedly sharp drop, reaching a low of 7.1420. The decline appears to be excessive, and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a range between 7.1350 and 7.1770.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “USD soared by 1.48% two days ago, closing at 7.2040. Yesterday (07 Nov, spot at 7.2020), we indicated that ‘The surge in momentum suggests further USD strength, but severely overbought conditions suggest the pace and extent is likely to be more moderate.’ We indicated that ‘The level to watch on the upside is 7.2400,’ and ‘should USD breach 7.1300, it would indicate that the rally is ready to take a breather.’ We did not anticipate the sharp pullback that reached a low of 7.1420. Although momentum has slowed, we will continue to hold the same view as long as 7.1300 is not breached.

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1350 and 7.1770. In the longer run, surge in momentum suggests further USD strength, but the pace and extent is likely to be more moderate, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD to trade in a range between 7.1350 and 7.1770

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for USD to rise above 7.2200 yesterday did not turn. After reaching a high of 7.2133, it staged an unexpectedly sharp drop, reaching a low of 7.1420. The decline appears to be excessive, and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a range between 7.1350 and 7.1770.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “The level to watch is 7.2400. USD soared by 1.48% two days ago, closing at 7.2040. Yesterday (07 Nov, spot at 7.2020), we indicated that ‘The surge in momentum suggests further USD strength, but severely overbought conditions suggest the pace and extent is likely to be more moderate.’ We indicated that ‘The level to watch on the upside is 7.2400,’ and ‘should USD breach 7.1300, it would indicate that the rally is ready to take a breather.’ We did not anticipate the sharp pullback that reached a low of 7.1420. Although momentum has slowed, we will continue to hold the same view as long as 7.1300 is not breached.”

The US Dollar (USD) could rise above 7.2200; the next resistance at 7.2400 is unlikely to come into view. In the longer run, surge in momentum suggests further USD strength, but the pace and extent is likely to be more moderate. The level to watch is 7.2400, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The level to watch on the upside is 7.2400

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated that despite USD surging in early Asian trade yesterday, ‘the impulsive advance could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off.’ However, USD surged further to 7.2095, closing on a strong note at 7.2040 (+1.48%). Not surprisingly, conditions are severely overbought. However, USD could rise above 7.2200. The next resistance at 7.2400 is unlikely to come into view. To maintain the momentum, USD must not break below 7.1600 (minor support is at 7.1800).”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (05 Nov, spot at 7.1340), we revised our negative view to neutral, indicating that ‘downward momentum has largely faded.’ We also indicate that USD ‘could trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range.’ We clearly did not anticipate USD to lift off and skyrocketed to 7.2095. The surge in momentum suggests further USD strength, but severely overbought conditions suggest the pace and extent is likely to be more moderate. The level to watch on the upside is 7.2400. On the downside, should USD breach 7.1300, it would indicate that the rally is ready to take a breather.”

Impulsive advance in early Asian trade could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; USD could trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes.

USD to trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “On Monday, USD plunged to 7.0876 and then rebounded. Yesterday, we pointed out that ‘The rebound in oversold conditions suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.1000 and 7.1250.’ USD then traded in a 7.0990/7.1169 range. In a sudden move in early Asian trade today, it surged. The impulsive advance could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off. The major resistance at 7.1800 is unlikely to come into view. Support levels are at 7.1200 and 7.1000.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in USD last Friday (01 Nov, spot at 7.1250). We indicated USD ‘could edge lower, but any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 7.1000.’ After USD plummeted below 7.1000, we highlighted yesterday that ‘The increasing downward momentum, combined with the breach of 7.1000, suggests USD is likely to decline further, potentially to 7.0660.’ In a sudden move early today, USD jumped. While our ‘strong resistance’ level at 7.1380 has not been breached yet, downward momentum has largely faded. The outlook is mixed from here, and USD could trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range for now.”

Instead of continuing to weaken, the US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1000 and 7.1250. In the longer run, increasing momentum and breach of 7.1000 support level suggests USD is likely to decline further, potentially to 7.0660, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD is likely to decline further

24-HOUR VIEW: “After USD gapped lower in early Sydney trade yesterday, we indicated that ‘The sharp drop appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is room for USD to drop further to 7.1000 before stabilisation is likely.’ We did not expect USD to easily break below 7.1000 and plummet to a low of 7.0876. USD rebounded from the low, closing lower by 0.41% at 7.1103. The rebound in oversold conditions suggests that instead of continuing to weaken, USD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 7.1000 and 7.1250.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Friday (01 Nov, spot at 7.1650), we noted that USD ‘is under mild downward pressure.’ We indicated that it ‘it could edge lower, but any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 7.1000.’ In a sudden move yesterday, USD broke below 7.1000, reaching a low of 7.0876. USD closed lower by -0.41% at 7.1103, its biggest one-day drop in six weeks. The increasing downward momentum, combined with the breach of 7.1000, suggests USD is likely to decline further, potentially to 7.0660. To keep the momentum going, USD must remain below 7.1380 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 7.1480).”

USD could drift lower, but any decline is likely part of a lower trading range of 7.1150/7.1400. In the longer run, USD is under mild downward pressure; it could edge lower, but any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 7.1000, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is under mild downward pressure

24-HOUR VIEW: “USD traded between 7.1200 and 7.1350 yesterday, closing largely unchanged at 7.1210 (-0.05%). Despite the quiet price movements, the underlying tone appears to be soft. Today, USD could drift lower, but any decline is likely part of a lower trading range of 7.1150/7.1400. In other words, USD is unlikely to break clearly below 7.1150 or above 7.1400.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from Monday (28 Oct, spot at 7.1460), we highlighted that ‘While upward momentum is building, USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely.’ We added, ‘The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 7.1600 will remain intact, provided that 7.1200 is not breached in the next few days.’ USD subsequently rose to 7.1650 before pulling back quickly. Yesterday, it dropped to a low of 7.1200. The buildup in upward momentum has faded, and downward momentum has increased slightly. From here, USD could edge lower, but any decline is expected to encounter solid support at 7.1000. On the upside, a breach of 7.1480 would mean that the current mild downward pressure has eased.”

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.1300 and 7.1550. In the longer run, upward momentum is building, but USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD must break and remain above 7.1600 for further gains

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to rise yesterday, but we were of the view that ‘the 7.1600 level is likely out of reach.’ While USD rose more than expected to 7.1650, it pulled back quickly to close largely unchanged (7.1420, -0.06%). The brief rise did not result in any increase in momentum. Today, we expect USD to trade in range, likely between 7.1300 and 7.1550.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (28 Oct, spot at 7.1460), we highlighted that ‘While upward momentum is building, USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely.’ We added, ‘The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 7.1600 will remain intact, provided that 7.1200 is not breached in the next few days.’ Yesterday, USD rose to 7.1650 before pulling back quickly. There is no increase in momentum, and we continue to hold the same view for now.”

Room for USD to rise; the 7.1600 level is likely out of reach. In the longer run, upward momentum is building, but USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD/CNH looks to test 7.1600

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that ‘The increasing momentum suggest USD is likely to rise further, potentially reaching 7.1600.’ However, USD rose less than expected, pulling back from 7.1500. Despite pulling back, the underlying tone appears firm. Today, we continue to see room for USD to rise, even though the 7.1600 level is likely out of reach. On the downside, support levels are at 7.1375 and 7.1300.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (28 Oct, spot at 7.1460) remains valid. As highlighted, ‘While upward momentum is building, USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely.’ The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 7.1600 will remain intact, provided that 7.1200 is not breached in the next few days.”

Increasing momentum suggests the US Dollar (USD) is likely to rise further, potentially reaching 7.1600. In the longer run, upward momentum is building, but USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

USD has to break above 7.1600 to stay afloat

24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, we expected USD to trade in a range between 7.1120 and 7.1380. USD subsequently traded in a 7.1232/7.1375 range, closing at 7.1346 (+0.15%). In early Asian trade today, USD rose sharply. The increasing momentum suggest USD is likely to rise further, potentially reaching 7.1600. To maintain the buildup in momentum, USD must remain above 7.1300 with minor support at 7.1375.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We shifted to a neutral stance last Friday (25 Oct, spot at 7.1250), indicating that ‘upward momentum has largely faded, and USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.0800 and 7.1500.’ USD then closed at 7.1346 but it rose sharply in Asian trade today. While upward momentum is building, USD must break and remain above 7.1600 before further sustained gains are likely. The likelihood of USD breaking clearly above 7.1600 will remain intact, provided that 7.1200 is not breached in the next few days.”

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.1180 and 7.1440. Momentum is slowing; a breach of 7.0900 would indicate that USD is more likely to trade in a range instead of strengthening further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes.

USD/CNH can reach 7.1440 short term

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for USD to ‘rise to 7.1500’ did not materialise, as it pulled back from a high of 7.1462, closing largely unchanged at 7.1350 (- 0.02%). The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 7.1180 and 7.1440.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from Monday (21 Oct, spot at 7.1170) remains valid. As highlighted, the recent buildup in momentum is slowing, and a breach of 7.0900 would indicate that USD is more likely to trade in a range instead of strengthening further. Looking ahead, USD has to break and remain above 7.1500 before an advance to 7.1600 can be expected.”

The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range between 7.1180 and 7.1440. In the longer run, momentum is slowing; a breach of 7.0900 would indicate that USD is more likely to trade in a range instead of strengthening further, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.  

USD/CNH momentum is slowing

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for USD to ‘rise to 7.1500’ did not materialise, as it pulled back from a high of 7.1462, closing largely unchanged at 7.1350 (- 0.02%). The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 7.1180 and 7.1440.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from Monday (21 Oct, spot at 7.1170) remains valid. As highlighted, the recent buildup in momentum is slowing, and a breach of 7.0900 would indicate that USD is more likely to trade in a range instead of strengthening further. Looking ahead, USD has to break and remain above 7.1500 before an advance to 7.1600 can be expected.”