CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

• USD/CHF keeps rising on US Dollar strength
• It is close to meeting resistance from the 200-day SMA.

USD/CHF extends its short and medium-term uptrend and rises up to within spitting distance of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

USD/CHF Daily Chart 

It will probably encounter tough resistance at the 200 SMA which could pullback as a result. 

Given the technical analysis theory that “the trend is your friend”, however, it is likely to eventually resume its uptrend. 

A decisive break above the 200 SMA at 0.8818 would probably result in a continuation up to the next target at 0.8873 (July 30 swing high).  

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is not yet overbought suggesting the pair has more upside potential before it gets overextended. 

• USD/CHF climbs to near 0.8770 in Monday’s early European session. 
• The victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections provides some support to the USD. 
• SNB’s Martin said the central bank had made "absolutely no commitment" to its future course of action. 

The USD/CHF pair extends its upside to around 0.8770, the highest since August 1 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The upward movement of the pair is bolstered by the strength of the US Dollar (USD) as traders await the US inflation data and Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers this week. 

Analysts expect that Trump's policies would put upward pressure on US inflation and bond yields while slowing the Fed’s path to ease policy. This, in turn, lifts the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF). "Given this, we still expect that the Fed will cut another 25bp at the December meeting, but thereafter will only cut once per quarter, in contrast to our previous forecast for a 25bp cut every meeting," said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli.

Traders will take more cues from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is due on Wednesday. The headline CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.6% YoY in October, while the core CPI is estimated to show a rise of 3.3% YoY during the same period. In case of the hotter-than-expected outcome, this could further reduce the possibility of a December rate reduction, supporting the USD. 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman Antoine Martin said on Monday that the central bank is not locked into more interest rate cuts in December, adding that everything will depend on conditions when we assess the situation in December. The markets anticipate the SNB to cut at least 25 basis points (bps) from the current 1% level at its next meeting on December 12.

• USD/CHF gains ground to near 0.8730 in Friday’s early European session. 
• The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter point at the November meeting on Thursday. 
• The safe-haven flows could underpin the Swiss Franc. 

The USD/CHF pair drifts higher to around 0.8730 during the early European session on Friday. The renewed Greenback demand provides some support to the pair. Traders brace for the advanced US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for November and the speech from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Michelle Bowman later on Friday.

The US Fed on Thursday decided to cut its borrowing costs by 0.25 basis points (bps),  half the size of its September reduction, bringing down the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% from its current 4.75% to 5% level. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference that the "economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals over the past two years.”

Fed’s Powell emphasized that the Fed doesn't want to move too quickly on the interest rate nor move too slowly and do unnecessary damage to the labor market. The Fed will continue assessing data to determine the "pace and destination" of interest rates. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers as investors expect Trump's policies would spur economic growth and inflation and reduce the pace of interest rate cuts.

On the other hand, the uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). President-elect Donald Trump's comeback victory on Tuesday undermines diplomatic attempts to stop Israel's multifront conflicts in the near term and calls into question US long-term support for Israel’s military campaigns against Iran and its proxies.

• USD/CHF might be developing a Bull Flag continuation pattern. 
• This suggests there will be an extension of the uptrend to upside targets higher. 

USD/CHF – which looked as if it might be reversing trend and starting a new short-term downtrend at the start of the week – suddenly turned on a dime and spiked higher on Wednesday. 

The pair rallied to a higher high, giving the established uptrend a shot in the arm. USD/CHF has since peaked and started to go sideways, forming what looks like a potential Bull Flag continuation price pattern.

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

If it is indeed a Bull Flag pattern it indicates more upside is on the cards for USD/CHF. 

A break above the flag’s high of 0.8775 would probably result in a continuation higher to a target at 0.8832, the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the  flagpole or “Pole” higher. The flagpole is the steep rally prior to the consolidation. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is not yet overbought but it is close. This suggests there is still more scope for upside before the uptrend becomes temporarily exhausted. If RSI enters the overbought zone it will be a signal for long-holders not to add to their positions. 

• USD/CHF weakens to around 0.8750 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• Investors brace for the US Fed rate decision on Thursday. 
• The safe-haven demand could lift the Swiss Franc against the Greenback. 

The USD/CHF pair softens to near 0.8750 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Traders might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Thursday. 

The downside for the US Dollar (USD) might be limited as traders expect a Donald Trump presidency will push up inflation and reduce the pace of interest rate cuts. However, the markets might turn cautious later in the day ahead of the US Fed monetary meeting. The US central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in nearly a 98% possibility of a quarter-point reduction and near 70% odds of a similar-sized move in December. 

On the Swiss front, data released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Tuesday showed that the seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate in Switzerland arrived at 2.6% in October. The figure remained unchanged compared to September. 

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said last week that the central bank could further cut interest rates to maintain price stability in the mid-term. Markets currently have priced in 72% odds for a 25 bps and a 28% chance for a 50 bps reduction in the December meeting.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty about the global economic outlook and the ongoing geopolitical risks might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). As the Middle East teeters on the verge of war, with Iran threatening to react to an Israeli attack on its territory earlier this month, there are worries that Trump's win could enable Netanyahu to hit Iran's nuclear facilities, something the Biden administration has cautioned against, per CNN. 

• USD/CHF holds onto intraday gains near 0.8750 on US Trump’s victory.
• Market participants are expected to face higher import tariffs in Trump’s administration.
• The Swiss Franc pair rallies after breaking above 38.2% Fibo retracement at 0.8700.

The USD/CHF pair rallies to near 0.8750 in Wednesday’s European session. The Swiss Franc pair surges to a fresh three-month high as the US Dollar (USD) soars with former President Donald Trump gaining an unconquered lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris in the United States (US) presidential elections.

The US Dollar is one of the major beneficiaries of Trump’s victory as he is expected to implement protectionist policies after taking the Senate in a way to boost domestic investment. Trump vowed to raise import tariffs by 10% and lower corporate taxes if he comes into power.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders some of its intraday gains but is still 1.30% higher, around 104.80, at the time of writing.

Going forward, investors will focus on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Thursday. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75%.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains on the back foot against the US Dollar for more than a month as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to cut interest rates again in the last monetary policy meeting of this year in December.

USD/CHF delivers a sharp rally after breaking above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 0.8700. The tool is plotted from May’s high of 0.9225 to September 6 low of 0.8375. The Swiss Franc pair bounced back sharply after gaining ground near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.8617 and has rallied to near the 200-day, which hovers around 0.8750.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00, suggesting a fresh bullish momentum in sight.

More upside looks likely towards the round-level resistance of 0.8800 and the July 25 high of 0.8850 after sustaining above the 200-day EMA.

On the flip side, a downside move below the 50-day EMA near 0.8617 will push the asset lower to a 23.6% Fibo retracement level near 0.8570, followed by the psychological support of 0.8500.

USD/CHF daily chart

• USD/CHF jumps to a three-month peak on Wednesday amid broad-based USD strength.
• The Trump trade, smaller Fed rate cut bets and surging US bond yields benefit the buck.
• The risk-on mood undermines the safe-haven CHF and further lends support to the pair.

The USD/CHF pair catches aggressive bids on Wednesday and spikes to its highest level since early August, around the 0.8755 region during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips in the last hour and currently trade just above the 0.8700 mark, still up 0.90% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthens across the board and spikes to over a four-month peak in reaction to initial US election exit polls, which indicated an early lead for former President Donald Trump in key swing states. Meanwhile, the Trump optimism triggers a fresh wave of risk-on trade across the global equity markets and undermines the safe-haven Swiss Franc, which, in turn, provides an additional boost to the USD/CHF pair. 

Meanwhile, speculations that a Republican sweep could see the launch of Trump's potentially inflation-generating tariffs, along with deficit-spending concerns and bets for a less aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), continue to push the US bond yields higher. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond surges over 15 points at 4.44%, hitting its highest level since July 2 and favors the USD bulls. 

That said, expectations for a further spike in volatility across the financial markets act as a headwind for the buck and hold back traders from positioning for any further appreciating move for the USD/CHF pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside. Hence, any subsequent decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.

• USD/CHF is showing increasing evidence it might be reversing trend. 
• It has formed a bearish Two-Bar reversal pattern and has broken the uptrend’s trendline three times. 

USD/CHF looks like it is reversing the uptrend of the last five weeks. The technical evidence is building for the case the pair is beginning a new short-term downtrend. 

USD/CHF Daily Chart 

USD/CHF has formed a bearish Two-Bar reversal pattern (red-border rectangle on chart above) on Monday and Friday. These patterns occur at the end of an uptrend when a longer-than-average long, green candle is followed by a similar length and shape bearish red candle. The pattern indicates a reversal in sentiment. It usually denotes near-term weakness at the very least, more often than not a reversal of trend.

Further the trendline for the rally during October has been broken and redrawn three times (see 4-hour chart below for more detail) and this is another sign of a possible reversal according to technical analysis theory. 

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart

A break below the 0.8615 November 4 low would provide final confirmation of more downside to come and probable establishment of a downtrending bias. Such a break might reach the next target at around 0.8550 where the 50-day Simple Moving Average is located. 

• USD/CHF remains steady due to market caution amid increased uncertainty surrounding the US election results.
• Improved US Treasury yields could have provided support for the US Dollar.
• The continued slowdown in Swiss inflation has increased the likelihood of a bumper SNB rate cut in December.

USD/CHF holds ground after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 0.8640 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) remains steady as traders adopt market caution amid increased uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Additionally, improved US Treasury yields also provide support for the Greenback.

The opinion polls indicate that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are nearly tied. The outcome may remain unknown for several days following Tuesday’s vote. Both Trump and Harris expressed confidence in their chances as they campaigned across Pennsylvania on the last frantic day of this exceptionally close presidential race.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 103.90 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.16% and 4.29%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) may encounter difficulties as the likelihood of significant rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) increases. This shift is driven by a continued slowdown in inflation in Switzerland, evidenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which declined by 0.6% year-over-year in October. This CPI figure was notably below the SNB’s inflation forecast of 1% for the fourth quarter, raising the chances that the SNB could implement a more substantial rate cut in December to keep inflation within its target range of 0-2%.

• USD/CHF depreciates as the US Dollar loses ground amid lower Treasury yields.
• The recent poll indicated that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are locked in a close contest across seven battleground states.
• The 10-year Swiss bond yield falls toward 0.38% due to rising expectations of more aggressive rate cuts by the SNB.

USD/CHF retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.8650 during the European session on Monday. The US Dollar faces downward pressure as subdued Treasury yields follow Friday's weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trading around 103.80 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.17% and 4.31%, respectively, at the time of writing.

On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that October’s Nonfarm Payrolls increased by only 12,000, following a revised September gain of 223,000 (down from 254,000), which fell well short of market expectations of 113,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1% in October, matching the consensus forecast.

Traders are closely watching the upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday, as the final New York Times/Siena College poll showed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump are locked in a close contest across seven battleground states on Sunday. The focus will shift to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision, with expectations of a modest 25 basis point rate cut later this week.

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond dropped toward 0.38%, its lowest level since early October, as expectations grew for more substantial rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). This shift follows a continued slowdown in Switzerland's inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling 0.6% year-over-year in October, below the 0.8% forecast and marking the slowest rate of increase since July 2021.

Swiss inflation has not risen since April, and October's figure came in well below the SNB’s fourth-quarter inflation forecast of 1%. This raises the likelihood that the SNB may consider a larger rate cut in December to keep inflation within its target range of 0-2%, signaling concerns over potential economic softening.

• USD/CHF sees more upside above 0.8700 as soft Swiss inflation boosts SNB dovish bets.
• Annual Swiss CPI grew at a softer pace of 0.6% against 0.8% in September.
• Investors await the US NFP data for fresh interest rate guidance.

The USD/CHF pair strives to break above the key resistance of 0.8700 in Friday’s European session. The pair strengthens as the Swiss Franc (CHF) weakens after the release of the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that price pressures soften further in October.

Year-on-year Swiss CPI decelerated at a faster pace to 0.6% against the estimates and the prior release of 0.8%. On month, Swiss inflation deflated by 0.1%, slower than 0.3% in September but was expected to remain flat.

A sharp disinflation trend has prompted expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB has already reduced its key borrowing rates by 75 basis points (bps) to 1% this year, and a further slowdown in inflationary pressures points to the need for more cuts in the December meeting.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc pair is also performing better due to the upbeat US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back above 104.00 ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which will be published at 12:30.

Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment data as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been more worried about easing labor market conditions, with high confidence in the disinflation trend towards the bank’s target of 2%.

Economists expect the economy to have added 113K workers, which is less than half of the job additions at 254K recorded in September. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

• USD/CHF trades stronger to around 0.8640 in Friday’s early European session. 
• Investors will closely monitor the US October employment report on Friday. 
• The risk-off sentiment could boost the CHF, a safe-haven currency. 

The USD/CHF pair gathers strength to near 0.8640 during the early European session on Friday. The rebound of the US Dollar (USD) underpins the major pair ahead of the release of the US employment report, which is due later on Friday.

The US economic data have surprised on the upside over the last two months, indicating that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) ought to be patient with its easing policy in its next meetings. Financial markets have priced in about a 90% possibility that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) next week, a reduction from the 50 basis points in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

Nonetheless, the US central bank may take the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday into consideration about the pace and size of rate reductions in November. The US economy is estimated to added 113K job additions in October, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1% during the same period. 

Substantial job market cooling could prompt the Fed to react with more aggressive cuts, weighing on the USD. However, some labor weakness may be attributed to temporary distortions from Hurricane Helene. 

On the Swiss front, the risk-off mood amid the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election next week and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). Authorities say two separate Hezbollah rocket attacks killed seven people in northern Israel, making it the worst day of such strikes in months, per the BBC. 

• USD/CHF trades in negative territory for the second consecutive day near 0.8655 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• Global political uncertainty and geopolitical risks boost the Swiss Franc, a traditional safe-haven asset. 
• Investors await the US PCE inflation data for more cues on the Fed's policy path.

The USD/CHF pair drifts lower to around 0.8655 during the early European session on Thursday. Persistent safe-haven flows amid the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election on November 5 and Middle East tensions continue to support the Swiss Franc (CHF). 

The US economic data continues to suggest that the US economy remains strong and supports prospects for less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, might cap the downside for the Greenback in the near term. Markets are pricing in about 96% odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Traders will keep an eye on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is due later on Thursday. On Friday, the US employment data will take center stage, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. 

The race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remains close ahead of the November 5 US presidential election. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainty related to the outcome of the US election could lift the CHF and act as a headwind for USD/CHF for the time being.

• USD/CHF may appreciate further as US Treasury yields advance.
• The US Dollar receives support amid prevailing uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election.
• The safe-haven CHF may face challenges due to easing concerns over a potential all-out war in the Middle East.

USD/CHF steadies with a bias of extending gains for the second consecutive day amid higher US Dollar (USD) and improved Treasury yields. The pair trades around 0.8670 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and October's ADP Employment Change are set to be released later in the North American session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six other major currencies, trades around 104.30 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.09% and 4.24%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Regarding the US presidential election, a three-day poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, which concluded on Sunday and was released on Tuesday, indicated that the race is essentially tied as the November 5 election approaches. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has seen her lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump narrow to just one percentage point, with 44% support compared to Trump's 43%.

The demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) may decline due to easing concerns over a potential all-out war in the Middle East. An Axios reporter posted on X that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would soon meet with several ministers and military and intelligence leaders to discuss a diplomatic resolution to the war in Lebanon, per Reuters.

Traders are expected to monitor the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and the Real Retail Sales for September, both set to be released on Friday. These data points could provide insights into the economic conditions in Switzerland.

• USD/CHF may appreciate further due to a stronger US Dollar amid higher Treasury yields.
• The US Dollar also receives support from the market caution ahead of the US presidential election.
• The safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc is undermined due to easing all-out war fear in the Middle East.

USD/CHF remains subdued following the losses from the previous session, hovering around 0.8650 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. This downside of the pair could be limited due to solid US Dollar (USD) amid higher Treasury yields.

The US Dollar gains support due to market caution ahead of the upcoming US election in November. Market sentiment increasingly favors Former President Donald Trump. According to polling site FiveThirtyEight, Trump's possibility of winning the US election has increased to 52% compared to 48% for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major currencies, trades around 104.30 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.12% and 4.27%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) faced challenges due to rising expectations for another interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at its upcoming December meeting. Traders are likely to monitor the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, which is scheduled for release later this week.

Moreover, the demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe haven may decline as concerns over a potential all-out war in the Middle East have eased with the reduction in military operations. However, according to Reuters, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, has suggested the possibility of employing "all available tools" to respond to Israel’s recent attacks on military targets within Iran.

• USD/CHF has opened a Runaway Gap higher at the open, suggesting the uptrend will continue.
• Volume is low, reducing the chances that the gap represents a point of exhaustion. 

USD/CHF opened a gap higher at the open on Monday (see chart below) and then promptly fell back down. It has since closed the gap. 

Despite the speed of the decline following the gap higher, the short and medium term trend is still probably bullish, which given the old saying that “the trend is your friend” is likely to continue. 

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

The gap is probably what would be classified as a “Runaway Gap”. These happen during strong rallies. 

The lack of volume accompanying this gap (yellow rectangle on volume) indicates this is probably not an Exhaustion Gap which comes at the end of the trend. Price is, therefore, likely to continue rising.

A break above the 0.8700 level (October 28 high) would confirm a further extension to the 0.8750 resistance level (August 15 high). 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is still not in overbought territory (above 70) suggesting the pair has room for more upside.

• USD/CHF falls back from 0.8700, following the US Dollar’s retreat.
• This week, the US Dollar will be guided by a slew of US economic data.
• Swiss Franc bulls will strengthen after a Bullish Flag breakout.

The USD/CHF pair falls sharply after testing the round-level resistance of 0.8700 in Monday’s European session, the highest level seen in more than two months. The Swiss Franc pair traced the US Dollar’s (USD) move, which retreated after revisiting an almost three-month high, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling from 104.60.

The US Dollar struggles to extend its upside move as investors turn cautious with an array of United States (US) economic data in the pipeline. This week, market participants will focus on the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for September, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for October, which will influence market speculation for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate path.

Signs of significant job demand and economic growth will weaken the Fed dovish bets for the December meeting as traders have priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in November. On the contrary, soft numbers would do the opposite. Meanwhile, a majority of Fed officials are confident that the disinflation trend is intact towards the bank’s target of 2%.

In the Swiss region, market participants expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to continue reducing interest rates further as inflationary pressures remain within striking distance of 2% for a longer period.

USD/CHF forms a Bullish Flag chart pattern on a daily timeframe. The above-mentioned pattern reflects an inventory adjustment process that follows the ongoing trend after the completion, which in this case is up.

Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.8613, suggests a strong uptrend.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong upside momentum.

More upside would appear if the Swiss Franc pair breaks above the intraday high of 0.8700. A breakout move will drive the asset towards the August 15 high of 0.8750 and the July 25 low of 0.8777.

In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the September 12 low of 0.8550 will drag the asset toward the psychological support of 0.8500, followed by the October 2 low of 0.8450.

USD/CHF daily chart

• USD/CHF extends its gains as recent US data fade the likelihood of a bumper rate cut by the Fed.
• Former President Donald Trump’s allies have faced at least 10 court defeats that could impact the outcome of the election.
• The Swiss Franc could experience a decrease in safe-haven demand due to the easing tensions in the Middle East.

USD/CHF continues to gain ground as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens as recent positive economic data from the United States (US) has fueled expectations for a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The USD/CHF pair reaches two-month highs around 0.8700 during the Asian hours on Monday.

On Friday, data showed that the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 70.5 in October, up from 68.9 previously, surpassing the expected forecast of 69.0. In addition, Durable Goods Orders fell by 0.8% month-over-month in September, which was a smaller decline than the anticipated 1.0% drop.

The US Dollar receives support from the higher Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 104.50 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.12% and 4.27%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Regarding US presidential election, Over the past three weeks, allies of former President Donald Trump have faced at least 10 court defeats in key battleground states that could impact the outcome of the November 5 election between Republican candidate Trump and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) may encounter difficulties as expectations rise for another interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) at its upcoming December meeting. Traders are likely to keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, set to be released later this week.

Additionally, the Swiss Franc could experience a decrease in safe-haven demand due to the easing of geopolitical tensions following Israel's airstrikes on Iran early Saturday. These strikes, aimed at missile and air defense sites, were less aggressive than many had anticipated. Iran has downplayed the damage, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating that the attack "should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated."

• USD/CHF is charting a sideways course just beneath its September high and the 100-day SMA. 
• The pair is in a short-term uptrend, favoring a extension higher subject to a clear break above the SMA. 

USD/CHF flatlines in the 0.8660s after pausing in its run up from the late September lows. The pair is close to the (blue) 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently situated at 0.8691. 

USD/CHF Daily Chart 

The short and medium-term trends are bullish and given the principle that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor an extension higher. 

That said, USD/CHF has now reached the target generated by the breakout from the late August and September range at 0.8680. This suggests bullish pressure might wane. 

A break above the 100-day SMA and the 0.8700 level would confirm a further extension to the 0.8750 resistance level (August 15 high). 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is still not in overbought suggesting the pair has room for more upside.