CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

• USD/CHF gains 0.19% to 0.9126, retreating from three-week peak as trade negotiations show promise.
• Technical analysis suggests bullish trend with potential to target 0.9200 if support at 0.9100 holds.
• Downside risks loom if pair drops below 0.9100, with possible retracement to 0.8990 SMA level.

The USD/CHF trims some gains after reaching a three-week high of 0.9195. Risk appetite improves due to a delay in the US applying tariffs in Mexico, an indication that Washington is open to negotiating trade terms. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.9126, up 0.19%.

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF is in a correction mode on an intraday basis, but the overall trend is upward, as depicted in the daily chart. However, bulls need to keep prices above 0.9100 on a daily basis so they can challenge the 0.9200 figure in the near term.

Momentum favors further upside, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Therefore, if USD/CHF advances past 0.9200, the following key resistance would be the April 2024 high at 0.9224 before challenging 0.9300.

Nevertheless, if sellers push the USD/CHF exchange rate below 0.9100, this could pave the way for a pullback towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8990. A breach of the latter will expose a November 2024 swing low of 0.8956.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

• USD/CHF extends its upside to around 0.9165 in Monday’s early European session.
• USD strengthens on Trump's tariffs.
• Swiss Real Retail Sales rose by 2.6% YoY in December vs. 0.6% expected.

The USD/CHF pair extends the rally to near 0.9165 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) jumps after US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs kicked off a trade war.

The Greenback gains up to 0.60% against the Swiss franc (CHF), reaching a peak not seen since May 2024. The move comes after Trump put 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on Saturday, as well as a fresh 10% levy on Chinese products.

However, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources, that the Chinese government is preparing an opening bid to try to head off greater tariff increases and technology restrictions from the Trump administration, indicating that China is keen to begin trade discussions. Investors will closely monitor the development surrounding trade tariff policies. Any sign of a renewed trade war between the US and trading partners could boost the US Dollar against its rivals.

Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.6% YoY in December versus 2.4% in November. This figure came in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in December, matching November's reading and the estimation.

This US inflation report suggested that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would probably be in no hurry to resume cutting interest rates, supporting the USD. Investors pared expectations of rate reductions from the Fed, pricing in 54% odds of two cuts this year and 44% for just one in the wake of the tariff news.

On the Swiss front, the country’s Real Retail Sales rose by 2.6% YoY in December versus 1.4% (revised from 0.8%) prior, according to the Federal Statistical Office on Friday. This reading came in hotter than the 0.6% expected.

• USD/CHF posts modest gains to around 0.9100 in Friday’s early European session. 
• The US economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in Q4. 
• The safe-haven flows could support the Swiss Franc. 

The USD/CHF pair trades with mild gains to near 0.9100 during the early European session on Friday. The hawkish hold from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) provides some support to the US Dollar (USD). Investors will take more cues from the US December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which is due later on Friday. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is set to speak. 

The US central bank left interest rates unchanged Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference that the US economy remains strong, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. Therefore, the central bank doesn’t need to be in a hurry to adjust its policy stance. Following the January Fed meeting, the markets see less than a 50% odds that the Fed will cut rates before its June meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. This, in turn, lift the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Nonetheless, the downbeat US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data undermines the USD. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of fourth quarter US GDP revealed the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.3% in Q4, below the 2.6% growth estimated. The reading came in weaker than the 3.1% growth seen in Q3. 

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza went into effect a week ago. Meanwhile, Lebanon the November ceasefire in Lebanon is holding despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets. Investors will closely monitor the development surrounding geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions in the region could boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the Swiss Franc. 

• USD/CHF approaches 0.9100, gaining 0.33% amid U.S. trade tensions with neighbors.
• Technical rebound as USD/CHF recaptures 0.9000 after dipping below 50-day SMA.
• Potential rise toward 0.9152 if bulls overcome the 0.9100 resistance, with 0.9200 in sight.

The USD/CHF rallied for the third consecutive day, edged towards the 0.9100 figure, and posted gains of over 0.33%. US President Donald Trump's tariff threats to Canada and Mexico bolstered the Greenback, which recovered after the US Dollar Index (DXY) dived to a three-day low of 107.50.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF uptrend remains intact, although the pair briefly edged below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8963 on Tuesday before reclaiming the 0.9000 figure.

Momentum turned bullish after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed above its neutral line, an indication that bulls are in charge.

Therefore, further upside in the USD/CHF is seen. Once bulls reclaim 0.9100, a rally toward the January 17 swing high of 0.9152 is on the cards. On further strength, the next resistance would be the 0.9200 mark.

Conversely, sellers must clear the 50-day SMA at 0.8984, followed by the January 27 swing low of 0.8964.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

• USD/CHF moves little as traders await economic releases seeking fresh impetus.
• US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) could report a 2.6% growth, down from the previous 3.1%.
• Swiss Trade Balance and the KOF Leading Indicator are scheduled to be released on Thursday.

USD/CHF steadies after two consecutive days of gains, trading around 0.9070 during the Asian session on Thursday. This decline is mainly attributed to a weaker US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, hovers slightly below the 108.00 mark at the time of writing.

Traders are awaiting the release of the US fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data, scheduled for Thursday. The market consensus expects a slowdown in annualized GDP growth, with a forecast of 2.6%, down from the previous 3.1%. Inflationary concerns persist, with the Q4 GDP Price Index expected to rise to 2.5%, up from 1.9%.

The downside for USD/CHF may be limited, as the USD could strengthen following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

The Fed's hawkish stance was further reinforced by its decision to remove language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also emphasized in the press conference that the central bank would require "real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market" before considering any policy changes.

In Switzerland, the ZEW Survey Expectations for January increased to 17.7, reversing the previous month's decline to -20, according to data released on Wednesday. Traders are also awaiting the Swiss Trade Balance for December and the KOF Leading Indicator for January, both scheduled for release on Thursday.

• USD/CHF softens to around 0.9035 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• Investors brace for the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. 
• The Swiss Franc jumps as investors seek safety. 

The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.9035 on Wednesday during the early European trading hours. The weaker US Dollar (USD) and a decline in US Treasury yields drag the pair lower. The markets might turn cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday.

The Fed is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate unchanged at its January meeting on Wednesday. The strong US fundamental story, elevated inflation, and a more hawkish Fed continue to favor the Greenback in the near term. There is no updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), but investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference as it might offer some hints about the monetary policy outlook.

On the other hand, the Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthens as investors rush into safe-haven assets. The uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff policies and the ongoing Russia and Ukraine conflict could lift the CHF against the USD. Officials and media outlets reported on Wednesday that Ukrainian drones targeted oil and power facilities in western parts of Russia. 

• USD/CHF rebounds from 50-day SMA and support trendline, indicating potential reversal.
• For sustained recovery, pair needs to break January 23 high of 0.9108, targeting mid-January peak at 0.9153.
• A drop below 0.9000 could trigger further declines to trendline support at 0.8990 and 50-day SMA at 0.8982.

The USD/CHF recovers some ground after posting 0.45% losses on Monday amid broad US Dollar weakness. Although the pair tested the confluence of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a support trendline drawn from October 2024’s lows touched at 0.8982, buyers moved in and pushed spot prices above the 0.9000 figure, gaining over 0.26% on Tuesday.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The daily chart suggests the USD/CHF could be forming a reversal pattern, that it could open the door for further upside. However key resistance levels must be surpassed, if bulls are going to test year-to-date (YTD) highs reached January 13 at 0.9201.

If USD/CHF clears the January 23 daily high at 0.9108, it could open the door to test the January 17 cycle high at 0.9153. On the other hand, if sellers stepped in and achieve a daily close below 0.9000, the first support would be the trendline drawn from last October’s low passing near 0.8990 – 0.9000. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA at 0.8982, followed by the November 22 swing high at 0.8957.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

• USD/CHF recovers strongly from 0.8965 as investors expect the Fed-SNB policy divergence to widen further.
• The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady in the policy announcement on Wednesday.
• The safe-haven demand of the US Dollar increases in a risk-aversion environment.

The USD/CHF pair rebounds strongly, slightly above the key hurdle of 0.9050 in Tuesday’s North American trading hours after a two-week-long correction to near 0.8965. The Swiss Franc pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its upside journey in a jittery market environment.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, soars to near 108.00. Investors rushed to the US Dollar as global technology stocks melted down on the assumption that Chinese DeepSeek’s low-cost Artificial Intelligence (AI) model would reduce the technology gap between China and the United States (US).

Meanwhile, investors have underpinned the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc (CHF) amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a pause in the current policy-easing cycle in the policy announcement on Wednesday. On the contrary, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could push its borrowing rates into the negative territory to avoid growing risks of inflation undershooting the central bank’s range of 0%-2%. This would widen the policy divergence between the Fed and the SNB.

In the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, investors will look for cues about how long the central bank will keep interest rates steady.

USD/CHF is on track to revisit its 15-month high, around 0.9200. The outlook of the Swiss Franc pair remains firm as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.8900 is sloping higher.

The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting a strong upside momentum.

For a fresh upside toward the round-level resistance of 0.9300 and the 16 March 2023 high of 0.9342, the asset needs to break decisively above the October 2023 high of 0.9244.

On the flip side, a downside move below the psychological support of 0.9000 would drag the asset towards the November 22 high of 0.8958, followed by the December 16 low of 0.8900.

USD/CHF weekly chart

• USD/CHF appreciates as Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of multiple products.
• Trump stated that he "wants tariffs 'much bigger' than 2.5%," the rate proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• SNB’s Schlegel said that while the central bank does not support negative interest rates, it cannot completely rule them out.

USD/CHF recovers its recent losses from the previous two sessions, trading around 0.9050 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The upside of the pair could be attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD) following tariff threats made by US President Donald Trump.

Trump announced plans on Monday evening to impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper. The goal is to shift production to the United States (US) and bolster domestic manufacturing.

Additionally, Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary under Trump, stated that he aims to introduce new universal tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5%. These tariffs could rise to as much as 20%, reflecting Trump’s aggressive stance on trade policies, consistent with his campaign rhetoric last year.

However, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One early Tuesday that he “wants tariffs ‘much bigger’ than 2.5%,” as proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. However, Trump noted that he has not yet decided on the specific tariff levels.

The US Dollar gained strength amid uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's trade and immigration policies. This backdrop may encourage the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a cautious stance at Wednesday’s policy decision.

The USD/CHF pair’s upside potential is bolstered by the weaker Swiss Franc (CHF) amid ultra-dovish monetary policy guidance from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel, in an interview on Monday, stated that while the Bank does not support negative interest rates, it cannot entirely dismiss the possibility. Schlegel made these remarks during a conversation with broadcaster SRF.

In recent weeks, Schlegel has repeatedly highlighted the potential for negative rates, especially as Swiss inflation dropped to 0.6% in December, sparking concerns about deflation.

• USD/CHF gains traction to around 0.9065 in Monday’s early European session. 
• A Trump threat of tariffs on Colombia lifts the USD. 
• SNB’s Schlegel said it still has room to cut rates again and even take rates below 0% if inflation falls too far. 

The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory near 0.9065 during the early European session. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher as traders assess the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff plans at the start of a week. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision will be in the spotlight.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday imposed sweeping retaliatory measures on Colombia, including tariffs and sanctions, after the South American country refused to allow two military planes carrying deported migrants to land. However, the White House said on Monday that Colombia had agreed to accept military aircraft carrying deported migrants. The prospect of high tariffs on goods from countries including China, Canada, Mexico, and the Eurozone has fueled concerns about inflation, boosting US Treasury bond yields and the Greenback. 

On the Swiss front, the ultra-dovish monetary policy guidance from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could weigh on the Swiss Franc (CHF) and act as a tailwind for USD/CHF. The SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos that the SNB “doesn’t like negative interest rates” but if we have to do it, “we will.” Meanwhile, any signs of escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the CHF. 

• USD/CHF remains under selling pressure around 0.9045 in Friday’s early European session, down 0.23% on the day. 
• Trump's rate cut calls undermine the USD against the CHF. 
• Easing Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the upside for the Swiss Franc.

The USD/CHF pair remains on the defensive around 0.9045 during the early European session on Friday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD) broadly. Traders will closely monitor the flash US S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, which is due later on Friday. 

During a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, US President Donald Trump on Thursday called for a drop in interest rates after asking for a reduction of oil prices set by a group of nations known as OPEC, which includes Saudi Arabia. "With oil prices going down, I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise they should be dropping all over the world," said Trump. 

The Greenback remains weak following Trump’s remarks. Market players await more cues from the US economic data and further clarity on tariff announcements. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled for its next decision on interest rates next week, which is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the current level of between 4.25% and 4.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

Although Trump tariff threats would have only a limited impact on Swiss inflation, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal might cap the upside for the Swiss Franc (CHF), a safe-haven currency. However, any signs of renewed geopolitical risks or rising global uncertainties could boost the CHF against the USD. 

• USD/CHF lacks any firm intraday direction, though it manages to hold above a two-week low.
• A further recovery in the US bond yields underpins the USD and lends some support to the pair.
• A positive risk tone weighs on the safe-haven CHF and supports prospects for further gains.

The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 0.9035-0.9030 area, or over a two-week low and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.9060 region, nearly unchanged for the day amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the monthly low amid bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice this year. That said, an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields acts as a tailwind for the buck, which, in turn, is seen lending support to the USD/CHF pair. 

Meanwhile, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel's ultra-dovish comments, opening doors for negative interest rates, might continue to weigh on the Swiss Franc. Apart from this, the underlying bullish tone around the equity markets could undermine the safe-haven CHF and further contribute to limiting any meaningful downside for the USD/CHF pair.

Traders also seem reluctant and might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of US President Donald Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum for more concrete announcements on tariffs. This, in turn, could infuse volatility in the global financial markets and influence the USD price dynamics, which, in turn, should provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CHF pair. 

Traders on Thursday will further take cues from the release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, due later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the 0.9200 mark, or the highest level since May 2024 touched earlier this month.

• USD/CHF edges higher as SNB Schlegel’s ultra-dovish monetary policy guidance weighs on the Swiss Franc.
• SNB Schlegel opens doors for negative interest rates if inflation continues to remain lower.
• Investors seek more clarification on Trump’s tariff agenda.

The USD/CHF pair ticks higher to near 0.9060 in Wednesday’s North American session. The Swiss Franc pair recovers its intraday losses and gains marginally as Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel has opened doors for negative interest rates.

Schlegel said in an interview with Bloomberg TV at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos that the SNB “doesn’t like negative interest rates” but if we have to do it, “we will”. His ultra-dovish monetary policy stance was backed by upside risks to inflation undershooting the SNB’s target range. Schlegel added, “We are ready to make currency market interventions if necessary again.”

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) performs better against the Swiss Franc (CHF) but trades cautiously, with investors seeking explicit tariff plans by United States (US) President Donald Trump.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds after posting a fresh two-week low of 107.75 on Wednesday.

Investors look for more clarity on Trump’s tariff plans as he has not clarified in his two days of administration. On the contrary, market participants had anticipated that Trump will impose tariff hikes right after returning the White House.

Trump said that he is thinking to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China, which will come into effect on February 1. Market participants see this as more balanced approach, which is less fearful than what they had though after Trump’s comments in the election campaign.

• USD/CHF recovers to around 0.9070 in Wednesday’s early European session.
• Trump's plans for tariffs lift the USD broadly. 
• The safe-haven flows could boost the CHF and create a headwind for USD/CHF. 

The USD/CHF pair rebounds to around 0.9070, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he will impose tariffs and duties on trading partners. 

Late Tuesday, Trump said that his team was discussing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, as well as duties on China and the European Union. Trump added that the actions could take effect as early as February 1. “We’re talking about a tariff of 10% on China based on the fact that they’re sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada,” said Trump. Analysts expect Trump’s administration could trigger inflationary pressures, potentially convincing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates only once this year, supporting the USD. 

The rising expectation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) would continue to cut the interest rates might weigh on the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the USD. The rate has already been lowered to 0.5% due to concerns over inflation remaining below the SNB’s goal. 

On the other hand, the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF. Ukraine launched a wave of drones into Russia, causing a fire at an oil storage and explosions at a plant producing military aircraft, the Ukrainian army said on Tuesday. Investors will also monitor the developments surrounding the ceasefire agreement and a hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas.

• USD/CHF fluctuates sharply, soaring then retracting to open levels after Trump proposes tariffs.
• Mixed technical outlook; pair rebounds from key support but can't sustain above 20-day SMA.
• Future hinges on breaking 20-day SMA to revisit January highs, with risks below 0.9040.

The USD/CHF whipsawed during Tuesday's session after US President Donald Trump hinted that he could impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada as he was signing a tranche of executive orders on day 1. Therefore, the pair rose sharply towards its daily peak of 0.9114, before reversing course near its opening price at 0.9062, and is virtually unchanged.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF dipped towards a three-month-old support trendline near 0.9049 before buyers moved in, pushing the exchange rate past the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.9085 and the 0.9100 figure. Nevertheless, the pair retreated below the former, near its opening price.

If USD/CHF resumes its uptrend and clears the 20-day SMA, the bulls will remain hopeful of pushing the exchange rate toward the January 13 high at 0.9200. A decisive break would signal that bullish momentum is growing, opening the door to testing last year’s peak of 0.9224.

Conversely, if USD/CHF dips below 0.9040, sellers could test the 100-day SMA at 0.9000. A decisive break will expose the 50-day SMA at 0.8960.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

• USD/CHF appreciated following news that President Trump intends to direct federal agencies to review tariff policies.
• Traders speculate that Trump’s policies could lead to inflationary pressures, possibly restricting the Fed to just one more rate cut.
• The Swiss Franc remains generally weak as investors expect the Swiss National Bank to continue lowering interest rates.

USD/CHF holds ground after experiencing volatility, trading around 0.9070 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US Dollar saw volatility as US President Donald Trump's inauguration day made waves. However, the USD faced downward pressure as Trump appeared to strengthen his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the TikTok deal and a potentially softer approach to tariffs contributing to the shift.

The US Dollar (USD) regained ground following news that President Donald Trump intends to direct federal agencies to review tariff policies and evaluate the United States' trade relationships with Canada, Mexico, and China.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, trades around 108.30 after trimming recent gains. The US Dollar receives downward pressure as the US Treasury yields on 2-year and 10-year bonds remain subdued at 4.23% and 4.54%, respectively, at the time of writing.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain borrowing rates within the current range of 4.25%-4.50% over the next three policy meetings. However, investors speculate that policies under Trump’s administration could trigger inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the Fed to only one additional rate cut.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly weak as investors anticipate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could continue to reduce interest rates. Swiss interest rates have already been lowered to 0.5% due to concerns over inflation remaining below the central bank’s target.

The traditionally safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) may face challenges as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease. Traders are closely watching developments related to a long-delayed ceasefire agreement and a hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas.

• USD/CHF continues downward, breaking below key SMAs, signaling potential for further consolidation.
• Persistent downtrend may test critical support at 0.9000 after breaching October trendline.
• Recovery above 50-day SMA at 0.9082 could push towards 20-day SMA at 0.9110 and 0.9150.

The USD/CHF reverses course and drops below 0.9100 for the fourth consecutive day. Broad US Dollar weakness keeps most G8 FX currencies in the green territory as US President Donald Trump begins his second term. The pair trades at 0.9068, down 0.87%.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF has fallen below the 20 and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) each at 0.9110 and 0.9082, respectively, an indication that some consolidation lies ahead. If sellers regain control, they could challenge a support trendline drawn from October lows, which if broken opens the door for testing 0.9000.

On the other hand, if USD/CHF edges above the 50-day SMA at 0.9082, buyers could target the 20-day SMA at 0.9110. If cleared, the next stop would be the 0.9150.

USD/CHF Price Chart - Daily

• USD/CHF oscillates around 0.9150 as investors turn cautious ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
• Trump’s economic policies are expected to boost US inflation and growth.
• The SNB is expected to continue reducing interest rates this year.

The USD/CHF pair trades sideways inside Friday’s trading range around 0.9140 in Monday’s European session. The Swiss Franc pair consolidates as investors have sidelined ahead of United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump’s swearing ceremony.

Market participants expect an unprecedented global trading environment under Trump’s administration as he is expected to sign over 200 orders soon after returning to the White House. His initial orders might include immigration controls, higher tariffs, and lower individual taxes. Higher import tariffs are expected to lead to a global trader war, a scenario that will boost demand for US-produced goods and services. While, at the same time, it will make offerings from other economies as expensive.

Trump’s economic policies would be pro-growth and inflationary for the United States (US) economy and favorable for the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is down to near 109.00 but is still 10% higher in slightly over three months.

Going forward, Trump’s policies are expected to force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain interest rates elevated for a longer period. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in more than one 25-bps interest rate reduction this year, seeing the first coming in the June meeting.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly weak as investors expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could continue reducing interest rates. Swiss interest rates have already come down to 0.5% amid growing risks of inflation undershooting the central bank’s target.

• USD/CHF weakens to around 0.9130 in Monday’s Asian session, losing 0.22% on the day. 
• The positive view of the pair prevails above the 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at 0.9200; the initial support level is located at 0.9082. 

The USD/CHF pair edges lower to near 0.9130 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, pressured by the weakening of the US Dollar (USD). The cautious mood in the markets ahead of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration provides some support to the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). 

Technically, USD/CHF keeps a bullish vibe at present as the price is well supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 60.50, suggesting that further upside looks favorable.

The crucial resistance level for USD/CHF emerges at 0.9200, presenting the psychological level, the high of January 13, and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to 0.9225, the high of May 1. The next upside barrier is seen at 0.9300, the high of March 17, 2023. 

On the other hand, the initial support level is at 0.9082, the low of January 15. Extended losses below this level could expose the key contention level at 0.9000, the round figure. The additional downside filter to watch is 0.8980, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band, followed by 0.8874, the 100-day EMA.  

USD/CHF daily chart