CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Swiss Franc (USDCHF)

• USD/CHF retreats after hitting its five-month high at 0.9021 on Thursday.
• The Fed’s ‘dot-plot’ suggested only two rate cuts in 2025.
• The Swiss trade surplus narrowed to 5,424 million in November, down from the previous surplus of 8,025 million.

USD/CHF edges lower following Switzerland’s trade balance data released on Thursday. The pair trades around 0.8970 during the European hours after pulling back from five-month high at 0.9021.

Additionally, the USD/CHF appreciated as the US Dollar (USD) strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at its December meeting, bringing the benchmark lending rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking a two-year low.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 108.28, the highest level not seen since November 2022, on Thursday as the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, or ‘dot-plot’, suggested only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four cuts projected in September.

Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed will be cautious about further cuts as inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Traders are highly expected to focus on upcoming US economic data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and the final Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized reading, scheduled for release on Thursday.

Switzerland's Trade Balance, released by the Federal Customs Administration, showed a narrowing surplus of 5,424 million in November, down from 8,025 million in October. On a month-on-month basis, exports declined to 23,682 million, while imports fell to 18,257 million.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains under pressure as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining price stability over the medium term, signaling readiness to adjust monetary policy if needed. Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has downwardly revised growth targets for the current year and 2025 to 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

• USD/CHF ticks higher to near 0.8945 ahead of the Fed policy meeting at 20:00 GMT.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50%.
• The Swiss agency has lowered GDP growth to 0.9% and 1.5% for the current year and 2025, respectively.

The USD/CHF pair moves slightly higher to near 0.8945 in the North American session ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting at 20:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to deliver a 25-basis points (bps) interest rate reduction with slightly hawkish remarks on the policy outlook.

Market participants expect that Fed officials have become more worried about stalling progress in the disinflation process than downside risks to employment. The US core Consumer Proce Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – remains steady at 3.3% in the September-November period.

Apart from the Fed’s policy decision, investors will pay close attention to Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to know the impact of incoming US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, such as deportations, higher import tariffs, and lower taxes, on the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly bearish as investors expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates further. For the Swiss economic outlook, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has downwardly revised growth targets for the current year and 2025 to 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

USD/CHF gathers strength to break above the supply zone plotted in a range of 0.8925-0.8950 on a daily timeframe. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.8860 suggests that the trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong upside momentum.

After breaking above Tuesday's high of 0.8975, the asset could rise to near the psychological resistance of 0.9000 and the July 2 high of 0.9050.

In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the round-level support of 0.8700 could drag the asset toward the October 23 low of 0.8650, followed by the November low of 0.8616.

USD/CHF daily chart

• USD/CHF retreats after hitting 0.8974, a level not seen since July 2024, on Tuesday.
• CME FedWatch tool suggests almost fully pricing in a quarter basis point cut at its December meeting.
• SNB reiterated commitment to ensuring price stability over the medium term and expressed readiness to adjust monetary policy if necessary.

USD/CHF extends its losses after pulling back from a six-month high of 0.8974, reached on Tuesday. The pair trades around 0.8920 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Traders are bracing for a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later in the North American session.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now almost fully pricing in a quarter basis point cut at the Fed's December meeting. Additionally, traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and Summary of Economic Projections (dot-plot) after the meeting.

On Tuesday, the US Census Bureau reported that US Retail Sales rose 0.7% MoM in November, compared to the 0.5% prior increase. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales Control Group increased 0.4% from the previous decline of 0.1%.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) came under pressure after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points last week, surpassing expectations for a smaller reduction, as it seeks to address subdued inflation.

The SNB reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining price stability over the medium term, signaling readiness to adjust monetary policy if needed. The central bank noted that "underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter," with annual inflation declining from 1.1% in August to 0.7% in November, nearing the lower end of its target range of 0-2%.

Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has revised its economic growth forecasts, projecting the Swiss economy to grow by 0.9% in 2023, down from the previous estimate of 1.2%. For 2024, the growth forecast has been adjusted to 1.5%, slightly lower than the earlier projection of 1.6%. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute forecasts growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, anticipating weak foreign demand until mid-2025, followed by a gradual recovery.

• USD/CHF refreshes a five-month high of around 0.8970 as the US Dollar performs strongly, with the Fed policy in focus.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50%.
• Investors expect the SNB to cut interest rates further as risks of inflation undershooting SNB’s target have escalated.

The USD/CHF pair stretches its winning spell for the eighth trading day on Tuesday. The Swiss Franc pair posts a fresh five-month high around 0.8970 as the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains weak across the board on expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could continue loosening its monetary policy to avoid risks of inflation undershooting the central bank’s target.

Last week, the SNB surprisingly reduced interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 0.5%, while investors expected a 25-bps interest rate reduction.

This week, investors will focus on the Q4 SNB Bulletin report, which includes the ‘Monetary policy report’ and the report on ‘Business cycle trends’.

Meanwhile, the outperformance of the US Dollar (USD) has also strengthened the Swiss Franc pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbs to near 107.00 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. According to the Bloomberg survey, the Fed will cut its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% but will deliver slightly hawkish remarks on the monetary policy outlook.

USD/CHF appears confident to deliver a decisive break above the supply zone, which is plotted in a range of 0.8925-0.8950 on a daily timeframe. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.8856 suggests that the trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong upside momentum.

After breaking above the intraday high of 0.8975, the asset could rise to near the psychological resistance of 0.9000 and the July 2 high of 0.9050.

In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the round-level support of 0.8700 could drag the asset toward the October 23 low of 0.8650, followed by the November low of 0.8616.

USD/CHF daily chart

• USD/CHF gains momentum to near 0.8955 in Tuesday’s early European session, adding 0.16% on the day. 
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at the December meeting on Wednesday. 
• Geopolitical risks could boost the safe-haven currency like the Swiss Franc and cap the upside for the pair. 

The USD/CHF pair extends its upside to around 0.8955 during the early European session on Tuesday, bolstered by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Quarterly Bulletin for the fourth quarter will be released on Wednesday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting will take center stage on the same day. 

Investors expect the Fed will cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December, with markets pricing in a 95.4% possibility of that outcome as of Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That would bring the target federal funds rate down to a range of 4.25%-4.50% from its current range of between 4.50% and 4.75%. 

The Fed Press Conference and a Summary of Economic Projections, or ‘dot-plot,’ will be closely monitored as the markets brace for the US central bank to scale back its easing in 2025 in anticipation of higher inflation under the Trump administration. The hawkish cut by the Fed could provide some support to the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF) in the near term. 

“Expectations of stubborn inflation amid an otherwise robust economy will boost the likelihood that interest rates stay higher for longer, either through an extended pause in rate cuts or a much slower, more deliberate pace in 2025,” Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride said.

On the Swiss front, data released by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) showed on Monday that Switzerland’s Producer and Import Price Index fell by 0.6% MoM in November, compared to the previous month's 0.3% decline. The reading came in softer than a rise of 0.2% expected. 

Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF. Turkey denounced Israel’s plan to double Israeli settlement in the occupied Golan Heights, raising concerns over Israel’s actions in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime.

• USD/CHF recovers from 0.8900, tracing the US Dollar’s bounce back.
• The Fed policy remains in the spotlight, in which it is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50%.
• On Thursday, the SNB unexpectedly cut its key borrowing rate by 50 bps to 0.5%.

The USD/CHF pair rebounds from the round-level support of 0.8900 in the European session on Monday. The Swiss Franc pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its intraday losses and turns positive, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) ticking higher around 107.00.

Investors brace for a high volatility in the USD counter as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to announce its last interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday. Market participants will keenly focus on the Fed’s dot plot and the inflation outlook for 2025, with investors remaining confident that the central bank will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%.

The Fed’s dot plot will show where the Federal Funds Rate will head in the medium and long term. According to a Bloomberg survey, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025. The Fed’s policy-easing cycle would be more gradual next year as economists worry more about rising upside risks to inflation than downside risks to employment.

In today’s session, investors will focus on the flash United States (US) S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for December, which will be published at 14:45 GMT. The PMI report is expected to show moderate growth in the overall business activity.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) remains broadly under pressure as investors expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to return to an ultra-loose policy trajectory to avoid growing risks to inflation, undershooting the bank’s target of 2%.

The SNB surprisingly reduced its key borrowing rates by 50 bps to 0.5% on Thursday, while investors anticipated a usual 25 bps interest rate reduction.

• USD/CHF strives to reclaim an almost five-month high of 0.8960 amid weakness in the Swiss Franc (CHF).
• The SNB unexpectedly cuts its interest rates by 50 bps to 0.5% on Thursday.
• Investors expect the Fed to reduce its key borrowing rates by 25 bps on Wednesday.

The USD/CHF pair aims to revisit a five-month high of 0.8960 in Friday’s North American session. The Swiss Franc pair ticks higher as the outlook of the Swiss currency has weakened across the board after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprisingly reduced its key borrowing rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 0.5% on Thursday.

Market participants anticipated the SNB cutting interest rates by 25 bps as the central bank remained worried about the risks of inflation undershooting the bank’s target and growing concerns over the global markets due to potential tariffs by United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump.

After a larger-than-usual interest rate cut decision, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel commented, "With our easing of monetary policy today we are countering the lower inflationary pressure." On the interest rate outlook, Schlegel said, "We will continue to monitor the situation closely, and will adjust our monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term."

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) surrenders its intraday gains and turns negative as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to cut its key borrowing rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls back to near 106.75 after facing selling pressure above 107.00.

Though the Fed is certain to cut interest rates next week, it is expected to pause the policy-easing cycle in January as progress in disinflation appears to have stalled. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 77% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged next month.

SNB surprised with a 50bp cut to bring policy rate to 0.5%. Markets were split between a 25 and 50bp cut. USD/CHF was last seen at 0.8938 levels, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Safe-haven characteristic of the CHF may play up

“There was a slight tweak in the statement to say that policymakers will ‘adjust its monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.’ Vs its Sep statement, which indicated that ‘Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.’ The phrase ‘further cuts’ was dropped in the current statement. SNB Chairman Schlegel did say that ‘if needed we will adjust rate at March meeting.. will tolerate inflation outside 0 - 2% range’.”

“It does give the impression that policymakers will be more tolerant of any slippage in inflation in the short term but policymakers will still be watchful of CHF appreciation. Statement mentioned that SNB is prepared to intervene in FX markets if needed and that Schlegel reiterated their willingness to implement negative interest rates if necessary. Overall, we maintain a mild bearish bias on CHF on the back of dovish SNB that is watchful of strong CHF, amid ongoing disinflationary pressures.”

“That said, safe-haven characteristic of the CHF may play up in the event of geopolitical risk-offs or during episodes of political uncertainties in Germany, France. USD/CHF rose. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 0.8955, 0.9020 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Support at 0.8850 (21 DMA), 0.88 levels (50% fibo).”

• USD/CHF jumps to near 0.8900 as the SNB cuts its key borrowing rates by 50 bps to 0.5% against estimates of a 25 bps interest rate reduction.
• SNB Schlegel kept the option of negative interest rates on the table in his last commentary in November.
• An expected growth in the US inflation pushes Fed rate cut bets to the threshold.

The USD/CHF pair surges to a fresh two-week high near 0.8900 as Swiss France (CHF) dives after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprisingly reduces its key borrowing rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 0.5%. This is the fourth straight interest rate cut by the SNB in a row but first larger-than-usual. The SNB was anticipated to reduce interest rates but at a slower pace of 25 bps to 0.75%.

SNB’s rate-cut expectations were based on extremely dovish remarks from SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel at an event in Zurich in late November. "I want to emphasize that lower interest rates, plus negative interest rates, are not excluded from our toolbox," Schlegel said.

Schlegel chose dovish remarks for the interest rate guidance as inflationary pressures in the Swiss economy have remained in their desired range of 0%-2% since June 2023. The Annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 0.6% in October.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades slightly lower as traders have priced in 25 bps interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to 4.25%-4.50% for the policy meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges lower to near 106.50.

Fed dovish bets strengthened after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, which showed a moderate growth in rental prices. Annual headline and core CPI – which strips off volatile food and energy prices – rose in line with estimates of 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively.

• USD/CHF edges lower due to the softer US Dollar amid increased odds of a Fed rate cut next week.
• CME FedWatch Tool indicates nearly a 99% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 18.
• The Swiss Franc remains stable ahead of an SNB Interest Rate Decision later on Thursday.

USD/CHF offers its recent gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects downwards after breaking its four-day winning streak. The USD/CHF pair trades around 0.8840 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Greenback receives downward pressure as the recent US CPI report seems not enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting rates in December.

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests nearly a 99% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points on December 18. Traders shift their focus on the US November Producer Price Index (PPI) for fresh impetus, which is due later on Thursday.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7% year-over-year in November from 2.6% in October. The headline CPI reported a 0.3% reading MoM, in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed 3.3% YoY, while the core CPI increased 0.3% MoM in November, as expected.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains relatively stable in anticipation of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cutting its key policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its meeting later in the day. This rate cut will mark the fourth consecutive reduction, as inflation remains "comfortably" within the central bank’s 0-2% target range.

However, some economists anticipate a bumper 50 basis point cut in December to boost economic growth as Swiss consumer price inflation rose to 0.7% in November, up from 0.6% in October but falling short of the projected 0.8%. Additionally, Switzerland's economy remains sluggish, with GDP growing by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, compared to 0.6% in Q2.

• The US Dollar recovery stalls below 0.8850 ahead of the US inflation report.
• US CPI is expected to reflect steady price pressure that might force to scale back easing expectations for next year.
• The SNB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

The US Dollar is trading higher for the fourth consecutive day although bulls have been halted at 0.8850 with investors awaiting the reading of November’s US CPI figures.

The pair accelerated its rebound from last week's lows at 0.8735 on Tuesday. The Dollar has been appreciating across the board this week, with investors anticipating a strong US inflation report today.

November’s CPI is unlikely to alter market expectations of a 25 bps Fed cut next week but might force to scale back monetary easing hopes for next year. This would buoy US Treasury yields and drag the US Dollar higher with them.

In Switzerland, the SNB is expected to cut rates on Thursday and might leave the door open for further cuts in early 2025 considering the weak inflation levels. A large rate cut, which is not completely discarded, would take markets by surprise and hit the CHF.

USD/CHF inched higher overnight, tracking broader US Dollar (USD) moves and in anticipation of SNB meeting on Thursday. Pair was last at 0.8848 levels. Last CPI print saw a small uptick to 0.7% for Nov but largely, on trend basis, inflationary pressure has come off significantly from peak of 3.5% in Aug 2023 to 0.6% in Oct 2024, OCBC’s FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.

Risks somewhat skewed to the upside

“Another 25bp cut is likely this Thu though markets have priced in ~50% chance of a jumbo 50bp cut. We will be watching for any SNB surprises on this front, as SNB Chair had said that the SNB will re-introduce negative interest rates if necessary. He added that even though SNB did not like negative rates, SNB could use negative rates as a tool to weaken CHF. So clearly, policymakers are against CHF strength.”

“If the dovish rhetoric remains, then the room for CHF to appreciate may be more restrained (unless USD falls further). Overall, we maintain a mild bearish bias on CHF on the back of dovish SNB, amid ongoing disinflationary pressures. That said, safe-haven characteristic of the CHF may play up in the event of geopolitical risk-offs or during episodes of political uncertainties in Germany, France.”

“Bearish momentum on daily chart is fading while RSI rose. Risks somewhat skewed to the upside. Resistance here at 0.89 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Support at 0.88, 0.8730 (50 DMA), 0.8640 (100 DMA).”

• USD/CHF gains ground to near 0.8835 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• Traders raise bets on Fed rate cut this month to 86%. 
• The SNB will likely cut rates by 25 bps at the December meeting on Thursday. 

The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day around 0.8835 during the early European session on Wednesday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the stronger Greenback due to the rising bets for a less dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors will keep an eye on the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is due later on Wednesday. The attention will shift to the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision on Thursday. 

The US CPI inflation data released on Wednesday are the final major piece of data that Fed officials will consider before they meet next week to decide on interest rates. A modest increase is unlikely to deter Fed policymakers from cutting their key rate by a quarter point. The odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the Fed's December meeting are high, with 86% of traders expecting a cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

On the Swiss front, the SNB is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate reduction to 0.75% at its December meeting on Thursday. "Market pricing may make a 25bp rate cut a slightly hawkish surprise, but we continue to see no reason - and also little chance of lasting success in terms of the exchange rate - for larger cuts given the resilient economy and stable exchange rate," said Christian Schulz, deputy chief European economist at Citi. However, he anticipates the Swiss central bank to downgrade its short-term forecasts again, adding, "The SNB's guidance will likely remain dovish."
 

• USD/CHF drifts lower to 0.8770 in Tuesday's early European session, down 0.19% on the day. 
• The SNB is anticipated to cut its key policy rate by 25 bps on Thursday. 
• Friday’s US employment data prompted the anticipation of a Fed rate cut next week.

The USD/CHF pair softens to around 0.8770 during the early European session on Tuesday. The uptick of the Swiss Franc (CHF) is bolstered by further turmoil in the Middle East, which boosts the safe-haven flows. The release of the US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision will be the highlights for this week. 

Turbulence in the Middle East increased over the weekend as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow and were granted political asylum, ending 50 years of a brutal dictatorship. The downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime could lead to a conflict involving regional countries, lifting the safe-haven currency like the CHF against the Greenback. “The government’s collapse in Syria could see haven demand flowing in,” said ANZ Group Holdings analysts. 

The SNB is expected to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its December meeting on Thursday. According to a Reuters poll, over 85% of economists estimated the Swiss central bank would cut its main rate by 25 bps to 0.75% on Thursday. Christian Schulz, the deputy chief European economist at Citi, expected the SNB to downgrade its short-term forecasts again, adding, "The SNB's guidance will likely remain dovish”. This, in turn, might undermine the CHF and act as a tailwind for USD/CHF. 

On the other hand, traders raised their bets for another US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in the December meeting after the US employment report on Friday. Data released on Friday showed that US job growth rose in November, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% pointed to an easing labor market that should allow the Fed to cut interest rates again this month. Traders will keep an eye on the US inflation report on Wednesday for fresh impetus. 

• USD/CHF bounces off, marks a 0.12% rise as market sentiment weighs on safe-haven currencies.
• Technical analysis suggests potential for further gains if the pair surpasses the 0.8800 resistance level.
• Downside risk remains if USD/CHF dips below 0.8750, with subsequent support targets at 0.8726 and 0.8700.

The US Dollar pares some of its earlier losses against a basket of six currencies as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) and rises over 0.12% against the Swiss Franc amid a session characterized by an appetite for high-beta currencies. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF trades at 0.8791 after bouncing off daily lows of 0.8776.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Last week, the pair witnessed losses of over 1.80% but ended Friday’s session near the day’s high. It formed a hammer preceded by a downtrend, indicating that USD/CHF didn’t find acceptance below 0.8750. Therefore, the major edged up, beginning the week on the front foot.

If USD/CHF climbs above 0.8800, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) will be exposed at 0.8820. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the latest swing high at 0.8888, the December 2 peak, ahead of 0.8900.

Conversely, if USD/CHF falls below 0.8750, look for a re-test of the December 6 ow of 0.8726 before aiming toward 0.8700.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

• USD/CHF holds steady near 0.8860 in Wednesday’s early European session. 
• The constructive outlook of the pair remains in play above the 100-day EMA with the bullish RSI indicator. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at 0.8938; the initial support level is located at the 0.8800-0.8795 region. 

The USD/CHF pair flat lines around 0.8860 on Wednesday during the early European trading hours. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key US events this week. The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak later on Wednesday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US November employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings data.

According to the daily chart, USD/CHF keeps a bullish vibe at present as the price is well-supported above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the upward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located above the midline near 58.00, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. 

The upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 0.8938 acts as an immediate resistance level for USD/CHF. Any follow-through buying above this level could expose 0.8957, the high of November 22. The 0.9000 psychological level appears to be a tough nut to crack for USD bulls. 

On the other hand, the first downside target of the pair emerges in the 0.8800-0.8795 zone, representing the round mark and the low of November 29. Extended losses below the mentioned level could pave the way to the 0.8745-0.8735 regions, portraying the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and the 100-day EMA.  

USD/CHF daily chart

• USD/CHF has formed a bearish H&S pattern which hints at more weakness. 
• More downside will be confirmed by a break below the base of the pattern or its “neckline”. 

USD/CHF has likely formed a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart, which, if valid, indicates a probable decline is on the cards for the pair. 

USD/CHF 4-hour Chart 

The H&S is composed of a peak, the “head” (H) and two shoulders either side (S). A break below the neckline at the base of the pattern confirms a decline lower. The pattern is a bearish reversal sign. 

On USD/CHF the neckline is at around 0.8797. The initial target for the pattern is at 0.8703, the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the height of the pattern extrapolated lower (red line labelled 0.618 on chart). 

Volume has declined during the formation of the H&S (red dashed line), further enhancing the validity of the pattern. 

• USD/CHF edges lower to around 0.8815 in Friday’s early European session. 
• The rising expectation that the Fed might slow its rate-cutting cycle could support the USD. 
• Switzerland’s third-quarter GDP growth report will be the highlight on Friday. 

The USD/CHF pair loses ground to near 0.8815 during the early European session on Friday, weighed by the softer US Dollar (USD) broadly. Traders await Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3), which is due later on Friday. 

The Greenback weakens as the profit-taking sets in before a long Thanksgiving weekend. The encouraging US economic data and the cautious stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might support the USD in the near term. The FOMC Minutes released on Tuesday showed that Fed officials see interest rate cuts ahead but at a gradual pace as inflation eases and the labor market remains strong.

Switzerland’s third-quarter GDP report will take center stage on Friday. The Swiss economy is expected to expand by 0.4% QoQ in Q3, compared to 0.7% growth in the second quarter. On an annual basis, the Swiss GDP is estimated to remain steady at 1.8% in Q3. In case of a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could undermine the Swiss Franc (CHF) and act as a tailwind for USD/CHF.

Elsewhere, Russia on Thursday unleashed its second big attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this month, triggering deep power cuts across the country. An escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war could boost the safe-haven currency like the CHF against the Greenback.

• USD/CHF has broken below a key level bringing the uptrend into doubt. 
• Other band omens are also appearing suggesting the possibility of a bearish shift in the trend.

USD/CHF is at risk of tipping into a downtrend and reversing its short and medium-term bull trend, as it extends its pullback below a key level. Other “bad omens” also make their appearance on the price chart, suggesting a risk of more downside. 

USD/CHF Daily Chart 

USD/CHF has found support at the (green) 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8822 and although it could still mount a recovery from its current level and thereby rescue the uptrend, the evidence is building for a possible reversal and start of new downtrend. Given “the trend is your friend” such a reversal would suggest a bearish bias then dominating.

The pair has broken below the key 0.8801 November 9 swing low and although it failed to close below the level, the breach is still a bearish indication. 

The pair formed a Two-Bar reversal pattern (red rectangle on chart) at the November 22 and 23 highs which is bearish. This happens when a long green candle that reaches a peak is followed by a long red candle of a similar size. It is a sign of a reversal in sentiment and a signal of more downside to follow.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has formed a Double Top pattern (red ellipse) which is bearish for momentum and consequently also price. 

A break below the 0.8797 November 27 low would confirm a change in the short-term trend and more downside to targets at 0.8748 (August 14 high), and 0.8615 (November 4 low). 

That said, if price remains above the November 27 low and recovers, it could signal a resumption of the uptrend. 

If so, a break above the 0.8958 November 22 high would probably confirm a continuation up to the next target at 0.9000 (round number and psychological area), followed by 0.9050 (July 2 swing high).