New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade sideways between 0.5690 and 0.5730. In the longer run, price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Price action suggests further NZD strength
24-HOUR VIEW: "Our view for NZD to 'trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745' yesterday was incorrect as it dipped to a low of 0.5695. The drop lacks momentum, and instead of continuing to decline, NZD is more likely to trade sideways between 0.5690 and 0.5730 today."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD on Monday (17 Feb, spot at 0.5730), indicating that 'the price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790.' While NZD subsequently rose to 0.5750, it has since eased off from the high. Momentum has slowed somewhat, but as long as 0.5675 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there is still scope for NZD to strengthen."
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rate by 50bp to bring OCR to 3.75%. This is widely expected. Its economy slipped into a technical recession in 3Q, with service sector showing a faster rate of contraction in Dec while manufacturing activity was in contraction territory. Consumer confidence, business confidence and activity outlook indicators were also lacklustre. NZD was last at 0.5727 levels, OCBC's FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.
NZD may be forming a base
"That said, recent data in Jan saw a pick-up in manufacturing and services sector. MPS also noted that economic growth is expected to recover during 2025. Lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions. Higher prices for some of our key commodities and a lower exchange rate will increase export revenues. Employment growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the domestic economy recovers."
"At the press conference, Governor Orr guided for further cuts, of about 50bps by mid-July but indicated that the series of larger-than-usual interest rate cuts has come to an end. He is looking at a 25bp cut each in Apr and May. NZD fell first on policy decision as MPS continued to guide for easing bias – scope to lower the OCR further through 2025 if economic conditions evolve as projected. But NZD erased losses after Governor Orr signalled an end to the larger-than-usual magnitude of rate cuts and to revert to 25bp cuts instead."
"The OCR forecast table also indicated rates to bottom around 3.1% later this year. An end in sight for RBNZ’s rate cut cycle may imply that NZD may be forming a base, assuming the tariff impact is not overly drastic and China’s recovery finds better footing. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact though RSI eased. Consolidation likely. Support at 0.5655/75 levels (21, 50 DMAs). Resistance at 0.5750, 0.5810 (100-DMA)."
NZD/USD rose despite RBNZ’s decision to lower the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points from 4.25% to 3.75%.
RBNZ Governor Orr indicated that the Official Cash Rate forecast suggests a 50 basis point reduction by mid-year.
The US Dollar remains subdued as Treasury yields fall ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
NZD/USD retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading near 0.5720 during European hours on Wednesday. However, the pair faced challenges following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75%.
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr delivers prepared remarks on the policy statement and addresses media questions at the post-meeting press conference. Orr said that the OCR path forecasts a 50 bps reduction by mid-year, likely around July, in two 25 bps increments. The economy has substantial spare capacity, making rate cuts in April and May appropriate.
However, the NZD/USD pair’s upside could be restrained amid rising risk sentiment following fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. According to Bloomberg, Trump stated on Tuesday that he plans to impose a 25% tariff on foreign cars, with higher duties also expected on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. He indicated that an official announcement could come as soon as April 2.
The NZD/USD pair gains support as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid falling Treasury yields, despite ongoing caution regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. Investors await the release of the FOMC Minutes later in the North American session.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, has edged lower to around 107.00. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields stand at 4.30% for the 2-year note and 4.54% for the 10-year note at the time of writing.
On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that while US economic conditions remain positive, the outlook for rate cuts in 2025 remains uncertain. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reinforced the need for a steady interest rate policy, citing persistent inflation concerns.
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
NZD/USD could rise toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5790 level.
The 14-day RSI remains above the 50 mark, strengthening the bullish sentiment.
The immediate supports appear at nine- and 14-day EMAs of 0.5695 and 0.5685, respectively.
The NZD/USD pair trades near 0.5710 during Asian hours on Wednesday. However, the pair faced challenges following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75%.
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr delivers prepared remarks on the policy statement and addresses media questions at the post-meeting press conference. Orr said that the OCR path forecasts a 50 bps reduction by mid-year, likely around July, in two 25 bps increments. The economy has substantial spare capacity, making rate cuts in April and May appropriate.
Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a bullish market sentiment, with the pair remaining within an ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the 50 mark, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Additionally, the NZD/USD pair is positioned above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a stronger short-term momentum.
To the upside, the NZD/USD pair could rise toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the 0.5790 level, followed by the two-month high of 0.5794, reached on January 24.
The NZD/USD pair tests immediate support at the nine-day EMA at 0.5695, followed by a 14-day EMA at 0.5685 level. Further support region appears at the ascending channel’s lower boundary at 0.5650 level.
A break below the channel would weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair to navigate the region around 0.5516, its lowest point since October 2022, recorded on February 3.
NZD/USD: Daily Chart
New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.03%
-0.07%
0.00%
-0.03%
-0.15%
-0.27%
0.00%
EUR
0.03%
-0.04%
0.06%
-0.00%
-0.12%
-0.24%
0.03%
GBP
0.07%
0.04%
0.08%
0.04%
-0.08%
-0.20%
0.07%
JPY
0.00%
-0.06%
-0.08%
-0.05%
-0.17%
-0.30%
-0.02%
CAD
0.03%
0.00%
-0.04%
0.05%
-0.12%
-0.24%
0.03%
AUD
0.15%
0.12%
0.08%
0.17%
0.12%
-0.11%
0.15%
NZD
0.27%
0.24%
0.20%
0.30%
0.24%
0.11%
0.27%
CHF
-0.00%
-0.03%
-0.07%
0.02%
-0.03%
-0.15%
-0.27%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
NZD/USD drifts lower for the second straight day after the RBNZ’s expected 50 bps rate cut.
Concerns about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and trade war fears further weigh on the Kiwi.
Subdued USD price action could lend support to the pair amid a generally positive risk tone.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers for the second straight day and drops to a three-day low, around the 0.5680-0.5675 area after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision this Wednesday.
As was widely expected, the RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75% following the conclusion of the February policy meeting. Moreover, the accompanying monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that the committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025. This, in turn, exerts some downward pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and drags the NZD/USD pair away from a nearly two-month top touched earlier this week.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's positive move amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates further this year. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets caps the safe-haven Greenback and could offer some support to the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, worries about US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs might hold back bulls from placing fresh bets around the NZD/USD pair.
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.
NZD/USD declines to 0.5700 on Tuesday after hitting its highest level since late January last week.
Bulls remain in control as long as the pair holds above the 20-day SMA, with the RBNZ decision set to drive the next move.
The New Zealand dollar faced selling pressure on Tuesday, dropping 0.58% agains the US Dollar to 0.5700 after last week’s rally saw the pair climb to its highest levels since late January above 0.5730. Despite the pullback, the broader outlook remains positive, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5825 still in focus.
Looking ahead, market participants are gearing up for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy decision during the Asian session. The central bank’s guidance will likely dictate the pair’s next major move, with a hawkish tone potentially reigniting the upside momentum, while a dovish stance could extend the ongoing pullback.
In the meantime,technical indicators point to a natural correction rather than a shift in trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) declined sharply to 56 but remains in positive territory, suggesting that buyers are still in control. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints rising green bars, indicating that bullish momentum has not been completely exhausted. A break below the 20-day SMA, however, could tilt the balance in favor of the bears.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Price action suggests further NZD strength
24-HOUR VIEW: "When NZD was at 0.5730 yesterday, we highlighted that it 'could test 0.5755 before levelling off.' We also highlighted that 'the major resistance at 0.5790 is unlikely to come under threat.' NZD rose less than expected to 0.5750 before easing off to close at 0.5738 (+0.09%). NZD has likely entered a range trading phase and is likely to trade between 0.5710 and 0.5745 today."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD yesterday (17 Feb, spot at 0.5730), indicating that 'the price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790.' There is no change in our view. To sustain the buildup in momentum, NZD must remain above 0.5675 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.5665 yesterday). Meanwhile, it could trade in a range for a couple of days."
NZD/USD faces challenges as the US Dollar strengthens amid rising Treasury yields.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned that upside inflation risks persist, stressing the need for more clarity before considering rate cuts.
The RBNZ is expected to cut its Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 3.75%, at Wednesday's meeting.
NZD/USD retreats after three consecutive days of gains, trading around 0.5710 during European hours on Tuesday. The decline is driven by a stronger US Dollar as Treasury yields rise.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, edges higher to 106.90 after three days of losses. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields stand at 4.27% for the 2-year note and 4.50% for the 10-year note.
On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman cautioned about persistent upside risks and emphasized the need for more certainty before considering rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged inflation improvements but noted the slow progress, stressing the importance of data-driven decisions amid policy uncertainty.
However, the NZD/USD pair found some support following US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, a US retail sales report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this year despite ongoing inflation concerns.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains under pressure as expectations grow for a significant rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at its Wednesday meeting. The RBNZ is anticipated to slash the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 3.75%.
Traders will closely watch RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference after the rate decision for insights into the central bank’s future policy stance. Any dovish signals could add to selling pressure on the Kiwi Dollar.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
NZD/USD remains under pressure near 0.5710 in Tuesday’s Asian session.
RBNZ is set to lower its OCR by 50 bps to 3.75% on Wednesday.
The escalating trade war might boost the US Dollar.
The NZD/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 0.5710 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The rising expectation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a jumbo-sized rate cut at the February meeting on Wednesday weighs on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
The RBNZ is expected to slash the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, bringing the rate down to 3.75%. Our base case is the RBNZ will cut by 25bp at each of the following two meetings, in April and May," said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley.
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will hold a press conference after the rate decision, which might offer some hints about the interest rate path in New Zealand. Any dovish remarks from the RBNZ policymakers could exert some selling pressure on the Kiwi.
The concerns of tariffs and trade war might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Greenback. US President Donald Trump on Friday maintained his drumbeat of tariff threats, stating that taxes on autos will begin as soon as April 2. This was the latest action in a series of trade measures he has announced since taking office for the second term. Meanwhile, the prospect that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would stick to its hawkish stance amid elevated inflation might act as a tailwind for the pair in the near term.
RBNZ FAQs
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
NZD/USD climbs to 0.5735, reaching its highest level since late January.
The pair maintains its bullish trajectory, posting a 1.50% gain since last week.
Technical indicators remain supportive, with RSI rising sharply.
The NZD/USD pair continued its upward momentum on Monday, gaining 0.26% to reach 0.5735, marking its highest level since late January. The pair has now accumulated a 1.50% advance over the past week, with bulls showing no signs of letting up. The next key test lies ahead at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), positioned at 0.5825, a level that could determine whether the rally extends further.
Technical indicators suggest that buyers are firmly in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 63, remaining in positive territory, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to print rising green bars, reinforcing the ongoing momentum.
Looking ahead, further gains could materialize if NZD/USD manages to breach the 0.5750 level, with the next key resistance seen at the 100-day SMA around 0.5825. A sustained break above this area would open the door for a move toward 0.5900. Conversely, failure to maintain current levels may see the pair retreating toward initial support at 0.5700, followed by the 20-day SMA near 0.5650.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could test 0.5755 vs US Dollar (USD) before levelling off; the major resistance at 0.5790 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Price action suggests further NZD strength
24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not anticipate the strong rally in NZD that sent it to a high of 0.5738 (we were expecting range trading). Although the rapid rise appears to be overdone, NZD could test 0.5755 before levelling off. The major resistance at 0.5790 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 0.5715; a breach of 0.5690 would suggest NZD is likely to trade in a range instead of rising further."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Tuesday (11 Feb, spot at 0.5640), wherein 'for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5595 and 0.5720.' After trading in a range for a few days, NZD lifted off last Friday and soared to 0.5738. The price action suggests further NZD strength, potentially to 0.5790. To sustain the buildup in momentum, NZD must remain above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.5665."
NZD/USD appreciates as market sentiment improves following the postponement of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Weaker US Retail Sales data has intensified speculation that the Fed may lower interest rates only later in the year.
The RBNZ is widely anticipated to lower its interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% on Wednesday.
NZD/USD extends its winning streak for the third successive day, trading around 0.5740 during the early European hours on Monday. Liquidity during the North American session may remain thin as all major US financial markets will be closed on Monday for the federal holiday, Presidents' Day.
This upside of the NZD/USD pair is attributed to improved market sentiment, supported by US President Donald Trump's decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) weakens as a disappointing US retail sales report has reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year, despite ongoing inflation concerns.
Data from the US Census Bureau on Friday showed that US Retail Sales fell by 0.9% in January, following a revised 0.7% increase in December (previously reported as 0.4%). This decline was sharper than the market’s expectation of a 0.1% drop.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar's performance against six major currencies, remains under pressure for the third consecutive session due to weaker US Treasury yields. As of writing, the DXY hovers around 106.70, while yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds stand at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is scheduled to meet on Wednesday and is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75%. The central bank is also likely to signal a more gradual pace of further reductions, aiming for a rate of 3.0% or 3.25% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) increased to 50.4 in January, up from a revised 48.1 in December, marking a return to a slight expansion in the services sector after ten months of contraction.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
NZD/USD gains positive traction for the third straight day amid sustained USD selling.
The divergent Fed-RBNZ expectations warrant caution for aggressive bullish traders.
Last week’s breakout above the 0.5700 mark supports prospects for additional gains.
The NZD/USD pair attracts buyers for the third successive day on Monday and climbs to a two-month peak, around the 0.5750 area during the Asian session amid the prevalent US Dollar (USD) selling bias.
The global risk sentiment gets a minor lift from the latest optimism led by US President Donald Trump's approach to ending the protracted Russia-Ukraine war. Apart from this, a delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs keeps the USD depressed near its lowest level since 17 touched on Friday and acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair.
The Greenback is further undermined by Friday's disappointing US Retail Sales, which dropped by the most in nearly two years in January. In fact, The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales declined by 0.9% during the reported month, worse than the decrease of 0.1% expected and the 0.7% increase (revised from 0.4%) in December.
That said, the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would stick to its hawkish stance amid still-sticky inflation could help limit further USD losses. Apart from this, the increasing likelihood that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a third supersized rate cut later this month might cap the NZD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the 0.5700 round figure favors bullish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move for spot prices. Hence, any corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited ahead of the crucial RNNZ meeting on Wednesday.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
NZD/USD surges more than 1% on Friday, reaching its highest level since late January.
The pair extends gains above 0.5730, setting its sights on the 100-day SMA at 0.5825.
The NZD/USD pair rallied on Friday, jumping to 0.5735 and marking a fresh multi-week high. This bullish move reinforces the pair’s recovery from recent lows and suggests a potential shift in sentiment as buyers aim for higher levels. The next significant technical hurdle now lies at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.5825, a key level that could determine whether the rally has further room to extend.
Momentum indicators are turning more constructive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed sharply to 64, reflecting increased buying pressure and indicating that the pair is approaching overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat, hinting at a cautious uptrend that may need further confirmation before a sustained breakout.
Looking forward, if NZD/USD clears the 100-day SMA at 0.5825, the next resistance level emerges at 0.5860, a previous support-turned-resistance zone. On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.5700, with a deeper retracement potentially targeting 0.5660, where buyers may look to re-enter.
NZD/USD refreshes an over two-week high near 0.5700 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
The upbeat market mood amid a delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans has diminished the USD’s safe-haven demand.
The RBNZ is expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 bps to 3.75% on Wednesday.
The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh over two-week high around 0.5700. The Kiwi pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms its peers amid a cheerful market mood. The demand for risk-sensitive assets has increased as fears of an immediate global trade war evaporate.
On Thursday, United States (US) President Donald Trump didn’t reveal a detailed reciprocal tariff plan and guided his team to work on that. However, market participants anticipated that reciprocal tariffs would be announced after Trump’s tweet on his account at Truth Social that that “Three great weeks, perhaps the best ever, but today is the big one: reciprocal tariffs!!! Make America great again!!!", which came in early North American trading hours on Thursday.
An unexpected delay in Trump’s reciprocal plan diminished the USD’s safe-haven appeal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits an almost four-week low around 106.80.
Meanwhile, investors await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first monetary policy meeting of the year, which is scheduled on Wednesday. Traders expect the RBNZ to continue easing the monetary policy further at the current pace of 50 basis points (bps). Such a scenario will be unfavorable for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
NZD/USD rebounds strongly from the support zone plotted around 0.5500 on a weekly timeframe. However, the outlook of the Kiwi pair is still bearish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.5777 is sloping downwards.
The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) attempts to return inside the 40.00-60.00 range. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI fails to do the same.
The Kiwi pair could decline to near round-level supports of 0.5400 and 0.5300 if it breaks below the 13-year low of 0.5470.
On the flip side, a decisive break above the November 29 high of 0.5930 could drive the pair to the November 15 high of 0.5970 and the psychological resistance of 0.6000.
NZD/USD weekly chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a higher range of 0.5650/0.5700 against the US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5595 and 0.5720, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
NZD is likely to trade between 0.5595 and 0.5720
24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we noted that 'the outlook is unclear' and we held the view that NZD 'is likely to trade in a 0.5605/0.5675 range.' NZD then traded in a narrower range of 0.5623/0.5678. There has been a slight increase in momentum, but not enough to suggest a sustained rise. Today, NZD is more likely to trade in a higher range of 0.5650/0.5700. In other words, a clear break above 0.5700 is unlikely."
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from Tuesday (11 Feb, spot at 0.5640), wherein 'for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5595 and 0.5720.' Although there has been a slight increase in short-term upward momentum, NZD does not appear to be ready to break above 0.5720 just yet. We continue to expect NZD to trade in a range for now."
NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5680 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
US PPI inflation rose at a stronger pace than expected in January.
The RBNZ is expected to cut its OCR by 50 bps to 3.75% next week.
The NZD/USD pair trades stronger to around 0.5680 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens amid declining US yields across the curve and despite steady concerns over a global trade war. Later on Friday, the US Retail Sales will take center stage.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased in January, triggering the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would not be cutting interest rates before the second half of the year. Financial markets have pushed back rate cut bets to September from June, though some economists believe the window for additional policy easing has closed due to solid domestic demand and a steady labor market.
"The Q1 RBNZ survey of inflation expectations leaves plenty of room for the RBNZ to deliver a 50bps cut to 3.75% next week. Firms’ inflation expectations ns 2, 5 and 10 years out all dipped closer to 2%,” said BBH's FX analysts.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week, bringing its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.75%. The markets also anticipate a further 75 bps of reduction this year. The dovish expectation from the RBNZ might drag the Kiwi lower against the USD.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5680 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
US PPI inflation rose at a stronger pace than expected in January.
The RBNZ is expected to cut its OCR by 50 bps to 3.75% next week.
The NZD/USD pair trades stronger to around 0.5680 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens amid declining US yields across the curve and despite steady concerns over a global trade war. Later on Friday, the US Retail Sales will take center stage.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased in January, triggering the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would not be cutting interest rates before the second half of the year. Financial markets have pushed back rate cut bets to September from June, though some economists believe the window for additional policy easing has closed due to solid domestic demand and a steady labor market.
"The Q1 RBNZ survey of inflation expectations leaves plenty of room for the RBNZ to deliver a 50bps cut to 3.75% next week. Firms’ inflation expectations ns 2, 5 and 10 years out all dipped closer to 2%,” said BBH's FX analysts.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) next week, bringing its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.75%. The markets also anticipate a further 75 bps of reduction this year. The dovish expectation from the RBNZ might drag the Kiwi lower against the USD.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
NZD/USD edges up to 0.5650 on Thursday, but upside traction remains weak.
The pair continues to trade sideways above the 20-day SMA, failing to establish a clear trend.
While technical indicators show mixed signals, recent price action suggests the market is awaiting a catalyst for a decisive move.
The NZD/USD pair saw a mild increase on Thursday, rising to 0.5650 as buyers attempted to push the price higher. However, the move lacked conviction, with the pair struggling to gain traction above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This level has acted as a critical pivot point in recent sessions, and a decisive break above it remains elusive.
Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 53, signaling some improvement in buying interest. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat green bars, suggesting that bullish momentum has yet to take hold. Notably, despite the recent attempt at gains, price volatility has decreased, which could indicate that traders are waiting for fresh macroeconomic data or a shift in market sentiment before making their next move.
If buyers manage to sustain a move above 0.5650, further gains could be on the horizon, with the next resistance zone around 0.5680-0.5700. On the downside, failure to hold above the 20-day SMA may lead to renewed selling pressure, exposing the pair to declines toward the 0.5620 and 0.5600 support areas.
NZD/USD is firmer on broad USD weakness, BBH's FX analysts report.
NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads to weigh on NZD/USD
"The Q1 RBNZ survey of inflation expectations leaves plenty of room for the RBNZ to deliver a 50bps cut to 3.75% next week. Firms’ inflation expectations 2, 5 and 10 years out all dipped closer to 2%. NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD."
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