CFD Trading Rate Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar (GBPUSD)

• GBP/USD settled below 1.2900 on Monday as Sterling flows tighten up.
• UK wages and jobs figures are due during Tuesday’s London market session.
• Key US CPI inflation data looms ahead in the midweek hump.

GBP/USD skidded back into familiar lows on Monday, squirting back below the 1.2900 handle as Cable traders brace for the latest round of UK wages and jobs data due early Tuesday. The US market session was a quiet affair, with markets tilting firmly into risk appetite but still bolstering the US Dollar into the high side.

The London market session will kick off Tuesday with a fresh print in UK Average Earnings for September and UK Employment Change for the rolling three-month period ended in October. UK Average Earnings are expected to tick up to 3.9% for the annualized three-month period ended in September, up slightly from the previous period’s 3.8%. On net job additions, the UK is expected to shed around 50K jobs, down sharply from the previous period’s net increase of 373K. The UK’s Claimant Count Change is also expected to rise in October, forecast to increase to 30.5K MoM compared to the previous print of 27.9K.

The US markets were thin with many institutions dark for the Veteran’s Day holiday, however US investors are expected to return to the fold during the midweek market session with a fresh update to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures. October’s headline CPI is expected to accelerate to 2.6% YoY from the previous period’s 2.4%, with core CPI for the same period forecast to hold steady at 3.3% YoY. Thursday will follow up with US Producer Price Index (PPI) business-level inflation, which is also expected to tick higher to 2.9% YoY in October from 2.8%.

GBP/USD price forecast

The GBP/USD daily chart shows the pair trading just above a critical support level, marked by the 200-day EMA at 1.2860. This key moving average has been providing support, and the current candle’s proximity to this level suggests potential downside risk if the pair closes below it. The 50-day EMA, which sits around 1.3025, has been trending downward, indicating a bearish medium-term outlook. The price's position below this 50-day EMA also signals that bears maintain control, and any recovery toward this level could encounter strong resistance.

The MACD indicator below the chart supports the bearish bias, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating downward momentum. The histogram has turned slightly negative, reflecting a growing bearish sentiment. However, the MACD remains near the zero line, which suggests that momentum is not strongly established in either direction. If the histogram increases in size on the negative side, it would strengthen the bearish case and could lead to a deeper pullback.

In the near term, a decisive break below the 200-day EMA could trigger further losses, potentially opening the door toward the next support zone around 1.2750. On the other hand, if GBP/USD manages to hold above this key level and regains momentum, a bounce towards the 1.3000 mark and the 50-day EMA is possible. Overall, the pair appears vulnerable to downside risks, with bears likely eyeing a daily close below 1.2860 to confirm a more substantial bearish trend.

GBP/USD daily chart

• GBP/USD tilts downward; key support at 1.2833 could open path to 200-day SMA at 1.2816.
• Break below major support may shift bias bearish, targeting August low of 1.2664.
• Buyers need a close above 100-day SMA at 1.2992 to regain momentum toward 1.3099.

The Pound Sterling begins the week on the back foot, tumbling over 0.30% against the Greenback amid fears that US President-Elect Donald Trump might impose tariffs, deteriorated risk appetite. Hence, the risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair fell below the 1.2900 figure, trading at 1.2876.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD remains consolidated but slightly tilted to the downside. However, sellers must clear the November 6 swing low of 1.2833 to challenge the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2816. If those two support levels are cleared, the bias will shift bearish, and the pair can challenge major support at the August 9 daily low of 1.2664.

Conversely, GBP buyers need to lift the major above the 100-day SMA at 1.2992, shy of 1.30. Once surpassed, that could pave the way to testing the 50-day SMA at 1.3099.

Momentum remains bearishly biased as seen by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Still it consolidated at around familiar levels, hinting that sellers are not fully in charge.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily

The Pound Sterling (GBP) traded a touch softer last week, despite larger magnitude of decline seen in other FX including EUR, CHF. GBP was last at 1.2888 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

BoE keeps well GBP supported

“Hawkish BoE was one factor that kept GBP supported. Governor Bailey stressed on the need to make sure inflation stays close to target. Also, labour government’s budget may add to inflation, alongside Trump’s tariff plans. These reinforced our view that the BoE may have to stick with its gradual approach on lowering rates.

Daily momentum is flat while RSI shows little signal. Consolidation likely. Support here at 1.2870 (50% fibo) and 1.2820 (200 DMA). Resistance at 1.2990/1.30 (38.2% fibo retracement of Apr low to Sep high, 21, 100 DMAs), 1.3100 levels (50 DMA). Week’s data docket brings labour market data (Tuesday) and activity/GDP data (Friday).

Downward momentum has faded; outlook is unclear, and the Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a range between 1.2850 and 1.3055, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

GBP can trade in a range between 1.2850 and 1.3055

24-HOUR VIEW: “GBP dropped sharply to 1.2835 on Wednesday, and then rebounded. Yesterday (Thursday), we highlighted that GBP ‘could retest the 1.2835 low before stabilisation is likely.’ Our view was incorrect, as GBP soared, reaching a high of 1.3009. GBP then pulled back from the high, closing at 1.2986. The pullback in overbought conditions indicates that instead continuing to advance, GBP is more likely to trade sideways between 1.2930 and 1.3010.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We shifted from a neutral to negative GBP stance yesterday (07 Nov, spot at 1.2890), indicating that “the breach of the 1.2900 support suggests GBP could continue to weaken.’ However, we pointed out that ‘there is a weekly support at 1.2800.’ We added, ‘To maintain the rapid buildup in momentum, GBP must remain below 1.3000.’ Our view was invalidated quickly, as GBP staged a strong rebound that broke above 1.3000 (high has been 1.3009). The buildup in downward momentum has faded. The rapid but short-lived swings have resulted in an unclear outlook. For now, GBP could trade in a range, likely between 1.2850 and 1.3055.”

• GBP/USD softens to around 1.2910 in Monday’s early European session.  
• The negative view of the pair prevails below the 100-day EMA, with the bear RSI indicator. 
• The initial support level for the pair emerges at 1.2875; the immediate resistance level is located at 1.2983. 

The GBP/USD pair weakens to near 1.2910 during the early European session on Monday. The stronger US Dollar (USD) following Donald Trump’s election win continues to undermine the major pair as traders expect the inflationary impulses will keep the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting rates as much as they otherwise would have. 

On the other hand, the Bank of England (BoE) reiterated that “a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate. Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long.” Less dovish remarks from the UK central bank could help limit the INR’s losses in the near term. 

According to the daily chart, GBP/USD keeps the bearish vibe unchanged on the daily timeframe, with the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the downward momentum is reinforced by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is located below the midline around 43.85, indicating the path of least resistance is to the downside. 

The initial support level for GBP/USD emerges at 1.2875, the low of November 7. Further south, the next contention level is located in the 1.2850-1.2840 zone, representing the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and the low of October 31. 

On the bright side, the 100-day EMA at 1.2983 acts as an immediate resistance level for the major pair. The crucial upside barrier is seen at the 1.3000 psychological level. A decisive break above this level could see a rally to 1.3048, the high of November 6. 

GBP/USD daily chart

• GBP/USD remains on the defensive on Monday amid a bullish US Dollar.
• The BoE’s hawkish tilt underpins the GBP and limits losses for the major. 
• Traders look to this week’s UK/US macro releases from a fresh impetus.

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a softer note, albeit it lacks follow-through selling and remains confined in a range around the 1.2900 mark amid mixed fundamental cues. 

The US Dollar (USD) holds steady below a four-month high touched last week amid expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies would spur inflation and restrict the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to ease policy aggressively. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair, though the Bank of England's hawkish stance helps limit the downside. 

In fact, the BoE warned that the expansive Autumn Budget introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to fuel inflation, suggesting that it adopt a cautious stance toward rate cuts in 2025. Furthermore, the risk-on mood contributes to capping gains for the safe-haven Greenback and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair, warranting some caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. 

Investors also seem reluctant and might prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of important macro releases from the UK and the US. This week's economic docket features the UK jobs data on Tuesday, the US consumer inflation figures and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, followed by the Prelim Q3 UK GDP and the US Retail Sales on Friday. 

Apart from this, investors will take cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Friday. This, in turn, will determine the next leg of a directional move for the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, the underlying strong bullish tone surrounding the USD might continue to cap spot prices, suggesting that any attempted move-up could be seen as a selling opportunity.

• GBP/USD turns bearish, with RSI signaling potential for further downside below 1.2900.
• Key support lies at 1.2894; a break may lead to 200-day SMA at 1.2814.
• Upside capped by 100-day SMA at 1.2990; clearing 1.3000 could target 1.3105 resistance.

The Pound Sterling dropped from around 1.2980 on Friday as the Greenback recovered some ground following Thursday’s losses. Risk aversion has seen flows into the buck; hence, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2938, down over 0.37%.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Once the GBP/USD fell below the 1.3000 figure, it turned neutral to slightly downward biased. Although the pair edged towards 1.2988 on Thursday, failure to clear the 1.30 mark exacerbated the drop toward the mid 1.2900 – 1.3000 range.

Oscillators turned bearish as seen on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This, and price action, opened the door for further downside on the major.

The first key support would be the March 8 low of 1.2894. Once cleared, June’s 12 resistance turned support would be up next at 1.2880, ahead of dropping toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2814. Once surpassed up next would be the 1.2800 mark

Conversely, if buyers lift the exchange rate past the 100-day SMA at 1.2990, they could challenge 1.3000. If surpassed, the next stop would be the confluence of the October 15 high and the 50-DMA at 1.3105.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily

Instead of continuing to advance, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is more likely to trade sideways between 1.2930 and 1.3010. In the longer run, downward momentum has faded; outlook is unclear, and GBP could trade in a range between 1.2850 and 1.3055, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Short-lived swings result in an unclear outlook

24-HOUR VIEW: “GBP dropped sharply to 1.2835 on Wednesday, and then rebounded. Yesterday (Thursday), we highlighted that GBP ‘could retest the 1.2835 low before stabilisation is likely.’ Our view was incorrect, as GBP soared, reaching a high of 1.3009. GBP then pulled back from the high, closing at 1.2986. The pullback in overbought conditions indicates that instead continuing to advance, GBP is more likely to trade sideways between 1.2930 and 1.3010.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We shifted from a neutral to negative GBP stance yesterday (07 Nov, spot at 1.2890), indicating that ‘the breach of the 1.2900 support suggests GBP could continue to weaken.’ However, we pointed out that ‘there is a weekly support at 1.2800.’ We added, ‘To maintain the rapid buildup in momentum, GBP must remain below 1.3000.’ Our view was invalidated quickly, as GBP staged a strong rebound that broke above 1.3000 (high has been 1.3009). The buildup in downward momentum has faded. The rapid but short-lived swings have resulted in an unclear outlook. For now, GBP could trade in a range, likely between 1.2850 and 1.3055.”

• GBP/USD edges lower on Friday amid the emergence of some USD dip-buying.
• The BoE’s hawkish tilt could underpin the GBP and limit losses for the major.
• The technical setup favors bears and supports prospects for a further downfall.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to build on the previous day's positive move and faces rejection near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2965-1.2960 region, down 0.15% for the day amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, though the downside seems limited on the back of the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish stance.

In fact, the BoE warned that the expansive Autumn Budget introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to fuel inflation, suggesting that it adopt a cautious stance toward rate cuts in 2025. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell failed to offer any cues that the central bank was likely to pause rate cuts in the near term. This leads to a further decline in the US Treasury bond yields and might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, which, in turn, should offer support to the GBP/USD pair. 

From a technical perspective, the range-bound price action witnessed over the past three weeks or so could be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent pullback from the highest level since February 2022. Moreover, failure to build on this week's recovery from a nearly three-month low, around the 1.2835 region, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. The outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory.

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 1.2900 mark before positioning for a fallback towards the 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 1.2815 region. This is followed by the 1.2800 round figure, which if broken should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move and drag the GBP/USD pair to the 1.2765 intermediate support en route to the 1.2700 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the August monthly swing low, around the 1.2665 area.

On the flip side, bulls need to wait for a move beyond the 100-day SMA and the 1.3000 psychological mark before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move. The GBP/USD pair might then climb to the 1.3070 supply zone and then aim to reclaim the 1.3100 mark. Some follow-through buying will suggest that a one-month-old corrective decline has run its course and shift the near-term bias back in favor of bullish traders.

GBP/USD daily chart

• GBP/USD loses ground to near 1.2975 in Friday’s Asian session. 
• The Fed cuts interest rates by a quarter point at the November meeting, as widely expected. 
• The BOE decided to cut the benchmark rate to 4.75% at its November meeting on Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair edges lower to around 1.2975 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Pound Sterling weakens after the Bank of England (BoE) reduced its interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday. Traders will take more cues from the advanced US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Michelle Bowman’s speech later on Friday.

After a jumbo half percentage point reduction in September, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 4.50%-4.75% at its November meeting on Thursday. Fed officials have justified the easing mode for policy as they view supporting employment as becoming at least as much of a priority as arresting inflation.

Expectations for a December interest rate cut remained strong after the Fed cut its rates in November. The chance of a quarter-point December rate cut rose to more than 68% following the Fed meeting, while the odds of a pause dropped to nearly 32%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 25 bps while raising its inflation forecast. This comes after Labour's released UK budget, which casts doubt on future policy easing. The UK central bank has trimmed the interest rate for the second time this year after it began its easing cycle in August. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said during the press conference that the central bank needs to retain a “gradual approach” to policy easing.

• GBP/USD holds at 1.2963 after Fed's unanimous 25 bps rate cut.
• Fed acknowledges solid growth and easing labor conditions; inflation remains “somewhat elevated.”
• Powell’s upcoming remarks could signal Fed’s stance on future easing amid balanced risks.

The GBP/USD barely moved after the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.50%—4.75% range. At the time of writing, the pair is at 1.2963, up 0.64%, as traders brace for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.

Fed trims rates to 4.50%-4.75% range, highlights economic resilience and cautious inflation progress

The statement mentions that Fed officials continued to see the economy expand solidly, although labor market conditions had eased. Regarding inflation, they noted that it “has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.”

Fed policymakers added that the risks of achieving its dual mandate “are roughly in balance,” adding that the economic outlook is uncertain. They will remain attentive to the risks of both sides of the dual mandate.

Regarding the balance sheet, they would continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities.

When making future decisions, the FOMC will consider incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. It is worth noting that the decision was unanimous, as Governor Michelle Bowman supported the rate cut.

Next would be the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 14:00 ET.

GBPUSD Price Chart – Daily

The pair barely moved, though it remained below the confluence of the 20- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 1.2982-87. Powell's hawkish message could push the GBP/USD lower, first to 1.2950, ahead of the 1.2900 figure.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD could test the daily high at 1.3009.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.2835 low; for now, it does not appear to have enough momentum to break below 1.2800. In the longer run, breach of the 1.2900 support suggest GBP could continue to weaken but note that there is a weekly support at 1.2800, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Can fall all the way to the weekly support at 1.2800

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we highlighted that GBP could trade in a broad range of 1.2900/1.3040. We did not expect GBP to plunge to a low of 1.2835. GBP rebounded from the low and closed at 1.2880 (-1.24%). While the weakness has not stabilised, downward momentum has slowed to an extent. Today, GBP could retest the 1.2835 low before stabilisation is likely. For now, it does appear to have enough momentum to break the significant support level at 1.2800. Resistance is at 1.2930; a breach of 1.2960 would mean that the weakness has stabilised.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from two days ago (05 Nov, spot at 1.2955), wherein GBP ‘is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range for the time being.’ Yesterday, it broke below the strong support at 1.2900, reaching a low of 1.2835. The breach of the support suggest that GBP could continue to weaken. However, note that 1.2800 is a weekly support level. To maintain the rapid buildup in momentum, GBP must remain below 1.3000.”

• GBP/USD scales higher amid some repositioning ahead of key central bank event risks. 
• The BoE and the Fed are due to announce their respective policy decision later today. 
• The fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing bullish bets around the pair.

The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from its lowest level since mid-August, around the 1.2835-1.2830 region touched the previous day. Spot prices now look to build on the momentum beyond the 1.2900 mark as the market attention shifts to key central bank event risks. 

The Bank of England (BoE) will announce its policy decision later today and is widely expected to lower interest rates for the second time this year on the back of slowing inflation. That said, expectations that UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' first budget would boost inflation, and cause the BoE to cut interest rates more slowly, offering some support to the British Pound (GBP). This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, turn out to be key factors pushing the GBP/USD pair higher. 

However, any meaningful USD corrective slide, from a four-month top touched on Wednesday, seems elusive amid optimism about higher growth and inflation under Donald Trump's second presidency, which could reduce the pace of interest rate cuts. Hence, the outcome of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting, along with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference will play a key role in influencing the USD. 

In the meantime, the return of the so-called Trump trade keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated near a multi-month peak. This, in turn, should act as a tailwind for the Greenback and cap the upside for the GBP/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom. Meanwhile, bearish traders need to wait for a breakdown below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets.

• GBP/USD fell back below the 1.2900 level as markets pivot into the Greenback.
• Looming BoE rate cut provides little support for Cable.
• Fed due to deliver another rate cut in lockstep with BoE.

GBP/USD tumbled back below the 1.2900 handle on Wednesday as markets splurged on Greenback bids following the one-sided outcome of the US presidential election. The Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are both due to deliver matching quarter-point rate cuts on Thursday.

The US presidential election still isn’t over, and some key battlegrounds will take some time before a final call is made. Still, markets are confident that the outcome has been decided, with Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump set to win 276 electoral votes. With the Republicans also set to win back both the US Senate and Congress, investors are anticipating a pro-growth environment with more deregulation as well as additional or extended business tax cuts. 

Despite a steady stream of inflationary rhetoric from former President Donald Trump on the campaign trail, investors are viewing a Trump win as a net positive for markets, piling into risk assets as well as the Greenback during the midweek market session.

The BoE’s latest rate call, slated for Thursday, is expected to deliver another quarter-point cut to investors. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote seven-to-two to reduce the BoE’s main reference rate to 4.75% from the current 5.0%.

Another Fed rate call looms ahead this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to deliver another quarter-point cut to interest rates on Thursday, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down 25 bps to 4.75%. The Fed Funds Rate peaked at 5.5% in July of 2023, and investors have been clamoring for a return to a low interest rate environment that has become familiar territory since US interest rates clattered to an all-time low near 0% in early 2009.

The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index is waiting in the wings and slated for release on Friday. Investors expect November’s UoM sentiment indicator to climb to a six-month high of 71.0 from the previous month’s 70.5.

GBP/USD price forecast

The GBP/USD daily chart reveals a bearish sentiment as the currency pair tests support around the 200-day EMA, which is currently situated at 1.2858. After an attempt to break above the 50-day EMA (currently at 1.3038), GBP/USD faced a sharp rejection, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. The strong red candle on the latest trading day suggests that the bulls struggled to sustain momentum above 1.3000, leading to a decisive pullback. This price action underscores the significance of the 1.2850-1.2900 zone as a key support area, as a break below it could signal further downside.

Additionally, the MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart is displaying a bearish crossover, as the MACD line has dipped below the signal line. The histogram bars have turned red, reinforcing the downward momentum. Although the MACD is still close to the zero line, suggesting a potentially limited downside, the negative sentiment persists. If the MACD momentum accelerates further into negative territory, it would strengthen the bearish outlook for the GBP/USD pair, likely pushing prices toward lower support levels around 1.2700.

In the event of a bounce from the 200-day EMA, the bulls would need to reclaim the 50-day EMA at 1.3038 to shift the short-term bias back to bullish. A close above this level could invite further buying interest, potentially targeting the recent high around 1.3300. However, with the recent bearish crossover in the MACD and price action failing to sustain above 1.3000, the path of least resistance appears to be downward. Traders should monitor the 1.2850 level closely, as a decisive break below could accelerate selling pressure, with the pair likely targeting the 1.2700 handle in the coming sessions.

GBP/USD daily chart

• GBP/USD breaches key 1.2850 level; eyes 200-day SMA support at 1.2811.
• Close below 200-day SMA may lead to further losses, with next support at 1.2664.
• RSI momentum points to bearish control as election fallout pressures Pound.

The Pound Sterling plunged over 1.20% against the US Dollar on Wednesday after former US President Donald Trump won the 2024 Presidential election. Fears of tariffs and protectionist policies weighed on Cable, which is having its worst daily loss since October 3. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.2881 after reaching a daily high of 1.3047.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD finally broke below the 1.2850 area and hit a daily low of 1.2833 but still fell shy of testing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.2811. If the pair achieves a daily close below the 200-day SMA, this will cement its bearish bias, opening the door to test 1.2800. GBP/USD would extend its losses once cleared, and the next support would be seen at 1.2664, the August 8 swing low, followed by the 1.2600 mark.

For a bullish scenario, the GBP/USD must surpass the 1.2900 figure and the 100-day SMA at 1.2985.

Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicated further downside. The RSI made a U-turn, falling steeper, an indication that sellers are in charge.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily

The Pound Sterling (GBP) could trade in a choppy and broad range of 1.2900/1.3040. In the longer run, for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes.

GBP is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp rise in GBP that sent it to a high of 1.3043 was surprising (we were expecting range trading). GBP was unable to hold on to its gains, as it plunged today. The outlook is unclear after the wide fluctuations. Further choppy trading is not ruled, likely within a broad 1.2910/1.3040 range.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (05 Nov, spot at 1.2955), we pointed out that ‘the recent buildup in downward momentum has faded.’ We expect GBP to ‘trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range for the time being.’ While GBP rose above 1.3030 (high of 1.3043), it plummeted from the high. The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a 1.2900/1.3030 range.”

• GBP/USD loses ground due to increased Trump trade as exit polls favor the Republican Party.
• The prediction platforms indicate former President Donald Trump currently holds an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris.
• Traders will turn their attention to the interest rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on Thursday.

GBP/USD offers its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 1.2940 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum on strengthening Trump trades as the voting favored Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

Polling data indicate a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding an edge. On Kalshi, Trump shows a strong 57% to 43% lead over Harris, while on Polymarket, the gap is slightly wider, with Trump at 60.7% and Harris at 39.5%. These figures reflect growing support for Trump as election day approaches, but the race remains competitive.

Early exit polls in Georgia, one of the first states with available data, indicate a tilt toward Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. With 16 electoral votes at stake, preliminary results suggest Trump has about a 10% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although this estimate is based on less than 1% of votes counted, according to The Washington Post.

Preliminary results from the Pennsylvania exit polls show a lead for Harris, according to CBC News. With approximately 8% of the expected votes counted, Kamala has secured a 71% majority. The state has 19 electoral votes at stake.

Follow our live coverage: Trump or Harris? Who will be the 47th President of the US and how will markets react?

Traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision set for Thursday, with a widespread expectation of a 25 basis point cut. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.4% probability of a quarter-point rate reduction at the Fed's November meeting, reflecting strong market anticipation of a modest cut.

On the GBP front, the Bank of England's (BoE) upcoming rate decision, also scheduled for Thursday, is expected to result in another quarter-point reduction. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is anticipated to vote 7-2 in favor of lowering the main reference rate to 4.75% from the current 5.0%.

• GBP/USD rallied 0.65% on Tuesday as markets brace for US presidential election results.
• Central bank double-header due this week with 25 bps rate trims expected from both the US and the UK.
• BoE, Fed both expected to drop reference rates down to 4.75%.

GBP/USD found the gas pedal on Tuesday, ramping up another two-thirds of a percent and clawing back above the 1.3000 handle as markets brace for what is likely to be a messy outcome from the US presidential election. Widely-anticipated rate cuts are also due from both the Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve (Fed) this week, giving investors plenty to chew on in what is set to be one of the busiest weeks of the rest of the trading year.

US election odds have both candidates neck-and-neck in a dead-heat race for the Presidency, with former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris polling within 5% of each other, depending on which poll results you reference. Equity investors, tech sector addicts specifically, appear to broadly believe former President Trump to be the preferred stock-friendly candidate, an odd choice considering the Republican candidate has strongly voiced support of a return to the Smoot-Hawley tariff era of US history. Trump has regularly suggested stiff tariffs across the board on all imported goods into the US, an incredibly inflationary economic policy proposal.

The BoE’s latest rate call, slated for Thursday, is expected to deliver another quarter-point cut to investors. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote seven-to-two to reduce the BoE’s main reference rate to 4.75% from the current 5.0%.

Another Fed rate call looms ahead this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to deliver another quarter-point cut to interest rates on Thursday, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down 25 bps to 4.75%. The Fed Funds Rate peaked at 5.5% in July of 2023, and investors have been clamoring for a return to a low interest rate environment that has become familiar territory since US interest rates clattered to an all-time low near 0% in early 2009.

The University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index is waiting in the wings and slated for release on Friday. Investors expect November’s UoM sentiment indicator to climb to a six-month high of 71.0 from the previous month’s 70.5.

GBP/USD price forecast

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading just above the 1.3000 psychological level, showcasing a promising bullish rebound after a recent dip towards the 1.2850 support area. This recovery is marked by a decisive bounce off the 200-day EMA (1.2858), which acted as a strong support level, indicating buyers are stepping in to defend this area. The 50-day EMA, positioned slightly above at 1.3045, is now in focus as the pair edges higher, presenting a potential resistance zone. If GBP/USD can sustain its current momentum and clear the 50-day EMA, it could pave the way for further gains in the near term.

The MACD indicator at the bottom of the chart reflects a bullish crossover with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This crossover is typically seen as a signal of upward momentum, suggesting that the bullish sentiment may continue in the short term. Moreover, the histogram has shifted to the positive side, indicating that bullish momentum is gaining traction. However, traders should watch for any significant resistance near the 1.3050 area, as this level aligns with the 50-day EMA and could act as a short-term barrier.

Looking ahead, a sustained move above the 50-day EMA may open the door for GBP/USD to test the next resistance around 1.3150. Conversely, if the pair fails to hold above 1.3000, it may retest the 200-day EMA support around 1.2850. A break below this level could lead to further downside pressure, potentially targeting the 1.2700 level. Overall, GBP/USD’s technical outlook leans cautiously bullish in the near term, but it remains susceptible to volatility and possible reversals, especially around key moving averages.

GBP/USD daily chart

• GBP/USD clears 100-day SMA; aims for October’s 30 high of 1.3047.
• Buyers may push toward 1.3100, with 50-day SMA resistance at 1.3118.
• Failure to hold 1.3000 could see the pair retreat to 1.2908 support level.

The Pound Sterling advanced against the Greenback during the North American session, with buyers reclaiming the 1.3000 figure and clearing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance at 1.2982. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3011, up by 0.43%.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After briefly consolidating on Monday, the GBP/USD cleared the 1.3000 figure, though it remains slightly tilted to the downside. Buyers would need to regain October’s 30 swing high of 1.3047 to take control and push the pair toward 1.3100. Once done and those levels are removed, the next resistance would be the 50-day SMA at 1.3118.

On the other hand, sellers would need to drag the GBP/USD below 1.3000 and the 100-day SMA for a bearish resumption. In that outcome, the next support would be the October 24 and 25 low of 1.2908, followed by the October 31 pivot low of 1.2843 ahead of the 200-day SMA at 1.2810.

Oscillators suggest that bulls are gathering steam, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) aiming up. However, it remains shy of cracking its 50 neutral line. Therefore, caution is warranted.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily