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CFD Trading Rate Euro vs US Dollar (EURUSD)

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Ask
Change (%)
Date/Time (GMT 0)
Over the past 10 days
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  • 07.03.2024 02:56
    EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0900 ahead of ECB interest rate decision
    • EUR/USD sticks to a psychological level on Thursday post recent gains.
    • ECB is expected to maintain the Rate on Deposit Facility at 4.0%.
    • Fed Chair Powell has indicated the readiness to reduce interest rates at some point this year.

    EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0900 during the Asian session on Thursday, retracing slightly from its six-week high of 1.0915 reached in the prior session following dovish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell during his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its Monetary Policy Decision later in the day.

    The ECB is anticipated to maintain the Rate on Deposit Facility at 4.0%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. Alongside this decision, the ECB will release updated economic forecasts. ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks during the post-meeting press conference will be closely scrutinized for insights into the central bank's monetary policy stance and economic outlook.

    Moreover, the Euro possibly found some support from Eurozone Retail Sales figures released on Wednesday, which were less negative than anticipated. In January, Eurostat reported that the Eurozone retail sector continued to contract annually by 1%, remaining below the anticipated 1.3% decline. This follows a 0.5% decrease in December. However, there was a slight improvement in month-on-month Retail Sales, with a 0.1% rise as forecasted, compared to the previous contraction of 0.6%.

    Federal Reserve Chair Powell has signaled the readiness of the US central bank to reduce borrowing costs "at some point this year," as indicated in the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. However, the recent escalation of the regional banking crisis in the United States (US) may accelerate this timeline. Investors are eagerly awaiting additional insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) faced a downturn, primarily influenced by reduced US Treasury yields. Weaker employment data from the United States (US) added to the downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD). February's US ADP Employment Change was reported at 140K, slightly below the anticipated 150K but an improvement from the previous 111K. Additionally, January's US JOLTS Job Openings declined to 8.863M from December's 9.026M, missing the market forecast of 8.900M. Friday's release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor report will be eyed next.

     

  • 06.03.2024 21:29
    EUR/USD tests five-week high after Fed Powell affirms policy loosening likely this year
    • Fed Chair Powell doesn’t foresee high risk of recession this year.
    • European Retail Sales figures beat expectations.
    • US labor numbers eased ahead of Friday’s NFP.

    EUR/USD tested into its highest bids since late January, briefly crossing 1.0900 to tap 1.0915 before settling back slightly but still well into the green for Wednesday. The pair is on pace to close in the green for a fourth consecutive trading day as markets gear up for another outing from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor report.

    Fed Chair Powell will be speaking again on Thursday for the second half of two-day testimony before the US Congressional House Financial Services Committee. Friday’s US NFP jobs additions figure is expected to ease to 200K in February, down from January’s 11-month peak of 353K. Before Friday’s NFP, markets will be looking out for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest rate call, due at 13:15 GMT on Thursday.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD finds room up top after Fed talks down Greenback

    • Pan-European Retail Sales fell less than expected for the year ended January, printing at -1.0% compared to the forecast -1.3%, but still down from the previous print of -0.5% (revised up slightly from -0.8%).
    • US ADP Employment Change for February came in at 140K, below the forecast 150K but still higher than the previous month’s 111K, which was also revised higher from 107K.
    • Fed Chair Powell: 
      • There is no reason to think the economy is in or faces significant near-term risk of recession.
      • Fed sees ongoing solid growth, should continue moving forward.
      • Would like to have more confidence on inflation. Fed has some confidence but needs more.
      • Jerome Powell Speech: Fed Chair doesn't see elevated risk of recession

    Euro price today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
    USD   -0.37% -0.22% -0.57% -0.91% -0.41% -0.67% -0.19%
    EUR 0.37%   0.15% -0.19% -0.53% -0.04% -0.28% 0.19%
    GBP 0.22% -0.15%   -0.34% -0.67% -0.18% -0.44% 0.04%
    CAD 0.56% 0.21% 0.33%   -0.32% 0.15% -0.10% 0.37%
    AUD 0.90% 0.54% 0.68% 0.33%   0.49% 0.23% 0.72%
    JPY 0.41% 0.03% 0.17% -0.15% -0.49%   -0.26% 0.20%
    NZD 0.65% 0.30% 0.42% 0.10% -0.24% 0.25%   0.49%
    CHF 0.19% -0.19% -0.04% -0.38% -0.71% -0.23% -0.48%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

    Technical analysis: EUR/USD attempts to push off of recent 1.0850 congestion

    EUR/USD saw a five-week high at 1.0915 on Wednesday, climbing roughly two-thirds of a percent over the day to end the day just below 1.0900. Intraday price action broke through a near-term resistance zone to pierce the 1.0900 handle.

    The pair is set to close in the green for a fourth straight trading day, and EUR/USD has risen nearly 2% from the last swing low into the 1.0700 handle.

    EUR/USD hourly chart

    EUR/USD daily chart

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 06.03.2024 14:56
    EUR/USD rises on soft ADP jobs data, Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks
    • EUR/USD climbs 0.42%, spurred by ADP data and Powell’s remarks.
    • US ADP February’s report was solid at 140K, improved compared to January, but missed estimates.
    • Fed’s Powell remarks in testimony at Capitol Hill hint at no immediate rate cuts.

    The Euro extended its gains against the US Dollar early during the North American session, sponsored by softer-than-expected ADP jobs report in the United States (US). Thus, the EUR/USD edges up 0.42% and trades at 1.0881 after hitting a two-week high of 1.0887.

    EUR/USD hits two-week peak, gains momentum ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision

    In February, private companies hired fewer people than the 150K expected, with figures increasing by 140K. Nevertheless, compared to January’s 111K reading, the jobs market remains strong, as noted by Nela Richardson, chief economist of ADP. Richardson said “Job gains remain solid. Pay gains are trending lower but are still above inflation.”

    Nevertheless, the data was overshadowed by prepared remarks that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver at Capitol Hill. He said the Fed doesn’t expect it will be appropriate to reduce rates until they [Fed] have greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably towards 2%.

    Powell said rates had peaked, acknowledged the progress on inflation, and added that the current restrictive stance puts downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. He said they would ease policy at some point in the year, though they would assess incoming data. He added that the risks to achieving the Fed’s dual goal are moving into better balance.

    Following the data and Fed’s Powell remarks, the EUR/USD rose sharply. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of six other currencies against the buck, tumbled more than 0.30% to 103.47. US Treasury bond yields are diving across the short and long ends of the curve.

    In addition, traders brace for the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday, with analysts expecting no change to their monetary policy. However, traders would look for hints, about a possible rate cut towards the June meeting.

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The pair has broken above a downslope resistance trendline drawn from January’s highs and the 50-day moving average (DMA) at around 1.0860/70, opening the door to challenge 1.0900. Once that level is cleared, the next resistance emerges at 1.0932, the January 24 swing high, followed by the January 11 high at 1.0999, shy of 1.10. On the other hand, if prices fail to stay above the 1.0860 area, look for a deeper pullback towards the confluence of the 100 and 200-DMAs at around 1.0831/34 before testing 1.0800.

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 06.03.2024 14:32
    EUR/USD set to move to 1.1400 by year-end – ING

    The FX market continues to be an extension of market expectations on Fed policy. Economists at ING explain why their medium-term FX views remain broadly unchanged and centred around a Dollar depreciation.

    A Dollar decline is delayed, not deterred

    The Dollar is an expensive sell, especially after the recent rise in US treasury yields. In the near term, we could see it hold on to February's gains, but our call for larger Fed rate cuts than market pricing means we still favour a bearish USD profile for the remainder of the year.

    We expect to see EUR/USD move to 1.1400 by year-end, as a moderately-sized European Central Bank easing package (75 bps versus 100 bps priced in) should also favour a largely Fed-led EUR:USD front-end rate convergence.

     

  • 06.03.2024 12:58
    EUR/USD to enjoy further gains towards 1.1000/1.1100 on a sustained push through 1.0890 – Scotiabank

    EUR/USD retests upper 1.0800s. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Bullish technical momentum builds

    The technical trend in the EUR/USD pair remains positive, even with gains still blocked by resistance at 1.0880/1.0890. 

    Steady gains from the mid-February low have the support of strong, bullish momentum on the intraday and daily DMI studies. The weekly DMI is moving into bullish territory as well.

    A daily close above 1.0865 (38.2% Fib retracement of the December/February selloff) or a clear and sustained push through 1.0890 should drive more EUR gains towards 1.1000/1.1100. 

    Support is 1.0840 and 1.0800.

     

  • 06.03.2024 09:20
    EUR/USD edges up after unexpected rise in German trade surplus
    • Germany’s trade surplus comes out much higher than expected, signaling increased Euro demand for its exports.
    • The Euro is the most popular currency amongst global central banks, according to a recent survey. 
    • The EUR/USD price charts show an extension of the short-term uptrend. 

    The EUR/USD pair is seeing a slight lift on Wednesday, trading in the 1.0860s against the US Dollar (USD), just after the release of strong German trade data, which showed a greater-than-expected rise in the country’s trade surplus. 

    Germany’s Trade Balance rose to €27.8 billion in January, beating estimates of €21.5 billion and the previous surplus of €23.3 billion, according to data from Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland (SBD).

    The release suggests more demand for Euros from foreign importers of German goods. It follows strong Eurozone PMI data released on Tuesday, and contrasts with lackluster US factory and PMI data, which has taken the wind out of the Dollar’s sails. 

    Euro gains appeal

    The Euro is the most popular currency among global central banks, the big fish players in the currency markets, according to a recent survey by a London-based think tank. 

    Roughly 15 central banks anticipate increasing their reserves of Euros in 2024-25, according to a survey of 75 major central bank reserve managers by the think tank OMFIF. 

    “Net demand was higher than for any other currency during the period and a jump from the 2021 and 2022 surveys of reserve managers controlling nearly $5 trillion,” said a report by Reuters, citing the survey. 

    The resurfacing of Eurozone bond yields into positive territory after years of negative rates, as well as a relatively more robust outlook going forward – despite expectations of interest rate cuts – was the reason given by central bankers for their pursuit of the Euro.  

    On the Horizon

    Eurozone Retail Sales data is released later today at 10:00 GMT and expected to show a slide of 1.3% in January YoY but a 0.1% rise MoM. A much higher than expected reading would be positive for the Euro. 

    The key event for the week, however, is the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday. Analysts are looking for a shift in communication: so far the ECB has kept schtum about when it anticipates cutting rates, in contrast with less reserved peers. However, some analysts are saying March could be the time it throws caution to the wind. 

    Euro Technical Analysis: Short-term uptrend continues

    The EUR/USD pair continues its half-hearted recovery from the February lows. The longer-term trend is sideways and difficult to forecast – short-term, however, the peaks and troughs are rising, suggesting a tentative uptrend is in progress and slightly favoring bulls. 

    Euro vs US Dollar: 4-hour chart

    The pair is currently encountering resistance from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0859 but seems to be slowly penetrating it and establishing a foothold above. 

    Euro vs US Dollar: 1-day chart

    The next key hurdle is the 1.0888 February high. If it can break above that level it will continue the short-term uptrend. After that the next target is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the early 2024 decline, at 1.0918, followed by the 61.8% retracement at 1.0972. 

    A break beneath the 1.0795 lows would spoil the buyer’s party and indicate a vulnerability to break down. 

    Euro FAQs

    What is the Euro?

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
    EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
    The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
    The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
    Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
    A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
    Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
    If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

  • 06.03.2024 08:17
    EUR/USD will still struggle to sustain a break over 1.0900 – ING

    EUR/USD enjoyed a small rally on Tuesday. Economists at ING analyze the world’s most popular currency pair outlook.

    Biding time ahead of the ECB

    The low volatility environment makes for a very sticky spot market and a breakout is hard to achieve.

    We think there are some downside risks to the Euro from Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. As such, should today's US event risk prove a Dollar negative, we think the EUR/USD pair will still struggle to sustain a break over 1.0900.

     

  • 06.03.2024 04:26
    EUR/USD consolidates around mid-1.0800s ahead of US data, Fed’s Powell
    • EUR/USD ticks lower on Wednesday, though the downside remains cushioned.
    • Bets for a June Fed rate cut weigh o the USD and lend some support to the pair.
    • Traders now look to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony ahead of the ECB on Thursday.

    The EUR/USD pair extends its consolidative price move for the second straight day on Wednesday and remains confined in a narrow band around mid-1.0800s through the Asian session.

    Spot prices did get a minor lift on Tuesday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness led by the disappointing release of the US ISM Services PMI, though the momentum faltered near the 1.0875 region, or over a one-week high. Traders seem reluctant to place aggressive USD bearish bets and prefer to wait for more clarity about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path. Hence, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the EUR/USD pair.

    Apart from this, traders on Wednesday will take cues from the US macro data – the ADP report on private-sector employment and JOLTS Job Openings data. The focus will then shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday and the key US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the ECB might continue to underpin the shared currency and help limit any corrective decline for the EUR/USD pair.

    From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures ahead of the 1.0900 mark warrant caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the said handle before traders start positioning for an extension of the EUR/USD pair's goodish recovery move from sub-1.0700 levels, or the YTD low touched on February 14. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.  

     

  • 05.03.2024 19:37
    EUR/USD grinds to flat after market absorbs US PMI miss
    • EUR/USD rotates around 1.0850 once more.
    • US data missed expectations, briefly weakening the US Dollar.
    • European PMIs broadly beat, but Europe’s PPI missed.

    EUR/USD drove into a fresh intraday high of 1.0876 on Tuesday but flopped back to the day’s opening bids after the market readjusted following a worse-than-expected print in the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

    Europe’s final HCOB Composite PMI for February printed above expectations after finding additional calculation gains over the preliminary print. However, the pan-European Producer Price Index (PPI) failed to recover as markets had expected. Tuesday’s US PMI missed expectations, and markets will be pivoting to keep an eye out for key US labor figures and a two-day appearance from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD returns to midrange after cycling on Tuesday

    • Europe’s final HCOB Services PMI for February rose to 49.2 versus the expected hold at the preliminary print of 48.9.
    • The euro area’s January MoM final PPI missed the mark, holding at the preliminary -0.9% versus the expected rebound to -0.1%.
    • The US ISM Services PMI for February fell faster than expected, declining to 52.6 versus the forecasted downtick to 53.0 from 53.4.
    • US Factory Orders in January also saw accelerated declines, printing at -3.6% versus the forecast of -2.9%. The previous month saw a downside revision to -0.3% from 0.2%.
    • EU Retail Sales are due early Wednesday, with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next rate call slated for Thursday.
    • Fed chairman Jerome Powell speaks on both Wednesday and Thursday, testifying before the US government’s House Financial Services Committee.
    • US ADP Employment Change figures also due Wednesday as a precursor to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print.

    Euro price today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

      USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
    USD   -0.01% -0.13% 0.09% 0.01% -0.32% 0.14% -0.19%
    EUR 0.00%   -0.13% 0.09% -0.02% -0.31% 0.13% -0.16%
    GBP 0.13% 0.13%   0.21% 0.10% -0.18% 0.27% -0.04%
    CAD -0.08% -0.09% -0.22%   -0.14% -0.40% 0.04% -0.25%
    AUD 0.01% 0.02% -0.12% 0.12%   -0.28% 0.15% -0.14%
    JPY 0.32% 0.32% 0.16% 0.42% 0.29%   0.46% 0.14%
    NZD -0.14% -0.16% -0.28% -0.06% -0.15% -0.48%   -0.29%
    CHF 0.17% 0.16% 0.03% 0.27% 0.18% -0.15% 0.31%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

    Technical analysis: EUR/USD remains trapped near 1.0850

    EUR/USD continues to struggle to find adequate bullish momentum to peel the pair off its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0830, and intraday bids are stuck near 1.0850. Topside gains are capped by a 50-day SMA grinding into a congestion pattern with the 200-day SMA.

    The pair has struggled to chalk in additional gains after recovering from the last swing low into 1.0700. Growing risk of a technical ceiling priced in below 1.0900 leaves the pair exposed to intraday congestion. Tuesday’s brief rally into 1.0875 saw a sharp pullback, and the pair has a technical floor baked in between 1.0800 and 1.0810.

    EUR/USD hourly chart

    EUR/USD daily chart

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 05.03.2024 15:29
    EUR/USD edges higher amid US data miss, ECB’s decision
    • EUR/USD is buoyed by a weaker US Dollar following underwhelming US services sector performance.
    • The Eurozone's strong services and composite PMI readings suggest a slow yet positive economic recovery despite ongoing risks.
    • Market expectations shift, now forecasting close to 1% in Fed rate cuts by the end of 2024, as attention turns to an imminent ECB policy meeting.

    During the North American session, the Euro extended its gains of more than 0.10% as the Greenback weakness in early Tuesday trading. After meandering at around the day’s lows of 1.0840, weaker than expected US data, the EUR/USD trades at around 1.0870.

    Greenback dips on weak PMI figures, traders adjust Fed rate cuts expectations

    The US economic calendar featured the release of the S&P Global Services PMI, followed by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI. The former rose to 52.3, below January 52.5, while the Composite PMI, which encompasses manufacturing and services activity, was 53.8, missing estimates and the previous reading of 54.2.

    Lately, the ISM Services PMI stood at 52.6, down from 53.4 and below the consensus of 53, triggering a downward reaction on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of six currencies against the buck, dropped to an eight-day low of 103.58 on the release. Yet, it has paired some of its losses but remains negative at 103.69, down 0.13%.

    Across the pond, the Eurozone (EU) HCOB Flash PMIs for Services and Composite were released. The Services Index rose 50.2, above expectations of 50.0, while the Composite improved to 49.2 from the 48.9 expected. Although the data suggests the EU’s economy is improving, downside risks remain. Even though the data was mixed, the EUR/USD failed to gain steam as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on Thursday.

    Given the fundamental backdrop, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut expectations continued to adjust. Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows traders estimate 99 basis points (bps) of easing toward the end of 2024.

    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The EUR/USD is tilted to the upside, sitting above all the daily moving averages (DMAs). If buyers reclaim 1.0900, expect further gains, with bulls targeting a downslope resistance trendline at 1.0975/85, ahead of 1.1000. On the other hand, if sellers drag the exchange rate below the 50-DMA at 1.0864, they could remain hopeful of pulling the spot toward the 200-DMA at 1.0830.

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 05.03.2024 12:38
    EUR/USD should find firm support on modest dips – Scotiabank

    EUR/USD edges a little lower. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    A clear move on to and through resistance in the upper 1.0800s remains elusive

    Intraday and daily DMI readings suggest the mild uptrend in place since the middle of last month remains intact and that spot should find firm support on modest dips.

    A clear move on to and through resistance in the upper 1.0800s (1.0880/1.0890) remains elusive, however, and progress will need to be made sooner or later to sustain the rally. 

    Support is 1.0795/1.0800.

     

  • 05.03.2024 10:20
    EUR/USD could launch another attack on the 1.0900 mark on weaker than expected ISM Services – Commerzbank

    If there is to be any significant impetus in EUR/USD, it is likely to come from the Dollar side, economists at Commerzbank say.

    1.0900 mark would be scratched on a few weaker US data coming in succession 

    The ISM index for services is on the agenda today. If the ISM services index is weaker than expected, the EUR/USD could launch another attack on the 1.0900 mark.

    If a few weaker data come in succession over the course of the week, the view could increasingly prevail that it will be a bumpy landing which, although reasonably successful, will still leave minor damage here and there. In this case, the 1.0900 mark would be scratched.

    However, things could also turn out differently: the US labor market, a data heavyweight, could remain robust and therefore underpin the picture of a soft landing again, meaning that the Fed and the market do not have to adjust their interest rate expectations and the USD continues to flex its muscles.

    To add another ingredient to the EUR/USD mix, there is also the ECB meeting on Thursday. Our experts are not expecting any major surprises that could shake up the June theory, but you never know. Life is full of surprises. So maybe this week won't be as boring in EUR/USD as it looks at the moment.

     

  • 05.03.2024 09:06
    EUR/USD Price Analysis: Hovers around the major level of 1.0850 above nine-day EMA
    • EUR/USD could find immediate support at the nine-day EMA at 1.0832.
    • The technical analysis suggests a confirmation of bullish momentum for the pair.
    • The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0864 appears to be the key resistance level.

    EUR/USD recovered some of its intraday losses but remains in negative territory, hovering around 1.0850 during the European session on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against the Euro (EUR) on the improved sentiment of risk aversion.

    The EUR/USD pair could find immediate support around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0832. A break below this level could put downward pressure on the pair to test the psychological support at 1.0800 aligned with the previous week’s low at 1.0795. Further support appears at the major level of 1.0750 if the pair surpasses the latter.

    Technical analysis indicates a bullish sentiment for the EUR/USD pair. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) exhibits a divergence above the signal line and lies above the centerline. While a lagging indicator, this suggests a confirmation of the bullish momentum for the EUR/USD pair.

    On the upside, the immediate resistance levels for the EUR/USD pair are identified at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0864. A break above this level could exert support for the pair to revisit February’s high at 1.0897, in conjunction with the psychological resistance at 1.0900.

    EUR/USD: Daily Chart

     

  • 05.03.2024 08:36
    Slowing NFP growth could give EUR/USD another chance to have a go at 1.0900 – SocGen

    EUR/USD is trying to make headway above 1.0850. Economists at Société Générale analyze the pair’s outlook.

    How far EUR/USD advance may depend on the ISM services and NFP 

    Slowing US employment growth on Friday may outweigh Powell’s testimony and the ECB decision and could give EUR/USD another chance to have a go at 1.0900.

    Upside momentum for the Dollar stalled last week and another run of profit-taking could follow if services ISM and/or NFP fall short of expectations. This would draw a line under Fed repricing which has governed FX and EUR/USD since the start of the year.

    For the ECB, there will be no change in policy on Thursday but the question that dominates is the new inflation forecast. If the projections are revised down and the ECB is reassured by the 4Q inflection point in wage growth, then market conviction would strengthen that a first rate cut could follow in June and precede a first reduction in the US. This could take the gloss off recent gains for EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY and snuff out rebound in EUR/GBP from the February lows.

     

  • 05.03.2024 07:54
    EUR/USD to end the week near 1.0800 – ING

    EUR/USD remains supported above 1.0800. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Downside risks into Thursday

    We do fear that EUR/USD has a little downside later this week on Thursday's European Central Bank risk.

    We see risks of a weaker Euro as the ECB lays out the conditionality of a June rate cut. Combined with Fed speeches this week, our bias is that EUR/USD ends the week near 1.0800.

    The Eurozone data calendar is light today, and we doubt the January PPI release is a market mover.

  • 05.03.2024 04:25
    EUR/USD flat-lines around mid-1.0800s; awaits rate-cut cues from Fed and ECB
    • EUR/USD oscillates in a narrow trading band on Tuesday amid mixed fundamental cues.
    • Traders also opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week’s key central bank event risks.
    • The downside seems limited amid reduced bets for more aggressive easing by the ECB.

    The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.0800s, nearly unchanged for the day and just below a one-week high touched on Monday.

    Traders now seem reluctant and prefer to wait for this week's key central bank event risks before placing aggressive directional bets, which, in turn, leads to the EUR/USD pair's subdued range-bound price action. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday will be looked upon for cues about the rate-cut path. This, along with the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday, will help in determining the near-term trajectory for the currency pair.

    Apart from this, investors this week will confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched monthly employment details, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, reduced bets for rapid interest rate cuts by the ECB continue to act as a tailwind for the shared currency. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is undermined by expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates in June and lends support to the EUR/USD pair.

    That said, a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a softer tone around the equity markets – is seen benefitting the safe-haven Greenback and capping the upside for the currency pair. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the EUR/USD pair's recent goodish rebound from sub-1.0700 levels, or a three-month low touched on February 14. Traders now look to the final Eurozone Services PMIs for some impetus ahead of the US ISM Services PMI.

     

  • 04.03.2024 19:16
    EUR/USD drifts into topside resistance zone with rate cut bets pinned
    • EUR/USD finds chart paper near 1.0850.
    • European investor confidence recovered on Monday.
    • US NFP employment to be key data print this week.

    EUR/USD drifted into the high end to kick off the trading week on Monday, finding chart space near 1.0860 and getting mired in near-term technical resistance. The pair has been rangebound for a week, and investors will look to critical US labor figures this week as markets gauge the Federal Reserve’s next move.

    This week, central banks loom heavily over the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be testifying before the US Congress’ House Financial Services Committee about the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report on Wednesday and Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) also gives its latest rate call during Thursday’s European market session.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD churns in familiar territory as traders await key data

    • Europe’s Sentix Investor Confidence for March rose to -10.5 from the previous -12.9, an 11-month high.
    • High impact data kicks off on Wednesday with European Retail Sales for January expected to decline to 1.3% YoY versus the previous -0.8% as European economic activity continues to weaken.
    • US ADP Employment Change numbers on Wednesday are expected to climb to 150K compared to the previous 107K as a precursor to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print.
    • The ECB’s rate call on Thursday is broadly expected to hold the main refi rate at 4.5%.
    • Investors are looking for softening US NFP labor figures to bolster odds of a Fed rate cut.
    • Tuesday’s US ISM Services PMI is forecast to tick down to 53.0 from 53.4.

    Euro price today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the .

      USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
    USD   -0.14% -0.26% 0.18% 0.24% 0.28% 0.16% 0.14%
    EUR 0.13%   -0.13% 0.32% 0.38% 0.41% 0.31% 0.28%
    GBP 0.26% 0.13%   0.43% 0.50% 0.55% 0.42% 0.41%
    CAD -0.18% -0.31% -0.43%   0.07% 0.09% -0.02% -0.03%
    AUD -0.24% -0.38% -0.50% -0.06%   0.04% -0.07% -0.09%
    JPY -0.28% -0.41% -0.58% -0.12% -0.05%   -0.11% -0.11%
    NZD -0.17% -0.31% -0.43% 0.01% 0.07% 0.11%   -0.02%
    CHF -0.15% -0.29% -0.41% 0.03% 0.09% 0.13% 0.02%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

    Technical analysis: EUR/USD trapped in consolidation as investors await Fed moves

    EUR/USD rose into 1.0860 on Monday, knocking into familiar technical bounds and holding onto the high side of near-term consolidation. The pair is corkscrewing through a sideways channel between 1.0860 and the 1.0800 handle.

    A lack of meaningful trend on daily candlesticks leaves the EUR/USD swamped into the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0830. Despite a 1.5% climb from the last swing low into 1.0700, but the pair remains down 2.6% from December’s peak bids near 1.1140.

    EUR/USD hourly chart

    EUR/USD daily chart

    Euro FAQs

    What is the Euro?

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
    EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
    The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
    The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
    Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
    A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
    Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
    If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

  • 04.03.2024 14:52
    EUR/USD to stay around 1.1000 for the time being – ABN Amro

    Economists at ABN Amro expect the EUR/USD pair to hover around the 1.1000 level.

    Expectations for Fed/ECB policy to continue to drive the direction in EUR/USD

    For this year, we expect expectations for Fed/ECB policy to continue to drive the direction in EUR/USD. 

    The market expects both the Fed and the ECB to start its easing cycle in April/May and rates to be reduced to 4% for the Fed and 2.5% for the ECB by the end of 2024. 

    We expect the easing cycles to start later, in June, and the Fed to arrive at 4.25% and the ECB at 2.75% at the end of the year. So, both for the Fed and the ECB we are somewhat less dovish than the market and the difference with the market is roughly the same. Therefore, we expect EUR/USD to stay around 1.1000 for the time being.

     

  • 04.03.2024 12:44
    EUR/USD: A clear push through 1.0880/1.0890 should see gains progress to 1.1000/1.1100 – Scotiabank

    EUR/USD nudges higher. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Narrower EZ/USD spread lifts EUR

    EUR/USD has been supported by narrowing spreads versus the USD in the past couple of weeks. A clearly dovish ECB may undermine that trend, and weigh on the EUR, but a hold and ‘no rush’ messaging may support a firmer EUR.

    Some positive price signals (spot moving above the 40-DMA at 1.0836) and an alignment of shorter-term (intraday and daily) trend oscillators give the short-term EUR chart a positive spin to start the week.

    The EUR’s grind higher since the mid-February low may have a chance to develop a little more momentum and test resistance at 1.0880/1.0890. A clear push through here should see gains progress to 1.1000/1.1100.

    Support is firm at 1.0795/1.0800.

     

  • 04.03.2024 11:09
    EUR/USD aims to stabilize above 1.0850 as US Dollar faces pressure
    • EUR/USD focuses on shifting its auction range above 1.0850 as the US Dollar drops.
    • Weak US Manufacturing PMI has prompted expectations of Fed rate cuts in June.
    • Eurozone’s high monthly inflation growth has eased early ECB rate-cut expectations.

    The EUR/USD pair aims to shift the trading range above the crucial resistance of 1.0850. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar remains on the back foot and hopes of early European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts drop further.

    The overall market action seems disordered as the S&P 500 futures are slightly down while risk-sensitive currencies perform well. The US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to 103.80 as expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have escalated.

    The CME FedWatch tool shows a 58% chance that interest rates will be down by 25 basis points (bps) in the June policy meeting. The expectations for a rate-cut were at 53% before the February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI data, released on Friday.

    The ISM reported the Manufacturing PMI at 47.8, lower than expectations of 49.5 and the former reading of 49.1. The agency reported that the fresh factory orders index has also come down significantly, indicating that recovery in the Manufacturing PMI has stalled.

    Going forward, the market participants will focus on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress in which he is expected to reiterate the need of having convincing evidence, which will confirm that inflation is on track to the 2% target.

    On the Eurozone front, stickier-than-expected preliminary inflation data for February has pushed back expectations of early rate cuts by the ECB. The fears of persistent inflation deepened as the monthly headline and core inflation data grew strongly by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

     

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