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EUR/GBP retraces its recent gains from its previous session, trading around 0.8440 during the European hours on Monday. The Euro faces challenges as recent eurozone inflation data have solidified expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at upcoming Thursday's policy meeting.
With headline inflation nearing 2% and long-term inflation forecasts holding steady around the same level, the ECB has sufficient justification to ease its monetary policy stance further. Additionally, last week's mixed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone has reinforced expectations of a potential rate cut by the ECB.
The slowdown in growth is fueling concerns that excessively high interest rates may be stifling economic expansion, echoing remarks made by ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone. Cipollone warned of "a real risk that ECB's stance could become too restrictive," further highlighting the potential impact of the current monetary policy on growth.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) may remain steady as investors await the United Kingdom's (UK) employment data for the quarter ending in July, set to be released on Tuesday. This labor market report could shape market expectations regarding the Bank of England's interest rate decisions for the rest of the year.
Estimates suggest the ILO Unemployment Rate may dip slightly to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%. Meanwhile, Average Earnings, including bonuses, are projected to ease to 4.1%, down from the prior 4.5% figure. Slower wage growth could heighten expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, as it would indicate a potential decline in inflation within the services sector.
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
EUR/GBP gives back early gains on Friday as traders sell the Euro (EUR) following the release of Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data which showed a downward revision in the second quarter from the initial estimate. This brings the pair back down into the week’s range in the early 0.8420-30s.
Eurozone GDP grew at a slower 0.2% quarterly pace in Q2 compared to the 0.3% of the previous estimate, and below the 0.3% of Q1. The downward revision increases the chances the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates at its September meeting. This, in turn, weighs on EUR/GBP since lower interest rates are negative for the Euro because they reduce foreign capital inflows.
The slowdown in growth also plays into fears that too-high interest rates are stifling growth, reinforcing comments from ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, who said, in an interview with a French newspaper this week that "there is a real risk that (the ECB) stance could become too restrictive."
EUR/GBP is further capped by the strength of the Pound Sterling (GBP) which sees gains from investors’ view that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a shallower easing path – cutting interest rates at a slower pace – than most other central banks, including the ECB. The BoE is only expected to make a 0.25% cut before the end of 2024 as the recent run of strong data indicates the economy continues growing and services sector inflation remains high.
The ECB, on the other hand, is expected to cut interest rates by at least 0.50% before year end. In a poll by Reuters carried out between August 30 and September 5, 85% of economists anticipate that the ECB will cut interest rates at the meeting in September and again in December.
The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 0.8435 during the Asian session on Friday. The Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) will be closely watched, which is estimated to grow 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY in the second quarter (Q2).
According to the 4-hour chart, the negative outlook of EUR/GBP remains intact as the cross holds below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). However, the further upside cannot be ruled out as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points higher above the midline near 56.0.
The first upside barrier for EUR/GBP emerges at 0.8440, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 0.8457. A decisive break above this level will see a rally to the 0.8500 psychological level.
On the flip side, the initial support level is located at 0.8417, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The potential contention level to watch is the 0.8400-0.8405 region, representing the round figure and the low of September 3. The additional downside filter to watch is 0.8383, the low of July 17.
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
In Thursday's session, the EUR/GBP pair mildly declined to 0.8425 while the pair faced a mixed technical outlook with indicators flat in negative terrain. It all points out to bears taking a breather after shedding more than 1% in August.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, around 39, with a mildly declining slope, signaling flattening bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints flat red bars, further reinforcing the flattening bearish traction. Additionally, volumes have been decreasing over the last few sessions.
The EUR/GBP pair is consolidating above the 0.8400 level after August's sharp downward movements, which acts as immediate support, with resistance at 0.8430. If the pair breaks above this level, it could target 0.8450 and 0.8470. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8400, followed by 0.8350.
EUR/GBP continues its counter-trend reaction after its accelerated decline during the month of August took it temporarily outside the bounds of its falling channel (shaded circle). This breakout is often a sign of exhaustion of the downtrend, however, it is a little too soon to tell.
EUR/GBP has now bottomed out and is evolving a sideways rangebound market mode.
So far the recovery has been quite shallow and it is currently capped by resistance from the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA).
EUR/GBP has not been able to break decisively above the SMA or the line of highs at 0.8435 suggesting a reversal remains elusive.
The pair will probably continue sideways until it reaches resistance from the upper channel line at roughly 0.8450.
The medium-term trend remains bearish, however, suggesting there is still a chance of an extension lower, although the channel exhaustion break lowers the odds.
That said, a break below 0.8406 (September 3 low) would pave the way for further weakness to a downside target at 0.8385 (July 17 lows).
In order to reverse the short-term trend, bulls would have to decisively break above the 50 SMA. A decisive break would be one accompanied by a long green candle that closed near its high or three green candles in a row that closed above the SMA.
The long-term trend (weekly chart) is still bearish whilst the medium-term trend is bullish.
The EUR/GBP cross oscillates in a narrow band through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the 0.8425-0.8430 area, just below a one-week high touched earlier this Thursday.
The British Pound (GBP) continues with its relative outperformance in the wake of expectations that the Bank of England's (BoE) rate-cutting cycle is more likely to be slower than in the Eurozone or the United States. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/GBP cross. That said, the shared currency benefits from the emergence of some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling, which helps limit the downside for the currency pair.
Looking at the broader picture, the range-bound price action witnessed since last Wednesday constitutes the formation of a rectangle on the daily chart. This might be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent fall from a multi-month peak touched in August. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/GBP cross is to the downside.
That said, a sustained strength beyond the trading range resistance near the 0.8435 region might prompt some technical buying and lift spot prices to the next relevant hurdle near the 0.8465-0.8470 area. The latter coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which if cleared decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders. The EUR/GBP cross might then aim to reclaim the 0.8500 psychological mark and climb further to the 0.8515 resistance zone.
On the flip side, the 0.8415 area is likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 0.8400 mark, or over a one-month low touched on August 30. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and expose the YTD trough, around the 0.8385-0.8380 region touched in July. Spot prices could eventually drop to the August 2022 swing low, around the 0.8410 zone en route to the 0.8400 round-figure mark.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
EUR/GBP offers its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.8420 during Thursday’s Asian hours. Traders await Eurozone Retail Sales data scheduled to be released later in the day.
The downside of the EUR/GBP cross could be attributed to rising speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in September. The ECB’s rate cut would mark the second interest rate cut by the ECB since it began shifting toward policy normalization in June.
In the Euro Area, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.8% month-over-month in July, the largest increase since December 2022. This follows an upwardly revised 0.6% rise in June and significantly exceeds market forecasts of 0.3%.
However, the Eurozone Services PMI fell to 52.9 in August, from 53.3 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI decreased to 51.0, missing expectations and falling below the previous reading of 51.2.
The British Pound (GBP) advances further by rising expectations that the Bank of England's (BoE) rate-cutting cycle is more likely to be slower than the European Central Bank. The bets were lifted by Tuesday’s BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales, which increased by 0.8% year-on-year in August, up from a 0.3% rise in July, marking the fastest growth in five months.
Meanwhile, there was positive sentiment from the UK macroeconomic front, as a Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey showed that business activity in August accelerated at its fastest pace since April.
On Wednesday, the S&P Global UK Composite PMI increased to 53.8 in August, up from 53.4 in the previous month and revised higher from the preliminary estimate of 53.4. The Services PMI rose to 53.7 in August, compared to 53.3 in the prior month. The data showed on Monday that the Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.5 for August, consistent with preliminary estimates.
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
In Wednesday's session, the EUR/GBP mildly rose to 0.8420, continuing its recovery from last week's losses which saw the cross bottoming at 0.8400.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. However, the RSI's slope is rising, suggesting that bullish momentum is building. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints decreasing red bars, also pointing out that the bears are losing steam.
The EUR/GBP pair seems to be consolidating above the 0.8400 level, which acts as immediate support while resistances line up at 0.8430, 0.8450, and above at 0.8470. With that in mind, it all points out that the bears are taking a breather after last week's movements and that the cross has entered in consolidation mode.
EUR/GBP has paused its sell-off within a falling channel. The pair temporarily broke below the bottom of the channel (shaded circle) before recovering and consolidating. This break may be a sign of exhaustion and the first faint signs of a reversal higher, however, it is too soon to tell.
So far the recovery has been quite shallow and it is currently capped by resistance from the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Price would need to break decisively above the SMA and the line of highs at 0.8435 to provide a stronger bullish signal. Such a move would be expected to extend to the upper channel line at roughly 0.8450 where it would probably encounter reasonably tough resistance. A decisive break would be accompanied by a long green candle that closed near its high or three green candles in a row.
The short-term trend remains bearish, however, suggesting the odds continue to favor an extension lower. A break below 0.8406 (September 3 low) would pave the way for further weakness to a downside target at 0.8385 (July 17 lows).
The long-term trend (weekly chart) is still bearish whilst the medium-term trend is bullish
EUR/GBP trims its intraday gains following the release of HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the Eurozone and Germany, trading around 0.8430 during Wednesday’s European session. The Eurozone Services PMI decreased to 52.9 in August, from 53.3 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI dropped to 51.0, missing expectations and falling below the previous reading of 51.2, which was expected to remain unchanged.
In Germany, the HCOB Services PMI declined to 51.2 in August, slightly below market expectations of no change from the previous 51.4 reading. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI also fell to 48.4, just under the anticipated and prior reading of 48.5.
However, the upside potential for the EUR/GBP cross may be limited, as the Euro may face challenges amid strong speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in September. This would mark the second interest rate cut by the ECB since it began shifting toward policy normalization in June. Policymakers remain confident that inflation will gradually return to the bank's 2% target by 2025.
The EUR/GBP cross may struggle as traders anticipate no rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in the September meeting. However, traders expect a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in the November meeting.
Growing concerns about the global economy have intensified after weak PMI data from the world's two largest economies. Traders will be closely watching the PMI data from the United Kingdom (UK) later in the day.
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
EUR/GBP extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.8430 during Tuesday’s European session. However, the upside potential for the EUR/GBP cross may be limited, as the Euro is under pressure amid strong speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in September.
This would mark the second interest rate cut by the ECB since it began shifting toward policy normalization in June. Policymakers remain confident that inflation will gradually return to the bank's 2% target by 2025.
ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau stated on Friday, according to Bloomberg, that there are "good reasons" for the central bank to consider cutting its key interest rates in September. Villeroy de Galhau suggested that action should be taken at the upcoming meeting on September 12, noting that it would be both fair and prudent to decide on a new rate cut.
In the United Kingdom (UK), BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales increased by 0.8% year-on-year in August, up from a 0.3% rise in July, marking the fastest growth in five months. On Monday, the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.5 for August, consistent with preliminary estimates.
The EUR/GBP cross may struggle as traders anticipate no rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in the September meeting, while the possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in the November meeting stands at 87.2%.
Traders await BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden's role as moderator for a panel on supervisory cooperation at a joint conference hosted by the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority on Tuesday.
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
In Monday's session, the EUR/GBP mildly rose to 0.8430, but sellers quickly regained control, pushing the pair back to the 0.8420 level. Technical indicators remain aligned with the prevailing bearish trend, suggesting further downside is likely. However, it all points down that the sellers will take a breather in the next sessions, and the pair might side-ways trade above the 0.8400 area.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the oversold territory at around 37, with a flat slope indicating no clear momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print red bars, reinforcing the selling pressure. Volume has been decreasing in recent sessions, indicating a stagnant selling momentum.
Overall, while extreme oversold conditions may provide some temporary support, the technical outlook remains bearish. The EUR/GBP could attempt to test the immediate support at 0.8400, followed by 0.8380 and 0.8360. On the upside, resistance lies at 0.8430, followed by 0.8450 and 0.8470. In case of a consolidation, traders should eye the 0.8400-0.8450 channel for side-ways movements.
In Friday's session, the EUR/GBP rose to 0.8420. However, upward movements seem to only be corrective and sellers take a breather after multiple sessions of losses.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 37 seeing a flat slope. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints red bars, reinforcing the selling pressure.
Overall, technical indicators lack upside conviction. The pair could make an attempt to test the support at 0.8450, and if that gives way the next resistance is seen at 0.8500. With indicators near extreme conditions, the cross is set to side-ways trade in the next sessions above the 0.8400 area. Despite bullish traction being non-existent, the cross might get a push from fundamentals. On the technical side, the outlook is bearish with the cross shedding more than 1% in August.
The EUR/GBP pair is all set to conclude the week in red for the third straight week. The asset remains on the backfoot as the Euro (EUR) weakens, with financial market participants seeming to be confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again in September after announcing the first in the June meeting.
The ECB is almost certain to reduce its key borrowing rates next month as price pressures in the Eurozone economy have declined expectedly in August and its economic outlook is uncertain, with growing fears that the German economy could enter a recession.
Flash Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) report for August, released in Friday’s European trading hours, reported that the headline and core inflation- which excludes volatile items like energy, food, alcohol and tobacco- decelerated expectedly to 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively. Month-on-month core HICP rose by 0.3% after contracting in July.
Market speculation for ECB rate cuts in September was already firm as German HICP returned to the bank’s target of 2% in August, according to the data released on Thursday.
"Fading inflationary pressure combined with fading growth momentum offers an almost perfect macro backdrop for another rate cut," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, in a note on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits sheer strength against its major peers on expectations that the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy-easing cycle would be slower. The BoE is expected to cut interest rates one more time this year. The central bank pivoted to policy normalization in its recent policy meeting on August 1.
The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, – released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Core HICP excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The Core HICP is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Fri Aug 30, 2024 09:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 2.8%
Consensus: 2.8%
Previous: 2.9%
Source: Eurostat
EUR/GBP continues its losing streak for the eighth consecutive session, trading around 0.8410 during the early European hours on Friday. The EUR/GBP cross may extend its decline as the Pound Sterling (GBP) receives support from hawkish sentiment surrounding the Bank of England (BoE) maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period compared to the European Central Bank (ECB).
At the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the second-round effects of inflationary pressures would be less significant than anticipated. However, Bailey also advised against hastening additional interest rate cuts, according to Reuters. The BoE reduced rates by 25 basis points to 5% on August 1, and money markets are pricing in an additional 40 basis points of cuts by the end of the year.
In August, UK Nationwide Housing Prices experienced a 2.4% year-on-year increase, up from 2.1% in July. This marked the sixth consecutive period of rising house prices and the strongest growth since December 2022. However, on a monthly basis, house prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.3% increase in July, defying market expectations of a 0.3% rise.
In the Eurozone, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany and Spain indicated that inflation cooled further in August. This development has fueled expectations of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB), weakening the Euro and undermining the EUR/GBP cross.
Carsten Brzeski, ING’s global head of macroeconomics, described the outcome as "great news for the ECB," noting that a slowing economy and cooling inflation create a "perfect macro backdrop" for lower interest rates. However, Brzeski cautioned that service inflation remains a concern.
Traders are now eagerly awaiting the flash estimate of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for August and the Unemployment Rate for July later in the day, looking for additional insights into the Eurozone's economic condition.
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
The EUR/GBP pair extended its losses on Thursday, declining by 0.20% to 0.84010. However, the pair remains above the 0.8400 mark, which is a key support level but selling pressure is increasing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 35 and it is decreasing. This indicates that there is growing selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing red bars, which also suggests that the bearish momentum is increasing.
Overall, the technical outlook for the EUR/GBP pair remains negative. The pair is likely to continue to decline in the near term, and if the bears breach the 0.8400 area the next support is seen at 0.8380. However, if the pair can hold above the 0.8400 level, the bearish traction might lose steam and with the RSI near 30, there are chances of an upward correction.
The EUR/GBP cross trades in negative territory for the seventh consecutive day near 0.8415 during the early European session on Thursday. The higher bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again in its September meeting further weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling (GBP).
ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said on Wednesday that he awaited more information before deciding on whether to support an interest rate cut in September. However, markets expect the ECB to lower the borrowing costs next month amid easing price pressures and an uncertain economic outlook.
The flash estimate of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will be released on Friday. The headline inflation is estimated to ease to 2.2% YoY in August from 2.6% prior, while the core CPI inflation is expected to drop to 2.8% YoY in August from 2.9% in the previous reading. In case of the hotter-than-expected outcome, this might lift the shared currency and cap the downside for EUR/GBP.
On the other hand, stronger than forecast economic data in recent months and optimism about the new Labour government underpin the GBP. The comments from the Bank of England (BoE) Andrew Bailey also support the GBP. Bailey stated that “policy setting will need to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation remaining sustainably around the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The course will therefore be a steady one.” Economists anticipate one more 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the BoE this year, according to a Reuters poll.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
In Wednesday's session, the EUR/GBP pair extended its losses, down to 0.8425, reflecting a persistent bearish outlook by the sellers. The pair has been extending its losing streak to six consecutive sessions. The technical indicators continue to align with the bearish trend, but on the positive side, buyers stepped in to defend the 0.8400 area after falling to a low of 0.8410.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print rising red bars, suggesting increasing bearish momentum This convergence of indicators points to a likely continuation of the downtrend.
After seven sessions of losses, the next sessions might see a rebound and sellers might eventually run out of steam. Regarding the overall outlook, it will depend on whether the pair holds the 0.8400 line or not.
In Tuesday's session, the EUR/GBP pair extended its losses,0.30% down to 0.8440, reflecting a dominant outlook by the sellers. The pair has been extending its losing streak to six consecutive sessions. The technical indicators continue to align with the bearish trend, hinting at further declines below 0.8450.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator that gauges market momentum has retreated to 40, indicating a waning buying pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), displays rising red bars, signaling an increase in bearish momentum. This convergence of indicators points to a likely continuation of the downtrend.
With indicators marching towards oversold conditions, the pair might see a slight upward correction, but the outlook has turned bearish at least for the short term. For the next sessions, the movements will be determined by whether the cross sustains the 0.8400-0.8450 area.
The EUR/GBP pair extends its losing spree for the fifth trading session on Tuesday. The cross weakens as the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens on expectations that the process of policy-easing by the Bank of England (BoE) in the remaining year would be slower than other central bankers from its major peers.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank would "be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or by too much" in his speech at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium on Friday.
The BoE announced its first-ever interest rate cut on August 1, ending its two-and-a-half year-long restrictive monetary policy stance, as officials gained confidence that price pressures will return to the bank’s target of 2% sustainably.
Currently, financial markets expect that the BoE will deliver one more interest rate cut this year. The reasoning behind a shallow BoE policy-easing cycle is the improving United Kingdom’s (UK) economic outlook.
The economic outlook of the UK economy improved after flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI showed that activities in the manufacturing and the service sector rose at a faster-than-expected pace in August.
On the Eurozone front, the Euro (EUR) underperforms as investors seem confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again in the September meeting. Easing price pressures in the shared currency region and uncertain economic outlook have prompted ECB rate cut expectations.
For fresh interest rate cues, investors await the Eurozone flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August, which will be published on Friday.
The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, – released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Core HICP excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. The Core HICP is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Aug 30, 2024 09:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.8%
Previous: 2.9%
Source: Eurostat
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