CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Swiss Franc (EURCHF)

• EUR/CHF is trading at the bottom of a Triangle pattern. 
• The pair looks vulnerable to breaking lower. 

EUR/CHF is probing the base of a Triangle pattern it has formed over the last three months (see chart below). It has broken below the bottom of the Triangle on an intraday but not a closing basis. That said, the base seems weakened and vulnerable to finally giving way.  

EUR/CHF Daily Chart

A break below the 0.9339 November 13 low would probably confirm more weakness down to  the next downside target at 0.9132, the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the height of the Triangle lower. 

The bearish trend prior to the formation of the Triangle (Since May 27) further tips the odds in favor of a downside evolution. 

• EUR/CHF is trying to break out of a Triangle pattern. 
• If it succeeds it will probably lead to further downside towards the price objective for the pattern.

EUR/CHF is attempting to break out of a Triangle pattern it has formed over the last three months (see chart below).

EUR/CHF Daily Chart

A bearish close on Tuesday will indicate a decisive breakout has happened and suggest the start of a likely strong decline. 

The market activity prior to the formation of the Triangle (Since May 27) further tips the odds in favor of a downside evolution. 

If EUR/CHF breaks below the 0.9307 level (September 11 lows) it will further confirm an authentic bearish breakout, with the next target to the downside at 0.9132, the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the height of the Triangle lower. 

• EUR/CHF has formed a Triangle pattern which looks poised to breakout
• A downside break is marginally more probable given the longer-term trend is bearish. 

EUR/CHF has formed a Triangle pattern over the last three months which looks like it is on the verge of completing as it tapers to a tip at around 0.9400. A breakout should soon follow. 

EUR/CHF Daily Chart

Since the market activity prior to the formation of the Triangle (Since May 27) was bearish and the longer-term trend is probably also down, the odds slightly favor a downside breakout. 

If EUR/CHF pierces below the lower boundary line of the Triangle and falls below the 0.9307 level (September 11 lows) it will probably confirm an authentic breakout. The next target to the downside would lie at 0.9132, the 61.8% Fibonacci extrapolation of the height of the Triangle lower. 

An upside breakout – though less likely – is possible. A move above the 0.9508 high of September 25 would probably confirm a bullish breakout and extend to the 0.9581 Fibonacci 61.8% target for the Triangle higher. 

The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures how strong the price is trending. At 14.13 it is currently relatively low, suggesting it will soon start rising again as price begins its next directional phase of development.  

• EUR/CHF has unfolded a correction over the last four days. 
• This move now looks almost complete and the bullish prior move is likely to resume. 

EUR/CHF pulls back in the middle of a recovery rally. Despite the overall bearish medium-term trend the pair is showing signs it could press higher in the short-term.

EUR/CHF Daily Chart 

EUR/CHF formed a Bullish Engulfing Japanese candlestick pattern on the day it bottomed on September 11 (shaded rectangle). This happens when price reaches a new low in a downtrend, reverses during the same day and closes higher. When the body of the recovery candle encompasses – or “engulfs” – the whole of the previous day’s body it is known in technical analysis as a Bullish Engulfing. The following day was a green up day adding confirmation to the Bullish Engulfing. The whole pattern is a short-term bullish signal. 

Not long after the recovery, the pair pulled back on September 12, however, the correction has been shallow and seems to have traced out a vague three-wave corrective pattern. This suggests the bullish rebound will probably resume. The correction also looks close to completion. 

A break above 0.9434 (September 12 high) would confirm a continuation higher, with the next target at 0.9464, followed by 0.9513 in the case of a particularly bullish move. 

A break below 0.9369 would probably invalidate the bullish hypothesis and suggest a more neutral or bearish outlook.

• EUR/CHF bottomed and formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on September 11. 
• Since then it has recovered then pulled back – it could soon resume upside again. 

EUR/CHF reached a temporary bottom on September 11 and recovered. It is currently trading above 0.9400. There are signs that suggest it could continue higher despite the overall bearish medium-term trend.

EUR/CHF Daily Chart 

EUR/CHF formed a Bullish Engulfing Japanese candlestick pattern when it touched bottom on September 11. This occurs when price bottoms out, recovers and during the recovery day encloses – or "engulfs" – the whole of the preceding day's body in new day's body. The initial engulfing candle was followed by a confirmatory green follow-up day (shaded rectangle) adding confidence. This pattern is a short-term bullish signal. 

The pair has pulled back slightly since peaking on September 12, however, the correction has been shallow so far and it is possible the pair will resume moving higher. 

A break above the 0.9434 high (September 12) would confirm a continuation higher, with the next target at 0.9464, followed by 0.9513 in the case of a particularly bullish move. 

A break below 0.9369 would invalidate the bullish hypothesis and suggest a more neutral or bearish outlook.

EUR/CHF has recently risen above 0.9350 and 0.94, Société Generale FX analysts note.

Daily MACD is attempting across above its trigger line

EUR/CHF has recently carved out a higher trough near 0.9350 than the one achieved in August at 0.9210. This denotes downward momentum is receding.

Daily MACD is within negative territory but is attempting across above its trigger line. A brief rebound towards 0.9490, the 61.8% retracement of recent pullback can’t be ruled out.

The 200-DMA near 0.9580/0.9600 will be a crucial resistance zone near term. In the event the pair breaches 0.9350, there would be risk of a deeper pullback.

EUR/CHF is staying very soft and USD/CHF is continuing to plumb new lows, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

SNB to intervenes in both USD/CHF and EUR/CHF

“We are not far away from the December 2023 low at 0.8333. We have no evidence for this, but we suspect that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervenes in both USD/CHF as well as EUR/CHF.”

“Watch out for any spikes in USD/CHF should it start to trade under 0.84.”