Date | Rate | Change |
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The EUR/CAD fell by 0.29% on Wednesday, reaching a low of 1.4745, continuing its decline and reaching lows last seen in July. The bearish trend is supported by negative technical indicators, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicating selling pressure and bearish momentum.
The EUR/CAD is in a downtrend after touching a peak of 1.5170. Currently, the pair is approaching the level of 1.4740, where sellers are showing strength. The technical indicators point to heightened selling pressure, with the RSI at 31, near the oversold area, and the MACD red and rising.
The EUR/CAD pair continued its downtrend on Wednesday, reaching lows last seen in July. This move was supported by negative technical indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, indicating selling pressure and bearish momentum. The pair might continue to shed more ground as it has room before oversold conditions but bears might encounter a strong barrier at the 1.4700 area where the pair might encounter a rebound..
The EUR/CAD pair stays under pressure near the intraday low of 1.4750 in the European trading session on Wednesday even though Eurozone Negotiated Wages Rate data accelerated in the third quarter of the year. The wage growth measure grew by 5.42%, faster than the Q2 release of 3.54%, prompting expectations of a recovery in consumer spending.
However, the cross showed a muted reaction to the wage growth measure, with European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers focusing more on reviving economic growth than controlling inflation. The European Union (EU) is expected to enter a trade war with the United States (US) as President-elect Donald Trump mentioned in its election campaign that the euro bloc will "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports.
“Protectionist tendencies could disrupt the global supply chains that are essential to European industries, with a negative impact on firms’ growth potential, competitiveness, and financial resilience," Claudia Buch, head of ECB’s supervisory arm, told the European Parliament on Monday.
Fears of a potential trade war could falter Eurozone economic growth and keep inflation well below the bank’s target of 2%. This has also prompted expectations of more interest rate cuts by the ECB. In the December meeting, the ECB is expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate again by 25 basis points (bps) to 3%.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) performs strongly against a majority of its peers after the Canadian inflation data for October came in hotter than expected. Tuesday’s CPI data showed that the headline inflation accelerated at a faster-than-projected pace to 2% against 1.6% in September on year. Economists expected the headline inflation to have grown by 1.9%. Month-on-month headline inflation rose by 0.4%, the same pace at which price pressures decelerated in the previous month. Soft inflation data is expected to weigh on the Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish bets for the December meeting.
The EUR/CAD cross attracts some follow-through buying at the start of a new week and looks to build on its recovery from the vicinity of the 1.4700 mark, or the lowest level since July 10 touched last week. Spot prices climb to a one-week top during the first half of the European session and currently trade around the 1.4870 region, up 0.25% for the day.
A modest downtick in the US Dollar (USD) provides a modest lift to the shared currency. Furthermore, bets for a larger interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) continue to undermine the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and act as a tailwind for the EUR/CAD cross. That said, rebounding Crude Oil prices could limit deeper losses for the commodity-linked Loonie and cap gains for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/CAD cross is currently placed near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This is closely followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall witnessed over the past two weeks, around the 1.4885 region, and the 1.4900 mark. A sustained strength beyond the said barriers might shift the bias in favor of bulls and set the stage for further gains.
That said, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been recovering from lower levels – are holding in negative territory. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying beyond the 1.4915-1.4920 area before confirming that the EUR/CAD cross has formed a near-term bottom and positioning for a move beyond the 1.4950 area (50% Fibo. level), towards reclaiming the 1.5000 psychological mark.
On the flip side, the 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 1.4820 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.4790-1.4785 zone. The subsequent downfall could expose the multi-month low, around the 1.4710 area. The EUR/CAD cross could eventually weaken further below the 1.4700 round figure and accelerate the downfall towards testing the next relevant support near the 1.4675 region.
EUR/CAD extends its losing streak to a fifth consecutive session, trading near the 1.4770 level during early European trading hours on Thursday. Daily chart technical analysis points to waning short-term momentum, with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned below the 14-day EMA.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely used indicator for gauging overbought or oversold conditions, is currently just above the 30 mark. This suggests ongoing bearish momentum without confirming a fully oversold condition.
If the RSI falls below 30, traders may look for signs of an upward correction. A rebound from oversold levels could drive the pair back toward the 1.4800-1.4850 range, where sellers may once again challenge the strength of any recovery attempt.
On the downside, key support is positioned at 1.4700, a level of particular significance for technical traders. This support could either act as a buffer, potentially slowing further decline, or, if decisively broken, reinforce the bearish trend. A break below 1.4700 could open the door for EUR/CAD cross to approach its seven-month low of 1.4587.
On the upside, EUR/CAD faces initial resistance around 1.4870, a level that previously served as support but has now become “pullback resistance.” A move above this “throwback” level could suggest cautious bullish sentiment emerging among traders.
If EUR/CAD breaks above 1.4870, the focus would then shift to the nine-day EMA at 1.4884 and the 14-day EMA at 1.4922. These EMAs act as dynamic resistance points that would need to be surpassed for any substantial bullish momentum to gain traction.
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.12% | -0.03% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.07% | |
EUR | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.01% | |
GBP | -0.09% | -0.04% | 0.02% | -0.12% | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.02% | |
JPY | -0.12% | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.14% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.05% | |
CAD | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.10% | |
AUD | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.06% | -0.10% | 0.06% | 0.00% | |
NZD | -0.12% | -0.07% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.07% | |
CHF | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.01% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The EUR/CAD pair discovers temporary support near the round-level support of 1.4800 in European trading hours on Wednesday. The asset finds an interim cushion. However, the downside bias remains intact as US President-elected Donald Trump’s tariff policies are expected to result in a trade war between the Eurozone and the United States administration.
In the election campaign, Trump vowed to raise tariffs by 10% universally and mentioned that the Euro (EUR) bloc would "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports. The impact is seen denting German’s output by 1%, which is Eurozone’s largest nation, according to European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and President of the Bundesbank Joachin Nagel.
On Tuesday, Governing Council Member and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn suggested that Europe should position itself better for Trump’s administration at a conference in London. On the interest rate outlook, Rehn said the central bank is heading towards the neutral rate and is seen reaching by the first half of the next year but the pace will be dependent on the overall assessment of dynamic factors at each meeting.
"Current market data and simple maths seem to imply that we would leave restrictive territory sometime in the spring/winter next year 2025," Rehn said, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been underpinned by market participants against the Euro for the past few weeks but its own outlook against other major currencies is downbeat as the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to cut interest rates again by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.25% in the December meeting.
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EUR/CAD cross struggles to rebound from three consecutive days of losses, trading around the 1.4810 mark during the Asian hours on Wednesday. A technical analysis of a daily chart indicates a strong bearish momentum, with indicators suggesting that sellers are still firmly in control of the market. However, oversold conditions may be approaching, hinting at the possibility of a short-term correction.
On the daily chart, EUR/CAD is trading below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has been serving as a dynamic resistance line over recent sessions. The nine-day EMA has also diverged below the 14-day EMA, creating a "bearish crossover" that reflects weakening short-term momentum and solidifying the pair’s downward trajectory.
The 14-day RSI, a popular tool for identifying overbought or oversold conditions, currently sits slightly above the 30 level. This placement signals sustained bearish momentum without fully confirming an oversold condition. Should the RSI drop below the critical 30 mark, traders may look for signs of an upward correction. A bounce from oversold conditions could bring the pair back toward the 1.4850-1.4900 range, where sellers may once again test the resilience of any recovery attempt.
On the downside, the 1.4800 mark is acting as a psychological level and could be the first line of defense if selling pressure continues. This level is often pivotal, as psychological levels can attract buying interest from traders hoping for a potential rebound.
If the EUR/CAD cross breaks below 1.4800, the next critical support lies at 1.4700. This level holds significant importance for technical traders, as it could either slow the decline or reinforce the bearish trend if broken decisively. A drop below this level could set the stage for EUR/CAD to approach its seven-month low at 1.4587.
On the upside, the EUR/CAD pair encounters its first hurdle around 1.4870, a level that previously served as support but has now turned into “pullback resistance.” A move above this “throwback” level could indicate that bullish sentiment is emerging, albeit cautiously, among market participants.
Should the EUR/CAD break above 1.4870, attention will shift to the nine-day EMA at 1.4918 and the 14-day EMA at 1.4949. Both levels represent dynamic resistance points and would need to be overcome for any meaningful bullish momentum to develop.
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EUR/CAD pair witnessed a decline of 0.30% on Tuesday, reaching a low of 1.4785, the lowest level since July. Indicators continued to deteriorate, with both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) pointing towards a bearish trend, indicating increasing selling pressure.
As mentioned, the pair's bearish outlook is supported by technical indicators, including the RSI, which currently sits in the oversold zone at 29 with a declining slope, indicating rising selling pressure. The MACD also reinforces this view, with its histogram turning red and rising, suggesting a potential intensification of selling. Should the pair close and stay below 1.4785, it would further indicate increased selling pressure and a potential downward trend.
However, the RSI reaching oversold levels hints at the possibility of a corrective bounce above 1.4800.
The EUR/CAD pair trades close to more than a three-month low around 1.4820 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The cross extends its losing streak for the third trading day on Tuesday as the Euro (EUR) remains on the backfoot across the board.
The Euro faces intense selling pressure on Republican Donald Trump’s victory in United States (US) presidential elections who vowed to raise import tariffs by 10% universally in his election campaign. Though the impact should be seen on all trading partners of the US, the Euro appears to be a bigger victim, with Trump mentioning in his election campaign the euro bloc will "pay a big price" for not buying enough American exports.
Meanwhile, German political uncertainty after the collapse of the three-party coalition has also weighed on the Euro, challenging the economic growth by paving the way for a confidence vote on December 18 and a snap election on February 23, according to a report from Focus Online.
Though investors have underpinned the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD), its outlook remains weak on growing expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates further. The BoC is expected to reduce its key borrowing rates by 50 basis points (bps) again in the December meeting.
EUR/CAD delivers a breakdown of the Distribution formation on a daily timeframe in which the asset is transferred from institutional investors to retail participants, which results in a bearish reversal. The longer-term trend of the asset has also turned bearish as it has slipped below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.4866.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, adds to evidence of more downside ahead.
The cross could decline to the July 10 low near 1.4730 and the round-level support of 1.4700 after breaking below the July 12 low near 1.4800.
On the flip side, a recovery move above the November 11 high of 1.4927 will drive the asset towards the psychological resistance of 1.5000 and the October 28 high of 1.5045.
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EUR/CAD cross attempts to halt its two days of losses, trading around 1.4840 during the Asian session on Tuesday. An analysis of the daily chart highlights a strong bearish bias, as the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, stays below the 50 level, indicating sustained bearish momentum. A further dip toward the 30 level would intensify this downward trend for the EUR/CAD cross.
Additionally, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 14-day EMA, signaling continued weakness in short-term price momentum for the EUR/CAD cross.
On the downside, the EUR/CAD cross may test the psychological level of 1.4800, followed by the key level of 1.4700. A break below the latter could put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around its seven-month low of 1.4587 level.
Regarding the resistance, the EUR/CAD cross finds an immediate barrier around “throwback support” turned “pullback resistance” at the 1.4870 level. A break above the level could lead the pair to test the nine-day EMA at 1.4951 level, followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.4974 level.
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.14% | 0.23% | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.07% | |
EUR | -0.14% | 0.09% | -0.16% | 0.02% | 0.19% | -0.05% | -0.07% | |
GBP | -0.23% | -0.09% | -0.26% | -0.06% | 0.10% | -0.15% | -0.15% | |
JPY | 0.02% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.19% | 0.36% | 0.12% | 0.11% | |
CAD | -0.16% | -0.02% | 0.06% | -0.19% | 0.17% | -0.06% | -0.09% | |
AUD | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.10% | -0.36% | -0.17% | -0.22% | -0.25% | |
NZD | -0.09% | 0.05% | 0.15% | -0.12% | 0.06% | 0.22% | -0.03% | |
CHF | -0.07% | 0.07% | 0.15% | -0.11% | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
EUR/CAD has broken out of the rectangular price pattern it has been forming since August.
A bearish close on Monday (today) would confirm a decisive breakout from the pattern. The usual method for determining the follow-through after a breakout would be to take the height of the range and extrapolate it lower by 61.8% – or in the case of an optimistic forecast 100%.
In the case of EUR/CAD this gives a minimum downside target of 1.4684. A break clearly below the green 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) would provide confirmation. The SMA lies at 1.4839, however, a break below 1.4820 would confirm a clear break and probably confirm a continuation lower to the aforementioned conservative target.
The 100% target for the pattern lies at 1.4555.
EUR/CAD has two possible polar-opposite scenarios in which price could play out:
1) The pair is going higher – it has broken out from a consolidation pattern formed since August and is about to rally as it fulfills the price target for the pattern.
2) The breakout above the upper trendline of the pattern is “false” and the pair has formed a small Double Top bearish reversal pattern (DT) instead. This will likely see prices fall if price breaks below the pattern’s lows.
A break above the 1.5172 (November 1 high) would probably confirm scenario 1) and lead to a continuation higher, to an initial target at 1.5228, the August 5 high, followed by 1.5312, the 61.8% Fibonacci price projection of the height of the pattern.
A break below 1.5110 (November 1 low), on the other hand, would probably confirm the DT and lead to a move down to 1.5051 which is equal to the height of the pattern extrapolated lower.
Volume was lower on the right hand shoulder of the DT compared to the left (red dotted line on chart) which helps confirm the pattern as authentic and adds bearish color.
EUR/CAD rallies and pierces decisively above the slanting roof of the price pattern it had been trading in since the beginning of August. This is a bullish sign and if price follows through higher it could make a significant advance.
A break above 151.72 (November 1 high) might confirm a continuation higher, probably to an initial target at 152.28, the August 5 high, followed by 1.5312, the 61.8% Fibonnacci price projection of the height of the pattern at its widest part, from the breakout point higher.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has risen above the zero line and is currently supportive of the bullish outlook.
A bearish close on Friday, however, would also form a two-bar reversal pattern, which occurs after a rally when a long green up day is followed by a long red down day of a similar length. This is a bearish short-term reversal pattern and could indicate a deeper correction temporarily clouds the outlook.
EUR/CAD appears to be extending the final “c wave” of an abc “zig-zag” price pattern within the confines of a multi-month range (see chart below).
Assuming the up leg extends as expected it should reach a length that is equal to the length of wave “a” or a Fibonacci 61.8% extension of a. This suggests an initial target at 1.5045 followed by 1.5088 in a bullish scenario.
A break above 1.5045 would confirm the move up to 1.5088.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has risen above the zero line and is mildly supportive of the bullish outlook.
EUR/CAD lengthens its range-bound price action on Friday, trading at 1.5000 after edging higher on the day. The pair is plum in the center of an 11-week range and unable to gain directionality due to the similar monetary policy outlook of the two currencies’ central banks.
Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada (BoC) are in the process of cutting interest rates as inflation pressures from the Covid-19 crisis ease.
The relative level of interest rates set by central banks is a major driver of the exchange rate because it impacts the flow of money. Capital tends to flow to where it can earn more and so favors currencies with higher interest rates, all other things being equal. As such neither the CAD nor EUR are particularly outperforming since both their central banks are expected to lower rates aggressively.
In its recent October meeting the BoC surprised markets by slashing its official interest rate (that which sets the interest rates of commercial banks) by 50 basis points (bps) (0.50%), bringing the official overnight rate down to 3.75%, from 4.25% previously.
Many analysts had expected a more cautious 25 bps (0.25%) reduction. The decision had negative repercussions for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) which weakened in most of its pairs although the effect was muted against the Euro, with EUR/CAD actually closing marginally higher on the day.
The reason CAD did not fall against the Euro on the day (Wednesday) was partly because of the publication of a story by Reuters which reported that the ECB was considering cutting interest rates to below the “neutral” rate. The neutral rate, also known as the “equilibrium level” of interest rates, is a theoretical level at which inflation should remain unchanged. For the ECB the neutral rate is said to be between 1.5% and 2.0%. Given the ECB’s key interest rate is 3.40% this would imply a radical reduction on the horizon.
The story intensified speculation the ECB might be preparing to cut interest rates more aggressively at its last meeting of the year in December 2024, with swap rates, which are used to predict central bank decisions, pricing a healthy chance of a 50 bps reduction.
“Rates are falling significantly as markets are pricing a higher probability of the ECB going for a 50 bps rate cut in December,” said Andres Larsson, Senior FX Analyst at Nordea Bank, adding, “..and a higher probability of the ECB eventually cutting rates to below neutral,”
According to Larsson, the market is pricing in “-35.6bp for the December ECB meeting and -32.4bp for the ECB meeting on 25 January.” This is substantially higher than a few weeks ago.
Eurozone data out on Thursday failed to quell speculation after October Purchasing Manager Indexes – surveys that indicate economic activity for leading sectors of the economy – revealed Manufacturing activity in the region rose but was still in contraction territory (below 50) at 45.9 and Services PMI dipped to 51.2 from 51.4 in September.
“Today’s PMIs were more or less in line with expectations, although the employment component dropped below 50, pointing to the risk of rising unemployment ahead,” said Larsson.
Employment and wages could be a key determining factor for whether the ECB decides to go for a “Christmas slasher” or not.
The ECB’s Chief Economist Martin Lane has said that wage inflation is likely to stay elevated in the second half of 2024 which is likely to prevent the ECB from making big cuts to interest rates before 2025. If true, this could inject some caution into ECB at the December meeting and suggest the bank might opt for a softer 25 bps cut instead. Such a move would provide upside for EUR/CAD.
According to official Wage Growth data, Eurozone wages rose 4.5% in the second quarter which, though lower than the 5.2% in the previous quarter, remained high. There is still no data for Q3, however, but the Eurozone Average Monthly Wage continues to rise quite strongly, reaching EUR 2,180 in September.
On Friday, the German IFO Business Climate Index showed a higher than expected reading, providing some reassurance regarding the outlook for the German economy, which has been seen as a weak link in the Eurozone despite historically being its engine house. This may have helped EUR/CAD nudge higher into the end of the week.
“The headline German IFO Business Climate Index rebounded to 86.5 in October from 85.4 in September. The data came in above the estimated 85.6 print,” said Dhwani Mehta, Senior Analyst at FXStreet.
From Canada, meanwhile, data on Friday showed shoppers reigning in their spending after data showed it rose by only 0.4% MoM in August, from 0.9% in July and below estimates of 0.5%.
EUR/CAD might also be biased to rise due to other factors weighing on the Canadian Dollar, which include the increased chance of Republican nominee Donald Trump winning the US presidential elections, and lower Crude Oil prices, since Oil is Canada’s largest export.
Former President Trump has vowed to impose tariffs on foreign imports in order to kickstart a recovery in US manufacturing, and if he targets Canadian imports this would reduce demand for CAD, weakening it. At the moment Canada, the US and Mexico enjoy a free trade deal, however, a Trump presidency might result in the US’s withdrawal. The deal is up for renegotiation in 2026.
According to the model of leading election website FiveThirtyEight, Trump now has a slightly higher 51% chance of winning. That said, the website’s master poll, which aggregates, averages, and weights polls according to recency, shows Vice-President Kamala Harris still in the lead with 48.1% versus Trump’s 46.4%.
Most betting websites offer better odds of Trump winning than Harris. The former President is also nudging ahead in key marginal seats that could decide the outcome of a too-close-to-call vote.
“Polls in the battleground states have remained very tight and within the margin of error,” says Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank on Friday. “For instance, an Emerson poll of several swing states yesterday had Trump very marginally ahead, including a 1pt lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and a 2pt lead in North Carolina," said Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research at Deutsche Bank in a note on Friday.
EUR/CAD is bouncing down a ten-week corridor that has a floor at 1.4890 and a sloping ceiling in around the 1.5100s. That is to say that the pair is in a range-bound, sideways trend on a short and medium-term basis.
Long-term the trend is bullish.
It will probably continue in its range until it decisively breaks out either higher or lower. The fact it is in a longer-term uptrend would normally marginally favor an upside breakout but the range’s flat bottom cancels out the bullish bias because it marginally favors a downside break. Overall there is no obvious bias.
In the event of a breakout higher the pair will probably rise up to a target at 1.5319, the Fibonacci 61.8% extrapolation of the height of the range higher. A decisive break would be one accompanied by a longer-than-average green candlestick that broke clearly above the top of the range and closed near its high, or three green candlesticks that broke above the top of the range.
Alternatively, a decisive break below the floor of the range is also possible and such a move would probably reach 1.4690, the 61.8% Fib extrapolation lower.
EUR/CAD halts its gains, trading around 1.5130 during the European session on Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against its peers despite soft inflation data that supports a dovish stance from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Furthermore, the commodity-linked CAD managed to hold its ground, even as crude Oil prices declined. Given the fact that Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US).
Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.5% year-on-year in July, down from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations. This marks the slowest increase in consumer prices since March 2021. Additionally, the closely watched BoC Consumer Price Index Core fell to 1.7% YoY, from the previous 1.9% reading, reinforcing dovish expectations for the Bank of Canada.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around $73.00 per barrel at the time of writing, amid hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a trip to the region aimed at facilitating a ceasefire in Gaza. Blinken, along with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, has raised hopes for a US "bridging proposal" that could narrow the gaps between the conflicting parties in the 10-month-old war, per Reuters.
The EUR/CAD cross received support as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to gradually lower interest rates. However, ECB officials have been cautious about committing to a specific rate-cut schedule, given concerns that inflationary pressures might pick up again.
Traders are likely to observe Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from the Eurozone and Germany scheduled for release on Thursday. HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone is expected to report a 50.1 reading, falling short of the previous reading of 50.2 reading.
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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