CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Australian Dollar (EURAUD)

• EUR/AUD softens to around 1.6285 in Monday’s early European session.
• The cross maintains the negative outlook below the key 100-period EMA, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out. 
• The initial support level emerges at 1.6264; the immediate resistance level is seen at 1.6317. 

The EUR/AUD cross weakens to near 1.6285 during the early European session on Monday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gathers strength against the shared currency amid the hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock last week. 

The RBA reiterated that “the Board is not ruling anything in or out” and that there is “the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation.” Traders brace for the RBA Meeting Minutes from its last board meeting for more clues on future rates, which are due on Tuesday. 

According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/AUD cross keeps the bearish vibe, with the price holding below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, suggesting the neutral momentum in the near term. 

The lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.6264 acts as an initial support level for the cross. The crucial contention level is seen in the 1.6205-1.6200 region, representing the psychological level and the low of November 12. The additional downside filter to watch is 1.6135, the low of October 18. 

On the bright side, the first upside barrier for EUR/AUD is located at 1.6317, the 100-period EMA. Further north, the next hurdle to watch is 1.6337, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Any follow-through buying could see a rally to 1.6430, the low of November 5.  

EUR/AUD 4-hour chart

• EUR/AUD trades sideways around 1.6300 even though the Australian job demand remained slower-than-forecast in October.
• RBA Bullock supports maintaining a restrictive stance until inflation gets under control.
• Trump’s policies are expected to keep the Eurozone economy on the backfoot for a longer term.

The EUR/AUD pair trades in a tight range near the key resistance of 1.6300 in Thursday’s North American session. The cross struggles for the direction even though the Australian Employment data for October came in weaker than expected.

The Australian labor market data showed that the economy added 15.9K new workers, lower than estimates of 25K and from 61.3K in September. The Unemployment Rate came in at 4.1%, in line with expectations and the prior release.

The impact of the weak employment data is expected to nominal on market speculation for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate outlook as the bank is more focused on taming price pressures with confidence that the job market remains steady. Also, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said on Wednesday that interest rates are needed to remain at their current levels until price pressures get under control.

According to economists at Capital Economics, the RBA is expected to consider pivoting to interest rate cuts after the first quarter of 2025.

Meanwhile, Euro’s (EUR) broad underperformance is expected to remain intact as Trump’s protectionist policies are expected to impact the Eurozone’s export sector significantly, being a leading trading partner of the United States (US). Apart from that, market participants are anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will fasten its policy-easing cycle amid fears of price pressures remaining below the bank’s target of 2%.

In the European session, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said, “All indicators on core inflation are pointing in the right direction.” He added, “If inflation converges towards our goal, then monetary policy will respond accordingly.”

• EUR/AUD tests an immediate barrier at a nine-day EMA at 1.6308 level near the upper boundary of the descending channel.
• An emergence of the bullish bias is possible If the 14-day RSI rises above 50 level.
• The primary support appears at its three-week low of 1.6163.

The EUR/AUD cross gains ground for the third consecutive day, trading near the 1.6300 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. On the daily chart, there are signs that the momentum may be shifting from bearish to bullish as the cross attempts to break above the descending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains just below the 50 level, indicating continued bearish momentum, though a shift could be on the horizon. If the 14-day RSI rises above 50, it would signal the emergence of bullish sentiment.

On the upside, the EUR/AUD cross tests the immediate resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 1.6308 level, aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel. A breakout above this channel could weaken the bearish bias and support the cross to navigate the region around its two-month high of 1.6600, which was recorded on November 1.

In terms of support, the EUR/AUD cross would meet support at its three-week low of 1.6163, which was recorded on November 7. A break below this level could reinforce the bearish bias and lead the cross to approach the “throwback support” at the psychological level of 1.6000.

EUR/AUD: Daily Chart

• EUR/AUD recovers from daily lows, and traders await the October job report in Australia.
• Technical stance shows EUR/AUD near key support; a drop below 1.6238 could target 1.6200 and lower supports.
• Upside potential exists with resistance at 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs at 1.6315, 1.6356, and 1.6386 respectively.

The shared currency stages a recovery against the Aussie Dollar on Wednesday, printing gains of over 0.18%, as traders await Australia’s job report. At the time of writing, the EUR/AUD trades at 1.6284 after hitting a daily low of 1.6238.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will reveal employment figures for October. The Employment Change is estimated to have created 25K jobs, below September’s outstanding 64.1K, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain at 4.1%.

EUR/AUD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/AUD is neutral to downward biased after the cross plunged below the 200, 100, and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), within a confluence zone at around 1.6315/86. Although the exchange rate aimed higher during the last three days, a drop below the November 13 low of 1.6238 could pave the way for 1.6200. A breach of the latter will expose intermediate support at 1.6161, the latest cycle low reached on November 7, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.6003.

Conversely, on further EUR/AUD strength, buyers must clear the 50-day SMA at 1.6315. If surpassed, up next would be the 100-day SMA at 1.6356, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.6386. Once surpassed, the following resistance would be the 1.6400 figure.

EUR/AUD Price Chart – Daily

• EUR/AUD edges lower to near 1.6250 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
• The cross maintains the negative view below the 100-period EMA, with the bearish RSI indicator. 
• The initial support level is seen at 1.6183; the first upside barrier is located at 1.6293. 

The EUR/AUD cross struggles to gain ground around 1.6250 on Wednesday during the early European session. The US proposed tariff increases on Chinese goods by US President-Elect Donald Trump undermine the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) as Australia is one of China’s largest exporters.

According to the 4-hour chart, the bearish outlook of EUR/AUD remains intact as the cross holds below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Furthermore, the downward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline near 46.50, suggesting that there could still be room for further downside in the near term. 

The initial support level for the cross emerges near the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.6183. Extended losses could see a drop to 1.6135, the low of October 18. The additional downside filter to watch is the 1.6100 psychological level. 

On the upside, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band near 1.6293 acts as an immediate resistance level for the price. The next hurdle is seen at 1.6322, the 100-day EMA. Any follow-through buying see a rally to 1.6500, round number. 

EUR/AUD 4-hour chart

• EUR/AUD gains some positive traction, though the bias seems tilted in favor of bearish traders.
• Worries about a fresh US-China trade war could undermine the Aussie and cap any further gains.
• A 'Death Cross' formation supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels.

The EUR/AUD cross attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day's slide, though it lacks bullish conviction. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.6235-1.6240 region, up less than 0.20% for the day as traders now look to German macro data – the final CPI print and ZEW Economic Sentiment. 

In the meantime, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues with its relative underperformance amid worries that US President-elect Donald Trump's protectionist stances could trigger a fresh US-China trade war. This, to a larger extent, overshadows the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance and continues to undermine the China-proxy Aussie, offering some support to the EUR/AUD cross. 

Meanwhile, Trump warned before the election that the European Union would have to pay a big price for not buying enough American exports. This, in turn, could strain the Eurozone’s export sector and potentially impact economic growth. Apart from this, a bullish US Dollar (USD) continues to exert some downward pressure on the shared currency and should keep a lid on the EUR/AUD cross. 

From a technical perspective, the formation of 'Death Cross' – the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing below the 200-day SMA – further warrants caution for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the EUR/AUD cross is to the downside. 

Hence, any subsequent move-up might continue to attract fresh sellers ahead of the 1.6300 round figure. This, in turn, should cap spot prices near the 50-day SMA, currently pegged near the 1.6325 region. A sustained strength beyond, however, could lift the EUR/AUD cross back towards the 1.6400 mark, or the 200-day SMA, which should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. 

On the flip side, the 1.6200 round figure, closely followed by the 1.6180 horizontal zone might continue to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below will reaffirm the negative bias and make the EUR/AUD cross vulnerable to weaken below the 1.6150-1.6145 support, towards the 1.6110-1.6100 area en route to the 1.6060-1.6050 region and the October low, around the 1.6000 psychological mark.

EUR/AUD daily chart

• Eurozone’s thin economic docket and German bond yield dip contribute to EUR’s decline.
• Upcoming Aussie data includes Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB Business Confidence.
• EUR/AUD technicals suggest potential further downside with key support near 1.6100.

The Euro began the week on a lower note against the Australian Dollar, drops over 0.45% late during the North American session. A risk-off mood trade in the currency market, keept investors worried about possible tariffs by the upcoming Trump’s administration.  The EUR/AUD trades at 1.6207, after reaching a daily high of 1.6284.

EUR/AUD falls as traders eye potential tariffs under Trump and await key Australian data

A scarce economic docket in the Eurozone and Australia, left traders adrift to sentiment linked to the newly elected US President Donald Trump. However, European Central Bank (ECB) members Yannis Stoumaras commented ECB rates will hit 2% goal in September of 2025.

Another reason behind the Euro’s fall was the drop of the 10-year German Bund yield, down two basis points to 2.33%.

In the meantime, the Aussie’s economic docket will feature on Tuesday the release of the Westpac Consumer Confidence for November. October’s reading was 89.8, and any measure below that level, would indicate that Australians are feeling less optimistic on the economy.

Later, the Aussie’s NAB Business Confidence for October, would be revealed. September came at -2.

On the Eurozone area, the schedule will feature German’s inflation rate, which is expected to edge up 0.4% MoM, exceeding September’s 0%. On a yearly basis, October’s inflation is expected to rise to 2%, from 1.6%.

EUR/AUD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/AUD remains consolidates, as shown in the daily chart. However, it’s slightly tilted to the downside, as the exchange rate persists below the confluence of the 20, 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This and the Relative Strengt Index (RSI) falling deeper, hints the cross could crack the 1.6200 in the short term.

In that event, the first support would be the 1.6100 psychological level, followed by major support at 1.6005, October 2 swing low. On the other hand, if buyers reclaim 1,6300, the next resistance area would be the confluence of daily SMAs at around 1.6327/1.6332.

• EUR/AUD is probably reversing its trend and starting a new downtrend. 
• After it peaked on October 31 it formed a bearish candlestick reversal pattern which is currently playing out.  

EUR/AUD has started to fall after forming a bearish Shooting Star Japanese candlestick reversal pattern (red-shaded rectangle on chart below) as it peaked on October 31. 

EUR/AUD Daily Chart 

In addition, a bearish down-day followed the day of the Shooting Star and added confirmation. 

Since then, EUR/AUD has continued selling off and there is evidence it is now in a short-term downtrend. Given the principle that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor a continuation lower. 

The next target is at 1.6400 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), followed by the cluster of major SMAs underneath at around the 1.6350s. 

The pair may have completed an “abc” three-wave Measured Move pattern at the October 31 highs, further adding to the evidence a down cycle is likely taking over. 

• EUR/AUD declines sharply on a “combo” of the ECB deciding to cut interest rates and robust Australian employment data.
• The Euro weakened after the ECB decided to salami slice another 0.25% off its policy rates due to disinflation and weaker activity. 
• The Australian Dollar was bolstered by employment data showing 64.1K people joined the workforce in September. 

EUR/AUD falls by almost three-quarters of a percent to the 1.6180s on Thursday after a combination of stronger-than-expected Australian labor market data boosted the Australian Dollar (AUD) whilst the Euro (EUR) depreciated ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut interest rates, and remained under pressure as the bank telegraphed a mildly negative economic outlook for the region going forward. 

EUR/AUD Daily Chart

The Aussie Dollar strengthened on Thursday, putting downward pressure on EUR/AUD after fresh data showed that the number employed Australians rose by 64,100 in September, which was well above expectations of 25,000 and the downwardly-revised 42,600 of the previous month. Of these, full-time employees made up the majority with 51,600, whilst the remaining 12,500 were employed part-time, acording to data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. 

The Unemployment Rate, which had been expected to creep higher to 4.2%, actually remained the same as in August at 4.1%. 

The data overall painted a picture of a robust labor market and reduced the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have to cut interest rates in the coming months, since high levels of employment are associated with higher levels of spending and inflation. This, in turn, supports AUD since relatively higher interest rates strengthen a currency by attracting more foreign capital inflows. 

EUR/AUD declined further in the run up to the ECB meeting policy decision as investors expected the ECB Governing Council to take a dovish line (in favor of lower interest rates) due to recent data showing a marked slowdown of economic activity in the Eurozone. 

Further, the second estimate of Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) released just before the ECB meeting revealed a downward revision in the headline HICP to 1.7% in September from the preliminary estimate of 1.8%, which itself was well below the 2.2% in August. The 1.7% revision plotted inflation well below the ECB’s 2.0% target. 

The ECB policy statement indicated the governing council’s decision to cut the ECB’s three main interest rates, including the benchmark Deposit Facility Rate by 0.25% to 3.25% was taken because the “disinflationary process is well on track” and recent data showed “ downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.”

However, the statement gave no hint of whether the ECB was planning any further reductions in future meetings, retaining a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting” approach to monetary policy. 

In her press conference after the decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that “Incoming data suggest that activity is weaker than expected," and pointed to “slowing employment growth.” Yet, she also spoke of labor market resilience and said she expected the economy “to strengthen over time.” 

Lagarde further added that the decision to cut rates had been “unanimous” and added “all information since the September meeting was heading lower."

• EUR/AUD could be forming a new up leg after bottoming at the start of the month. 
• It has formed various reversal patterns and signals that point to a likely extension higher.

EUR/AUD bottomed out at 1.6000 and started rising last week, recovering back up to the 1.6300s before pulling back to where it is currently consolidating in the 1.62s. 

EUR/AUD Daily Chart 

It is possible this is the start of a new leg higher within a long-term range that stretches from a floor at about 1.6000 and a sloping ceiling currently in the 1.65s. If so, then prices will probably continue higher. 

A break above Tuesday’s high of 1.6354 would likely indicate a continuation to the red 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.6433.  A break above that, would probably lead to a move up to the top of the range at around 1.6550. 

The blue Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has crossed above its red signal line, giving a buy signal and adding to the bullish evidence.

EUR/AUD formed a bullish Three White Soldiers Japanese candlestick pattern after the October 3 bottom (green shaded rectangle on chart), indicating a possible reversal of the short-term trend. This occurs after a downtrend when three up days form consecutively. 

Although the pair formed a bearish Shooting Star candlestick on Tuesday after the market peaked and then fell back down to near its open, the day ended green and not red lessening its bearish significance. It was also not followed by a down day immediately after which would have given added bearish confirmation (red-shaded rectangle on chart).

• EUR/AUD is falling steeply after inflation data from Germany and Spain came in lower than expected. 
• The cooler inflation data increases the chances of the ECB cutting interest rates in September. 
• The RBA continues to hold back from cutting interest rates because of stubbornly  high inflation in Australia. 

EUR/AUD is down by almost three quarters of a percent on Thursday, trading in the 1.6270s, after the release of German and Spanish inflation data revised the outlook for interest rates in the Eurozone as a whole, weakening the Euro (EUR) in the process. 

German preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data fell to 1.9% YoY in August from 2.3% in July, and came in below economists expectations of 2.1%, according to data from Destatis. 

The sharper-than-expected decline in German CPI followed similar data from Spain which showed Spanish CPI in the month of August falling to 2.2% from 2.8% in July, and also coming in well below estimates of 2.4%, according to INE. Data for the region as a whole is scheduled for release on Friday. 

The disinflationary number has increased expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates by 0.25% at their September meeting. Such a move would weaken the Euro as lower interest rates attract less inflows of foreign capital. 

At the last ECB meeting, the President of the ECB Christine Lagarde adopted a “wait and see approach” and said future interest rate decisions would be dependent on incoming data. Given the incoming data has been more disinflationary than expected, the market is pricing in a greater chance of the ECB moving to lower rates. 

“With the growth outlook quite soggy, the ECB is widely expected to resume easing in September. 75 bp of total easing by year-end is nearly priced in,” says Dr. Win Thin, Global Head of Markets Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH). 

Commentary from ECB officials has fallen short of endorsing a rate cut so far. 

ECB Executive Board Member Philip Lane, said on Thursday, that although wages in the Eurozone were expected to rise in the second half of 2024 they were “peaking now” and likely to lose momentum in 2024-5. 

Earlier in the day, the Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, Christodoulos Patsalides said that if the ECB’s projections “continue to materialize, there’s nothing to prevent the Governing Council from reducing interest rates”, adding that “Policymaking is still data-dependent.” 

EUR/AUD is falling because inflation in Australia is higher than in Europe. Australia’s monthly CPI rose 3.5% YoY in July,  and although down from the 3.8% in June it came in above estimates 3.4%, and remains well above the levels for the Eurozone as a whole (2.6% in July). 

Policymakers in Australia are less certain the time is right to reduce interest rates with the Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last meeting revealing that members considered raising interest rates to tame inflation before ultimately deciding to hold steady. 

RBA Governor Michelle Bullock also said recently that it was still “premature” to consider cutting rates. She warned that inflation remains “too high” and is not expected to return to the central bank’s 2%-3% target until the end of next year.