CFD Trading Rate Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen (AUDJPY)

• AUD/JPY attracts some buyers to near 96.70 in Thursday’s Asian session, up 0.40% on the day. 
• BoJ kept its policy unchanged at its December meeting on Thursday. 
• The RBA dovish expectations might cap the upside for the cross. 

The AUD/JPY cross drifts higher to around 96.70, snapping the two-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy announcements. 

As widely expected, the BoJ kept the short-term policy rate target steady in the range of 0.15%-0.25% following a two-day policy meeting that ended Thursday. According to the summary of the BoJ policy statement, Japan's economy is recovering modestly, but with certain vulnerabilities. Inflation expectations are increasing modestly. However, uncertainty over Japan's economic and pricing future remains strong.

The Japanese central bank will examine whether the current wage hike momentum in Japan continues into next year, as some smaller firms have struggled to pass on higher costs to consumers. Later on Thursday, investors will closely monitor the BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech for fresh impetus. 

On the other hand, the rising bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates sooner than expected might weigh on the Aussie. Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA, predicted a February RBA rate cut as the central bank had made an “unambiguous shift in the dovish direction.”

• AUD/JPY extends its losses as the AUD remains under pressure due to renewed concerns about China's economy.
• National Australia Bank maintains its forecast for the first RBA rate cut at the May 2025 meeting.
• The Japanese Yen struggles as the BoJ is widely expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday.

AUD/JPY loses ground for the second consecutive session, trading around 97.00 during the European hours on Wednesday. The AUD/JPY cross extends its losses as the Australian Dollar (AUD) faces challenges due to the increased likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates sooner and more significantly than initially expected.

On Wednesday, the National Australia Bank (NAB) maintained its forecast for the first RBA rate cut at the May 2025 meeting, though they acknowledge February as a possibility.

The Aussie Dollar remains under pressure due to renewed concerns about China's economy, Australia’s key trading partner, following weak economic data. Chinese Retail Sales missed expectations in November, adding strain on policymakers after President Xi Jinping indicated a desire to boost household consumption last week.

However, the downside of the AUD/JPY cross could be restrained as the Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles as traders seem to be convinced that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates steady on Thursday.

Japan's Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday an unexpected improvement in the trade deficit for November, which narrowed to ¥117.6 billion from October's ¥462.1 billion. This improvement was primarily attributed to robust export growth, which rose by 3.8% year-on-year in November, while imports fell by 3.8%.

Japan's trade data pointed to weak domestic demand amid an uncertain economic outlook and concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans are contributors to refraining the Bank of Japan from hiking interest rates.

• AUD/JPY gains ground due to a potential for momentum shift to bullish from bearish bias.
• An emergence of a bullish sentiment is possible if the RSI rises above the 50 mark.
• The initial support appears at the psychological level of 98.00, followed by the nine-day EMA at 97.50.

The AUD/JPY cross extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 98.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 50 level, indicating a bearish momentum is still in play. If the RSI rises above 50, it would signal an emergence of a bullish bias.

Additionally, a review of the daily chart indicates that the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 50-day EMA. This alignment suggests that short-term price momentum is weaker compared to the longer-term trend, signaling the potential for continued price weakness.

The initial support for the AUD/JPY cross is located at the psychological level of 98.00, followed by the nine-day EMA at 97.50. A decisive break below this level could open the gates for the currency cross to navigate the region around its four-month low of 93.59, which was recorded on September 11.

On the upside, the AUD/JPY cross could test its primary resistance near the 50-day EMA at the 98.92 level. A decisive break above this level would signal strengthening bullish momentum, potentially driving the pair toward the five-month high of 102.41, last reached on November 7.

AUD/JPY: Daily Chart

• AUD/JPY climbs to near 97.40 in Thursday’s Asian session, adding 0.20% on the day. 
• The Australian dropped to 3.9% in November from 4.1% in October, stronger than expected.
• BoJ rate hike uncertainty drags the JPY lower. 

The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 97.40 during the Asian session on Thursday. The Aussie gains traction after the release of the Australian employment report. Traders will keep an eye on the Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the fourth quarter (Q4), which is still later on Tuesday 

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Thursday that the country’s  Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 3.9% in November from 4.1% in October. This reading came in below the market consensus of 4.2%. Additionally, the Australian Employment Change arrived at 35.6K in November from 12.1K in October (revised from 15.9K). 
 
This figure came in better than the 25.0K expected. The Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the upbeat employment report. This report prompts traders to lower their bets for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut and boosts the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

On the other hand, the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike in December might cap the downside for the cross. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that the next rate hike is approaching, supported by solid underlying inflation data, while the dovish policymaker Toyoaki Nakamura warned last week that the Japanese central bank must move cautiously in raising rates. Meanwhile, the escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East and global economic uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the JPY. 

• AUD/JPY depreciates as traders exercise caution ahead of the US CPI report.
• The Australian Dollar faced challenges as the RBA Governor Bullock stated that upside inflation risks have eased.
• The JPY gained ground as robust Japan's PPI data suggested the possibility of further BoJ’s rate hikes.

AUD/JPY continues to lose ground for the second successive day, trading around 96.30 during early European hours on Wednesday. The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD) faces challenges against its major peers due to market caution ahead of crucial US November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which are expected to be released later in the North American session.

The downside of the AUD/JPY cross could be attributed to a weaker Aussie Dollar following less hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock in the post-meeting conference held on Tuesday.

RBA Governor Bullock highlighted that while upside inflation risks have eased, they persist and require ongoing vigilance. Bullock also stated that the RBA will closely monitor all economic data, including employment figures, to guide future policy decisions. The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% in its final policy meeting in December.

The AUD/JPY pair faced downward pressure due to a stronger Japanese Yen (JPY), driven by robust Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which suggests the possibility of further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

However, the JPY lacks strong bullish momentum, as uncertainty lingers over the BoJ’s willingness to implement another rate hike in December. While BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently hinted that the timing for the next rate hike is approaching, supported by solid underlying inflation data, dovish BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura has warned against premature rate increases, adding to the skepticism surrounding the BoJ’s policy direction.

• AUD/JPY trades in negative territory around 96.50 in Tuesday’s Asian session, losing 0.77% on the day. 
• The RBA decided to keep the OCR on hold at 4.35% at its December meeting on Tuesday. 
• Geopolitical risks might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the JPY. 

The AUD/JPY cross weakens to near 96.55 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision as the tone in the statement has turned slightly dovish. 

The RBA kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold at 4.35% following the conclusion of its December policy meeting. The decision came in line with market expectations. The RBA made no changes to its policy settings for the ninth consecutive meeting. The Aussie attracts some sellers following the RBA interest rate decision.

According to the RBA Monetary Policy Statement, the board members are gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts, but risks remain. The policymaker further stated that the outlook remains uncertain and broad and will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions.

The uncertainty over the timing for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again weighs on the Japanese yen (JPY) against the shared currency. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a willingness to hike interest rates again if the BOJ grows more confident that inflation would remain around 2% due to rising wages and robust domestic demand. Traders have priced in nearly a 28% chance of a BOJ rate hike this month, down from around 66% at the end of last month.

Nonetheless, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly after the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, could boost the safe-haven currency like the JPY. On Monday, the rebel group that toppled Syria's President Bashar Al-Assad agreed to hand power to Mohammed Al Bashir to form a transitional administration. Investors will closely watch the development surrounding geopolitical risks in this region as the collapse of the Syrian leader regime could lead to a conflict involving regional countries.

• AUD/JPY attracts heavy selling following the release of softer domestic GDP growth figures.
• A slightly oversold RSI on the daily chart prompts intraday short covering around the cross.
• Bets for an early RBA rate cut and December BoJ rate-hike expectations should cap the upside.

The AUD/JPY cross dropped to its lowest level since September 18 during the Asian session on Wednesday as softer Australian GDP print lifted bets for an early interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Moreover, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again in December contribute to the Japanese Yen's (JPY) relative outperformance and exert additional pressure on the currency pair. 

Spot prices, however, managed to rebound over 70 pips from sub-96.00 levels and currently trade around 96.70, down 0.20% for the day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing slightly oversold conditions and turns out to be a key factor that prompts some short-covering around the AUD/JPY cross. That said, the technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further gains.

Last week's breakdown below the 98.00 round figure was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory. This, in turn, suggests that any subsequent move up could be seen as a selling opportunity ahead of the 97.00 mark and cap the AUD/JPY cross near the 97.50 horizontal barrier. The latter might now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. 

On the flip side, the 96.00 round figure might continue to offer some support. A convincing break and acceptance below the said handle will reaffirm the negative outlook and pave the way for deeper losses. The AUD/JPY cross might then slide to the next relevant support near the 95.30 region en route to the 95.00 psychological mark. The downfall could eventually drag spot prices to the 94.45-94.40 horizontal support and the 94.00 mark.

AUD/JPY daily chart

• AUD/JPY tumbles to near 97.75 in Friday’s early European session, losing 0.73% on the day. 
• The negative outlook of the cross remains in play, but further consolidation cannot be ruled out amid oversold RSI condition. 
• The first downside target to watch is 97.45; the immediate resistance level is seen at 98.76. 

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 97.75 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains momentum after data released on Friday showed that Japan’s Tokyp Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated for the first time in three months, supporting the case for another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in December. 

According to the 4-hour chart, the bearish sentiment of AUD/JPY remains intact as the cross holds below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The downward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands below the midline. Nonetheless, the oversold RSI condition indicates that further consolidation cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term AUD/JPY depreciation.

The initial support level for the cross emerges near the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 97.45. Further south, the next contention level is seen at 96.60, the low of September 4. The additional downside filter to watch is 96.00, the low of September 19 and the psychological level. 

On the bright side, the first upside barrier for the cross is located at 98.76, the high of November 28. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 99.00 round mark. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 99.49, the low of November 19. The 100.00 psychological appears to be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. 

AUD/JPY 4-hour chart

• AUD/JPY holds positive ground around 98.30 in Thursday’s early European session.
• Japan’s foreign stock investments fell by ¥446B, weighing on the Japanese Yen. 
• The hawkish expectations of the RBA provide some support to the Aussie. 

The AUD/JPY cross recovers some lost ground to near 98.30, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. A generally positive risk tone and a decline in Japan’s foreign stock investments drag the Japanese Yen (JPY) lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Data released by the Ministry of Finance showed on Thursday that foreign investment in Japanese stocks fell by ¥446 billion for the week ending November 23, compared to investments of ¥127.6 billion in the previous week. Foreign capital outflows exert some selling pressure on the JPY and act as a tailwind for AUD/JPY. Nonetheless, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the JPY against the Aussie. 

On the other hand, the downside for the AUD might be limited due to the hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for October remained well within the Australian central bank target, but the RBA is likely to want more proof price rises have moderated before it will cut interest rates. Capital Economics' Mr. Thieliant said that price pressures are only moderating very slowly. 

"And with the RBA arguing at its latest meeting that it would need to see more than one good quarterly CPI print to be confident that such a decline is sustainable, we're comfortable with our forecast that the bank will only cut interest rates in the second quarter of next year,” added Thieliant.

• AUD/JPY continues its losing streak due to a strengthening bearish bias.
• A corrective rebound could be indicated if the 14-day RSI breaks below the 30 level.
• The currency cross may navigate the region around its four-month low of 93.59.

The AUD/JPY cross extends its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 98.40 during the European hours on Wednesday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 30, indicating a bearish market trend. If the RSI drops below 30, it would signal an oversold condition, potentially leading to a corrective rebound.

Additionally, an analysis of the daily chart suggests that the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses below the 50-day EMA, suggesting a bearish signal. This crossover indicates that the short-term momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend, which could signify the continued price weakness.

On the downside, the primary support for the AUD/JPY cross is located around the psychological level of 97.00, followed by the next support at 96.00 level. A decisive break below the latter could open the gates for the currency cross to navigate the region around its four-month low of 93.59, which was recorded on September 11.

To the upside, the AUD/JPY cross may test the primary resistance around the nine-day EMA at 99.92 level, followed by the 50-day EMA at 100.09 level. A break above these levels could weaken the bearish bias, potentially pushing the currency cross toward the four-month high of 102.41, reached on November 7.

AUD/JPY: Daily Chart

• AUD/JPY finds some support near the 99.00 mark and rebounds from a near two-month low.
• The technical setup favors bearish traders and supports prospects for further depreciation.
• A sustained strength beyond the 101.00 mark might negate the near-term negative outlook.

The AUD/JPY cross drops to its lowest level since early October during the Asian session on Tuesday, albeit it finds decent support and rebounds around 75-80 pips from the vicinity of the 99.00 round figure. Spot prices, however, remain below the 100.00 psychological mark and seem vulnerable amid US-China trade war concerns.

US President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. Adding to this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. This, in turn, drives some haven flows towards the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighs on the perceived riskier Aussie, exerting some downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross. 

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and support prospects for a further depreciating move. That said, resilience below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent bounce warrant some caution for bearish traders. This makes it prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 99.00 mark before positioning for deeper losses. The AUD/JPY cross might then slide below the 98.70-98.65 intermediate support and test the 98.00 mark.

On the flip side, any move up beyond the 100.00 mark is likely to confront some resistance near the Asian session high, around the 100.25-100.30 region, ahead of the 100.55-100.60 horizontal barrier. This is followed by the overnight swing high, around the 101.00 round figure, which if cleared could lift the AUD/JPY cross to the 101.55 intermediate resistance en route to the 102.00 mark. The momentum could eventually lift spot prices back towards the 102.30-102.40 region, or the highest level since July 24 touched earlier this month.

AUD/JPY daily chart

• AUD/JPY could gain ground due to potential foreign inflows amid an improved Australian share market.
• The AUD finds support from the RBA’s hawkish stance on future interest rate policies.
• The Japanese Yen could face challenges amid uncertainty surrounding the BoJ rate hikes.

AUD/JPY experiences volatility but remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around 100.50 during the early European hours on Monday. However, this downside of the AUD/JPY cross could be restrained as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may appreciate due to potential foreign inflows amid a rally in the domestic share market.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed to fresh all-time highs on Monday as Australian shares mirrored Wall Street's momentum. On Friday, the Dow Jones achieved another record-high close, contributing to the positive sentiment.

The AUD may also find support from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance on future interest rate policies, which limits the downside of the AUD/JPY cross. Market participants are now closely monitoring Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, a key indicator that could shape expectations for the RBA’s next monetary policy moves.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) could face headwinds amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans for rate hikes and a prevailing risk-on market environment. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at the possibility of another interest rate hike as early as December. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration is reportedly considering a $90 billion stimulus package aimed at mitigating the impact of rising prices on households.

Japan's Leading Economic Index, which assesses the economic outlook based on factors like job offers and consumer sentiment, was revised down to 109.1 for September, compared to the expected 109.4 reading. However, the index showed improvement from the final 106.9 in August—the lowest level since October 2020. Traders are now turning their attention to Tokyo's upcoming inflation and employment data, expected later this week.

• AUD/JPY depreciates as a Reuters survey indicated 56% of economists anticipating a BoJ rate hike in December.
• Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated the possibility of further rate hikes, highlighting the Yen's impact on economic and price stability.
• The Australian Dollar loses ground following the release of mixed domestic Judo Bank PMI data on Friday.

AUD/JPY continues its decline, nearing 100.30 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. This drop is likely due to a stronger Japanese Yen (JPY), following insights from a Reuters survey on expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ). According to the survey, 56% of economists anticipate the BoJ will raise interest rates at its December meeting, driven by the JPY’s depreciation and improving economic conditions.

Additionally, 90% of economists expect the BoJ to increase rates to 0.50% by the end of March 2025. The median forecast for the terminal rate is 1.00%, with estimates ranging from 0.50% to 2.50%. Furthermore, 96% of economists believe that a potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could prompt the BoJ to hike rates further, as his policies are expected to increase global inflation.

Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to address the Yen's impact on economic and price stability, suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes. Additionally, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration is considering a $90 billion stimulus package aimed at alleviating the burden of rising prices on households.

Recent data indicated that Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to a nine-month low of 2.3% year-over-year in October. Similarly, the annual core CPI, which excludes fresh food, also dropped to 2.3%, a six-month low, slightly above the forecast of 2.2%.

Additionally, the Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 50.2 in November, up from 49.7 in October, which had marked the lowest level in four months. However, the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since March, down from 49.2 in October, missing market expectations of 49.5.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens following the release of mixed Judo Bank PMI data from Australia on Friday. However, the AUD received support from a hawkish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding future interest rate decisions, which could help limit the downside for the AUD/JPY cross.

The Judo Bank Australia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in November from 47.3 in October, marking its 10th consecutive month of contraction, though the decline slowed to its weakest pace in six months. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 49.6 from 51.0, signaling the first contraction in services activity in ten months.

• AUD/JPY edges lower to around 101.05 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• Further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the RSI emerges in the neutral zone. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at 101.80; the key support level is seen at 100.00.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in a narrow range near 101.05 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will monitor the speeches from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock later on Thursday, which might offer some insights on inflation and rate hike expectations.

According to the daily chart, the cross remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting the support level is likely to hold rather than break in the near term. However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline, indicating the neutral momentum of the cross. 

The upper boundary of the Bollinger Band near 101.80 acts as an immediate resistance level for AUD/JPY. Extended gains above this level could see a rally to 102.40, the high of November 7. The additional upside filter to watch is 103.36, the low of July 23. 

On the flip side, the key support level is seen at the 100.00 psychological level. A breach of this level could pave the way to 99.42, the low of November 15. Further north, the next downside target emerges at 98.03, the low of September 27. 

AUD/JPY 4-hour chart

• AUD/JPY gains ground due to increased uncertainty surrounding the BoJ policy outlook.
• The AUD appreciated as the RBA Meeting Minutes emphasized the importance of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy.
• The risk-sensitive AUD could have faced challenges due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.

AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive session, trading around 101.20 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. This upside of the AUD/JPY cross is attributed to the tepid Japanese Yen (JPY) amid uncertainty surrounding the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

On Tuesday, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized the need for stable currency behavior in line with economic fundamentals, expressing increased vigilance over foreign exchange movements. Kato reiterated that the ministry would take necessary actions to manage excessive forex fluctuations.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains stable following the interest rate decision by China, Australia's close trading partner. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.1% for November.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that "tumbling iron ore prices and a softening labor market have impacted government revenue." following his Ministerial Statement on the economy on Wednesday. Chalmers outlined Australia's tough fiscal outlook, citing the weakening of China, a key trading partner, and the slowdown in the job market as contributing factors.

The upside of the AUD/JPY cross could be limited as the risk-sensitive AUD could have faced challenges as Ukraine deployed US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, signaling a significant escalation on the 1,000th day of the conflict. However, market anxieties lessened somewhat when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reassured that the government would take all necessary measures to avert a nuclear war.

• AUD/JPY may appreciate as daily chart analysis indicates a potential shift in price momentum from bearish to bullish.
• A bullish reversal could be possible if the nine-day EMA breaks above the 14-day EMA.
• A break above nine- and 14-day EMAs could cause the emergence of a bullish bias.

The AUD/JPY cross remains relatively flat around 100.50 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday, following a nearly 1% gain in the previous session. An analysis of the daily chart suggests a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish as the pair seeks to break above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Additionally, the nine-day EMA is currently just below the 14-day EMA. An upward crossover would signal a shift in the short-term price momentum from bearish to bullish, as it indicates that recent prices are gaining strength and pushing higher compared to the longer-term trend.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the 50 level, signaling a neutral market condition. Any further movement in the AUD/JPY cross will likely determine the next clear directional trend.

To the upside, the AUD/JPY cross is testing immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA around the 100.58 level, followed by the 100.61 level. A break above these levels could trigger a bullish bias, potentially pushing the currency cross toward the four-month high of 102.41, reached on November 7.

On the downside, the primary support for the AUD/JPY cross is located around the recent low of 99.42. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish outlook and could drive the cross toward the psychological support level of 99.00.

AUD/JPY: Daily Chart

• AUD/JPY depreciated as BoJ Ueda reiterated that interest rate hikes would proceed gradually.
• BoJ Governor Ueda also emphasized the importance of carefully assessing the impact of FX movements.
• RBA Bullock stated that current interest rates will remain unchanged until the central bank is confident about the inflation outlook.

The AUD/JPY cross has trimmed its daily gains and trades near 99.90 during European trading hours on Monday. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faced headwinds following remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Ueda reiterated that interest rate hikes would proceed gradually, contingent on the economy meeting expectations, but did not specify a timeline for future increases.

In a subsequent statement, Ueda emphasized the importance of carefully assessing the impact of foreign exchange (FX) movements on the economy, price forecasts, and associated risks at each policy meeting. He warned that failing to adjust monetary support appropriately could necessitate rapid rate hikes in the future. Ueda refrained from commenting on short-term FX fluctuations.

Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued a warning on Friday, stating that the government will closely monitor the foreign exchange (FX) market with heightened vigilance. Kato emphasized that appropriate measures would be taken to address any excessive movements in the currency.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained ground following hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock last Thursday. Bullock emphasized that current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive and will remain unchanged until the central bank is confident about the inflation outlook.

Recent data indicated a slowdown in employment growth for October, while the unemployment rate held steady, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. Market focus now shifts to the release of the latest RBA meeting minutes on Tuesday, which could offer further insights into the central bank's policy stance.

• AUD/JPY gains ground as Yen buyers adopt caution due to political instability in Japan.
• Japan’s Producer Price Index increased by 3.4% YoY in October and rose by 0.2% MoM.
• Australian PM Anthony Albanese shared about trade discussions with US President-elect Donald Trump during a phone call last week.

AUD/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 101.20 during European hours on Wednesday. The rise in the AUD/JPY pair is largely due to the weakened Japanese Yen (JPY), fueled by growing doubts over future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Japan’s fragile minority government is expected to complicate any plans for tightening monetary policy.

On the data front, the BoJ’s preliminary report on Wednesday showed that Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 3.4% year-over-year in October, exceeding expected 3.0% and previous 3.1% readings. Meanwhile, the PPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month, surpassing the expected flat growth for the month.

Meanwhile, the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its October meeting highlighted division among policymakers regarding additional rate hikes. Nevertheless, the central bank maintained its outlook, suggesting it could raise its benchmark rate to 1% by the second half of fiscal 2025, amounting to a total policy tightening of 75 basis points from the current rate.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained support after a radio interview with Australia's Prime Minister (PM), Anthony Albanese. Albanese said that he discussed trade relations with US President-elect Donald Trump during a phone call last week. He informed Trump that the US has a trade surplus with Australia and stressed that it’s in Washington’s best interest to maintain "fair trade" with its ally.

On Wednesday, Australia’s Wage Price Index showed a 3.5% year-over-year rise in the third quarter, down from the 4.1% growth seen in the previous quarter and slightly below the anticipated 3.6% increase. This represents the slowest wage growth since Q4 2022. Meanwhile, the quarterly index remained steady at 0.8% in Q3, just under the expected 0.9%.

• AUD/JPY depreciates as Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato cautions to take appropriate action to manage fluctuations in the FX market.
• The JPY may face challenges due to uncertainty around the BoJ rate hike plans.
• The AUD struggles as the Trump administration may impose immediate tariffs of 60% on imports from China.

AUD/JPY retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 100.70 during the early European hours on Tuesday. This dip comes as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains support following new verbal interventions from Japanese officials. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato cautioned that authorities would take "appropriate action" to address sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

However, the Yen's upside potential remains limited due to uncertainty around the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate-hike plans. The presence of a fragile minority government in Japan is expected to complicate any moves toward monetary tightening. Additionally, the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its October meeting indicated a split among policymakers on whether to pursue further rate hikes.

Additionally, the Australian Dollar (AUD) faces downward pressure amid concerns about potential tariff increases on Chinese goods by US President-Elect Donald Trump, as China is one of Australia’s largest export markets. Additionally, China’s latest stimulus measures fell short of investor expectations, raising concerns over demand from Australia’s largest trading partner and further weighing on the AUD.

On a positive note, the Westpac Consumer Confidence index rose by 5.3% to 94.6 points in November, marking its second consecutive month of improvement and the highest level in two and a half years. However, the index has stayed below 100 for almost three years, indicating that pessimists still outnumber optimists.

The Australian Dollar's downside may be somewhat limited, as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed a hawkish stance after last week’s interest rate hold. Bullock emphasized the need for restrictive monetary policy in light of persistent inflationary pressures and a strong labor market.