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11.04.2024 07:32USD/MXN Price Analysis: Remains below 23.6% Fibo. hurdle near mid-16.00s, or weekly high
- USD/MXN trades with a positive bias for the third straight day, albeit lacks follow-through.
- The technical setup supports prospects for the emergence of fresh selling at higher levels.
- Reduced Fed rate cut bets continue to underpin the USD and should limit the downside.
The USD/MXN pair attracts some buyers for the third successive day on Thursday, albeit lacks bullish conviction and remains below the weekly top, around the 16.50-16.55 area touched the previous day.
The aforementioned area represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April downfall and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. A sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/MXN pair to the next relevant hurdle near the 16.65-16.70 supply zone, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for a move towards challenging the 16.85 confluence hurdle, comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibo. level.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been recovering – are still holding in the negative territory and suggest that any meaningful upside might still be seen as a selling opportunity. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders and before confirming that the USD/MXN pair has bottomed out in the near term. In the meantime, the 16.30-16.25 area, or the lowest level since August 2015, is likely to protect the immediate downside, below which spot prices could slide to test the 16.00 round-figure mark.
The hotter US consumer inflation figures released on Wednesday forced investors to push back expectations for the first interest rate cut to September from June. Moreover, the markets are now pricing in the possibility of less than two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to stand tall near the YTD peak. This should assist the USD/MXN pair to defend the aforementioned handle, which if broken decisively should pave the way for the extension of an over a two-month-old downtrend witnessed from the YTD peak touched in January.
USD/MXN daily chart
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04.04.2024 11:20USD/CAD Price Analysis: At make or a break around 1.3500
- USD/CAD falls to 1.3500 due to multiple headwinds.
- The US Dollar corrects further on the weak US ISM Services PMI report.
- Higher Oil prices due to deepening supply concerns boosted the Canadian Dollar.
The USD/CAD pair falls sharply to the psychological support of 1.3500 in the European session on Thursday. The Loonie asset faces an intense sell-off as the US Dollar weakens and global Oil prices remain broadly strong.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which values the US Dollar against six major currencies, corrects to 104.00 as weak United States ISM Services PMI report for March casts doubts over economic resilience. 10-year US Treasury yields rose as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers demanded more data before considering rate cuts.
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech, "Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected," Powell maintained the baseline that rate cuts will start later this year only when policymakers "have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down.
Meanwhile, higher global oil prices have strengthened the Canadian Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX are slightly down near $85.35 but have come higher significantly this week. The Oil price rose after Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil refineries deepened supply concerns. It is worth noting that Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the United States, and higher Oil prices strengthen the Canadian Dollar.
Going forward, the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar will be guided by the Employment data from their respective economies, which will be published on Friday.
USD/CAD seems close to exploding the Ascending Triangle pattern formed on a daily time. The upward-sloping border of the aforementioned pattern is placed from December 27 low at 1.3177 while horizontal resistance is plotted from December 7 high at 1.3620. The chart pattern exhibits a sharp volatility contraction and a breakout can happen in any direction.
The asset drops below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3520, suggesting that the near-term appeal is weak.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among investors.
A downside move below February 22 low at 1.3441 would expose the asset to February 9 low at 1.3413. A breakdown below the latter would extend downside towards January 15 low at 1.3382.
On the flip side, the Loonie asset would observe a fresh upside if it breaks above December 7 high at 1.3620. This will drive the asset towards May 26 high at 1.3655, followed by the round-level resistance of 1.3700.
USD/CAD daily chart
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27.03.2024 12:57USD/CAD to remain firm or perhaps strengthen a bit more – Scotiabank
USD/CAD’s rebound from the mid-1.3500s reached on Tuesday has extended to the low 1.3600s again. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.
Support remains at 1.3550
Spot gains from the intraday low on Tuesday have returned the USD to the recent range peaks around 1.3600/1.2610 but the lift in funds has given momentum a slightly more positive undertone on the intraday chart which tilts risks to the USD remaining firm or perhaps strengthening a bit more.
On the face of it, resistance around the figure has been solid but the CAD needs to do more work to remove the risk of the USD rebound extending (potentially towards the low 1.3700s).
Support remains 1.3550 and (firmer) 1.3450/1.3455.
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25.03.2024 14:45Fed's Cook: There are risks to easing policy too much or too soon
"There are risks to easing policy too much or too soon as well as too late," Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said on Monday, per Reuters.
Key takeaways
"Careful approach to easing policy over time can ensure inflation returns sustainably to 2% while striving to maintain strong labor market."
"Risks to achieving US central bank's employment and inflation goals moving into better balance."
"Inflation has fallen considerably; labor market has remained strong."
"Path of disinflation, as expected, has been bumpy and uneven."
"Current low rate of increase on new rental leases suggests housing services inflation will continue to fall."
"Strong productivity growth could mean faster pace of wage growth not inflationary."
"Could be that some services prices still adjusting to increase in pandemic-era input costs."
"Comprehensive measures of wage growth show gradual cooling."
"Wage growth differential between job switchers, those staying in jobs has narrowed."
"Artificial intelligence a potentially significant source of productivity growth; that will take time."
Market reaction
The US Dollar stays under modest bearish pressure following these comments. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.23% on the day at 104.19.
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29.02.2024 09:29Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD could retest sub-$22.00 levels, or two-month trough
- Silver struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s modest bounce from a two-week low.
- The technical setup favours bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.
- A sustained strength beyond the 200-day SMA is needed to negate the bearish outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled its modest recovery from the $22.30-$22.25 region, or a two-week low touched the previous day. The white metal trades just below the mid-$22.00s during the first half of the European session and seems vulnerable to sliding further.
The recent failure to find acceptance above the very important and significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent slide from a multi-week high, around mid-$23.00s touched on February 16, validates the negative outlook. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started drifting in the negative territory and support prospects for a further near-term depreciating move for the XAG/USD.
That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the overnight swing low, around the $22.30$22.25 area before placing fresh bearish bets. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the fall towards retesting sub-$22.00 levels, or a two-month low touched in January. The downward trajectory could extend further and drag the white metal to the next relevant support near the $21.40-$21.35 region.
On the flip side, the daily peak, around the mid-$22.00s, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $22.70-$22.75 region. This is followed by the $23.00 round-figure mark, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally, though the momentum runs the risk of fizzling out near the 200-day SMA, currently around the $23.30 zone. This should cap the upside near the mid-$23.00, or the monthly peak.
Silver daily chart
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27.02.2024 14:08DXY: PCE must exceed forecasts or Euro inflation must underwhelm for the uptrend to continue – SocGen
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 2.4% since January on repricing of Fed cuts from six to three. Economists at Société Générale analyze Greenback’s outlook.
Headline +0.3%, Core +0.4%
PCE inflation is the next signpost on Thursday. We forecast headline +0.3% (2.4% YoY) and Core +0.4% (2.8% YoY). The spotlight will be on Core services after the 0.8% MoM spike in equivalent CPI two weeks ago.
The repricing of Fed cuts from six to three since January has boosted the DXY by 2.4% over the past eight weeks but doubts over sustained upswing have emerged following the failure to orbit 105.00 after CPI and PPI. PCE must exceed forecasts or Euro inflation must underwhelm for the trend to continue.
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20.02.2024 00:40RBA Minutes: Consider a hike of 25bp or an on hold decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its February monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, highlighting that the Board members decided the case for steady rates was the stronger one at this meeting. Additional details of the RBA Minutes suggest that the board agreed it was appropriate not to rule out another rise in rates.”
Key takeaways
“Board considered the case to hike by 25 bps or to hold steady.”
“Case to hold steady was the stronger one, appropriate given balanced risks to the outlook.”
“Data gave board more confidence inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.”
“However, it would "take some time" before the board could be confident enough on inflation.”
“So, the board agreed it was appropriate not to rule out another rise in rates.”
“Board noted hiking rates would not prevent it from cutting should the economy weaken.”
“Noted forecasts of inflation back in target in 2025 assumed no further rate hikes.”
“Goods inflation had fallen faster than expected, service inflation still high.”
“Data on labor market, consumption had been weaker than expected.”
“High inflation, higher tax, and interest payments had weighed on consumption.”
“Labour market relatively tight, wage growth slowing in some sectors.”
“Financial conditions restrictive on some measures, less so on others.”Market reaction
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6530, holding lower while losing 0.15% on the day.
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19.02.2024 15:14Current Dollar strength may only last another month or two – ING
Strong US jobs data and a higher-than-expected January CPI number have unnerved the disinflation trade in FX markets – namely, that of a benign decline in the Dollar. Economists at ING analyze Greenback’s outlook.
Benign Dollar decline to start next quarter
Federal Reserve officials accept that the disinflationary path will be a ‘bumpy’ one. However, we retain a view that inflation will remain on track towards policy targets. If that is the case, current Dollar strength may only last another month or two.
For the FX benchmark EUR/USD, that probably means that the downside is limited to the 1.0500/1.0700 area this month; recall that January and February are typically strong months for the Dollar.
We continue to expect a modest rally this summer and EUR/USD to end the year somewhere near 1.1500.
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16.02.2024 12:30US Dollar gears up for make or break moment with PPI ahead
- The US Dollar trades near Monday’s opening level.
- Markets are favouring Risk On again, forgetting about the inflation hiccup from Tuesday.
- The US Dollar Index could further dip below 104 if PPI confirms further easing ahead.
The US Dollar (USD) is telling two stories this week with, on the one hand, the recent uptick in inflation had hit a nerve in markets with a firm risk-off reaction on Tuesday. Though, the Retail Sales from Thursday show that dynamics for customers are changing with a substantial drop in numbers and the downward revision made traders completely write off the inflation report from Tuesday as a one off. This puts the US Dollar Index (DXY) flat to the same level where it opened on Monday with just one trading session left to look for direction.
On the economic data front, the decision on where the US Dollar will be heading, will be taken on the back of two key data points this Friday: The Producer Price Index elements and the University of Michigan print. These two elements will define the outcome for this week, with overall expectations to see further easing in the price pressure and a softer US Dollar on the back of that.Daily digest market movers: Last bets for this week
- The main event this Friday is around 13:30 GMT:
- This is when the Producer Price Index report for January:
- Monthly Headline PPI is expected to head from -0.2% to 0.1%.
- Yearly Headline PPI is seen heading from 1.0% to 0.6%.
- Monthly Core PPI is expected to abate from -0.1% to 0.1%.
- Yearly Core PPI seen heading from 1.8% to 1.6%
- Building Permits should rise from 1.493 million to 1.5093 million for January.
- Housing Starts are expected to remain unchanged at 1.46 million homes.
- This is when the Producer Price Index report for January:
- Around 15:00 GMT, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary findings for February:
- The Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to head from 79 to 80.
- Inflation expectations were previously at 2.9%, with no forecast pencilled in.
- US Federal Reserve Board member Michael Barr is due to speak near 14:10 GMT. Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed is due to speak near 17:10 GMT.
- Equities are happy with the backtracking on the forward push of rate cuts and are in the green. European equities are up over 0.50%, while US equity futures are mildly in the green.
- The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is now looking at the March 20th meeting. Expectations for a pause are 91.5%, while 8.5% for a rate cut.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades near 4.26%, roughly in the middle of this week’s range between 4.33% and 4.18%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: surprise support
The US Dollar Index (DXY) briefly bounced off the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 104.20 on Thursday. This comes as quite a surprise seeing its poor performance over the past few days and weeks. With two key elements still on the calendar this Friday, pressure could mount further and snap the 100-day SMA in the process.
Should the US Dollar jump Friday’s data to 105.00, 105.12 as key levels to keep an eye on. One step beyond there comes in at 105.88, the high of November 2023. Ultimately, 107.20 – the high of 2023 – could even come back into scope, but that would be when several inflation measures are coming in higher than expected for several weeks in a row.
As mentioned at the second paragraph above, that 100-day Simple Moving Average looks rather doubtful, near 104.24, so the 200-day SMA near 103.67 looks more solid. Should that give way, look for support from the 55-day SMA near 103.08.
US Dollar FAQs
What is the US Dollar?
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar?
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar?
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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30.01.2024 11:29ECB's Vujcic:April or June for a rate cut is not a big difference
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Boris Vujcic argued on Tuesday that it would not make a big difference whether the ECB starts lowering rates in April or June, per Reuters.
"I think it's more important that we achieve a kind of smooth transition," he added and continued:
"I think that 25 basis point moves are preferable to larger steps. It doesn't have to be continuous, there will some be pauses."
Market reaction
EUR/USD edged slightly higher following these comments and was last seen trading at 1.0845, rising 0.1% on the day.
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26.01.2024 08:58US Dollar: Rally on resilient US growth prospects or sell off on lower market interest rates? – ING
FX markets continue to trade in mixed fashion. Economists at ING analyze Dollar’s outlook.
Caught between a low rate and a strong US world
On the one hand, the mildly pro-risk sentiment should be a mild Dollar negative. Yet, decent US growth plus rates falling faster in Europe than in the US are keeping the Dollar mildly bid.
We doubt this challenge gets resolved in the short term, even though today’s US Core PCE deflator should again come in at a very well behaved 0.2% month-on-month, 2.0% year-on-year and point to the Fed’s job being done.
Given our view on a less-than-dovish FOMC meeting next week and potential market noise around Monday’s announcement of the US Quarterly Refunding, we suspect DXY can hold support levels near 103.00 and could nudge up towards the 104.00/104.25 area early next week.
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19.01.2024 12:21US Dollar: There is no compelling bearish story for the next week or so – ING
The US Dollar (USD) is still on top across G10 and EM FX. Economists at ING analyze Greenback’s outlook.
Dollar can stay broadly supported into the 31 January FOMC
We think the Dollar can consolidate after the recent gains, continuing to draw some benefits from Christopher Waller’s remarks earlier this week, which may have led markets to favour defensive positions heading into the FOMC on 31 January.
The only key data release in the US before then is the fourth quarter GDP figures next week, and barring major surprises there, there is no compelling bearish story for the next week or so.
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17.01.2024 13:02Soft stocks and firm or firmer US yields will keep the USD supported in the short run – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is firmer today but has edged off earlier highs versus the majors. Economists at Scotiabank analyze Greenback’s outlook.
Weak risk mood adds to USD support
While the January data round for the US got off to a poor start on Tuesday, with a much weaker-than-expected Empire Manufacturing Survey, the USD barely flinched. Higher US yields and supportive comments from the Fed’s Waller – who at the very least sounded in no rush to cut rates – helped keep the USD supported.
Soft stocks and firm or firmer US yields (Treasurys are little changed on the day) will keep the USD supported in the short run and help extend the USD’s corrective rebound in the early part of this year.
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