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Analytics, News, and Forecasts for CFD Markets: raw news — 15-04-2020.
FXStreet reports that analysts at TD Securities think the dollar's rise in response to the pinch of pain felt by global risk assets highlights that market sentiment may remain highly levered to price action as their causality works both ways.
“Gold has held the highest beta to pandemic sentiment in our cross-asset framework, suggesting that a further deterioration in sentiment is can put a dent in the yellow metal.”
“We expect that gold will ultimately outperform, as the Fed's massive QE program and the fiscal impulse will ultimately continue to suppress real rates.”
“We expect marginal short covering in silver, but don't expect much impact on price action with very minimal flow estimated.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories jumped by 19.248 million barrels in the week ended April 10. Economists had forecast a surge of 11.676 million barrels.
At the same time, gasoline stocks climbed by 4.914 million barrels, while analysts had expected a gain of 6.386 million barrels. Distillate stocks surged by 6.280 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 1.437 million barrels.
Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. reduced by 100,000 barrels a day to 12.300 million barrels a day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day last week, down by 194 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.
FXStreet reports that strategists at Credit Suisse believe in oil prices not much driven by the agreed production cuts in the coming months, but rather by the level of virus-stricken demand.
“Given uncertainty of the immediate demand and always questionable quota discipline of producers, Brent prices may fall to between $25 and $30 per barrel of Brent.”
“The future of oil prices will depend on whether the probable V-shaped restoration of demand would be met by supply both from production and storages. Assuming the pandemic does not take a new turn for the worse after early summer, Brent prices may revert to above $40 per barrel by the end of the year.”
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Implied stock buildup of 12 mil bpd in 1H threatens to overwhelm logistics
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Forecasts a drop in global oil demand by a record 9.3 mil bpd
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Output deal by OPEC+ and other countries will not immediately rebalance the market
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Oil production cuts will lower the peak supply
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April oil demand set to fall 29 mln bpd YoY to level last seen in 1995.
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Q2 demand set to fall 23.1 mln bpd YoY and in December to fall 2.7 mln bpd YoY.
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Global oil supply set to plunge by record 12 mln bpd in May after OPEC+ producer cut pact.
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Non-OPEC output could fall by 5.2 mln bpd in Q4 and by 2.3 mln bpd for 2020.
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Predicts output falls by other producers, chiefly US and Canada, of around 3.5 mln bpd in coming months on lower prices.
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Forecasts 2020 global refining throughput to fall by 7.6 mln bpd to 74.3 mln bpd.
| Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
|---|---|---|
| Brent | 28.71 | -6.51 |
| WTI | 20.29 | -8.77 |
| Silver | 15.71 | 2.48 |
| Gold | 1726.256 | 0.82 |
| Palladium | 2222.63 | 0.99 |
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