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31.07.2019
22:30
Australia: AIG Manufacturing Index, July 51.3
22:30
Schedule for today, Thursday, August 1, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI July 49.3 49.6
01:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter II 4.5% 2.8%
01:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter II -0.5% 1.8%
01:45 China Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI July 49.4 49.6
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI July 51.9 50.0
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI July 45 43.1
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI July 47.6 46.4
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing July 48 47.7
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435
11:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes    
11:00 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter    
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1676 1678
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 206 214
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI July 50.6 50.0
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m June -0.8% 0.3%
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing July 51.7 52
19:00 U.S. Total Vehicle Sales, mln July    
23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes    
20:14
Major US stock indexes finished trading below zero

Major US stock indexes have declined significantly, a catalyst for which were the outcome of the Fed meeting and statements by Fed Chairman Powell, who made it clear that lowering the rate is not the beginning of a long mitigation cycle, but an adjustment in the middle of the cycle,

The Fed lowered the rate by 25 bp, as market participants expected. For such a decision were all, except for two members of the FOMC. The Fed described the state of the economy as strong, but also said that “in the light of the consequences of events in the world, for the prospects of the economy and restrained inflationary pressure”, lowering rates is now the right step. This is the first reduction in rates under the chairmanship of Powell, as well as the first decrease since the end of 2008, when the Central Bank lowered rates to almost zero / The Fed statement indicated that the labor market remains strong and economic growth continues at a moderate pace, while continue to spend cash.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell said that lowering rates should be viewed as a “mid-cycle adjustment” that will help the economy develop as the Fed wants. Powell noted that he thinks that in general, a change in the Fed's monetary policy this year from hard to soft will help the economy. He added that lowering the rate would “work through trust channels,” as well as by reducing the cost of short-term borrowing.

In addition, the last round of trade negotiations between the US and China ended on Wednesday without any major breakthrough. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that both sides will meet again in Washington in September.

Market participants also analyzed a report from ADP, which showed that employment in the private sector increased by 156,000 jobs in July, after rising by 112,000 jobs in June. Economists predicted that employment would increase by 150,000 jobs, compared with the addition of 102,000 jobs that were originally reported in the previous month.

Most of the components of DOW finished trading in the red (26 out of 30). The outsider was Microsoft Corporation (MSFT; -2.70%). The leader of growth were shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL; + 2.57%).

Almost all sectors of the S & P recorded a decline. The largest decline was shown by the technology sector (-1.2%). Only the conglomerate sector grew (+ 0.3%).

At the time of closing:

Dow 26,864.27 -333.75 -1.23%

S & P 500 2,980.38  -32.80 -1.09%

Nasdaq 100 8,175.42 -98.19 -1.19%

19:50
Schedule for tomorrow, Thursday, August 1, 2019
Time Country Event Period Previous value Forecast
00:30 Japan Manufacturing PMI July 49.3 49.6
01:30 Australia Export Price Index, q/q Quarter II 4.5% 2.8%
01:30 Australia Import Price Index, q/q Quarter II -0.5% 1.8%
01:45 China Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI July 49.4 49.6
07:50 France Manufacturing PMI July 51.9 50.0
07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI July 45 43.1
08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI July 47.6 46.4
08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing July 48 47.7
11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.75% 0.75%
11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 435 435
11:00 United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes    
11:00 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter    
12:30 U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims 1676 1678
12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 206 214
13:45 U.S. Manufacturing PMI July 50.6 50.0
14:00 U.S. Construction Spending, m/m June -0.8% 0.3%
14:00 U.S. ISM Manufacturing July 51.7 52
19:00 U.S. Total Vehicle Sales, mln July    
23:50 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes    
19:00
DJIA -1.07% 26,907.49 -290.53 Nasdaq -1.14% 8,179.24 -94.37 S&P -1.28% 2,974.61 -38.57
18:00
U.S.: Fed Interest Rate Decision , 2.25% (forecast 2.25%)
16:00
European stocks closed: FTSE 100 7,586.78 -59.99 -0.78% DAX 12,189.04 +41.80 +0.34% CAC 40 5,518.90 +7.83 +0.14%
15:04
New Zealand’s unemployment rate likely to increase by 4.3% in Q2 – Westpac

Michael Gordon, the senior economist at Westpac, expects the New Zealand’s unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% in the June quarter, reflecting the recent softening in business conditions and hiring.

  • “We also expect some pick-up in employment and participation after they both surprisingly fell in the previous quarter.
  • Given the risk of mixed signals, we recommend focusing on the unemployment rate and the QES measure of jobs growth.
  • Wage growth is expected to accelerate, largely due to a big increase in the minimum wage.”


14:40
EIA’s report reveals much-bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories

EIA’s report reveals much-bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that crude inventories tumbled by 8.496 million barrels in the week ended July 26. Economists had forecast a fall of 2.750 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks decreased by 1.791 million barrels, while analysts had expected a drop of 1.500 million barrels. Distillate stocks reduced by 1.791 million barrels, while analysts had forecast an increase of 1.000 million barrels.

Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. climbed by 900,000 barrels a day to 12.200 million barrels a day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, down by 365,000 barrels per day from the previous week.

14:30
U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories, July -8.496 (forecast -2.588)
14:26
White House press secretary: Chinese side confirmed commitment to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural goods

  • Says July 30-31 talks were constructive, expects negotiations to continue in Washington in early September

14:18
Eurozone's growth slows down to 0.2% in Q2 – Rabobank

Rabobank's analysts note that the Eurozone growth slowed down to 0.2% q/q in 2019Q2, down from 0.4% q/q in 2019Q1.

  • “Quarterly growth figures also slid in three out of the four Eurozone’s largest economies: Italy (0.0%), Spain (0.5%) and France (0.2%).
  • Survey data indicates that growth in Q3 is unlikely to pick up.
  • Overall, we expect the Eurozone to grow by 1.3% y/y in 2019, but risks are to the downside.”

14:01
U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , July 44.4 (forecast 50.6)
13:59
Chicago business activity declines further in July

MNI Indicators’ report revealed on Wednesday that business activity in Chicago contracted this month.

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago purchasing manager's index (PMI) came in at 44.4 in July, down from an unrevised 49.7 in June. Economists had forecast the index to increase to 50.6. This marked the steepest contraction in Chicago's activity since December 2015.

A reading above 50 indicates improving conditions, while a reading below this level shows worsening of the situation.

According to the report, four of the five components of the headline indicator were in contraction territory this month, with only Supplier Deliveries above 50. Meanwhile, the Production indicator fell 22% m-o-m to hit a 10-year low. Demand remained muted, highlighted by the New Orders indicator that subsided further into contraction. Order Backlogs remained below 50 for the third consecutive month, although it increased slightly on June’s reading. The Employment indicator dropped into contraction for the first time since October 2017 and hit the lowest level since October 2009.

 

13:35
Canada's GDP surprises to the upside for a third consecutive month in May – RBC

Josh Nye, the senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), notes that Canada’s GDP grew 0.2% in May, 0.1 ppt above consensus, as goods production saw another solid increase.

“Canadian GDP surprised to the upside for a third consecutive month in May. Growth was once again broadly-based with most services industries recording gains (retail and wholesale being key exceptions) and goods production posting another solid increase.

Today’s solid reading for May leaves us tracking annualized growth of nearly 3% in Q2—above our earlier estimate and the Bank of Canada’s latest forecast. Strong growth in the last several months underscores why the BoC has maintained a neutral policy bias even as the Fed is set to lower rates, starting this afternoon.”

13:32
U.S. Stocks open: Dow +0.16, Nasdaq +0.16% S&P +0.05%
13:28
Before the bell: S&P futures +0.19%, NASDAQ futures +0.40%

U.S. stock-index futures rose moderately on Wednesday, as investors cheered strong quarterly results/guidance from Apple (AAPL),while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision.


Global Stocks:

Index/commodity

Last

Today's Change, points

Today's Change, %

Nikkei

21,521.53 

-187.78

-0.86%

Hang Seng

27,777.75 

-368.75

-1.31%

Shanghai

2,932.51 

-19.83

-0.67%

S&P/ASX

6,812.60 

-32.50

-0.47%

FTSE

7,604.78 

-41.99

-0.55%

CAC

5,522.18 

+11.11

+0.20%

DAX

12,190.51 

+43.27

+0.36%

Crude oil

$58.60


+0.95%

Gold

$1,442.30


+0.03%

12:49
Wall Street. Stocks before the bell

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)


3M Co

MMM

178

0.37(0.21%)

302

ALTRIA GROUP INC.

MO

48.56

0.06(0.12%)

3959

Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ

AMZN

1,902.00

3.47(0.18%)

23490

Apple Inc.

AAPL

216.73

7.95(3.81%)

707599

Boeing Co

BA

348.5

1.04(0.30%)

5648

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

133.28

0.33(0.25%)

689

Cisco Systems Inc

CSCO

56.3

-0.17(-0.30%)

12180

Exxon Mobil Corp

XOM

75.26

-0.09(-0.12%)

1301

Facebook, Inc.

FB

197.31

0.27(0.14%)

36097

Ford Motor Co.

F

9.54

-0.01(-0.10%)

7989

General Electric Co

GE

10.9

0.38(3.61%)

10586822

General Motors Company, NYSE

GM

40.46

0.03(0.07%)

1621

Goldman Sachs

GS

221.96

0.56(0.25%)

3777

Google Inc.

GOOG

1,225.08

-0.06(-0.00%)

2662

Intel Corp

INTC

51.52

-0.18(-0.35%)

12673

International Business Machines Co...

IBM

149.98

0.21(0.14%)

1541

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

132.51

0.43(0.33%)

1133

JPMorgan Chase and Co

JPM

115.69

0.10(0.09%)

475

McDonald's Corp

MCD

212.95

0.61(0.29%)

2479

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

83.52

0.25(0.30%)

3304

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

140.58

0.23(0.16%)

27560

Nike

NKE

87.49

0.29(0.33%)

252

Pfizer Inc

PFE

38.97

0.18(0.46%)

58771

Procter & Gamble Co

PG

119.85

-0.56(-0.47%)

6635

Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ

SBUX

96.68

0.03(0.03%)

6341

Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ

TSLA

243.79

1.53(0.63%)

24097

The Coca-Cola Co

KO

53.78

0.06(0.11%)

3111

Twitter, Inc., NYSE

TWTR

41.1

0.10(0.24%)

19011

UnitedHealth Group Inc

UNH

256.3

1.37(0.54%)

2481

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

56.75

0.12(0.21%)

4337

Visa

V

182.36

0.83(0.46%)

4879

Wal-Mart Stores Inc

WMT

112.31

0.25(0.22%)

316

Walt Disney Co

DIS

145.45

0.52(0.36%)

6716

Yandex N.V., NASDAQ

YNDX

39.04

0.17(0.44%)

18631

12:46
Target price changes before the market open

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $240 from $230 at BofA/Merrill

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $265 from $245 at Monness Crespi & Hardt

12:42
Canada’s economy grows more than expected in May

Statistics Canada announced on Wednesday that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent m-o-m in May, following a 0.3 m-o-m advance in April.

That was above economists’ forecast for a 0.1 percent growth.

In y-o-y terms, the Canadian GDP rose 1.4 percent in May.

According to the report, the May advance was led by a rebound in manufacturing (+1.2 percent m-o-m), with 13 out of 20 industrial sectors expanding. At the same time, the construction sector rose 0.9 percent m-o-m in May and the transportation and warehousing sector grew 1.0 percent m-o-m. On the contrary, the wholesale trade fell 1.4 percent m-o-m in May, the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector declined 0.8 percent m-o-m and retail trade reduced 0.4 percent m-o-m.

Overall, goods-producing industries rose 0.6 percent m-o-m, while, services-producing industries edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m.

12:30
China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI to increase to 50.1 in July – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities are forecasting the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI to increase to 50.1 in July from 49.4 in June.

  • “The Caixin survey participants consist of mainly small and medium-sized companies and this is where much of the targeted lending has been aimed at. Taken together with the likely positive impact of China’s the trade truce with the US, it will likely help to fuel some improvement in the Caixin survey, with a move back into expansion territory following a contraction in June.”


12:30
U.S.: Employment Cost Index, Quarter II 0.6% (forecast 0.7%)
12:30
Canada: GDP (m/m) , May 0.2% (forecast 0.1%)
12:30
Canada: Industrial Product Price Index, m/m, June -1.4% (forecast -0.1%)
12:30
Canada: Industrial Product Price Index, y/y, June -1.7%
12:20
U.S. private employers add 156,000 jobs in July - ADP

The employment report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 156,000 jobs in July.

Economists had expected a gain of 150,000.

The increase for June was revised up to 112,000 from the originally reported 102,000.

“While we still see strength in the labor market, it has shown signs of weakening,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “A moderation in growth is expected as the labor market tightens further.”

Meanwhile, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, noted, “Job growth is healthy, but steadily slowing. Small businesses are suffering the brunt of the slowdown. Hampering job growth are labor shortages, layoffs at bricks-and-mortar retailers, and fallout from weaker global trade."

12:15
U.S.: ADP Employment Report, July 156 (forecast 150)
12:03
China’s manufacturing PMI contracts in July, albeit at a slower pace than before - ING

Iris Pang, ING's economist, notes that China's headline manufacturing PMI continued to contract, though the slight rise in the index to 49.7 from 49.4, suggests a slower rate of contraction than before.

  • "Within all the subsectors of the PMI, orders are the main indicators of future manufacturing strength. New orders and export orders were 49.8 and 46.9 respectively, though edging higher from the previous month, which saw 49.6 and 46.3, respectively. Both indices remain below 50. That is, manufacturing orders are still falling but at a slightly slower pace. 
  • We see two opposing trends in the manufacturing sector, one for export-related industries, another for infrastructure project related industries. This is also evident in industrial production and fixed asset investment data. 
  • Export related orders, including technology exports, e.g. semiconductors, have been falling due to the trade and technology war. 
  • In contrast to export orders, we expect that infrastructure-related orders will rise after the funding is diverted to infrastructure projects. This is indicated by the rising raw material price index (50.7 in July from 49 a month ago).  
  • We expect domestic demand will boost some parts of the manufacturing sector. But it is still too early to judge whether the manufacturing PMI will overcome the contraction trends and revert to a figure of 50 or higher, representing expansion. Forthcoming activity data will shed more light on this question."

11:45
Company News: General Electric (GE) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

General Electric (GE) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.17 per share (versus $0.19 in Q2 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.12.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $28.831 bln (-1.1% y/y), in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $28.833 bln.

The company also raised its FY 2019 EPS guidance to $0.55-0.65 from $0.50-0.60 (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.59) and raised Industrial Segment Organic Revenue Growth to mid-single-digit growth from low- to mid-single-digit growth.

GE rose to $10.94 (+3.99%) in pre-market trading.

11:27
Canada's GDP likely to grow by 0.2% in May – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts are expecting Canada’s industry-level GDP to rise by 0.2% in May, slightly above the market consensus for a 0.1% advance, with the goods sector driving the headline print on a rebound in the manufacturing industry.

  • “Services should see a more subdued performance owing to a sharp pullback in wholesale trade, although a 0.2% increase would still leave Q2 tracking well above trend (1.8%) and BoC projections (2.3%).
  • Factory prices for June will be published alongside GDP, with the market consensus calling for a 0.2% decline on the month.”

11:07
U.S. weekly mortgage applications fall

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume in the U.S. fell 1.4 percent in the week ended July 26, following a 1.9-percent decrease in the previous week.

According to the report, applications to purchase a home dropped 3.0 percent, while refinance applications inched up 0.1 percent.

Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate remained unchanged at 4.08 percent

“Despite healthy demand, inadequate supply levels continue to hold back some would-be buyers,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. 

11:06
Company News: Advanced Micro (AMD) posts quarterly financials in line with analysts' estimates

Advanced Micro (AMD) reported Q2 FY 2019 earnings of $0.08 per share (versus $0.14 in Q2 FY 2018), in line with analysts’ consensus estimate.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $1.531 bln (-12.8% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.523 bln.

The company also issued downside guidance for Q3 FY 2019, projecting revenues of $1.75-1.85 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.94 bln.

For the full year 2019, AMD now expects revenue to increase a mid-single-digit percent over 2018, down from high single-digit growth prior and versus analysts’ consensus estimate of +6.3%.

AMD fell to $32.12 (-5.17%) in pre-market trading.

10:58
Focus on Fed, ADP jobs report and Chicago PMI - TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the U.S. Fed to deliver its first rate cut in over ten years, with a 25bp reduction in the fed funds target range.

  • “Given crosscurrents persist as a threat for the outlook and inflation remains subdued, we look for the Fed to leave the door open to further easing. We expect the statement to show modest, mark-to-market changes and for two of the FOMC voters to dissent.
  • Separately, we'll also have the first look at employment data for July, with the release of the ADP jobs report; and further indication of manufacturing activity for July with the Chicago PMI.”

10:51
Company News: Apple (AAPL) quarterly earnings beat analysts’ forecast

Apple (AAPL) reported Q FY 2019 earnings of $2.18 per share (versus $2.34 in Q3 FY 2018), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $2.10.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $53.809. bln (+1.0% y/y), generally in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $53.394 bln.

The company also issued upside guidance for Q4 FY 2019, projecting revenues of $61-64 bln versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $60.92 bln and gross margin of 37.5-38.5% versus analysts’ consensus estimate of 38.3% and 38.3% last year.

AAPL rose to $217.34 (+4.10%) in pre-market trading.

10:37
U.S. and China's trade negotiators are set to meet again in September for next round of talks - Xinhua

  • Report says trade talks were candid and efficient
  • Both sides discussed China increasing U.S. agricultural purchases
  • As well as U.S. creating good conditions for China to follow through on those purchases
  • There were also deep exchanges over major issues of mutual interest

10:21
Eurozone's Q2 GDP growth slows to 0.2% as core inflation weakens - ING

Bert Colijn, the senior economist at ING, notes that Q2 GDP growth in the Eurozone slows to 0.2%. 

  • "The Eurozone economy has not been able to maintain its surprising growth rate of Q1 as softening global demand and uncertainty about the outlook dampen economic activity. While 0.2% is still a decent growth pace, concerns about the economy in the second half of the year are not
  • decreasing, despite monetary stimulus being on its way.
  • The first quarter of 2019 was strong and had caused confusion among analysts as surveys had pointed to a weak start to the year. We can now conclude that one-offs lifted economic activity in Q1 and that surveys had indicated continued weakness as the underlying trend. That raises a red flag for Q3 as both the Economic Sentiment Indicator and the PMI point to a strong drop in industrial production in July. That means that Q3 will likely remain subdued at best from a growth perspective.
  • For the European Central Bank, the question is not whether to stimulate the economy more, but by how much it will do so in September. Today's inflation data should confirm the dovish view of a softening inflation outlook as core inflation was weaker than expected at 0.9%. As weaker demand and uncertainty about the future hold, the core inflation outlook seems to be weakening. That gives even more ammunition for the ECB to act, as if it needed any more persuading."

09:58
Fed: Market currently fully pricing a 25bps cut – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that today is the long-awaited Fed decision day, where markets are fully pricing in what is expected to be the first-rate cut since December 2008.

“The question still on investors’ minds is by how much the Fed will cut, and whether there’ll be any messages about the future path of rates going forward. The market currently fully prices a 25bp cut and implies a 16% chance of a larger 50bp cut. Although the Fed have given no real encouragement to the notion of a 50bps cut it’s worth noting that the last time the Fed began a series of rate cuts, in September 2007, their opening move was a 50bp cut, and a similar 50bp cut happened when the Fed began cutting in January 2001. Our US economists predict a 25bp cut, but they say that “the key question is how Chair Powell and the Committee frame the narrative for further easing through year end.” With this in mind, investors will be paying close attention to Chair Powell’s press conference. Our economists write that they “do not expect the Committee to pre-commit to another cut in September”, but instead the amount of further easing is going to be data dependent.”

09:45
Japan's government cuts inflation view in latest economic projections

The Japanese Cabinet Office submitted its latest medium-to-long term economic and fiscal projections:

  • Inflation seen reaching 2% during fiscal year 2023 in its most optimistic scenario (previously fiscal year 2022)

  • Real growth reaching around 2%, nominal growth about 3.2% to 3.4% over the medium-to-long-term under most optimistic scenario

  • Inflation is not seen reaching 2% through fiscal year 2028, will hover below 1% in baseline scenario

  • Real growth reaching a little over 1%, nominal growth about 1.2% to 1.5% over the medium-to-long-term under baseline scenario

  • The government cites current lower levels of inflation as a reason for the delay under its most optimistic scenario. 

  • As for growth projections, the baseline scenario also saw a downgrade in nominal growth as January projections had it pinned for about 1.5% to 1.7% over the medium-to-long-term.

09:35
Euro area unemployment fell slightly in June

According to the report from Eurostat, the euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.5% in June 2019, down from 7.6% in May 2019 and from 8.2% in June 2018. This is the lowest rate recorded in the euro area since July 2008. The EU28 unemployment rate was 6.3% in June 2019, stable compared with May 2019 and down from 6.8% in June 2018. This remains the lowest rate recorded in the EU28 since the start of the EU monthly unemployment series in January 2000.

Eurostat estimates that 15.674 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 12.377 million in the euro area, were unemployed in June 2019. Compared with May 2019, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 36 000 in the EU28 and by 45 000 in the euro area. Compared with June 2018, unemployment fell by 1.205 million in the EU28 and by 1.032 million in the euro area.

In June 2019, 3.176 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 2.251 million were in the euro area. Compared with June 2018, youth unemployment decreased by 239 000 in the EU28 and by 179 000 in the euro area. In June 2019, the youth unemployment rate was 14.1% in the EU28 and 15.4% in the euro area, compared with 15.2% and 17.0% respectively in June 2018.

09:25
Euro area annual inflation down to 1.1% in July

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.1% in July 2019, down from 1.3% in June, in line with expectations, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat. The headline inflation rate was the lowest reading in 17 months.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to have the highest annual rate in July (2.0%, compared with 1.6% in June), followed by services (1.2%, compared with 1.6% in June), energy (0.6%, compared with 1.7% in June) and non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, compared with 0.3% in June).

Core inflation, which strips out the volatile components of unprocessed food and energy and which the ECB closely looks at in policy decisions, also fell to 1.1% in July from 1.3% in June. The even more narrow measure excluding also alcohol and tobacco prices that many market economists look at was down to 0.9% from 1.1%.

09:09
Eurozone GDP growth slowed in the second quarter

According to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the second quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2019, GDP had grown by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU28 in the second quarter of 2019. Economists had expected a 1.0% increase in the euro area. In the previous quarter, GDP had grown by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU28.

09:01
Eurozone: Unemployment Rate , June 7.5% (forecast 7.5%)
09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y, July 0.9% (forecast 1%)
09:00
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, July 1.1% (forecast 1.1%)
09:00
Eurozone: GDP (QoQ), Quarter II 0.2% (forecast 0.2%)
09:00
Eurozone: GDP (YoY), Quarter II 1.1% (forecast 1%)
08:56
Chinese and US negotiators had an efficient and constructive deep exchange - Global Times

The Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times Hu Xijin making some comments on the US-China trade talks concluded earlier today.

“Based on what I know, Chinese and US negotiators had an efficient and constructive deep exchange on Wednesday. The two sides discussed increasing purchase of US farm products and the US side agreed to create favorable conditions for it. They will hold future talks.”

08:46
NZ: Unemployment rate likely rose to 4.4% in Q2 – ANZ

Australia and New Zealand Bank’s analysis team is expecting that the New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in Q2, as weakness in the economy filtered through to the labour market.

“Survey indicators and job ads suggest employment growth was weak in Q2, consistent with subdued GDP growth. Wage inflation is expected to remain flat at 2.0% y/y, with a quarterly increase supported by minimum wage increases and previous tightening in the labour market. The higher unemployment rate should set the scene for the RBNZ to cut the OCR at the August MPS the following day, and signal that an even lower OCR is likely needed.”

08:29
Spain GDP grows at slowest pace in 5 years - INE

Statistical office INE said that Spain's economy grew at the slowest pace in five years in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product grew 0.5 percent sequentially in the second quarter, slower than the 0.7 percent expansion seen in the first quarter. This was the weakest since the second quarter of 2014 and below the forecast of 0.6 percent.

On a yearly basis, economic growth eased slightly to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent a quarter ago. 

Growth in household consumption and government spending eased to 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. At the same time, gross fixed capital formation dropped 0.2 percent, reversing the 1.4 percent increase. Further, exports logged an increase of 1.8 percent and imports gained 1 percent.

08:25
EUR/USD: Starting to recover – Commerzbank

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD has starting to recover from just above 1.1110/06, the April and May lows.

“We would consider a close above 1.1176/81 (mid-June low and March low) enough of a trigger to signal recovery to the 55 day ma at 1.1239 and the highs from last week at 1.1285. But while capped here it will remain on the defensive. Below 1.1100 will introduce scope to the 1.0974 2018-2019 support line, which in turn guards the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement. Initial resistance lies at 1.1285, the 11th July high and this guards the more important 55 week ma at 1.1372. The market will need to regain the 55 week ma at 1.1372 to generate upside interest.”

08:10
The number of unemployed in Germany remained almost unchanged in July

Federal Statistical Office said, from the beginning of the summer break, unemployment rose by 59,000 to 2,275,000 from June to July. Adjusted for the seasonal influences, a slight increase of 1,000 is calculated for July compared to the previous month. In the area of ​​unemployment insurance, the seasonally adjusted rise in the wake of the economic downturn is more pronounced. Compared to the previous year, 49,000 fewer people were registered as unemployed. The unemployment rate increases by 0.1 percentage points to 5.0 percent. Compared to July of last year, it has decreased by 0.1 percentage points. The unemployment rate calculated by the Federal Statistical Office according to the ILO employment concept was 3.1 percent in June.

Underemployment, which also includes changes in labor market policies and short-term disability, has not changed seasonally adjusted since the previous month. Overall, under-employment in July 2019 was 3,201,000. That was 48,000 less than a year ago.

07:55
Germany: Unemployment Rate s.a. , July 5% (forecast 5%)
07:55
Germany: Unemployment Change, July 1 (forecast 2)
07:38
Optimism among smaller British manufacturers tumbled in July - CBI

Optimism among smaller British manufacturers tumbled to a three-year low in July, hit by a slowing global economy and the Brexit crisis at home, although consumers remain relatively upbeat, surveys on Wednesday showed.

The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) gauge of optimism among small- and medium-sized (SME) manufacturers fell to -28 from -12 in April, its lowest level since July 2016, just after Britain voted to leave the European Union.

A separate indicator of consumer confidence from market research company GfK rose in July to -11 from -13 in June, beating forecasts of economists but broadly in line with its range this year.

Overall, the two figures chimed with other data that show deep pessimism in British businesses about the outlook but resilience among consumers.

"With orders falling and output and headcount stalling, the new Prime Minister must restore confidence and set out a pro-enterprise path that supports SME manufacturers. Securing a Brexit deal ahead of the October deadline remains a top priority for smaller manufacturers." CBI economist Alpesh Paleja said.

07:19
Eurozone: GDP and inflation in focus – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities point out that it’s a very busy day for Eurozone’s data with German unemployment, Q2 GDP estimates for Spain, Italy, and the Eurozone, and July HICP estimates for France, Italy, and the Eurozone.

“For the Eurozone figures, we look for core CPI to slip to 1.0% y/y in July (mkt: 1.0%), and likely remain around that level for most of the rest of the year, and for headline HICP to slip to 1.1% y/y (mkt: 1.1%). For the Eurozone we look for Q2 GDP to decelerate to 0.3% q/q (mkt: 0.2%), with details showing further divergence between a healthy services sector and struggling manufacturing sector. We're less confident in our upside forecast though after yesterday's disappointing French print.”

06:59
France: consumer price growth slowed slightly in July

According to the provisional estimate from Insee, over a year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should slow down slightly in July 2019 after an acceleration in the previous month (+1.1% after +1.2% in June and +0.9% in May). This slight drop in inflation over a year should result from a slowdown in the prices of energy, services and tobacco. Contrariwise, food prices should be more dynamic than in June and those of manufactured goods should decrease barely less.

Over one month, consumer prices should fell back by 0.2% in July, after +0.2% in June. The prices of manufactured goods and tobacco should fell, due to the summer sales. Those of energy should drop more than in the previous month. Services prices should gather pace, due to the stronger rise in the prices of transport and “other services” transport. Finally, tobacco prices should increase slightly.

Year on year, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices should slow down (+1.3% after +1.4% in June). Over one month, it should fell back by 0.2%, after +0.3% in the previous month.

06:47
France: CPI, y/y, July 1.1%
06:46
France: CPI, m/m, July -0.2%
06:31
UK house price growth remained subdued in July

British house prices rose weakly in July and uncertainty about Brexit and its impact on the economy are likely to drag on the market, mortgage lender Nationwide said.

House prices increased by 0.3% compared with a year earlier after rising by 0.5% in June. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase. In monthly terms, house prices in July also rose by 0.3%, a stronger than the median forecast for a rise of 0.1%.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “Annual house price growth remained below 1% for the eighth month in a row in July, at 0.3%. While house price growth has remained fairly stable, there have been mixed signals from the property market in recent months. Surveyors report that new buyer enquiries have increased a little, though key consumer confidence indicators remain subdued. Data on the number of property transactions points to a slowdown in activity, though the number of mortgages approved for house purchase has remained broadly stable. Housing market trends will remain heavily dependent on developments in the broader economy. In the near term, healthy labour market conditions and low borrowing costs will provide underlying support, though uncertainty is likely to continue to exert a drag on sentiment and activity". 

06:17
Germany retail sales rose sharply in June compared to May

According to provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in June 2019 was in real terms 1.6% and in nominal terms 0.9% smaller than in June 2018. The number of days open for sale was 24 in June 2019 and 26 in June 2018.

Compared with the previous year, turnover in retail trade was in the first six months of 2019 in real terms 2.2% and in nominal terms 2.9% higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year.

When adjusted for calendar and seasonal variations, the June turnover was in real terms 3.5% and in nominal terms 3.6% higher than in May 2019. Economists had expected a 0.5% increase in real terms.

Retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco grew by 3.2% in real terms and 2.7% in nominal terms in June 2019 compared with June 2018, with sales in Super Markets, hypermarkets and consumer markets down by 3.0% in real terms and 2.6% in nominal terms.  In real terms, food retail sales declined by 4.6% in real terms and 3.2% in nominal terms compared with June 2018. 

In the retail trade of non-food products, sales in June 2019 fell by 0.6% in real terms compared with the same month of the previous year and rose by 0.2% in nominal terms. The largest increase in real terms was the Internet and mail order business, which recorded a real 1.4% and a nominal 1.8%.

06:00
United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index , July 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
06:00
United Kingdom: Nationwide house price index, y/y, July 0.3% (forecast 0.1%)
06:00
Germany: Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y, June -1.6% (forecast 2.7%)
06:00
Germany: Retail sales, real adjusted , June 3.5% (forecast 0.5%)
05:20
Options levels on wednesday, July 31, 2019 EURUSD GBPUSD

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1271 (3240)

$1.1241 (1534)

$1.1221 (383)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1154

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1128 (3279)

$1.1089 (4733)

$1.1045 (2713)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 73918 contracts (according to data from July, 30) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (4733);


GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2409 (135)

$1.2364 (121)

$1.2323 (395)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2164

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2068 (266)

$1.2030 (164)

$1.1987 (212)


Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 9 is 16469 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2051);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 9 is 20691 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2450 (2400);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.26 versus 1.20 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 30

 

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

05:16
Japan: Construction Orders, y/y, June -4.2%
05:01
Japan: Housing Starts, y/y, June 0.3% (forecast -3.4%)
05:00
Japan: Consumer Confidence, July 37.8 (forecast 38.5)
02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 64.78 1.66
WTI 58.28 2.14
Silver 16.55 0.67
Gold 1430.54 0.28
Palladium 1513.01 -2.51
01:30
Australia: Private Sector Credit, y/y, June 3.3%
01:30
Australia: Private Sector Credit, m/m, June 0.1% (forecast 0.3%)
01:30
Australia: CPI, q/q, Quarter II 0.6% (forecast 0.5%)
01:30
Australia: CPI, y/y, Quarter II 1.6% (forecast 1.5%)
01:30
Australia: Trimmed Mean CPI y/y, Quarter II 1.6% (forecast 1.5%)
01:30
Australia: Trimmed Mean CPI q/q, Quarter II 0.4% (forecast 0.4%)
01:00
China: Non-Manufacturing PMI, July 53.7 (forecast 54.0)
01:00
China: Manufacturing PMI , July 49.7 (forecast 49.6)
01:00
New Zealand: ANZ Business Confidence, July -44.3 (forecast -34.9)
00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 92.51 21709.31 0.43
Hang Seng 40.09 28146.5 0.14
KOSPI 9.2 2038.68 0.45
ASX 200 19.3 6845.1 0.28
FTSE 100 -39.84 7646.77 -0.52
DAX -270.23 12147.24 -2.18
Dow Jones -23.33 27198.02 -0.09
S&P 500 -7.79 3013.18 -0.26
NASDAQ Composite -19.72 8273.61 -0.24
00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.68732 -0.39
EURJPY 121.119 -0.13
EURUSD 1.11542 0.09
GBPJPY 131.927 -0.77
GBPUSD 1.21502 -0.54
NZDUSD 0.6612 -0.27
USDCAD 1.31506 -0.07
USDCHF 0.99014 -0.14
USDJPY 108.578 -0.22

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