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31.05.2011
19:11
Dow +71.22 at 12512.80, Nasdaq +25.54 at 2822.40, S&P +7.97 at 1339.07

U.S. equities continue to hold gains. Strength in technology helped the Nasdaq holding a gain of 0.9% while the Dow and S&P trail with 0.6% gains.
Conglomerate Siemens (SI 133.36, +5.17) is trading higher by 4.1% on word that Germany will discontinue the use of nuclear energy by 2022. The co is a large producer of wind turbines, and is seeing gains on the heels of that announcement.
First Solar (FSLR 123.22, +1.85) and other alternative energy plays are also seeing strength attributable to the news.


18:49
Analysts at BofA-ML say "We now expect Q2 GDP growth of just 2%. We have also trimmed our year-end 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 3.6%."
18:38
USD/JPY recovers

USD/JPY currently holds around Y81.33 after posting a high of Y81.77 earlier (55-day moving average at Y81.89). As to supports, rate held above Y80.69/Y80.72 (strong support) for 3 straight days. Bids are seen at Y80.95/Y81.00 and at Y80.70/75.

18:16
Dow +77.96 at 12519.54, Nasdaq +24.36 at 2821.22, S&P +8.41 at 1339.51

Stocks have climbed off their lowest levels of the session, and have broken through mid-morning resistance levels.
The S&P 500 Industrials Index is posting a gain of 0.5%. General Dynamics (GD 74.47, +3.21) is the top performing stock in the S&P 500 as it trades higher by 4.5% following a broker upgrade after the company received a $744 million contract from the U.S. Navy, with an option upping the contract to $1.3 billion.


17:51
Soc Gen on EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY earlier broke over Y117.20/25 resistance and its 55-day moving average at Y117.40 as well as the May 6 peak at Y117.58, to post a new 3-week high around Y117.80, before retreating. The 100-day (around Y115.30 today) is the initial support. Soc Gen technical analysts say that the cross will need to see a clear cut break above the declining resistance line, which comes in at Y119.20 today before the focus will be turned to the April high of Y123.35. Cross
holds currently at Y117.03.

17:30
US focus: Euro climbs on optimism for Greek Aid

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on speculation European officials will approve additional aid to Greece next month, dimming the prospects of a sovereign-debt restructuring.
Today the Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said the region’s leaders will decide on a new aid package by the end of June and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of Greece’s debt. Germany may stop demanding an early rescheduling of bonds, according to a report.
The euro stayed higher after a report showed German retail sales rose in April as unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost 19 years, fueling bets the European Central Bank will signal next week that it may raise interest rates for a second time this year.
Data showed sales increased 0.6% from March, when they fell 2.7%. Economists had a forecast a 1.8 percent gain. Sales increased 3.6 percent from a year earlier.
A separate European Union report showed euro-region inflation slowed in May to 2.7% from April’s 2.8%, the fastest pace since October 2008.
Inspectors from the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank are set to conclude a review of Greece’s progress in meeting the terms of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($158 billion) bailout in coming days. The EU will then formulate its plan for additional aid.


The yen pared losses versus the dollar and euro after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in May to a six-month low, and other data showed a drop in home prices and weakening manufacturing.
The Canadian dollar gained the most this year versus its U.S. counterpart after the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate at 1%, where it has been since September.



16:42
CANADA, Fin Min Flaherty: Canadian interest rates will rise, only question is the timing.
16:41
CANADA, Fin Min Flaherty: Canadian interest rates will rise, only question is the timing.
15:53
AUD/USD holds weak

AUD/USD holds at $1.0662, on the low side of the day's $1.0637 to $1.0756 range. Earlier the pair broke above $1.0724 (50% retracement of the slide from $1.1011 to May 25 low on $1.0437), but stalled ahead of the 61.8% retrace (at $1.0792). The focus is on Wednesday's Q1 GDP release (median estimate at -1.1% vs 0.7% in Q4).

14:36
GERMANY: coalition MP calls for Greece to exit EMU
14:00
US CONF BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDX MAY 60.8 V APR 66.0
13:51
US: May Chicago PM index data
  • prices paid 78.6;
  • new orders 53.5;
  • employment 60.8,
  • inventories 61.6;
  • supplier deliveries 63.8;
  • production 56.0.
13:46
US: May Chicago PM index 56.6 vs 67.6
13:36
Before the bell: Stocks poised for strong gains


U.S. stocks are poised to start the week in the black Tuesday, after a Wall Street Journal article stirred up hopes of a fresh bailout for Greece.
World markets rallied after the Journal reported Germany is shifting its stance to consider lending more money to Greece.
Economy: According to the closely watched S&P Case-Shiller Index, home prices recently fell to their lowest levels since the housing bubble burst. Prices tumbled 4.2% in the first quarter, sending home prices back to levels not seen since mid-2002.
Investors will also received data from the Chicago Purchasing Managers index at 13:45 GMT, followed by the Conference Board's consumer sentiment data at 14:00 GMT.
Economists expect the Chicago PMI index fell to a reading of 62.5 from April's 67.6, while consumer confidence rose to 66.3 versus April's 65.4.
World markets:

13:24
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4410, $1.4420/25, $1.4440/55, $1.4480, $1.4500/10
Bids: $1.4390/80, $1.4365/50, $1.4335, $1.4325/15

USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.90/95, Y82.05/10, Y82.20/25
Bids: Y81.10/00, Y80.95/00, Y80.75/70

13:01
Bank of Canada leaves key interest rates unchanged

Overnight rate target remains at 1.00%, bank rate 1.25%

12:32
Canada Industrial Prices +0.5% in April from March
12:28
European session: The euro pared monthly loss

 

Data:
07:55 Germany Unemployment (May) seasonally adjusted -8K -30K -37K
07:55 Germany Unemployment rate (May) seasonally adjusted 7.0% 7.0% 7.1%
09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (May) Y/Y preliminary 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%
09:00 EU(17) Unemployment (April) 9.9% 9.9% 9.9%

 

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on speculation European officials will approve additional assistance for Greece as part of efforts to counter the region’s debt crisis.
The euro pared its first monthly loss since November after Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said European leaders will decide on a new aid package by the end of next month and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of the nation’s debt. 
A separate European Union report showed euro-region inflation slowed in May to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent in April. April’s reading was the fastest since October 2008.
The yen fell Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut Japan’s credit rating.
The yen dropped the most in two weeks versus the euro after Moody’s put Japan’s Aa2 local and foreign-currency bond ratings on review for a downgrade, citing weakening growth.

 

EUR/USD: the pair  shown low in the field of $1.4420 then returned back below  $1.4400.
GBP/USD: the daddy  receded from the high reached at the Asian session. 
USD/JPY: the pair  become stronger in around Y81.60.

Today's main event is Bank of Canada's rate decision at 13:00 GMT before Chicago PMI is due to come at 14:00  GMT. 

 

11:39
JPM: "The global economy is losing momentum."

 

"After an above-trend 3.1% annualized gain last quarter, real global GDP growth is expected to downshift to a below-trend pace of 2.6% in the current quarter, a downward revision of 0.3%-pt since last week. This deceleration owes to a sharp downshift in global industry. Weak April 
production releases from the US and China were followed by weak readings across EM Asia. Momentum looks likely to have slipped further in May as large declines in US regional business surveys complement the 3pt drop in the flash Euro area manufacturing PMI."

 

11:27
FTSE +0.92% 5,994, CAC +1.50% 4,002, DAX +1.99% 7,303
11:07
OIL:

WTI July Crude continues to make gains with a move to $102.57. resistance ahead seen at $103.22 with a break there allowing a move to $105.85. Oil currently trades around $102.30

10:38
European focus: The euro rose

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on speculation European officials will approve additional assistance for Greece as part of efforts to counter the region’s debt crisis.
The euro pared its first monthly loss since November after Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said European leaders will decide on a new aid package by the end of next month and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of the nation’s debt. 
A separate European Union report showed euro-region inflation slowed in May to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent in April. April’s reading was the fastest since October 2008.
The yen fell versus all 16 of its major counterparts as stocks surged and Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut Japan’s credit rating.
The yen dropped the most in two weeks versus the euro after Moody’s put Japan’s Aa2 local and foreign-currency bond ratings on review for a downgrade, citing weakening growth.

10:16
ECB DRAGHI: ECB will always be guided by price stab. mandate
  • ECB won't be distracted by debt crisis,dependent banks
  • Greater need now for monetary policy normalization
  • Inflation risk rising, cites 30% rise in food/energy
  •  Debt crisis, dependent banks won't distract ecb
  •  EMU faced with most difficult test since its creation
  •  No shortcut out of eurozone debt crisis
  •  National govts must completely implement adjustments
  •  Return to fin. health possible, cites italy in 1990s
  •  Global current account imbalances rising again
  •  Rigid fx, savings&demand differences behind imbalances
  •  Systemically important banks must be allowed to fai
09:37
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4400, $1.4300, $1.4220, $1.4205 
USD/JPY  Y80.25, Y80.75, Y81.00, Y81.40, Y81.50, Y82.25, Y82.30, Y82.50
EUR/JPY Y115.30, Y115.70, Y116.05, Y116.85
GBP/USD $1.6440, $1.6225
GBP/JPY Y132.75
USD/CHF Chf0.8500
AUD/USD $1.0650, $1.0770, $1.0845
AUD/JPY Y85.80, Y88.00

09:12
FTSE +1.02% 5,999, CAC +1.46% 4,000, DAX +1.93% 7,298
08:30
Asian session:

The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on speculation European officials will approve additional assistance for Greece as part of efforts to counter the region’s debt crisis.
The euro pared its first monthly loss since November after Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said European leaders will decide on a new aid package by the end of next month and have ruled out a “total restructuring” of the nation’s debt. The yen fell versus all 16 of its major counterparts as stocks surged and after Moody’s Investors Service placed Japan’s credit ratings on review for possible downgrade. New Zealand’s dollar rose to a record after a report showed business confidence increased.
“The news that European leaders are not going to demand restructuring is making a difference as it simply means they will throw money at the problem to stay off the day of reckoning,” said Geoffrey Yu, a currency strategist at UBS AG in London. “We can see the euro move higher to $1.45.”
The euro stayed higher after a report showed German retail sales rose in April as unemployment fell below 3 million for the first time in almost 19 years, fueling bets that the European Central Bank will signal next week that it may raise interest rates for a second time this year.


EUR/USD gained above $1.4400.


GBP/USD followed the euro and reachd $1.6545, before eased back to $1.6500.


USD/JPY got support at Y80.70, before on the back of rising stocks gained to 81.70.

Today's main event is Bank of Canada's rate decision at 13:00 GMT before Chicago PMI is due to come at 14:00  GMT.

08:07
Tech on USD/JPY
Resistance 3: Y82.20/30 (МА (200/100) for D) 
Resistance 2: Y81.90 (trendline resistance since April 7) 
Resistance 1: Y81.75 (session high) 
Current price: Y81.58
Support 1:Y80.70 (session low, May 16 low)  
Support 2:Y80.20 (May 10 low)  
Support 3:Y79.55 (May 5 low)  

Comments: the pair gained on risk on trade. The nearest resistance - Y81.75. Above growth is possible to Y81.90. The nearest support - Y80.70. Below losses are possible to Y80.20. 

08:04
Tech on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.8680            (50.0% FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8465)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8630            (38.2% FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8465)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8540 (session top)
Current price: Chf0.8492
Support 1: Chf0.8465 (session base)
Support 2: Chf0.8400 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8300 (psychological mark)

Comments: the pair remains under pressure and trades near its historical low. The nearest support - Chf0.8465. Below loss may widen to Chf0.8400. The nearest resistance Chf0.8540. ahead of Chf0.8650.

07:57
German jobless rate 7.0%, as 8,000 persons left the ranks ofthe unemployed
07:52
Tech on GBP/USD
Resistance 3: $ 1.6750 (high of April)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6575 (May 4 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6510/20 (session high, May 11 high)
Current price: $1.6500
Support 1 : $1.6470 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6400 (May 27 intraday low)
Support 2 : $1.6340 (38.2 % FIBO $1.6060-$ 1.6510)

Comments: the pair remains around session high. The nearest resistance - $1.6510/20. Above growth is possible to $1.6575. The nearest support $1.6470. Below decrease is possible to $1.6400.

07:49
Tech on EUR/USD
Resistance 3: $ 1.4450 (50.0 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.3960)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4425 (May 11 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4405 (session high)
Current price: $1.4390
Support 1 : $1.4255 (May 30 base) 
Support 2 : $1.4200/180 (May 26 top/May 27 low)
Support 3 : $1.4120 (trendline support since May 23)

Comments: the pair is on the rise. The nearest resistance $1.4405. ahead of $1.4425. The nearest support $1.4255. Below losses are possible to $1.4200.

07:32
Shanghai Composite Index closes Tuesday +1.37% at 2,743.47.
06:42
Orders desk:

EUR/USD
Offers: $1.4410, $1.4420/25, $1.4440/55
Bids: $1.4365/50

USD/JPY
Offers: Y81.45/50, Y82.00/10
Bids: Y81.10/00

06:26
Precious metals:

Gold traded quietly Monday as the US and UK markets were closed because of holidays. Today gold opened at $1538.75. The metal picked up to $1540.80 before easing back to $1534.70. Support is seen at $1522.75 with resistance at $1551.30.
Silver traded a $37.80-38.41 range yesterday and has today traded a $38.04-36 range in Asia this morning. Support now seen towards 37.45 with resistance at $38.87.

06:07
COMMODITIES: ICE Brent is higher by 0.37% at 115.10 in Asian trade, while Gold is broadly unchanged in overnight trade at 1,537.40.
06:01
GERMANY: Retail sales +0.6% m/m and +3.6% y/y
05:46
Stocks: Monday's review

Majors close:
Nikkei 225 -16.97 -0.18% 9,504.97
CAC 40     -12.61     -0.32%     3,938.37
DAX -5.07 -0.07% 7,158.40

Japanese stocks swung between gains and losses amid speculation shares are oversold, and as comments by the Group of Eight nations tempered concern that a U.S. economic recovery is slowing.
Sony Corp. fell 2.1% after a report showed U.S. home-buying plunged more than forecast and the yen advanced against the dollar.
Honda Motor Co., Japan’s No. 2 automaker, dropped 1.3% after hackers accessed personal data of customers in Canada.
Sumitomo Realty & Development Co. rallied 1.2% after being raised to “overweight” from “equal- weight” at Barclays Capital.

European stocks were little changed after four straight weeks of losses for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as chemical makers and renewable-energy companies gained while banks declined.
BASF SE (BAS), the world’s biggest maker of chemicals, rose 1.2%.
Renewable Energy Corp. ASA and Vestas Wind Systems A/S climbed more than 3% as Germany set 2022 as the final date to close its nuclear reactors.
Alpha Bank SA tumbled 9.1% as the International Monetary Fund reviewed Greece’s efforts toward meeting fiscal targets.
Speculation that Greece will restructure its debt and concern the outlook for other economies in the region is worsening has weighed on stocks since February.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he’ll press ahead with new austerity measures after failing to win backing from the main opposition parties. An international panel of inspectors has concluded that the debt-laden country has missed all the fiscal targets agreed in its rescue plan, Der Spiegel reported May 29.
Markets in the U.K. were closed to observe the Spring Bank Holiday.

U.S. markets were Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

05:28
Forex: Monday's review

The euro weakened for the first time in three days Monday against the dollar on concern euro-area leaders will struggle to resolve the debt crisis, damping demand for the region’s assets.
The shared currency weakened after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he’ll press ahead with additional austerity measures even as he failed to win backing from opposition parties.
Greece’s Antonis Samaras, leader of the biggest opposition party, New Democracy, rejected Papandreou’s plan at a meeting with him and other opposition leaders in Athens, saying his party wouldn’t be blackmailed.
European Union officials have called for consensus on the package, which includes an extra 6 billion euros ($8.6 billion) of budget cuts and a plan to speed 50 billion euros of state-asset sales.
New Zealand has recorded its biggest monthly trade surplus on the back of higher prices for dairy products, the country’s top export earner, in a positive sign for a nation hit hard by two recent earthquakes and years of weak economic growth.
The NZ$1.11bn ($908m) trade surplus for April was nearly double economists’ forecasts and helped push the New Zealand dollar to its highest level against its US counterpart since the currency was floated in 1985.
Fonterra, the dairy farmer’s co-operative that accounts for about a fifth of the nation’s exports, recently said that March was its best month for export volumes thanks to rising demand from China, south-east Asia and the Middle East.
Strengthening trade links with China have also helped drive the record trade surplus. Exports to China have risen by nearly 40% in the 12 months ended in March.
New Zealand’s gross domestic product rose 0.2% in the final quarter of 2010 compared with the three months ended September.
However, the devastation caused by February’s earthquake in Christchurch, the second seismic event within six months, is expected to see the economy shrink by about 0.2% in the three months ended in March.
Nevertheless, the economy is expected to strengthen as 2011 continues with growth of about 1.3% for the year, rising to 3.7% in 2012.

EUR/USD fell from Asian high on $1.4305 to the lows near $1.4255 before recovered a bit to current $1.4284. Resistance between $1.4285/90 capped the bulls' attemps to break above.


GBP/USD was under pressure, thus above support at $1.6460/50.


USD/JPY held within the Y80.75/90 before tested Y81.00.

Today's main event is Bank of Canada's rate decision at 13:00 GMT before Chicago PMI is due to come at 14:00  GMT.

05:10
Schedule for today, Tuesday, May 31'2011:

05:00     Japan     Housing starts (April) Y/Y         -3.9%    -2.4%
05:00     Japan     Construction orders (April) Y/Y         -    11.0%
06:00     Germany     Retail sales (April) real adjusted         1.8%    -2.1%
06:00     Germany     Retail sales (April) real unadjusted Y/Y         1.5%    -3.5%
06:45     France     PPI (April)         0.8%    0.9%
06:45     France     PPI (April) Y/Y         6.4%    6.6%
06:45     France     Consumer spending (April)         0.0%    -0.7%
06:45     France     Consumer spending (April) Y/Y          4.4%    2.6%
07:55     Germany     Unemployment (May) seasonally adjusted         -30K    -37K
07:55     Germany     Unemployment (May) seasonally adjusted, mln         -    2.970
07:55     Germany     Unemployment rate (May) seasonally adjusted         7.0%    7.1%
07:55     Germany     Unemployment (May) seasonally unadjusted, mln         -    3.078
07:55     Germany     Unemployment rate (May) seasonally unadjusted         -    7.3%
09:00     Italy     CPI (May) preliminary         0.2%    0.5%
09:00     Italy     CPI (May) preliminary Y/Y         2.7%    2.6%
09:00     Italy     HICP (May) preliminary Y/Y         3.0%    2.9%
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI (May) Y/Y preliminary         2.8%    2.8%
09:00     EU(17)     Unemployment (April)         9.9%    9.9%
10:00     Italy     PPI (April)         0.9%    0.7%
10:00     Italy     PPI (April) Y/Y         5.5%    5.7%
12:55     USA     Redbook (28.05)              
13:00     Canada     BOC meeting announcement         1.00%    1.00%
13:45     USA     Chicago PMI (May)         63.0    67.6
14:00     USA     Consumer confidence (May)         66.4    65.4

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