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Fitch: there is no immediate impact on major Japanese banks' ratings from the recent change of Japan's Outlook to Negative from Stable.
Orders desk:

Offers: $1.4300, $1.4340/45
Bids: $1.4245/40, $1.4200, $1.4185/80, $1.4150/45, $1.4125/20

Offers: Y81.30, Y81.45/50, Y81.65/70, Y81.90/82.10
Bids: Y80.70, Y80.50, Y80.30/20, Y80.00

Offers: $1.6500/05, $1.6520, $1.6540/50, $1.6570/80
Bids: $1.6430, $1.6405/00

Offers: Y116.00, Y116.40/55, Y117.20/30
Bids: Y115.05/114.95, Y114.50, Y114.00/113.85

JAPAN, Fitch: There is no immediate impact on major Japanese banks' ratings from the recent change of Japan's Outlook to Negative from Stable.
EU session review: Euro weakens on concern Europe will struggle debts

The euro weakened for the first time in three days against the dollar on concern euro-area leaders will struggle to resolve the debt crisis, damping demand for the region’s assets.
The shared currency weakened after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he’ll press ahead with additional austerity measures even as he failed to win backing from opposition parties.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty about the possibility of a Greek restructuring and what is going to be done to help it refinance itself,” said You-na Park, a currency strategist at Commerzbank AG. “That’s driving the euro weaker.”
Greece’s Antonis Samaras, leader of the biggest opposition party, New Democracy, rejected Papandreou’s plan at a meeting with him and other opposition leaders in Athens, saying his party wouldn’t be blackmailed.
European Union officials have called for consensus on the package, which includes an extra 6 billion euros ($8.6 billion) of budget cuts and a plan to speed 50 billion euros of state-asset sales.
“There are definitely still peripheral European problems,” said Osao Iizuka at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co.. “The uncertainty is likely to weigh on the euro.”
The euro has fallen 2.1% in the past month.
The Swiss franc has strengthened 3.8% and the yen has added 2.4%.
Demand for New Zealand’s dollar was bolstered after the nation’s statistics bureau said today that exports outpaced imports by NZ$1.11 billion ($910 million) from a revised NZ$578 million surplus in March. The median estimate was for a NZ$600 million surplus.

EUR/USD back to $1.4284 after earlier it weakened to $1.4255. Resistance remains between $1.4285/90.

GBP/USD continues to holds under pressure, thus above support at $1.6460/50. Stops noted through $1.6445/40 with further support noted into $1.6430.

USD/JPY still holds within the Y80.75/90.

U.S. markets are closed today for the Memorial Day holiday.
Markets in the U.K. are also closed to observe the Spring Bank Holiday.
Among the figures from Canada investors may digest GDP and Trdae Balance data at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/JPY sets stable

EUR/JPY holds around Y115.45 with demand is near Y115.05/90. Stops below Y114.90 with mjre bids on Y114.50. Resistance is near Y116.00. Offers are there too.

EU stocks:

Most European stocks gained, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rebounding from four straight weeks of losses, as chemical makers and renewable-energy companies advanced.
BASF AG advanced 1.8%. Renewable Energy Corp. ASA and Vestas Wind Systems A/S gained more than 2.5% as Germany set 2022 as the final date to close its nuclear reactors.

IRELAND: The Central Bank of Ireland's profit in 2010 slipped to E840.9 million from E933.8 million in 2009.
USD/USD within a range

USD/USD holds within a tight range around Y80.80. Rate trades above Friday's low at Y80.70 (support now). Resistance is above Y81.00 (Asia high Y81.01).

EU focus: Euro dips, Kiwi hits 26-yr high

The euro dipped on Monday and investors covering short positions in the dollar following a slide in the U.S. currency late last week.
But the euro still holds higher after Friday's gain, when it climbed more than 1% against the greenback.
The euro was supported after Greek central bank chief George Provopoulos was quoted as saying on Friday that the country will repay its debts in full without restructuring if it sticks to a fiscal austerity plan.
"The speed of the dollar's decline on Friday was quite extraordinary, so investors are now buying the currency back," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
"With both the UK and the U.S. markets closed on Monday, we're not expecting any rapid moves, but the market will be paying close attention to any possible remarks regarding the state of European finances and may act quite quickly on such remarks," Kamei added.

In a sign of the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar, the New Zealand dollar hit a 26-year high on Monday.
kiwi was supported by New Zealand's data that showed the country has recorded its biggest monthly trade surplus on the back of higher prices for dairy products. The trade suplus came at NZ$1.11bn ($908m) in April and was nearly double economists’ forecasts.
Among the figures from Canada investors may digest GDP and Trdae Balance data at 12:30 GMT.

GERMANY: Must wait for EU, ECB, IMF report on Greece towards end of week
AUD/USD back under the figure

AUD/USD fell in EU to the lows around $1.0675 before recovered to $1.0703. Rate failed to hold above and retreated to $1.0690. Resistance seen at $1.0713, then $1.0722 (61.8%/76.4% $1.0737/1.0675) ahead of $1.0737. Support $1.0675/70 ahead of $1.0650/45.

GBP/USD probes $1.6280

GBP/USD recovers, but resistance at $1.6280 still capps the bull's push. Tech resistance comes at $1.6487 (50% Fibo of $1.6515/1.6458 move). Above here and rate can extend recovery to $1.6500/05 ($1.6502 76.4% Fibo).

EUR/GBP following euro's rise

EUR/GBP following euro's rise, while cable retains a heavy tone, sitting off the morning's lows at $1.6458. Resistance in the cross seen into earlier highs at stg0.8685, a break to open a move on toward stg0.8692 and stg0.8700.

Asian session: Strong data lift Kiwi to record high

New Zealand has recorded its biggest monthly trade surplus on the back of higher prices for dairy products, the country’s top export earner, in a positive sign for a nation hit hard by two recent earthquakes and years of weak economic growth.
The NZ$1.11bn ($908m) trade surplus for April was nearly double economists’ forecasts and helped push the New Zealand dollar to its highest level against its US counterpart since the currency was floated in 1985.
Fonterra, the dairy farmer’s co-operative that accounts for about a fifth of the nation’s exports, recently said that March was its best month for export volumes thanks to rising demand from China, south-east Asia and the Middle East.
Strengthening trade links with China have also helped drive the record trade surplus. Exports to China have risen by nearly 40% in the 12 months ended in March.
New Zealand’s gross domestic product rose 0.2% in the final quarter of 2010 compared with the three months ended September.
However, the devastation caused by February’s earthquake in Christchurch, the second seismic event within six months, is expected to see the economy shrink by about 0.2% in the three months ended in March.
Nevertheless, the economy is expected to strengthen as 2011 continues with growth of about 1.3% for the year, rising to 3.7% in 2012.

EUR/USD fell from Asian high on $1.4305 to the lows near $1.4255 before recovered a bit to current $1.4284. Resistance comes between $1.4285/90.

GBP/USD holds tight, challenging the placed between $1.6460/50 so far able to contain and support rate. Stops noted through $1.6445/40 with further support noted into $1.6430.

USD/JPY holds within the Y80.75/90.

There is no major data for today.
US markets are closed
for Memory Day holiday.
Among the figures from Canada investors may digest GDP and Trdae Balance data at 12:30 GMT.

GBP/USD holds tighs

GBP/USD holds tighs, printing session lows around $1.6458. Meanwhile, demand placed between $1.6460/50 so far able to contain and support rate. Stops noted through $1.6445/40 with further support noted into $1.6430.

EUR/USD heads for $1.4285/90

EUR/USD trades around $1.4280 and there is a risk for challenging the resistance between $1.4285/90 ($1.4287 38.2% Fibo of $1.4335/1.4257 move). A ckean break to open a move toward $1.4295/05.

China's stocks: The Shanghai Composite Index ended Monday down 0.13% at 2706.36.
AUD/USD снижаетсяAUD/USD weakens

AUD/USD holds around $1.0681 vs $1.0725 open following mainly the weakness in the euro. No support from local data with data on companies' profits. The focus now is at March quarter GDP (due Wednesday).

Board of orders:

Offers: $1.4335/45, $1.4350
Bids: $1.4260, $1.4245/40, $1.4220/10

Offers: $1.6515/20, $1.6540/50
Bids: $1.6460/50, $1.6430

Offers: Y81.00, Y81.30, $1.8140/45
Bids: Y80.70/60, Y80.50, Y80.30/20, Y80.00

Offers: Y115.75/00
Bids: Y115.05/114.95, Y114.50

Japan's stocks: The Nikkei 225 index ended Monday down 0.18% at 9504.97.
Forex: Weekly review

The euro had a volatile week but still managed to fix gains against the dollar as risk appetite began to pick up towards the end of the week and drove the US currency lower.
Thursday’s disappointing data on first-quarter US growth and evidence of weaker consumer spending underlined the notion that the world’s biggest economy was still a long way from tightening its monetary policy.
After remarks from Jean-Claude Juncker that the International Monetary Fund would delay further aid to Greece if it were not convinced by budget reforms, the noise surrounding Europe’s periphery debt crisis quietened down during the G8 meeting on Friday.
Furthermore, news that Greek prime minister George Papandreou was to meet opposition leaders in a bid to achieve consensus on fiscal measures also helped calm the eurozone-related market jitters.
Meanwhile, the economic fundamentals in the US were in focus too and market players found them lacking. Investors were disappointed that the second reading of US growth data had not shown upward revisions to the anaemic 1.8% annual gross domestic product of the flash estimate.
The euro climbed 0.6% over the week versus the dollar, managing to rise off a one-month low. It remained 0.3% lower against the yen, and fell 0.8% versus the pound. The euro, having hit a record low against the Swiss franc, remained down by 1.8% over the week.
Sterling’s strong performance against the dollar came against the backdrop of Wednesday’s second reading of UK GDP data that confirmed the flash estimate of 0.5% quarter on quarter growth.
The pound climbed 1.4% over the week against the dollar, and gained 0.5% against the yen.
The yen strengthened versus the dollar last week, helped by Friday’s data that showed core consumer prices turned positive for the first time since February 2009. The yen gained 0.8% during the week.

Stocks: Weekly review

Japanese stocks fell, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a third straight weekly decline, as reports showed the U.S. economy grew at a slower than estimated rate, reducing the earnings outlook for Japanese exporters.
For the week, the Nikkei has lost 0.9 percent, completing its longest streak of weekly losses since October, while the Topix is down 0.4 percent.
Carmakers were the heaviest drag on the Topix among its 33 industry groups after carmakers said production fell last month. Toyota said domestic production plunged 78 percent, the largest decline since 1976. Japan output at Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. fell 81 percent and 49 percent respectively. Toyota shares lost 0.6 percent to 3,335 yen. Honda dropped 0.8 percent to 3,070 yen. Nissan sank 0.5 percent to 796 yen.
Sony slumped 3.2 percent to 2,167 yen, the biggest decline on the Nikkei. The company said its full-year net loss widened to 259.6 billion yen ($3.19 billion) from 40.8 billion yen in the year ended March 31. The company forecast profit of 80 billion yen this fiscal year, lower than the 115.9 billion yen average estimate

European stocks fell for a fourth straight week as mounting sovereign-debt concern in Greece and Italy and the worst election defeat for Spain’s ruling Socialist Party in 30 years weighed on investor sentiment.
Alpha Bank SA and Italy’s Banca Popolare di Milano Scrl led a retreat in Greek and Italian lenders. Burberry Group Plc (BRBY) dropped 4.5 percent after saying operating margin will probably fall in the first half of its fiscal year. Cable & Wireless Communications Plc plunged 7 percent. Mining companies limited declines as copper climbed and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it’s turning “more bullish” on commodities.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2 percent to 279.05 this week as national benchmarks in every west European country except Spain and Norway retreated. The benchmark gauge has fallen 1.7 percent so far this month as commodity producers tumbled with metal and oil prices and Greek 10-year bond yields soared to a record as rating firms downgraded the nation’s credit rating.

U.S. stocks rose, erasing a weekly drop for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as comments from the Group of Eight about the strength of the global economy offset a drop in home sales that was 12 times faster than projected.
A gauge of raw-material producers led the gains in the S&P 500 within 10 industries, rising 1.4 percent. Copper rose to a three-week high in New York as increased premiums signaled stronger demand in China and Standard Chartered Plc predicted price gains, joining banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Freeport, the largest publicly traded copper producer, advanced 2.4 percent to $51.59.
Banks had the biggest gain in the S&P 500 within 24 industries

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y81.60 (МА (200) for Н1) 
Resistance 2: Y81.30/40 (around of May 27 high) 
Resistance 1: Y81.00 (session high) 
Current price: Y80.79
Support 1:Y80.70 (session low, May 16 low)  
Support 2:Y80.20 (May 10 low)  
Support 3:Y79.55 (May 5 low)  

Comments: the pair bargains in a narrow range. The nearest support - Y80.70. Below losses are possible to Y80.20. The nearest resistance - Y81.00. Above growth is possible to Y81.30/40. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.8700 (50.0 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8490)
Resistance 2: Chf0.8650 (38.2 % FIBO Chf0.8890-Chf0.8490)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8550 (the top border of the down channel)
Current price: Chf0.8520
Support 1: Chf0.8490 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.8400 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.8300 (psychological mark)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of a historical low. The nearest support - Chf0,8490. Below loss may extend to Chf0.8400. The nearest resistance Chf0.8550. Above is located Chf0.8650.

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6750 (high of April)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6575 (May 4 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6510/20 (session high, May 11 high)
Current price: $1.6479
Support 1 : $1.6470 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.6400 (May 27 intraday low)
Support 2 : $1.6340 (38.2 % FIBO $1.6060-$ 1.6510)

Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the high reached on Friday. The nearest resistance - $1.6510/20. Above growth is possible to $1.6575. The nearest support $1.6470. Below  decrease is possible to $1.6400. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4450 (50.0 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.3960)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4340 (May 20 high, 38.2 % FIBO $1.4940-$ 1.3960)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4310 (session high)
Current price: $1.4280
Support 1 : $1.4175 (МА (200) for Н1) 
Support 2 : $1.4120 (support line from May 23)
Support 3 : $1.4070 (May 26 low)
Comments: the pair slightly decreased. The nearest support $1,4175. Below losses are possible to $1.4120. The nearest resistance $1.4310. Above growth is possible to $1,4340. 

Schedule for today, Monday, May 30 2011:

USA Memorial Day  
23:30 Japan Unemployment (April) 4.7% 4.6%
23:30 Japan Household spending (April) real Y/Y -3.2% -8.5%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (April) preliminary 1.9% -15.5%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (April) preliminary Y/Y -12.6% -13.1%12:30
12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% -0.2%
12:30 Canada Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ) (Q1) 4.0% 3.3%
12:30 Canada Current Account (Q1) -2.90B -11.05B

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