CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 29-09-2014

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 94.30 -0.29%

Gold 1,215.60 -0.26%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 16,310.64 +80.78 +0.50%

Hang Seng 23,229.21 -449.20 -1.90%

Shanghai Composite 2,357.71 +9.99 +0.43%

FTSE 100 6,646.6 -2.79 -0.04%

CAC 40 4,358.07 -36.68 -0.83%

Xetra DAX 9,422.91 -67.64 -0.71%

S&P 500 1,977.8 -5.05 -0.25%

NASDAQ Composite 4,505.85 -6.34 -0.14%

Dow Jones 17,071.22 -41.93 -0.25%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2688 +0,05%

GBP/USD $1,6241 -0,02%

USD/CHF Chf0,9511 -0,01%

USD/JPY Y109,44 +0,16%

EUR/JPY Y138,86 +0,18%

GBP/JPY Y177,73 +0,08%

AUD/USD $0,8717 -0,54%

NZD/USD $0,7767 -1,26%

USD/CAD C$1,1159 +0,12%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 24.4

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.5%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y August +5.1%

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY August +2.6% +1.1%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 50.5 50.5

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August -14.1% -13.9%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index September +0.8%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y September +11.0%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -1.4% +0.6%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August +0.7% -0.3%

06:45 France Consumer spending July +0.9% -0.3%

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y July +1.8%

06:45 France Consumer spending August

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y August

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator September 99.5 99.1

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change September 2 -2

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. September 6.7% 6.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter II -18.5 -16.9

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter II +0.8% +0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter II +3.0% +3.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q Quarter II +5.0% +2.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y Quarter II +10.6% +11.5%

09:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate August 11.5% 11.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) September +0.3% +0.3%

12:30 Canada Industrial Product Prices, m/m August -0.3% -0.2%

12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) July +0.3% +0.2%

12:30 Canada Raw Material Price Index August -1.4% -1.7%

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y July +8.1% +7.5%

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index September 64.3 61.6

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence September 92.4 92.2

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories September -6.5

23:30 Australia AIG Manufacturing Index September 47.3

23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Manufacturing Index Quarter III 12 11

23:50 Japan BoJ Tankan. Non-Manufacturing Index Quarter III 19 17

West Texas Intermediate crude headed for its biggest loss in a week as U.S. economic data bolstered the outlook for higher interest rates. Brent declined in London amid concern Chinese demand is slowing.

Futures dropped as much as 0.9 percent in New York and 0.8 percent in London. Both grades were heading for their biggest quarterly loss in more than two years. The dollar traded near its highest closing level against the euro in more than two years, curbing the appeal of commodities, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates. Gauges of Chinese manufacturing are due tomorrow and on Oct. 1, and U.S. payrolls data will be released on Oct. 3.

"It will be a very heavy week in macro data," Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. "China is not a strong story. For financial investors, the Fed moving out of quantitative easing does not call for investment in commodities," he said by e-mail.

WTI for November delivery slid as much as 80 cents to $92.74 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $93.22 at 12:59 p.m. London time. The contract climbed $1.01 to $93.54 on Sept. 26, the highest close since Sept. 17. The volume of all futures traded was about 15 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices have lost 12 percent in the past three months, the biggest quarterly drop since June 2012.

Brent for November settlement decreased as much as 73 cents to $96.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $3.52 to WTI on ICE, near the narrowest in more than a year. Brent has lost 14 percent this quarter.

Gold prices fluctuate amid rising dollar and demonstrations in Hong Kong.

The dollar against a basket of six major currencies hit four-year high and is close to a six-year peak against the yen due to the acceleration of economic growth in the United States in the second quarter.

Consumer spending in the United States rose slightly in the last month, which may be a sign of a more substantial economic growth in the 3rd quarter. Ministry of Commerce announced that in August of personal expenses of Americans increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.5%. Figure for the previous month was revised upwards - to 0.0% from -0.1%. Amount of personal income, meanwhile, rose 0.3% after increasing 0.2% in July. Changing these two indicators is fully in line with the expectations of experts. In August, spend more on goods rose by 0.4% compared to July, including due to the 1.8 percent jump in spending on durable goods. Spending on services rose by 0.5% compared with July.

Asian stock markets ended the trading session on Monday in different directions, but the Hong Kong Stock Exchange index fell nearly 2 percent due to collisions between demonstrators and police. Dealers are concerned that the turmoil will scare off tourists on the eve of the holiday week in China, which will begin on Wednesday, which will affect the sale of gold jewelry. China - the world's largest consumer of gold.

"It will certainly affect the retail sales of gold. Usually in Hong Kong for the holidays comes a lot of Chinese tourists who buy jewelry, but this time they can deter protests," - said General Manager dealership office Heraeus Metals in Hong Kong Dick Poon.

The world's largest reserves of the gold-exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust on Friday fell by 1.2 tonnes to 772.25 tonnes - the lowest level since December 2008.

The cost of the October gold futures on the COMEX today rose to 1222.20 dollars per ounce.

EUR/USD: $1.2750(E417mn), $1.2800(E202mn), $1.2950(E1.3bn)

USD/JPY: Y108.30($250mn), Y109.00($380mn), Y109.25-30($200mn), Y110.00($854mn)

GBP/USD: $1.6250(stg141mn), $1.6300(stg100mn), $1.6325(stg156mn), $1.6450(stg241mn)

AUD/USD: $0.9000(A$1.0bn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1075($325mn), C$1.1105($375mn), C$1.1125($230mn), C$1.1200($595mn)

U.S. stock-index futures fell as protests escalated in Hong Kong and investors weighed economic data to gauge the timing of higher interest rates.

Global markets:

Nikkei 16,310.64 +80.78 +0.50%

Hang Seng 23,229.21 -449.20 -1.90%

Shanghai Composite 2,357.71 +9.99 +0.43%

FTSE 6,617.24 -32.15 -0.48%

CAC 4,353.13 -41.62 -0.95%

DAX 9,400.46 -90.09 -0.95%

Crude oil $93.34 (-0.22%)

Gold $1219.60 (+0.35%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

FedEx (FDX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen, target raised to $210 from $155

Facebook (FB) target raised to $93 from $80 at Needham

Yahoo! (YHOO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham, target $48

Downgrades:

Other:

Nike (NKE) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse, target raised to $100 from $80

Deere (DE) target lowered to $95 from $98 at Credit Suisse

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 66 Revised From 67 66 64

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 3.4 3.1 3.2

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) September 0.0% -0.1% 0.0%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) August 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

The U.S. dollar traded mixed to lower against the most major currencies ahead of the U.S. personal income and spending. Personal income in the U.S. is expected to rise 0.3% in August, after a 0.2% increase in July.

Personal spending in the U.S. is expected to climb 0.5% in August, after a 0.1% decline in July.

Pending home sales in the U.S. are expected to decline 0.4% in August, after a 3.3% gain in July.

The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from the Eurozone.

The British pound traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the economic data from the U.K. The number of mortgage approvals declined to 64,212 in August down from 66,100 in July. July's figure was revised down from 67,085. Analysts had expected a fall to 66,000.

Net Lending to Individuals fell to £3.2 billions in August from £3.4 billions, beating expectations for a decline to £3.1 billions.

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m August +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending August -0.1% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m August +0.1% 0.0%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y August +1.5% +1.4%

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) August +3.3% -0.4%

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m August +0.1%

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence September 1 0

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August -5.9% -3.5%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 3.8% 3.8%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) August +0.4% +0.2%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) August -0.7%

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y August +0.6% Revised From +0.5% +0.4%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2820/30, $1.2800, $1.2780/85, $1.2760

Bids $1.2660/50, $1.2600

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6425/30, $1.6400/10, $1.6325/30

Bids $1.6210/00, $1.6180, $1.6160

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8900, $0.8850, $0.8795/00

Bids $0.8680, $0.8650, $0.8600

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.00, Y139.70, Y139.50

Bids Y138.35, Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y111.00, Y110.00

Bids Y109.00, Y108.70, Y108.45

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7890, stg0.7850, stg0.7829-31

Bids stg0.7783, stg0.7755/45, stg0.7700

Stock indices traded lower as bank shares declined. Pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong weighed on the banking sector.

Market participants are awaiting the release of personal income and spending data from the U.S.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment for the Eurozone fell to 99.9 in September from 100.6 in August.

Current figures:

Name Price Change Change %

FTSE 6,636.17 -13.22 -0.20%

DAX 9,468.44 -22.11 -0.23%

CAC 40 4,376.07 -18.68 -0.43%

EUR/USD: $1.2750(E417mn), $1.2800(E202mn), $1.2950(E1.3bn)

USD/JPY: Y108.30($250mn), Y109.00($380mn), Y109.25-30($200mn), Y110.00($854mn)

GBP/USD: $1.6250(stg141mn), $1.6300(stg100mn), $1.6325(stg156mn), $1.6450(stg241mn)

AUD/USD: $0.9000(A$1.0bn)

USD/CAD: C$1.1075($325mn), C$1.1105($375mn), C$1.1125($230mn), C$1.1200($595mn)

Most Asian stock indices closed higher on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The U.S. final gross domestic product (GDP). The U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, in line with expectations, after a 2.1% decline in the first quarter. A previous reading was a 4.2% gain.

The unrest in Hong Kong weighed on markets in Hong Kong. That was the worst unrest since China took back control.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225 16,310.64 +80.78 +0.50%

Hang Seng 23,229.21 -449.20 -1.90%

Shanghai Composite 2,357.71 +9.99 +0.43%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The greenback remained supported by Friday's solid U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). The U.S. GDP rose at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, in line with expectations, after a 2.1% decline in the first quarter. A previous reading was a 4.2% gain.

Market participants speculate that the Fed will start to hike its interest rates sooner than expected.

The New Zealand dollar dropped to 14-month low against the U.S. dollar as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand disclosed that it sold the kiwi to lower an exchange rate. That was the biggest sell-off in seven years.

No major economic reports were released in New Zealand.

The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major economic reports from Australia.

The Japanese yen traded lower against the U.S. dollar in the absence of any major reports from Japan.

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals August 67 66

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln August 3.4 3.1

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) September 0.0% -0.1%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) August 0.8% 0.8%

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m August +0.2% +0.3%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending August -0.1% +0.5%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m August +0.1% 0.0%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y August +1.5% +1.4%

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) August +3.3% -0.4%

21:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m August +0.1%

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence September 1 0

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y August -5.9% -3.5%

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate August 3.8% 3.8%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) August +0.4% +0.2%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) August -0.7%

23:50 Japan Retail sales, y/y August +0.6% Revised From +0.5% +0.4%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2822 (2504)

$1.2786 (657)

$1.2735 (163)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2668

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2653 (2233)

$1.2632 (3862)

$1.2604 (2495)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 3 is 60545 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (4829);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 3 is 61034 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (6076);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.00 versus 1.03 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 26

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.6500 (2346)

$1.6401 (1629)

$1.6304 (1263)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6217

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6196 (2420)

$1.6098 (3480)

$1.5999 (1984)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 3 is 31197 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (3649);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 3 is 41970 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6300 (4565);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.35 versus 1.31 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 26

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.