CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 29-07-2014

The dollar rose modestly against the euro, reaching maximum values ​​at the same time from 20 November 2013. Market participants expect more details on sanctions against Russia. EU Council at the level of Permanent Representatives of 28 countries agreed community today at a meeting in Brussels on economic sanctions against Russia. Reported by the Reuters news agency quoted a diplomatic source. In this companion Reuters added that economic sanctions against Russia in the EU will be reviewed after three months. Bloomberg agency agreement also confirms new sanctions against Russia. According to the agency, the list includes new sanctions restricting access Russian state banks to capital markets, the ban on exports to the Russian equipment for oil embargo on future arms sales to Russia, as well as restrictions on the supply of dual-use equipment.

Little support was U.S. data that showed in July index of consumer confidence in the U.S. jumped to 90.9 points, which was the maximum value of the index since October 2007. This was reported by a research organization Conference Board, which calculates this indicator. However, the indicator value for June was revised from 85.2 points to 86.4 points. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 85.5 points from the previously specified level. Indicator of the attitude of U.S. consumers to the current financial situation in July rose to 88.3 points compared with 86.3 in the previous month. The index of consumer expectations for the next six months jumped to 92.7 points from 86.4 points.

The British pound weakened against the dollar after an early growth data on mortgage loans. Number of mortgage approvals in the UK rose more than expected in June to its highest level since February of last year, data showed on Tuesday the Bank of England. Approved applications for house purchase increased to 67 196, 4-month high of 62,007 in May. Predicted moderate growth to 63000. Loans to individuals increased by 2.5 billion pounds. In total, loans secured by housing increased by 2.1 billion pounds in June, compared with a rise of 2.3 billion pounds in May. On an annual basis, secured loans rose 1.5 percent.

Consumer loans grew by only 0.4 billion pounds, after rising by 0.7 billion pounds. Annual growth remained unchanged at 5.3 percent. M4 money supply rose 0.1 percent in June from May. On an annual basis M4 decreased by 0.6 percent compared with 0.8 percent drop in May.

The yen depreciated markedly against the dollar, reaching a three-week low at the same time. Demand for the dollar is still maintained before the release of preliminary data on U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and the statement of the Federal Reserve's rate. Investors also expect the employment report for July on Friday. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen noted that U.S. interest rates may rise sooner if the recovery in the labor market will continue.

European stocks rose moderately today, due to the announcement of a new round of sanctions against Russia and the expectations of the outcome of the Fed meeting.

Today, EU governments agreed to impose economic sanctions against Russia, aimed at its oil industry, defense industry, dual-use technology and thin, diplomats said. Sanctions will be imposed for 3 months, after which the EU will assess the situation again, said one of the diplomats. The fate of discussions on the proposed EC sanctions against Russian state banks is still unclear. These measures were taken in response to the Russian involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine and downed earlier in the month of passenger aircraft.

Investors were also cautious in anticipation of the announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting. The central bank will probably priderzhetsya their schedules and reduce program of monthly purchases of bonds by $ 10 billion per month - up to $ 25 billion Meanwhile, preliminary data on U.S. economic growth in the second quarter, scheduled for Wednesday, and the employment report for July, which is scheduled Friday is expected to show that the economic recovery is stored.

Little influenced by the U.S. data, which showed that in July the index of consumer confidence in the U.S. jumped to 90.9 points, which was the maximum value of the index since October 2007. This was reported by a research organization Conference Board, which calculates this indicator. However, the indicator value for June was revised from 85.2 points to 86.4 points. Analysts had expected the index to increase to 85.5 points from the previously specified level. Indicator of the attitude of U.S. consumers to the current financial situation in July rose to 88.3 points compared with 86.3 in the previous month. The index of consumer expectations for the next six months jumped to 92.7 points from 86.4 points.

National benchmark indexes rose in 12 of the 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 6,807.75 +19.68 +0.29% CAC 40 4,365.58 +20.81 +0.48% DAX 9,653.63 +55.46 +0.58%

The value of shares BP Plc fell during trading 2.5% even though the fact that the British oil company increased its net profit in the 2nd quarter of 2014 by 33% - to $ 3.182 billion BP profit excluding one-off factors and changes in inventories was $ 3.6 billion, exceeding the median forecast of experts at $ 3.4 billion

Paper Spanish construction company Ferrovial SA rose 1.2%. Ferrovial recorded in the 1st half net profit of 168.4 billion euros, which was better than analysts had expected 145 million euros. In addition, the company announced plans to buy back its own shares to 350 million euros.

Shares of British Next Plc, control network of clothing stores rose 2.5%. The pace of revenue growth in the 1st half of fiscal amounted to 11%, exceeding the expectations of experts (9.5%), which allowed the company to improve its revenue and profit forecasts for the current year.

Michelin shares jumped 1.8%, rebounding after the recession that followed the tire manufacturer's message of a lower-than-expected earnings in the first half.

Airbus Group shares fell 0.92% after the group said it terminated an order for six A380 aircraft to Skymark Airlines.

Prices for Brent crude fell slightly, but held above $ 107 per barrel, which is associated with a sufficient supply in the market, while geopolitical issues in the Middle East, Africa and Ukraine. As for oil WTI, then its value has fallen more significantly.

"If there is no new problems with the production, world production in 2014 will grow by 1.8 million barrels per day, it is the fastest growth in a decade," - wrote in the report, analysts Morgan Stanley.

Iraq oil exports support nearly at record levels, as production in the southern fields has not suffered from bouts with Islamists in the north. Libyan capital Tripoli in chaos, but analysts say that the low production in the country has already been included in the quotations of oil. We also add that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of the possibility of prolonged conflict in Gaza, shattering the hope to end the conflict in the near future.

Pressure on prices also have expectations issue fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude oil and refined products to gauge the strength of demand in the world's largest oil consumer. Later today, the American Petroleum Institute will release its report on stocks, while a government report, scheduled for Wednesday may show that oil stocks fell by 1 million barrels for the week ended July 25.

Investors were also cautious in anticipation of the announcement of the outcome of the Fed meeting. The central bank will probably priderzhetsya their schedules and reduce program of monthly purchases of bonds by $ 10 billion per month - up to $ 25 billion Meanwhile, preliminary data on U.S. economic growth in the second quarter, scheduled for Wednesday, and the employment report for July, which is scheduled Friday is expected to show that the economic recovery is stored.

The cost of the September futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 101.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

September futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell 18 cents to $ 107.32 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Gold prices fell markedly today, due to the uncertainty before a meeting of the Federal Reserve System and the output of key U.S. data this week.

Today starts a two-day meeting of the Fed, the results of which will be announced tomorrow. It is expected that the Fed will keep rates folding third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and reduce its volume by another $ 10 billion to $ 25 billion this is likely the purchase of assets to a halt in October. However, the main debate between FOMC members deployed around the timing of rising interest rates, experts say. Most managers tend to delay the Fed first rate hike as long as they do not have confidence in the stabilization of the country's economic recovery. Many analysts believe that rates will remain at near zero level until at least mid 2015.

"The gold market will remain in the range up to the Fed meeting and economic reports this week. Prices will stay at around $ 1,300, because geopolitical tensions gives strong support to the market ", - said the director of Intelligence Wing Fung Financial Group That Mark.

It is also worth noting that today the EU Council in Permanent Session to 28 countries previously agreed community today at a meeting in Brussels on economic sanctions against Russia, which will affect the financial, defense and energy industry.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of the possibility of prolonged conflict in Gaza, shattering the hope to end the conflict in the near future.

On the physical gold market situation has not changed: buyers are still waiting for lower prices and margins in China are stable at $ 03.02 per ounce.

The course of trade also affected previously submitted data for the U.S., which showed that consumer confidence index from the Conference Board rose in July to 90.9 (1985 = 100), compared with 86.4 in June. The current conditions index rose to 88.3 from 86.3, while the expectations index rose to 92.7 from 86.4 in June.

The cost of the August gold futures on the COMEX today fell by $ 6.2 - to $ 1297.20 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3570

USD/JPY Y101.55/65, Y101.75, Y101.85/90

USD/CAD C$1.0735, C$1.0765, C$1.0810, C$1.0880

EUR/GBP Stg0.8000

U.S. stock futures advanced amid optimism over corporate earnings before a Federal Reserve policy decision tomorrow.

Global markets:

Nikkei 15,618.07 +88.67 +0.57%

Hang Seng 24,640.53 +211.90 +0.87%

Shanghai Composite 2,183.19 +5.24 +0.24%

FTSE 6,827.11 +39.04 +0.58%

CAC 4,381.81 +37.04 +0.85%

DAX 9,668.32 +70.15 +0.73%

Crude oil $100.74 (-0.92%)

Gold $1308.40 (+0.39%)

(company / ticker / price / change, % / volume)

Upgrades:

Downgrades:

Wal-Mart (WMT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman

Other:

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3500-10, $1.3485, $1.3440-50

Bids $1.3420, $1.3410-09

GBP/USD

Offers $1.7080, $1.7065

Bids $1.6920, $1.6900

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9480, $0.9450, $0.9420/25

Bids $0.9385/80, $0.9370, $0.9350, $0.9320

EUR/JPY

Offers Y137.75/80, Y137.50, Y137.20/25

Bids Y136.85/80, Y136.50, Y136.00

USD/JPY

Offers Y102.20, Y102.04

Bids Y101.85/80, Y101.50, Y101.20

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8000, stg0.7980/85, stg0.7950

Bids stg0.7900

European stocks erased their advance as Renault SA dragged carmakers lower, offsetting reports of better-than-expected profit at companies including BP Plc and Ferrovial SA. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares climbed.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.1 percent to 341.01 at 9:14 a.m. in London, erasing a gain of as much as 0.3 percent. The benchmark trades at 15.5 times the projected earnings of its members, more than the multiple of 13.9 at the beginning of this year and the five-year average of 12.6, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.3 percent.

"What we are still missing is a very positive beat, but the outlook for the year and the results in the third quarter will be more important," said Carsten Hilck, who oversees about $4 billion at Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH in Frankfurt. "Even though valuations are a little bit stretched now, it's still not too expensive to remain invested."

Renault slid 3.2 percent as the French carmaker revealed that it is consuming more cash than it did a year ago.

BP climbed after the oil producer also announced a dividend that matched estimates.

Ferrovial gained 1.4 percent after the Spanish construction company posted first-half profit that exceeded projections and said it will buy back shares.

FTSE 100 6,803.96 +15.89 +0.23%

CAC 40 4,346.12 +1.35 +0.03%

DAX 9,603.03 +4.86 +0.05%

EUR/USD $1.3350, $1.3400, $1.3450, $1.3490, $1.3500, $1.3570

USD/JPY Y101.55/65, Y101.75, Y101.85/90

USD/CAD C$1.0735, C$1.0765, C$1.0810, C$1.0880

EUR/GBP Stg0.8000

Asian stocks rose for a third day, with the regional benchmark index extending a six-year high, ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting starting today.

HANG SENG 24,633.64 +205.01 +0.84%

S&P/ASX 200 5,588.4 +11.01 +0.20%

TOPIX 1,290.41 +4.34 +0.34%

SHANGHAI COMP 2,183.04 +5.09 +0.23%

Nissan Motor Co. climbed 1.9 percent after carmaker's earnings beat analyst estimates on higher sales in China.

Keyence Corp. jumped 3 percent in Tokyo after the supplier of sensors and measuring instruments reported a 33 percent increase in first-quarter net income.

QBE Insurance Group Ltd. tumbled 11 percent after Australia's second-biggest insurer said profit in the six months ended June 30 may fall 18 percent due to higher claims in Argentina.

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m June -4.3% +1.2%

The dollar was within 0.1 percent of its strongest in almost six weeks against major peers before reports this week that may show the U.S. economy rebounded and employers boosted payrolls. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the Commerce Department will say tomorrow that U.S. gross domestic product climbed an annualized 3 percent last quarter, indicating the fastest pace of growth for the world's biggest economy since the quarter ended September 2013 and a rebound from a 2.9 percent contraction in January to March of this year.

Economists in separate poll forecast Labor Department data due Aug. 1 will indicate employers boosted payrolls in July by more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth-straight month.

Interest-rate increases may come "sooner and be more rapid than currently envisioned" if the labor market continues to improve more quickly than anticipated, Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers this month.

New Zealand's dollar remained lower after falling yesterday to the weakest in more than a month.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3435-40

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6975

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y102.00

A generally light data calendar for Monday (US Svcs PMI at 1345GMT then pending home sales at 1400GMT the stand out interest) with moves to come from end month flows and any geopolitical developments.

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3521 (1332)

$1.3490 (844)

$1.3467 (196)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3430

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3414 (7011)

$1.3395 (3652)

$1.3368 (3365)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 28741 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3600 (3997);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 34440 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (7011);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.20 versus 1.21 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 28

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7200 (1636)

$1.7101 (2035)

$1.7004 (988)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6969

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6897 (2167)

$1.6799 (2403)

$1.6700 (1157)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 8 is 16929 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7250 (2424);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 8 is 25502 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2679);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.51 versus 1.51 from the previous trading day according to data from Jule, 28

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

(raw materials / closing price /% change)

Light Crude 101.51-0.16%

Gold 1,304.40 +0.08%

(index / closing price / change items /% change)

Nikkei 225 15,529.4 +71.53 +0.46%

Hang Seng 24,428.63 +212.62 +0.88%

Shanghai Composite 2,177.95 +51.33 +2.41%

FTSE 100 6,788.07 -3.48 -0.05%

CAC 40 4,344.77 +14.22 +0.33%

Xetra DAX 9,598.17 -45.84 -0.48%

S&P 500 1,978.91 +0.57 +0.03%

NASDAQ 4,444.91 -4.65 -0.10%

Dow Jones 16,982.59 +22.02 +0.13%

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,3439 +0,07%

GBP/USD $1,6981 +0,04%

USD/CHF Chf0,9038 -0,09%

USD/JPY Y101,84 +0,02%

EUR/JPY Y136,86 +0,08%

GBP/JPY Y172,93 +0,05%

AUD/USD $0,9403 +0,10%

NZD/USD $0,8547 -0,06%

USD/CAD C$1,0797 -0,14%

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m June -4.3%

08:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln June 2.7 2.6

08:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals June 62 63

13:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y May +10.8% +9.8%

14:00 U.S. Consumer confidence July 85.2 85.5

20:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories July -0.6

22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m June -4.6%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) June +0.7% -1.0%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) June +1.0%