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29.07.2011
19:37
Fed's Lockhart prefer to to remain current monetary policy accomodation
19:11
House of Representatives is expected to vote on Boehner bill at around 02:00 GMT
18:33
Ratings: summary of ratings for eurozone countries

             Rating agancy
Country           S&P           Fitch      Moody's
Portugal     BBB-(neg) BBB- (RWN) Ba2 (neg)
Ireland       BBB+(stb) BBB+ (neg) Ba1 (neg)
Italy           A+ (neg)  AA- (stb)     Aa2 (review)
Greece       CC (neg)  CCC (---)     Ca (develp)
Spain         AA (neg)   AA+ (neg)   Aa2 (neg)
Austria       AAA(stb)   AAA (stb)     Aaa (stb)
Belgium     AA+(neg)  AA+ (neg)    Aa1 (stb)
Finland       AAA(stb)  AAA (stb)      Aaa (stb)
Germany    AAA(stb)   AAA (stb)     Aaa (stb)
France        AAA(stb)  AAA (stb)     Aaa (stb)
Netherlands AAA(stb)  AAA (stb)     Aaa (stb)

18:26
US focus: Dollar rebounds

US dollar bounces back versus a basket of currencies after the huge drop amid release of weak US data. Before the opening bell the data on U.S. preliminary Q2 GDP showed the U.S. economy grew only by 1.3% while average forecast was at 1.6%. First-quarter GDP was revesed to +0.4% from +1.9%.
The dollar received some support from slight progress in solving the problem of US debt ceiling.
The euro is under pressure as today an international rating agency Moody's placed Spain's AA2 credit rating under review for a possible downgrade. IMF said that a moderate recovery of Spain faces potentially 'severe' risks and noted that spread of debt crisis to Spain would have global impact
Canadian dollar goes up versus the US dollar. Earlier the loonie sharply fell versus major currencies amid reports that showed decline in GDP and raw material price index.
The Swiss frank sheds against the dollar after Swiss central bank saw its first-half loss nearly quadruple from a year earlier on the declining value of its international reserves.
Japan yen begins to retreat versus the dollar amid the rise of the latter.

17:46
Shares reverse sharp early gains as Street analysts are unimpressed with the company's plan to monetize the Alipay payment system, one of its key Asian assets.
17:41
Spain: IMF about economy of Spain
  • Moderate recovery faces potentially 'severe' risks
  • Spread of debt crisis to Spain would have global impact
  • France, Germany to be hardest hit if contagion hits Spain
  • Spain's GDP growth seen 0.8% in 2011, 1.6% in 2012
  • Inflation seen 3% in 2011, 1.7% in 2012
  • 2011 public sector deficit 6% of GDP
17:23
Dow 12,171 -69 -0.56% Nasdaq 2,762 -4 -0.15% S&P 500 1,296 -5 -0.38%

Currently all 8 of 9 major sectors suffer losses. The Basil Materials declined more that others (-1.3%). Industrial Goods holds in green zone (+0.1%).

17:03
US: Sen Raid speaks in Congress
  • Sen Reid said he is willing to take suggestions from Senate GOP and is confident that Sen. McConnell will come back with suggestions. Talks again about compromise.
  • Sen Reid said he would be happy to look at alternatives and will give Senate GOP all the time they need.
  • Democrats' plan is said to be on standby.
  • Key vote in Senate is sheduled to be about midnight ET on Saturday.

 

16:17
US: comments
  • S&P says the US needs to keep its AAA.
  • Steve Barrow of Standard Bank puts the odds of a downgrade at about 80%-90% and looksfor the dollar to suffer accordingly. 
16:01
European stocks close: FTSE -58 (-0.99%)5,815, CAC -40 (-1.07%) 3,673, DAX -31(-0.44%) 7,159
14:48
US: Barak Obama about debt ceiling
  • Pres Obama said that Boehner plan does not resolve the problem and has no chance of passage.
  • He also urged Democrats to find common ground, saying there is rough agreement on spending cuts.
  • Obama urged American people to call Congress, keep up pressure and ask for a debt bill.
14:36
EUR/USD retreats

EUR/USD printed session highs on $1.4392. But rate failed to break above the figure and retreated to current $1.4366. Offers mentioned at $1.4400, extending to $1.4410 with stops above.

14:22
GBP/USD back to figure

GBP/USD printed session highs on $1.6430 before retreated to figure. Rate earlier rallied from session lows around $1.6261 following the weak US GDP release. Offers placed at $1.6440, extending to $1.6450 with stops above. A break here to open a move toward $1.6470/80 ahead of $1.6495/00.

14:08
Dow -91.61 at 12148.50, Nasdaq -21.89 at 2744.36, S&P -9.90 at 1290.77

The majors recovered a bit off their worst levels of the session, but still hold large losses with all three trade down 0.8%.
The Nasdaq is pacing today’s decline with a loss of 1.1%.
The final July Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan came in at 63.7, down slighlty from the preliminary reading of 63.8.

13:56
US: July final Rtrs-U/Mich consumer sentiment 63.7
13:52
Median on Reuters/Michigan Consumer confidence (at 13:55 GMT): 64.1
13:45
US: July Chicago PM index 58.8
13:40
Median on Chicago PMI (at 13:45 GMT): 60.2
13:38
Option expires for 14:00 GMT NY cut

EUR/USD  $1.4075, $1.4400, $1.4450
USD/JPY Y77.10, Y78.00, Y78.30, Y79.00
EUR/JPY Y112.60
AUD/USD $1.0800, $1.0850, $1.0965, $1.1000

13:22
Before the bell: GDP data may drag the stocks down

U.S. stocks were headed for an early sell-off Friday after the government said economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter.
U.S. stocks lost steam late in Thursday's session, pushing the Dow lower for the fifth straight session. It's all about the debt ceiling, which must be raised by Aug. 2, when the Treasury will no longer be able to pay all its bills.
Even if Boehner's plan does pass the House, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has promised the Democratic-controlled Senate will block it, and President Obama has threatened a veto.
Moody's said it may downgrade Spanish debt.

Economy: The government reported that second-quarter GDP growth was only 1.3%, up from a revised 0.4% rate in the previous three months. That was far worse than expected.
After the opening bell, the Chicago purchasing managers index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released.
Companies: Drugmaker Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 95 cents per share - in line with analyst expectations. The company said it that it would reduce its workforce by 12% to 13% from 2009 levels by the end of 2015 as the next phase of a restructuring program.
Shares of Starbucks (SBUX, Fortune 500) were up 2.4% in premarket trading after the company beat earnings expectations on Thursday.
Dow member and oil giant Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) will also report before the bell. Analysts are looking for Chevron to earn $3.56 a share.

13:08
EUR/USD pauses

EUR/USD takes some pause around $1.4345 and retreats a bit. Rate earlier rocketed after the dissapointing US GDP data. Offers in place at $1.4350/60. Rate currently holds around $1.4320.

12:50
News reaction:

Much weaker than expected US GDP report sends stock futures into dip red with the Dow futures down more then 100 points.
Dollar collapced and curently USD/CHF holds at a new record lows on Chf0.7910, while USD/JPY - at Y77.11.

12:33
US: Q1 rev down to +0.4%
12:32
CANADA: May GDP -0.3% m/m
12:31
US: Q2 real GDP +1.3% y/y
12:01
EU session review: Yen and Franc higher amid US debt-vote delay

Data released:
06:00     UK     Nationwide house price index (July)    0.2%    -0.2%    0.0%
06:00     UK     Nationwide house price index (July) Y/Y    -0.4%    -0.8%    -1.1%
06:00     Germany     Retail sales (June) real adjusted    6.3%    -    -2.8%
06:00     Germany     Retail sales (June) real unadjusted Y/Y    -1.0%    -    2.2%
06:45     France     PPI (June)    -0.1%    -0.2%    -0.5%
06:45     France     PPI (June) Y/Y    6.1%    5.8%    6.0%
06:45     France     Consumer spending (June)    1.2%    0.5%    -0.8%
06:45     France     Consumer spending (June) Y/Y     1.8%    0.4%    -1.8%
08:30     UK     M4 money supply (June) final    -0.5%    -    0.1%
08:30     UK     M4 money supply (June) final Y/Y    -0.7%    -    -0.2%
08:30     UK     Consumer credit (June), bln     0.4    0.3    0.2
09:00     EU(17)     Harmonized CPI (July) Y/Y preliminary  2.5%       2.7%    2.7%

The yen and Swiss franc rose as Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut Spain’s credit ranking and U.S. lawmakers delayed voting on a plan to raise the debt limit to avert a default.
The franc headed for an eighth monthly advance versus the greenback, the longest streak of gains in 17 years, while the Australian and New Zealand currencies declined.
The dollar headed for a fourth weekly loss versus the yen before a government report today that economists said will show growth slowed last quarter.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.8% in the three months ended June 30, compared with 1.9% in the previous quarter.
Spain’s Aa2 ratings were placed on review for possible downgrade by Moody’s.

EUR/USD printed a new session lows on $1.4228 before recovered to $1.4257.

GBP/USD initially fell to $1.6260 before back to $1.6290.


USD/JPY under pressure below session highs on Y77.80.

US data starts with the much-awaited GDP data at 1230GMT.
Data continues at 1345GMT when the Chicago PMI is forecast to hold steady at 61.1 in July. At 1355GMT, the preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to revised up to a reading of 64.0 in July.

11:22
USD/JPY declines

USD/JPY declines and currently holds around Y77.55. Initial bids at Y77.35/30 a break to open barrier interest at Y77.25 and a combination of barrier/stops through Y77.00.

10:01
AUD/USD holds above lows

AUD/USD holds around $1.0944 as euro recovers off lows. Support on $1.0930/20 with a break under opens the way to $1.0870/60. Offers around $1.1000/10, larger offers at $1.1080.

09:46
Ireland central bank: There is considerable progress in recapitalizing Irish banks
  • sees Irish GDP growth of 0.8% in 2011, 2.1% in 2012
  • estimates HICP inflation at 1.0% in 2011, 0.6% in 2012
09:27
FTSE 5,840 -33.16 -0.56%, CAC 3,684 -28.65 -0.77%, DAX 7,144 -46.47 -0.65%
09:24
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD  $1.4075, $1.4400, $1.4450
USD/JPY Y77.10, Y78.00, Y78.30, Y79.00
EUR/JPY Y112.60
AUD/USD $1.0800, $1.0850, $1.0965, $1.1000

09:00
EMU DATA: Eurozone annual inflation slowed more than expected to +2.5%
08:31
UK data: Consumer Credit (Jun) £0.4
08:22
Asian session: The yen and Swiss franc strengthened

Data:
05:00 Japan Housing starts (June) Y/Y 5.8%
05:00 Japan Construction orders (June) Y/Y 6.0%

The yen and Swiss franc strengthened toward records against the dollar after U.S. lawmakers delayed a vote on a plan to raise the debt limit to avert a default, boosting demand for refuge currencies.
The franc extended its sixth monthly gain, the longest in 17 years, after U.S. Representative Kevin McCarthy told reporters yesterday in Washington that there would be no House vote that day. 
The euro weakened for a third day against the dollar and the yen after Moody’s Investors Service said it may cut Spain’s credit rating. The 
Australian and New Zealand dollars declined as a slide in Asian stocks sapped demand for higher-yielding assets.
The dollar headed for a fourth weekly loss versus the yen before a government report today that economists said will show growth slowed last quarter.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.8 percent in the three months ended June 30, compared with 1.9 percent in the previous quarter, according to economists.

EUR/USD: the pair shown high in $1.4360 area then decreased.
GBP/USD: the pair  decreased in $1.6320  area.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in  Y77.50 area.

The EMU flash HICP data for June at 0900GMT is expected to hold at 2.7% y/y.
US data starts with the much-awaited GDP data at 1230GMT, released along with the latest Employment Cost Index and ISM-NY Business Index. The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is for a 1.9% rate of growth, the same as in the previous quarter. PCE is expected to post a smaller increase than in the previous quarter, but stronger 
non-residential fixed investment and a smaller drag from trade and government spending should provide some offset. Residential investment is expected to again be a modest subtraction. The chain price index is forecast to rise 2.0% in the quarter, the same as in the first quarter. 
The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.5% in second quarter after the 0.6% rise in the previous quarter.

Data continues at 1345GMT when the Chicago PMI is forecast to hold steady at 61.1 in July. At 1355GMT, the preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to revised up to a reading of 64.0 in July. 

08:17
Forex: Thursday's review

The U.S. Congress Republicans and Democrats are still locked in a stalemate on raising the debt ceiling.
Even believing there will be a last-minute deal on the debt ceiling, the head of China's Dagong rating agency still plans to cut its U.S. rating soon. He said that the only question will be the size of the move.
Dollar fell after statement by Richmond Fed Lacker about US economy.
The euro rising against the dollar after a huge drop, which was triggered as yesterday rating agency S&P downgraded the credit rating of Greece to 'CC' from 'CCC' with negative outlook. The downgrade of Greece by 2 notches takes it to the same level as Moody's Ca rating (developing outlook).
The kiwi slightly dropped against the dollar. The currency rose toward a record high after the central bank said it will likely remove the half-percentage-point “insurance” cut in the target lending rate made after a February earthquake. But the rise was curbed as Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard signaled that strength of New Zealand’ dollar may reduce the extent of rate increases.
Japan yen also went up as US President and the senators still haven’t reached an agreement on raising the US national debt..

EUR/USD: the pair shown low at  $1.4250 area then grown and finished session in $1.4320  area.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair  restored in $1.6370  area.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in Y77.70  area.

The EMU flash HICP data for June at 0900GMT is expected to hold at 2.7% y/y.
US data starts with the much-awaited GDP data at 1230GMT, released along with the latest Employment Cost Index and ISM-NY Business Index. The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is for a 1.9% rate of growth, the same as in the previous quarter. PCE is expected to post a smaller increase than in the previous quarter, but stronger 
non-residential fixed investment and a smaller drag from trade and government spending should provide some offset. Residential investment is expected to again be a modest subtraction. The chain price index is forecast to rise 2.0% in the quarter, the same as in the first quarter. 
The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.5% in second quarter after the 0.6% rise in the previous quarter.
Data continues at 1345GMT when the Chicago PMI is forecast to hold steady at 61.1 in July. At 1355GMT, the preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to revised up to a reading of 64.0 in July. 

08:11
Asia Pacific stocks close:

Nikkei 9,833 -68.32 -0.69% 
Hang Seng  22,420 -150.58 -0.67%  
S&P/ASX   4,425 -39.13 -0.88%   
Shanghai Composite  2,702 -7.05 -0.26% 

07:43
Stocks: Thursday's review

Most of Asian stock markets closed Tuesday in red zone. The markets started the day significantly lower amid worries the US may don’t reach consensus by 2 August.
Only Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index  managed to closed  higher amid a rise of shares of real-estate companies.
The markets appeared under pressure by ongoing debate of Republicans and Democrats and weak US statistics.
Technology firms were some of the worst U.S. performers, with those losses spreading to Asia on Thursday. In Tokyo, Elpida Memory Inc. plunged by 4.8%, and chip-equipment maker Advantest Corp. dropped by 6.9% after posting a fall in quarterly profit and delivering a downbeat outlook.
LG Electronics Inc. ended the day 2.7% lower, and Hynix Semiconductor Inc. went down 1.1% in South Korea.
Sony Corp., which fell 1.1%, reported after the close that it swung to a first-quarter net loss.
Panasonic Corp. managed to buck the market downtrend, rising 0.5% amid reports that the firm would sell Sanyo Electric Co. home-appliance units to China’s Haier Electronics Group Co. The Haier fell by 1.6% in Hong Kong.

European stock exchanges ended Tuesday mixed. The markets have been falling during the day amid uncertainty on US debt ceiling, but received a strong support of a bundle of positive US corporate reports. The markets was also still under pressure by yesterday’s downgraded of Greek credit rating to 'CC' from 'CCC' with negative outlook by rating agency S&P.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index  was boosted after weekly jobless claims fell to a three-month low.
Results were a key focus for Europe in the early going, with deep losses for several stocks after poorly received company updates: shares of Vallourec SA sank 16.8%, shares of telecom equipment provider Alcatel-Lucent fell by 15.3%.  
Mining stocks pressured London, with Lonmin PLC  falling 2.8%, while Vedanta Resources PLC dropping 1.7%.
In London, support came “from an unlikely place as the banking sector benefits from some short-term bargain hunting”: shares of heavyweight Lloyds rallied 4.1%, while Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC rose 3.6%.
Weighing on the market, shares of BP PLC fell 0.3%. They’ve lost around 2.5% this week after the oil major’s second-quarter results posted on Tuesday showed profit missed estimates.
Shares of telecommunications provider BT Group PLC also rose, up 3.8%. First-quarter results showed a higher net profit, with the group saying it’s confident of meeting its full-year forecast as well.
Sector heavyweight Xstrata PLC also traded down, off 1.3%. The company announced it will buy privately held First Coal Corp. of Canada for $153 million. 

U.S. stock indexes also closed mixed. The markets were supported by strong data on labor market, but plunged on a stalemate on raising the US debt ceiling.
After hours the US House is scheduled to vote on Boehner debt bill. Even if the measure passes, it is expected to die in the Senate, and President Obama has threatened to veto it.
Richmond Fed Lacker about US economy also didn’t support the markets. The Fed president said about his forecasts that GDP growth would hit 4% the next 2 years, while the inflation would rise to average close to 2% over the coming year.
Economy: Today’s data on jobless claims showed better than expected growth (398K vs. est. 425K and prev. 418K), but couldn’t supported the futures substantial.
The other report showed that the National Association of Realtors' index for pending home sales increased 2.4% on a monthly basis, beating economists' expectations for a decline. 
Investors are also looking ahead to Friday's second-quarter GDP report.
Companies:
Negative finansial results also provided such companies as IMAX Corporation (IMAX) (-17%), Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL) (-9%), Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) (-13%).
Beating reported were published by coffee producer Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) (+16%), manufacturer of colorful plastic shoes CROCS Inc. (CROX) (+16%), data center services provider Equinix Inc. (EQIX) (+9%), Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE) (+5%).
 

07:28
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3: Y78.70 (area of Jul 22 and 26 high) 

Resistance 2: Y78.20 (Jul 27 high) 
Resistance 1: Y77.90 (session high) 
Current price: Y77.52
Support 1:Y77.40 (session low)  
Support 2:Y77.10 (Mar 17 low)  
Support 3:Y76.50 (Mar 16 low)  

Comments: the pair decreases. The immediate  support - Y77.40. Below losses are possible to Y77.10. The immediate resistance - Y77.90. Above growth is possible to Y78.20.

07:23
Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 2: Chf0.8180 (close price of the last week)

Resistance 2: Chf0.8090 (Jul 18 low)
Resistance 1: Chf0.8050 (Jul 27-28 high)
Current price: Chf0.8000
Support 1: Chf0.7990 (area of Jul 26-28 low)
Support 2: Chf0.7950 (psychological mark)
Support 3: Chf0.7900 (psychological mark)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The immediate support - Chf0.7990. Below loss may extend to Chf0.7950. The immediate resistance Chf0.8050. Above is located Chf0.8090. 

06:50
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6470 (Jun 7 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.6440 (Jun 14 and 27 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6380 (Jul 28 high)
Current price: $1.6342
Support 1 : $1.6290 (Jul 28 low)
Support 2 : $1.6260 (Jul 22-25 low)
Support 3 : $1.6190 (38.2 % FIBO $1.5780-$ 1.6440)
Comments: the pair holds at $1.6340 area. The immediate resistance - $1.6380. Above growth is possible to $1.6440. The immediate support - $1.6290. Below decrease is  possible to $1.6260. 

06:48
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4540 (Jul 26-27 high)

Resistance 2: $ 1.4400 (Jul 28 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4365 (session high)
Current price: $1.4309
Support 1 : $1.4250 (Jul 28 low)
Support 2 : $1.4190 (50.0 % FIBO $1.3840-$ 1.4540)
Support 3 : $1.4140 (Jul 21 low)
Comments: the pair holds above $1/4300. The immediate  support - $1.4250. Below losses are possible to $1.4190. The immediate resistance - $1.4365. Above growth is possible to $1.4400. 

06:18
MOODY's: Downgrades ratings of six Spanish regions. Ratings on other Spain sub-sovereign entities on review
06:00
GERMANY DATA: June real sa retail sales +6.3% m/m, -1.0% y/y
05:54
UK: Nationwide UK July House Prices 0.2% m/m; -0.4% y/y
05:41
Schedule for today, Friday, Jul'29'2011:

05:00 Japan Housing starts (June) Y/Y 5.1% 6.4%
05:00 Japan Construction orders (June) Y/Y - 25.5%
06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (July) -0.2% 0.0%
06:00 UK Nationwide house price index (July) Y/Y -0.8% -1.1%
08:30 UK Consumer credit (June), bln 0.3 0.2
09:00 EU(17) Harmonized CPI (July) Y/Y preliminary 2.7% 2.7%
12:30 USA GDP (Q2) advance Y/Y 1.6% 1.9%
12:30 USA PCE price index (Q2) advance - 3.9%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q2) advance - 1.6%
13:45 USA Chicago PMI (July) 60.6 61.1
13:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (July) final 64.0 63.8

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