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EUR/USD under pressure

Euro slips as dollar gains lift on higher yields seen in the wake of the sloppy 5 year auction, euro easing to $1.3105 and thus withing striking distance of the day's low at $1.3092. Area of 200d MA at $1.3085 still expected to support. Resistance eyed around $1.31030/35.

Dow +18.84 at 11573.87, Nasdaq -4.99 at 2662.28, S&P +0.44 at 1257.98

The S&P 500 has snuck back into positive territory. Its gain is only fractional, though.
Meanwhile, Treasuries have come under increased pressure in the wake of the 5-year Note auction. Dollar demand at the auction, which totaled $91.4 billion, was the lowest since July 2009.

American focus:
US ollar gained ground against the main rivals as house prices and consumer confidence have fallen by more than expected, according to data released on Tuesday, emphasising the lingering risk that a weak housing market will dent domestic demand and undermine the US economic recovery. According to the widely followed Case-Shiller index, house prices dropped by 1.3 per cent between September and October, the fourth consecutive month in which prices have fallen. Prices across 20 US urban areas stood 0.8 per cent below the level of October 2009, a sharper fall than economists had expected. Separately, the Conference Board, a research group, said that its index of consumer confidence had declined to 52.5 in December from a revised reading of 54.3 in November, confounding the expectations of most economists who had predicted an increase to nearly 57. Although the index remained above the level suggesting expansion, Lynn Franco, director of the consumer research centre at the Conference Board, said that the news was sobering. “Consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy and labour market remains tepid, and their outlook remains cautious,” she said. Consumers’ assessments of the current situation and their expectations for the future also fell back in December. The Swiss franc strengthened to a record against the dollar and snapped a three-day decline versus the euro after a government report showed French economic growth slowed more than originally estimated. Last week, by contrast with Tuesday’s Conference Board measure, the rival University of Michigan consumer survey reported an improvement in household confidence.
Dow +0.04 at 11555.07, Nasdaq -7.05 at 2660.22, S&P -0.76 at 1256.78

Precious metals prices are at their best levels of the day and appear unfazed by the dollar's push into positive territory. With the dollar up 0.1% and just off of its session high, silver prices are up 2.9% to $30.09 per ounce while gold prices are up 1.6% to $1405 per ounce.
Strength in gold and silver prices has helped prop up names like Newmont Mining (NEM 61.61, +1.50) and Barrick Gold (ABX 53.06, +1.46). Their gains have helped keep the broader materials sector in positive territory with a 0.2% gain.

US DATA: Dec Conference Bd consumer confidence 52.5 vs 54.3r but Conf Bd says signs are that expansion will continue.
US DATA: Dec Richmond Fed mfg index +25 vs +9.
US DATA: Redbook sales for Dec 25:
"The Christmas week was above target for most. Sales improved and traffic counts were up on days leading up to Christmas. Retailers said most the week's business was done on the 24th, the day immediately before Christmas. Shoppers flocked to stores for last minute shopping and took advantage of deep discounts. Retailers have now shifted their merchandising focus to post-Christmas clearance, especially at the more seasonal department stores. Retailers are hoping that consumers redeem their gift cards." - Year-over-year: Week (w/e 12/25/10 vs year-ago) 4.6% Year-over-year: Month (December 2010 vs December 2009) 3.6% Month-over-month: (December 2010 vs November 2010) 0.4%
US DATA: Oct S&P Case-Shiller home prices -1.3% MOM (NSA) for -0.8% YOY.
EU equities retreat

European equities limped forward on Tuesday in a low-volume session as investors remained cautious following China’s decision to raise interest rates on Saturday.
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index still crawled up 0.1% to 1,138.79, however, paring some of the 0.9% losses in the previous session.
One of the biggest gainers on the Eurofirst index was Alcatel-Lucent, the telecommunications equipment manufacturer, which rose after it agreed to pay US authorities $137m to resolve allegations that it bribed Latin American and Asian government officials to win telecoms contracts.
US authorities alleged that Alcatel subsidiaries paid $14m in phony consulting contracts as part of the bribery scheme and made illicit payments to officials in Honduras, Taiwan and Malaysia, from 2001 through to 2006.
Investors greeted the news positively, with shares in the company rising 1.6%.
Elsewhere in Europe, Tenaris, the specialist steel pipe maker fell 2.5% after Exane BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “outperform” on valuation grounds.
ArcelorMittal, the French steelmaker, also lost ground falling 0.4%.

Sumitomo Mitsui on Japan's factory output data

“It’s nice to end the year with some good economic news,” said Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. “Japan’s still in a soft patch but today’s report signals there will be better times ahead, driven by the global recovery.”

Itochu Corp. on yen

“The strong yen is a big headache for Japan because it has to depend on exports to fuel its recovery,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, a senior economist at Itochu Corp.. “Companies won’t be comfortable about increasing wages and employment until their concern about the currency decreases.”

EU session review: Euro bounces back, dollar falls broadly

Data released
07:00    Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator (Nov)     1.63        1.72

The euro rose sharply as bears were forced to abandon their bets on Tuesday while the dollar came under broad selling pressure, hitting a three-week low against the yen and a seven-week low against the Australian dollar.
The euro jumped after stop-loss orders were triggered around $1.3200. Euro bears had been frustrated by the currency's firm support for more than a week at its 200-day moving average just below $1.31 and were giving up their positions for now.
Many in the market have been betting on more weakness in the euro due to persistent worries that some euro zone countries such as Spain and Portugal may need rescue programmes to finance their debt, tracking a path trodden by Greece and Ireland.
"It's a flow-driven market so it's hard to tell how long this rise in the euro will continue," said a trader at a European bank.
The euro could target $1.3278, a 50% retracement of its fall earlier this month from $1.3500 to $1.3055, and then around $1.3330-35, which includes a 61.8% retracement of the same decline as well as the pair's peak in August.
"Essentially the euro is rising on short-covering. I think we'll need to watch the market a bit more to see how investors plan to allocate their money after Christmas and in the new year," said Estuko Yamashita, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.
Sentiment towards the euro remains fragile and many traders think it could retest the Nov. 30 low of $1.2969.
The dollar was weaker against most other major currencies, falling to a seven-week low against the Australian dollar.
"U.S. bond yields fell yesterday. I think that's marginally negative for the dollar," said a trader at a Japanese bank.
The dollar also dropped to a three-week low of 82.40 yen, pressured by offers from Japanese exporters, many of which will be away later this week for the year-end and New Year holidays.
The dollar slipped below key support at its 55-day moving average around 82.62 yen and barely clung to support around 82.40 yen, the bottom of a daily ichimoku cloud.

EUR/USD printed session low on $1.3209 before it resumed its gains and currently holds around $1.3270.

GBP/USD fell from $1.5490 to $1.5410. But bulls were back on the market and rate recovered to session highs.

USD/JPY triggered some supports and still under pressure, holding under Y82.00.

US data starts at 1400GMT with S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Later data includes Consumer confidence at 1500GMT.

Gold rises

Spot gold prices firmed on Tuesday as it was supported by a weaker dollar and buying interest in Asia, while investors hoped for a further rally in prices next year. Spot gold gained more than half a percent to
$1,391.55 an ounce .

Nikko Cordial Securities on Japan CPI report

“The BOJ will probably be forced to reconsider its price projections,” Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Nikko Cordial Securities in Tokyo, said. “It’s highly likely that the period of deflation end will be pushed back further.”

EU indexes hold small gains

European stocks and U.S. futures were little changed after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index yesterday fell the most in a month, as investors await data from the world’s largest economy. Asian shares advanced.

Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica SA gained 1% after Iberdrola SA raised its stake in the Spanish company.
Alcatel- Lucent SA rose 1.5%. Tenaris SA fell after Exane BNP Paribas downgraded the shares.
Reports today may show American home prices dropped in October, a sign housing will remain a weak link into the new year, according to economists. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index of property values in 20 cities fell 0.2% from October 2009, the first decline since January.
Other data may show consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in December.

Asian session: The dollar fell

The dollar fell by the most in two weeks against the euro on concern a U.S. report today will show home prices declined, backing the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero.
The dollar weakened as economists surveyed said the S&P/Case-Shiller Index of property values will show its first decline since January.
Australia’s dollar rose to a six-week high on speculation China will succeed in curbing inflation, underpinning demand for higher-yielding assets. South Korea’s won reached the highest level in two weeks on prospects Asian economies are improving.
The S&P/Case-Shiller gauge of residential real-estate values declined 0.6 percent in October from the prior month, when it fell 0.8 percent, economists said before today’s data. The gauge lost 0.2 percent from a year earlier, the survey showed, and the index was down 29 percent in September from its July 2006 peak.

the pair shown high in the field of $1,3260.

GBP/USD: the pair shown high in the field of $1,5490 then decreased.

USD/USD: the pair decreased in around Y82,30.

US data starts at 1400GMT with S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Later data includes Consumer confidence at 1500GMT.

HONG KONG STOCKS: Hang Seng Index closes down 0.93% at 22,621.73.
Forex: Monday's review

The dollar touched a three-week low against the yen after China raised interest rates for the second time in just more than two months to contain inflation, boosting demand for refuge.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened against most of their major counterparts as China’s rate increase damped the outlook for spending in one of the biggest export markets for commodities from the two South Pacific countries. The euro gained against 14 or its 16 most-traded counterparts after failing to break through a technical level.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials dropped 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.2 percent.

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in around $1,3150.

GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,5370-$ 1,5460.

USD/USD: the pair decreased below mark Y82,80.

Stocks: Monday's review

Most Asian stocks climbed, with the regional benchmark near a 2 1/2-year high, as Japanese shares advanced after news reports of business alliances. Chinese stocks reversed earlier gains after the country’s official interest rates were raised over the weekend.
Elpida Memory Inc., the world’s third-largest maker of computer-memory chips, gained 1.6 percent after Kyodo news reported it is in talks with Taiwan semiconductor companies on a business tie-up. Canon Inc. and Hitachi Ltd. climbed at least 0.7 percent after the Nikkei newspaper said Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. plans to acquire control of their liquid- crystal display venture. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s No. 1 lender by market value, fell 0.7 percent after gaining as much as 1 percent in the wake of China’s decision to increase interest rates as it battles inflation.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2 percent to 135.52 as of 7:33 p.m. in Tokyo, with four stocks gaining for every three that fell. The gauge earlier touched an intraday high of 135.72, its topmost level since July 24, 2008.

European stocks retreated after the longest stretch of weekly gains for the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index since April.
Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG tumbled more than 4 percent after China, the world’s largest car market, raised interest rates for the second time in just over two months. Bankinter SA led banks lower, sliding 4.3 percent as the number of mortgages issued for Spanish homes plunged.
The Stoxx 600 slid 0.8 percent to 279.18 at the 5:30 p.m. close in Frankfurt, as almost four companies fell for every one that gained. The gauge has climbed for four straight weeks, extending this year’s advance to 10 percent, as better-than- estimated U.S. economic data overcame concern about Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis. The index last week climbed to the highest since before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008.
National benchmark indexes declined in all 16 western European markets that were open except Iceland. France’s CAC 40 slid 1 percent and Germany’s DAX dropped 1.2 percent. The U.K. and Ireland were closed for a public holiday.

Most U.S. stocks rose, extending the biggest December rally since 1991 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as American International Group Inc. led financial shares higher after obtaining $4.3 billion in bank credit lines.
AIG surged 11 percent, leading the gains in the S&P 500. Cisco Systems Inc. advanced 2.3 percent after Barron’s reported that the largest maker of networking equipment may initiate a dividend. Halliburton Co. and Baker Hughes Inc. declined at least 1 percent as oil retreated from a two-year high amid concern demand will slow after China raised interest rates to cool its economy.
The S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent to 1,258.30 as of 2:45 p.m. in New York after falling as much as 0.4 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 11.2 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,562.29. The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, rose 8.3 percent to 17.88 and climbed as much as 11 percent, the biggest intraday jump since Nov. 26.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.50 (МА(200) for Н1)
Resistance 2:Y83.00 (Dec 27 high)
Resistance 1:Y82.75 (resistance line from Dec 21)
Сurrent price: Y82.43
Support 1:Y82.30 (Dec 7 low, 50,0 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)
Support 2:Y81.90 (61,8 % FIBO Y80,20-Y84,50)

Support 3:Y80.20 (low of November)

Comments: the pair remains under pressure. The nearest support - Y82,30. Below losses are possible to Y81.90 are possible. The nearest resistance - Y82,75. Above growth is possible to Y83.00.

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9720 (Dec 6 low, Dec 17-20 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9665 (Dec 23 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9640 (Dec 27 high)
Current price: Chf0.9557
Support 1: Chf0.9530 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9500 (Dec 22-23 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9460 (low of October)

Comments: the pair bargains below a mark Сhf0,9600. The nearest support Chf0,9530. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9500. The nearest resistance Chf0,9640. Above is located Chf0.9665.

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.5630/50 (Dec 17 high, 50,0 % FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5350)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5565 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5910-$ 1,5350)

Resistance 1: $ 1.5490 (session high, МА (200) for Н1)
Current price: $1.5475
Support 1 : $1.5410 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.5350 (Dec 22 low)
Support 3 : $1.5300 (low of September)

Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - $1,5490. Above growth  is possible to $1,5565. The nearest support - $1,5410. Below decrease is possible to $1.5350.

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 2: $ 1.3470 (38,2 % FIBO $1,4285-$ 1,2970)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3360 (Dec 17 high)

Resistance 1: $ 1.3260 (session high)
Current price: $1.3224
Support 1 : $1.3160 (МА (200) for Н1)
Support 2 : $1.3070/50 (around of Dec 21-27 low)
Support 3 : $1.2970 (low of December and November)

Comments: the pair becomes stronger. The nearest resistance - $1,3260. Above growth is possible to $1,3360. The nearest support - $1,3160. Below decrease is possible to $1.3070/50.

Schedule for today, Tuesday, Dec'28'2010:

15:00     USA     Consumer confidence (December)         56.1    54.1

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