CFD Markets News and Forecasts — 28-05-2014

Gold $1,259.30 -6.10 -0.48%

ICE Brent Crude Oil $110.06 +0.04 +0.04%

NYMEX Crude Oil $103.01 -1.12 -1.08%

Nikkei 14,670.95 +34.43 +0.24%

Hang Seng 23,080.03 +135.73 +0.59%

Shanghai Composite 2,050.23 +15.66 +0.77%

S&P 1,909.78 -2.13 -0.11%

NASDAQ 4,225.08 -11.99 -0.28%

Dow 16,633.18 -42.32 -0.25%

FTSE 1,377.83 -0.99 -0.07%

CAC 4,531.63 +1.88 +0.04%

DAX 9,939.17 -1.65 -0.02%

EUR/USD $1,3592 -0,30%

GBP/USD $1,6710 -0,59%

USD/CHF Chf0,8982 +0,18%

USD/JPY Y101,82 -0,19%

EUR/JPY Y138,38 -0,51%

GBP/JPY Y170,12 -0,79%

AUD/USD $0,9232 -0,27%

NZD/USD $0,8496 -0,78%

USD/CAD C$1,0872 +0,14%

00:00 France Bank holiday

00:00 Germany Bank Holiday

00:00 Switzerland Bank holiday

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m April +0.2%

01:30 Australia Private Capital Expenditure Quarter I -5.2% -1.6%

12:30 Canada Current Account, bln Quarter I -16.0 -12.4

12:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims May 326 321

12:30 U.S. PCE price index, q/q Quarter I +3.0%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, q/q Quarter I +1.3%

12:30 U.S. GDP, q/q (Revised) Quarter I +0.1% -0.6%

14:00 U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) April +3.4% +1.1%

15:00 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories May -7.2

22:45 New Zealand Building Permits, m/m April +8.3%

23:05 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence May -3 -1

23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate April 3.6% 3.6%

23:30 Japan Household spending Y/Y April +7.2% -3.4%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y May +2.9%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y May +2.7% +2.9%

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y April +1.6%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y April +1.3%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Preliminary) April +0.7% -1.9%

23:50 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Preliminary) April +7.4%

Stock indices traded little changed due to expectations for further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank and weak economic data in the Eurozone.

The number of people unemployed in Germany surged by 24,000 this month to 2.905 million. That was the largest increase in five years in May. Analysts had expected a decline by 14,000.

The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. This figure was expected by analysts.

Consumer spending in France fell 0.3% in April, after a 0.4% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.5 increase. On a yearly basis, consumer spending in France dropped 0.5% in April, after a 1.2% fall in March.

Adjusted M3 money supply in the Eurozone climbed 0.8% in April, after a 1.1% increase in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.2% gain.

Private loans in the Eurozone declined 1.8% in April (March: -2.2%), beating expectations of a 2.1% fall.

Osram Licht AG shares dropped 6.3% after lowering its sales forecast for the full year.

Elekta AB shares declined 9.0% after reporting weaker-than-expected quarter earnings.

GlaxoSmithKline Plc declined 1.5% after revealing that the company is the subject of a criminal investigation.

Indexes on the close:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,851.22                              +6.28                      +0.09%

DAX                                     9,939.17                               -1.65                       -0.02%

CAC 40                                4,531.63                               +1.88                      +0.04%

West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a second day on speculation that U.S. supplies rose last week. Brent slipped.

WTI dropped as much as 0.7 percent. U.S. crude inventories may have increased 500,000 barrels to near the highest level for this time of year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts before a government report tomorrow. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, may have climbed from a five-year low, two of the analysts said.

“When you step back and consider the fundamental picture, we still have a lot of supplies,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “If we don’t continue to see tightening fundamentals, at these kinds of levels the market really has a hard time to attract new investment.”

WTI for July delivery slid 54 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $103.57 a barrel at 9:49 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures was 26 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for July settlement fell 49 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $109.53 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The volume of all futures was about 28 percent below the 100-day average. WTI was at a discount of $5.96 to Brent. The spread closed at $5.91 yesterday, the narrowest in six weeks.

The U.S. dollar rose against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was still boosted by the better-than-expected U.S. economic data, published on Tuesday. U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.8% in April, after a 2.9% gain in March. The U.S. consumer confidence index climbed to 83.0 in May, from 81.7 in April.

The euro hits 3-month lows against the U.S. dollar. The decrease of the euro was driven by the disappointing economic data in the Eurozone and expectations for further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank. The number of people unemployed in Germany surged by 24,000 this month to 2.905 million. That was the largest increase in five years in May. Analysts had expected a decline by 14,000.

The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. This figure was expected by analysts.

Consumer spending in France fell 0.3% in April, after a 0.4% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.5 increase. On a yearly basis, consumer spending in France dropped 0.5% in April, after a 1.2% fall in March.

Adjusted M3 money supply in the Eurozone climbed 0.8% in April, after a 1.1% increase in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.2% gain.

Private loans in the Eurozone declined 1.8% in April (March: -2.2%), beating expectations of a 2.1% fall.

The British pound hits 6-week lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected U.K. retail sale volumes. The Confederation of British Industry released the U.K. retail sale volumes on Wednesday. The U.K. retail sale volumes dropped unexpectedly in May. The CBI retail sales volume balance was +16 in May, from +30 in April. It means that retail sales volume climbed in May from last year.

The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland's gross domestic product climbed 0.5% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +0.2%), meeting analysts’ expectations.

On a yearly basis, Switzerland's gross domestic product rose 2.0% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +1.7%), missing analysts’ expectations of a 2.1% gain.

The New Zealand dollar hits 2.5-month lows against the U.S due to the weaker-than-expected New Zealand’s economic data. The ANZ business confidence index for New Zealand dropped to 53.5 in Mai, from 64.8 in April.

The Australian dollar traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Construction work done in Australia increased 0.3% in the first quarter, from a 1.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2013. The fourth quarter of 2013 figure was revised down to a 1.1% fall from a 1% decrease. Analysts had expected a 0.3% fall.

Australia’s April leading index from Westpac Bank and the Melbourne Institute fell 0.5% to a score of 98.0. That was the weakest reading since late 2011.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar after comments from the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda. He said that the monetary easing is possible even with interest rates at around zero percent. Market participants speculate that the Bank of Japan will implement further monetary easing measures to reach its inflation target.

Gold prices two months to keep the range , begin to decline : the precious metal futures in New York fell to a minimum of 15 weeks amid rising U.S. stock market to record highs .

Stocks exchange traded products (ETF), focused on gold, close to a minimum in 2009 , and investment company cut long positions in precious metals by a third compared with the peak of this year, recorded in March.

Gold loses ground won in the first quarter , when quotes rose to the maximum value for the period from 2008 to the aggravation of relations between Ukraine and Russia and winter slowing U.S. economy . Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA forecast that the precious metal , according to the results in 2013 cheapened by 28% , will continue to fall in price. Futures retreated 9.2 % of the maximum of this year, as disclosed in mid-March.

" I see no reason for the rise in price of gold - said the chief investment officer of Houston Kanaly Trust Co. James Shelton involved in managing assets for $ 2.1 billion - Investors continue to favor equities. Gold will be cheaper , unless there is a sharp jump inflation. "

In May quotes gold contracts fell by 2.4% after rising prices by less than 1 % in April, while the index Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot, reflecting the dynamics of 24 commodities rose 0.5 %. Global benchmark MSCI All-Country World since the beginning of the month rose by 1.6 % and the bonds Bloomberg Treasury Bond - 0.9%.

The cost of the June gold futures on the COMEX today dropped to $ 1257.0 per ounce.

EUR/USD $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3620-25, $1.3650, $1.3660-70, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.10-20, Y102.00, Y102.40

EUR/JPY Y138.45

EUR/GBP stg0.8085, stg0.8100, stg0.8105

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9250

NZD/USD $0.8570, $0.8600

USD/CAD C$1.0900, C$1.0975

U.S. stock futures are mixed as investors weighed corporate earnings before a report that may show a contraction in economic growth.

Global markets:

Nikkei 14,670.95 +34.43 +0.24%

Hang Seng 23,080.03 +135.73 +0.59%

Shanghai Composite 2,050.23 +15.66 +0.77%

FTSE 6,847.92 +2.98 +0.04%

CAC 4,526.53 -3.22 -0.07%

DAX 9,925.06 -15.76 -0.16%

Crude oil $103.98 (-0.12%)

Gold $1264.30 (-0.08%)

Upgrades:

Twitter Inc (TWTR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura

Downgrades:

Other:

Apple (AAPL) target raised to $700 from $615 at Bernstein

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    Japan                  BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks                                                           

00:30    Australia              Leading Index                           March       0.0%                    -0.5%

01:00    New Zealand       ANZ Business Confidence           May          64.8                      53.5

01:30    Australia              Construction Work Done          Quarter I  -1.1%     -0.3%     +0.3%

05:45    Switzerland          Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Quarter I  +0.2%   +0.5%    +0.5%

05:45    Switzerland          Gross Domestic Product (YoY)  Quarter I   +1.7%   +2.1%   +2.0%

06:00    Switzerland          UBS Consumption Indicator       April          1.84                      1.72

06:45    France                 Consumer spending                  April         +0.4%   +0.5%     -0.3%

06:45    France                 Consumer spending, y/y           April         -1.2%                    -0.5%

07:55    Germany             Unemployment Change             May           -25        -14            24

07:55    Germany             Unemployment Rate s.a.            May           6.7%     6.7%      6.7%

08:00    Eurozone             M3 money supply, adjusted y/y April         +1.1%  +1.2%    +0.8%

08:00    Eurozone             Private Loans, Y/Y                      April         -2.2%     -2.1%    -1.8%

10:00    United Kingdom   CBI retail sales volume balance    May            30          36           16

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was still boosted by the better-than-expected U.S. economic data, published on Tuesday. U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.8% in April, after a 2.9% gain in March. The U.S. consumer confidence index climbed to 83.0 in May, from 81.7 in April.

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar after the release of the disappointing economic data in the Eurozone. The number of people unemployed in Germany surged by 24,000 this month to 2.905 million. That was the largest increase in five years in May. Analysts had expected a decline by 14,000.

The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. This figure was expected by analysts.

Consumer spending in France fell 0.3% in April, after a 0.4% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.5 increase. On a yearly basis, consumer spending in France dropped 0.5% in April, after a 1.2% fall in March.

Adjusted M3 money supply in the Eurozone climbed 0.8% in April, after a 1.1% increase in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.2% gain.

Private loans in the Eurozone declined 1.8% in April (March: -2.2%), beating expectations of a 2.1% fall.

Expectations for further stimulus measures by the European Central Bank continued to weigh on the euro.

The British pound hits 2.5-week lows against the U.S. dollar due to the weaker-than-expected U.K. retail sale volumes. The Confederation of British Industry released the U.K. retail sale volumes on Wednesday. The U.K. retail sale volumes dropped unexpectedly in May. The CBI retail sales volume balance was +16 in May, from +30 in April. It means that retail sales volume climbed in May from last year.

The Swiss franc traded lower against the U.S. dollar. Switzerland's gross domestic product climbed 0.5% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +0.2%), meeting analysts’ expectations.

On a yearly basis, Switzerland's gross domestic product rose 2.0% in the first quarter (Q4 2013: +1.7%), missing analysts’ expectations of a 2.1% gain.

EUR/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.3604

GBP/USD: the currency pair dropped to $1.6740

USD/JPY: the currency pair traded mixed

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

23:50   Japan                   Retail sales, y/y                          April      +11.0%  -3.2%

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3800, $1.3775, $1.3735, $1.3685/90

Bids $1.3600, $1.3550, $1.3525/20, $1.3500

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6950, $1.6930/35, $1.6900, $1.6885, $1.6840

Bids $1.6730, $1.6700, $1.6660, $1.6600

AUD/USD

Offers $0.9370, $0.9335, $0.9300, $0.9280

Bids $0.9200, $0.9150, $0.9100

EUR/JPY

Offers Y140.00, Y139.75/80, Y139.50

Bids Y138.50, Y138.20, Y138.00, Y137.50

USD/JPY

Offers Y103.00, Y102.40, Y102.15

Bids Y101.65/58, Y101.05/00, Y100.80

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8200, stg0.8170, stg0.8140

Bids stg0.8080, stg0.8050, stg0.8035/30, stg0.8005/000

The Confederation of British Industry released the U.K. retail sale volumes. The U.K. retail sale volumes dropped unexpectedly in May. The CBI retail sales volume balance was +16 in May, from +30 in April. It means that retail sales volume climbed in May from last year.

Stock indices traded little changed after the release of disappointing economic data in the Eurozone.

The number of people unemployed in Germany surged by 24,000 this month to 2.905 million. That was the largest increase in five years in May. Analysts had expected a decline by 14,000.

The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%. This figure was expected by analysts.

Consumer spending in France fell 0.3% in April, after a 0.4% gain in March. Analysts had expected a 0.5 increase. On a yearly basis, consumer spending in France dropped 0.5% in April, after a 1.2% fall in March.

Adjusted M3 money supply in the Eurozone climbed 0.8% in April, after a 1.1% increase in March. Analysts had forecasted a 1.2% gain.

Private loans in the Eurozone declined 1.8% in April (March: -2.2%), beating expectations of a 2.1% fall.

Osram Licht AG shares dropped 7.4% after lowering its sales forecast for the full year.

Elekta AB shares declined 9.0% after reporting weaker-than-expected quarter earnings.

Current figures:

Name                                   Price                                    Change                 Change %

FTSE 100                             6,849.76                              +4.82                      +0.07%

DAX                                     9,949.72                               +8.90                      +0.09%

CAC 40                                4,533.62                               +3.87                      +0.09%

Monetary policies of central banks have an impact on the dynamics of exchange rates. Therefore, information about these regulatory bodies is required for a successful trade on the financial markets.

Our new website section (Central banks) provides information on the eight major central banks, their monetary policies and their outlooks.

We hope this website section will help you to make a better decision.

TeleTrade continues to enhance and expand the website section “Market Overview” to make it as convenient as possible for our clients. Stay tuned for updates!

EUR/USD $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3620-25, $1.3650, $1.3660-70, $1.3700

USD/JPY Y101.00, Y101.10-20, Y102.00, Y102.40

EUR/JPY Y138.45

EUR/GBP stg0.8085, stg0.8100, stg0.8105

AUD/USD $0.9200, $0.9250

NZD/USD $0.8570, $0.8600

USD/CAD C$1.0900, C$1.0975

Asian stock indices increased due to strong U.S. economic data, following the U.S. stock indices. U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.8% in April, after a 2.9% gain in March. The U.S. consumer confidence index climbed to 83.0 in May, from 81.7 in April.

Indexes on the close:

Nikkei 225                       14,670.95              +34.43        +0.24%

Hang Seng                       23,080.03            +135.73         +0.59%

Shanghai Composite        2,050.23              +15.66         +0.77%

Economic calendar (GMT0):

00:00    Japan                  BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks                                                            

00:30    Australia              Leading Index                            March       0.0%                    -0.5%

01:00    New Zealand       ANZ Business Confidence            May          64.8                      53.5

01:30    Australia              Construction Work Done           Quarter I  -1.1%     -0.3%     +0.3%

05:45    Switzerland          Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)  Quarter I  +0.2%   +0.5%    +0.5%

05:45    Switzerland          Gross Domestic Product (YoY)   Quarter I   +1.7%   +2.1%   +2.0%

06:00    Switzerland          UBS Consumption Indicator        April          1.84                      1.72

06:45    France                 Consumer spending                   April         +0.4%   +0.5%     -0.3%

06:45    France                 Consumer spending, y/y            April         -1.2%                    -0.5%

07:55    Germany             Unemployment Change             May           -25        -14            24

07:55    Germany             Unemployment Rate s.a.            May           6.7%     6.7%      6.7%

08:00    Eurozone             M3 money supply, adjusted y/y April         +1.1%  +1.2%    +0.8%

08:00    Eurozone             Private Loans, Y/Y                      April         -2.2%     -2.1%    -1.8% 

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies. The U.S. currency was still boosted by the better-than-expected U.S. economic data, published on Tuesday. U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.8% in April, after a 2.9% gain in March. The U.S. consumer confidence index climbed to 83.0 in May, from 81.7 in April.

The New Zealand dollar hits 2.5-month lows against the U.S due to the weaker-than-expected New Zealand’s economic data. The ANZ business confidence index for New Zealand dropped to 53.5 in Mai, from 64.8 in April.

The Australian dollar traded higher against the U.S. dollar, but later lost all its gains. Construction work done in Australia increased 0.3% in the first quarter, from a 1.1% decline in the fourth quarter of 2013. The fourth quarter of 2013 figure was revised down to a 1.1% fall from a 1% decrease. Analysts had expected a 0.3% fall.

Australia’s April leading index from Westpac Bank and the Melbourne Institute fell 0.5% to a score of 98.0. That was the weakest reading since late 2011.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the U.S. dollar after comments from the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda. He said that the monetary easing is possible even with interest rates at around zero percent.

EUR/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

GBP/USD: the currency pair traded mixed

USD/JPY: the currency pair declined to Y101.90

NZD/USD: the currency pair dropped to $0.8534

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

10:00    United Kingdom   CBI retail sales volume balance   May         30          36          

23:50   Japan                   Retail sales, y/y                          April      +11.0%  -3.2%

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3776 (3400)

$1.3742 (4343)

$1.3690 (580)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.3631

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3592 (6261)

$1.3571 (3654)

$1.3544 (4994)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 56914 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3850 (6036);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 75046 contracts, with the maximum number of contractswith strike price $1,3500 (6299);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.32 versus 1.30 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 27

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.7100 (1854)

$1.7001 (2676)

$1.6902 (2019)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.6810

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.6698 (2570)

$1.6599 (1889)

$1.6500 (969)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date June, 6 is 23599 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,7000 (2676);

- Overall open interest on the PUT optionswith the expiration date June, 6 is 26040 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,6700 (2570);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.10 versus 1.07 from the previous trading day according to data from May, 27

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.