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Michael Wang of CitiFX says AUD/USD remains underpinned by a variety of factors. First, there is talk of a UK bank buying an Australian financial institution. Second, "insurance companies continued to buy AUD against GBP and CHF to fulfill claims as the residual effect of the Queensland flood." In addition, Chinese stocks have risen 8 of the last 9 trading days and are nearing the year's highs.

Dow +21.04 at 12241.63, Nasdaq +1.36 at 2744.42, S&P +1.57 at 1315.37

GSI Commerce (GSIC 28.99, +9.61) is a top performer today, thanks to the decision by eBay (EBAY 30.80, -0.90) to buy the e-commerce and interactive marketing service provider for $29.25 per share. The offer represents a rich premium of about 50% over the sub-$20 price that the stock settled with this past Friday. The offer's total consideration stands at approximately $2.4 billion. eBay announced that the deal is expected to close in the third quarter and that it will be financed with both cash and debt.

EUR/USD holds under $1.4100

EUR/USD holds $1.4093 area as the euro unable to retain its foothold above $1.4100 area. Earlier rate printed session high on $1.4116. Bids remains on $1.4080 as longs look to buy the dip but chatter suggesting some intra-day stops below $1.4070.

FED: Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart says 2% infl is obtainable and currently higher infl reflects food and energy.
Dow +22.48 at 12243.07, Nasdaq +2.46 at 2745.52, S&P +2.23 at 1316.03

The absence of new trading catalysts has left stocks slog along for most of the session. Still, the tone of trade remains generally positive as most of the major sectors remain in the green.
Telecom has put together the strongest gain of any major sector. As a group telecom plays are up a 1.5%, which is triple the gain of the next best performing sector (energy, +0.5%). Nokia (NOK 8.68, +0.33) is an especially strong performer following an upgrade by analysts at Goldman Sachs.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded Marriott (MAR 35.18, -2.48), which dropped to a multi-month low earlier today. Although it has bounced up from that low, the stock is still down 5%.

US focus: Yen declines on signs of economic strength and radiation concern at plant

The yen fell against all its major counterparts as radiation levels that can prove fatal were detected at a damaged nuclear power plant in Japan amid signs the global economic recovery is gaining momentum elsewhere.
“Dollar-yen is all about what’s happening with this power plant right now,” said Greg Salvaggio at Tempus Consulting Inc. “The claim numbers are pretty much set and insurance companies know what they’re going to have to pay so what’s happening now is there significantly growing concern on the Japanese government’s inability to contain this situation.”
The euro erased losses against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation rates that stick above 2% would be a concern.
“Our definition of price stability is below 2 percent, close to 2 percent,” Trichet said. “Differences must be a worry because they can become persistent.”
Trichet, told the European Parliament March 21 he has “nothing to add” to his March 3 remarks when he said policy makers may raise the benchmark rate from a record low of 1 percent at their next meeting April 7.
Markets reacted to Trichet’s “hawkish” comments, said Andrew Busch, a global currency strategist at Bank of Montreal in Chicago.
The dollar earlier advanced after Federal Reserve official James Bullard said the central bank may consider scaling back its monetary stimulus.
“The economy is looking pretty good,” Bullard told. “It is still reasonable to review QE2 in the coming meetings, especially this April meeting, and see if we want to decide to finish the program or to stop a little bit short,” he said, referring to the second round of so-called quantitative easing, due to end in June.
“If you take the Fed speak, coupled with positive data surprises, that could certainly support yields and in turn support the dollar against the yen or the euro,” said Mark McCormick, a currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecast in February as incomes climbed, helping to bolster the expansion in the world’s largest economy. Purchases increased 0.7%, the most since October, after advancing 0.3% the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed today.
Canada’s currency was the best performer against the dollar as crude oil traded near a two-week high amid concern renewed violence in Libya may further disrupt supplies.
The franc has surged 8 percent in the past year.
“Given the nuclear situation right now, I think yen as a safe haven has disintegrated and Swiss franc as the global safe haven is a much more probable trade right now,” said Tempus’s Salvaggio.

Techs on USD/JPY
Resistance 3:Y83.30            
Resistance 2:Y82.50            
Resistance 1:Y82.00            
Current price: Y81.67
Support 1:Y81.40               
Support 2:Y80.70            
Support 3:Y79.80              
Comments: Rate holds within the range with resistance is around Y82.00 (Mar 15 high). Above gains may extend to Y82.50 (Mar 14 high). Support is near session low on Y81.40 with a break lower opens the way to Y80.70 (Mar 23 lows).


Techs on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.9370
Resistance 2: Chf0.9320               
Resistance 1: Chf0.9250               
Current price: Chf0.9176
Support 1: Chf0.9150                
Support 2: Chf0.9110                 
Support 3: Chf0.9020                 
Comments: Dollar tries to recover after declining to session lows around Chf0.9150 (minor support). Below losses may widen to Chf0.9110 (channel line from Mar 23). Stronger support is near channel line from Mar 16 on Chf0.9020. Resistance comes at Chf0.9250 (channel line). Above resistance comes at Chf0.9320 (Mar 14 high). Neat band of resistance is around Mar 09 on Chf0.9370.
Techs on GBP/USD
Resistance 3:$1.6265         
Resistance 2:$1.6140       
Resistance 1:$1.6040         

Current price: $1.6033

Support 1: $1.5975          
Support 2: $1.5820          
Support 3: $1.5750         
Comments: Rate recovers, heading for a strong resistance at $1.6040 (23.6% Fibo of $1.6400 - $1.5930). Above the resistance comes at $1.6140 (Mar 25 high) and then - to $1.6265/70 (Mar 24 high). Support comes at $1.5975 (Mar 11, 15 and 17 lows). Below rate may decline to $1.5820 (Jan 31 lows)


Techs on EUR/USD
Resistance 3:$1.4250            
Resistance 2:$1.4190             
Resistance 1:$1.4120
Current ptice: $1.4107
Support 1: $1.4020                    
Support 2: $1.3930                    
Support 3: $1.3860                   
Comments: Rate continues to holds above $1.4100 with minor resistance is around $1.4120. Further rise may gain to Mar 25 highs at $1.4190. Stronger resistance comes around $1.4250 (Mar 22 high). Support is near $1.4020 (session high). Below losses may widen to $1.3930 (support line from Feb 14)


EUR/USD holds above $1.4100

EUR/USD trades to $1.4112 with recent demand seen from model-driven accounts. Offers and stops around $1.4110/15 were mentioned before, but traders suggesting euro may have legs to $1.4130 or so before running out of steam.

ECB, Trichet: hopes EMU rate spreads gradually decline with new policies.
Dow +34.43 at 12255.05, Nasdaq +4.65 at 2747.71, S&P +3.56 at 1317.36

The major equity averages are up modestly this morning. The underlying bid remains broad based as many of the market's major sectors stage gains.
Telecom is in the strongest shape of any major sector. It currently sports a 0.9% gain, which has been led by integrated plays Verizon (VZ 37.59, +0.30) and AT&T (T 29.17, +0.32).
Energy stocks are having some difficulty pushing up from the neutral line into positive territory, though. The sector's relative weakness comes as oil prices slide 1.5% to $103.80 per barrel.

Support at $1409.90 has held so far with the metal turning back higher from $1410.30 to $1416.10. Spot currently trading around $1415.40
Pierpont Securities says Q1 real growth is running +2.8% and the offset may be higher Q2 growth.

"Normally, we might have seen a more vigorous rebound in real spending in February and March, but the surge in energy prices sapped household purchasing power. With energy prices seemingly stable now (barring another new shock in the Middle East), the path is clearer for a substantial acceleration in real spending in Q2."

Before the bell: Stocks set to continue rebound

U.S. stocks were set for a solid open Monday, as investors awaited key economic data and continue to focus on global developments.

Stocks managed to head higher last week, as investors turned their attention to strong corporate earnings and shrugged off geopolitical concerns. The Dow gained more than 3%, the S&P 500 gained 2.7% and the Nasdaq surged 3.7%.
Economy: The Commerce Department reported that spending by individuals increased 0.7% in February, topping a forecasted 0.5% rise. Personal incomes rose 0.3% in the month, matching expectations.
Additionally, the National Association of Realtors will issue its January pending home sales report at 14:00 GMT. Pending home sales are expected to increase 0.3%.
World markets:

Oil for May delivery slipped 20 cents to $105.40 a barrel.
Gold futures for April delivery fell $10.60 to $1,415.60 an ounce.
The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.44% from 3.40% late Friday.

EUR/USD got support near $1.4020

Sees slight lift to $1.4045 area now amid muted flows, the euro finding a base near $1.4020 area and thus reinforcing the earlier chatter of sovereign demand in that area. Offers eyed at a distant $1.4090/00. $1.4000  remains a pivot point in the pair, being the midpoint of the March range in the euro.

US: Feb Personal Income +0.3%, PCE +0.7%), PCE core prices +0.2% for +0.9% YOY
European session:

The dollar strengthened before data forecast to show growing U.S. consumer spending after Federal Reserve official James Bullard said the central bank may scale back its monetary stimulus.
“The economy is looking pretty good,” Bullard told reporters in Marseille, France. “It is still reasonable to review QE2 in the coming meetings, especially this April meeting, and see if we want to decide to finish the program or to stop a little bit short,” he said, referring to the second round of so-called quantitative easing, due to end in June.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans both speak today.

The yen weakened versus most of its major counterparts on signs the global recovery is gaining momentum, boosting appetite for higher-yielding investments. Policy makers should review whether to curtail plans to buy $600 billion in Treasuries because of strong economic data, St. Louis Fed President Bullard said on March 26. The euro depreciated for a second day against the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition was defeated in a regional election. Australia’s dollar advanced to its highest level since 1983.
“Commentators from the Fed have been hawkish,” said Hans- Guenter Redeker, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. Prospects for “higher U.S. rates and yields” are supporting the dollar, he said.

EUR/USD: traded within $1.4020-$1.4080 range.
GBP/USD: got support at $1.5935, before bounced back to $1.5990.
USD/JPY: peaked at Y81.85, before stabelized within Y81.85/60.

US events start at 1230GMT, when personal income is expected to rise 0.4% in February, as payrolls posted a solid increase, but hourly earnings were flat and the average workweek was unchanged from January. PCE is forecast to rise 0.6%, as retail sales were up 1.0% and nonauto retail sales rose 0.7%. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2%. US data continues at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods  Index, followed at 1400GMT by Pending Home Sales for February.

AUD/USD: under pressure

Slippage was extended to $1.0270 after the earlier fresh post float high of $1.0314 following the flushing of a reported barrier at $1.0300. Talk of plenty of supply now above $1.0300, but option related demand continues to be attracted to dips with further gains possible. Support eyed at $1.0250, more on approach to the session low $1.0235.

Portugal 10-year spread extends widening and now 4bps wider vs Bunds at +455bps
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4050, $1.4200
USD/JPY Y81.00
GBP/USD $1.6030
AUD/USD $1.0200, $1.0100, $1.0000
GBP/AUD A$1.6040

BOE SENTANCE: Repeats rate hike should not be put off
FTSE +0.28% 5,917, CAC +0.34% 3,986, DAX +0.29% 6,966
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.4200 
USD/JPY Y81.00
GBP/USD $1.6030
AUD/USD  $1.0200, $1.0100, $1.0000

Asian session: The yen fell

The yen fell against the dollar and the euro before reports this week forecast to show consumer spending increased in the U.S. and France, sapping demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
The yen weakened versus all of its 16 major counterparts as signs the global economic recovery is gaining momentum boosted appetite for riskier investments. 
The euro weakened for a second day against the dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition was defeated in its southwestern heartland, clouding the political outlook for Europe’s biggest economy.
Japan’s currency declined to 81.80 per dollar as of 6:40 a.m. in London, the weakest level since March 18, from 81.34 in New York on March 25. The yen dropped to 114.98 per euro from 114.59. The euro slipped to $1.4055 from $1.4088, after reaching $1.4021, the least since March 18.
Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.5 percent in February, after increasing 0.2 percent in January, a survey of economists showed before today’s report. Personal spending in France climbed 0.5 percent in February following a 0.5 percent decrease the prior month, according to a separate survey before tomorrow’s report.
Interest-rate futures on the Chicago Board of Trade on March 25 showed a 40 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark rate by December, up from 35 percent a day earlier. The rate has been at a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.
The Dollar Index gained for a second day on speculation that Fed officials will signal today that the central bank will move closer to withdrawing emergency monetary stimulus.

EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,4020-$ 1,4070.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6000-$ 1,6020.
USD/JPY: the pair shown high in the field of Y81,85.

US events start at 1230GMT, when personal income is expected to rise 0.4% in February, as payrolls posted a solid increase, but hourly earnings were flat and the average workweek was unchanged from January. PCE is forecast to rise 0.6%, as retail sales were up 1.0% and nonauto retail sales rose 0.7%. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2%. US data continues at 1330GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods  Index, followed at 1400GMT by Pending Home Sales for February.

Stocks: Weekly review

Shares rose for a fourth day this week on Friday amid renewed optimism about the global economic recovery and strong corporate earnings.
For this holiday-shortened week, the Topix rose 3.3 percent, the most since July, and the Nikkei 225 increased 3.6 percent.
The Nikkei 225 plunged 10 percent last week on concern damage from the quake would hurt the world’s third-largest economy, and the yen gained to a post-World War II high against the dollar.
In Seoul, chipmakers advanced on foreign buying after recent losses, helping the Kospi rise 0.9 per cent, while in Sydney banks and resource stocks gained ground with Woodside Petroleum 2.5 per cent firmer on speculation about Royal Dutch Shell’s 24 per cent stake in the group. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9 per cent, its sixth consecutive gain.
In Hong Kong, robust bank earnings pushed the Hang Seng up 1.1 per cent. Bank of China jumped 2.6 per cent after reporting a 29 per cent rise in 2010 net profit. Financials were also one of the main drivers behind a 1.1 per cent advance for the Shanghai Composite. India’s Sensex has jumped 2.5 per cent to a two-month high. Buyers returned after the index heavily lagged behind the global market since the start of the year on inflation concerns.

European equities finished a week of strong trading positively, as investors’ bullishness on economic growth overcame concerns about Japan and Libya.
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 3.3 per cent to 1,124.65 over the week, including a 0.1 per cent gain on Friday.
Cyclical stocks performed well with the FTSE Eurofirst construction and materials index rising 5.1 per cent to 1,525.38 over the five days and the general industry sub-index up 3.8 per cent to 2,667.67.
Carmakers had a volatile week, gaining ground as they were lifted by increasing optimism about growth but damped by concerns that the Japanese crisis would disrupt their supply chains.
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 auto and parts sub-index gained 4.7 per cent to 1,137.14 during the week. In Germany, Daimler rose 6.7 per cent to €49 and BMW was up 3.9 per cent to €57.46.
Banks closed the week ahead as eurozone ministers continued to make progress on structuring a bail-out mechanism acceptable to Germany, as well as nations with weaker credit, including Spain and Italy.
The FTSE Eurofirst 300 banking sub-index gained 2.5 per cent to 552.13 for the week, though fell 0.5 per cent in Friday trading. Deutsche Bank analysts found that sentiment towards financial stocks in Europe had improved strongly throughout February – investors are the least underweight in financials for two years.
For the week, Commerzbank in Germany gained 1.2 per cent to €5.76 while Banco Santander in Spain gained 2.7 per cent per cent to €8.52.
The Lisbon equity market proved a counterpoint to the country’s debt markets as stocks closed the week down only slightly, even as a political crisis and the spectre of a bail-out drove the cost of Portugal’s short-term borrowing to euro-era highs.
The main Portuguese index closed down 0.1 per cent at 7,854.18 for the week. Nuno Serafim, an analyst with IG Markets in Lisbon, said that the withdrawal of investors from the market was being tempered by the fact that they had largely priced in the chances of the bail-out.
Yet Portugal’s banks dragged down the market on Friday as their liquidity problems were seen to deepen after rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the nation’s debt.
Espirito Santo, Portugal’s biggest bank by market capitalisation, fell 1.9 per cent to €3.07 and Banco BPI fell 0.3 per cent to €1.30.
Also on Friday, Edison, the energy group, jumped 4.5 per cent to €0.78 after the Italian media reported that it was discussing a plan with Enel, the Italian utility, under which Enel would buy some assets from Edison if it were unable to resolve restructuring talks with its largest shareholders.
Enel retreated 0.8 per cent to €4.27.

Wall Street began the week in recovery mode. The first three days of last week had seen sharp losses on the S&P after the disaster in Japan. But the index then began to recover as worries about the financial impact of the disaster on US companies subsided and the 1.5 per cent gains on Monday were a continuation of that rebound recovery. By Tuesday, the index was back to where it had been before the earthquake hit.
The markets paused for breath midweek before allowing optimism to gain sway. As the week went on, traders turned their attention away from global pressures and focused more on the strengthening domestic economy.
On Thursday data showed that the number of people in the US taking jobless benefits had fallen by 5,000 to 382,000 the previous week. The four-week average of claims fell to its lowest point since July 2008.
The S&P 500 has put on 1.4 per cent since the disaster in Japan, though it is still 2.2 per cent lower than before the eruption of conflict in north Africa and the Middle East in the middle of February. The Vix index, a measure of market volatility, was down 27.1 per cent over the week but was still up 8.5 per cent since before the tensions surfaced in the Middle East
Among those stocks in focus over the past five days was AT&T, which announced it was buying T-Mobile USA from Deutsche Telekom for $39bn in a deal that would create the largest wireless carrier in the US. The stock was up 3.3 per cent over the week to $28.85.
Its rival Sprint Nextel, which had also been in talks with Deutsche Telekom to merge with T-Mobile, tumbled 7.1 per cent to $4.69 over the week and was the worst performing stock on the S&P over the period. Overall, the telecoms sector added 2.2 per cent.
Technology stocks saw gains after strong earnings results from a number of key industry players.
Red Hat, the developer of open source software, was up 18.5 per cent to $46.34 while Micron Technology, the chipmaker, added 14.7 per cent to $11.55 over the week. Oracle was up 6.1 per cent to $32.64.
Bank of America was in focus following news that the Federal Reserve had “objected” to its planned dividend increase. The stock was down 4.5 per cent to $13.34 over the week. The sector, however, was up 0.8 per cent over the week.

Forex: Weekly review

The euro rose to a four-and-a-half-month high against the dollar this week, shrugging off worries over the fiscal health of the eurozone’s peripheral countries.
The single currency remained resilient in spite of two Portuguese government debt downgrades and the resignation of José Sócrates, Portuguese prime minister, after he failed to get parliamentary approval for his plans to rein in the country’s fiscal deficit.
Analysts said expectations of monetary tightening from the European Central Bank next month were continuing to support the euro with traders noting buying interest from Asian reserve managers on any dip in the single currency.
In addition, they said a potential bail-out of Portugal by its eurozone partners had already been priced in by investors.
The euro, which hit an 18-week peak of $1.4249 against the dollar on Tuesday, eased just 0.2 per cent to $1.4147 over the week.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar hit a 29-year high against the US dollar, rising 3.2 per cent to $1.0280 as recovering risk appetite fuelled demand for the commodity-linked currency. This means that it has more than recovered all of its sharp losses after the earthquake and resulting nuclear crisis in Japan this month, which raised fears over global growth.
Analysts said last week’s co-ordinated action from major central banks to weaken the yen had improved investor sentiment, helping to allay fears that a disorderly rise in the currency would destabilise not just Japan’s economy and financial system, but that of the whole world.
Other commodity-linked currencies advanced with the New Zealand dollar up 3.5 per cent to $0.7564 against the dollar on the week and the Canadian dollar 0.9 per cent higher at C$0.9757.
The yen continued to weaken after last week’s intervention, falling 0.6 per cent to Y81.10 against the dollar on the week.
The dollar advanced elsewhere, climbing 1 per cent to $1.6072 against the pound over the week and rising 1.6 per cent to SFr0.9149 against the Swiss franc.

Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.30 (Mar 11 high) 
Resistance 2:Y82.50 (Mar 14 high) 
Resistance 1:Y82.00 (Mar 15 high) 
Current price: Y81.74
Support 1:Y81.40 (session low)    
Support 2:Y80.70 (Mar 23 low)    
Support 3:Y79.80 (Mar 17 high)    
Comments: the pair become stronger. The nearest resistance - Y82.00. Above growth is possible to Y82.50. The nearest support - Y81,40. Below losses are possible to Y80.70. 

Tech on USD/CHF

Resistance 3: Chf0.9320 (Mar 14 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9250 (Mar 15 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9230 (session high)
Current price: Chf0.9213
Support 1: Chf0.9190 (session low)
Support 2: Chf0.9110 (support line from Mar 23)
Support 3: Chf0.9020 (support line from Mar 16)
Comments: the pair bargains above mark Chf0,9200. The nearest support - Chf0.9190. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9110. The nearest resistance - Chf0.9230. Above is located Chf0.9250.

Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6265 (Mar 24 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.6140 (Mar 25 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.6020 (session high)
Current price: $1.6016
Support 1 : $1.5975 (Mar 11, 15 and 17 low)
Support 2 : $1.5820 (Jan 31 low)
Support 3 : $1.5750 (Jan 25 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the low reached on Friday. The nearest support $1.5975. Below is possible testings of around $1.5820. The nearest resistance $1.6020. Above growth is possible to $1.6140. 

Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.4250 (Mar 22 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.4190 (Mar 25 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.4070 (session high)
Current price: $1.4055
Support 1 : $1.4020 (session low)
Support 2 : $1.3930 (line of support from Feb 14)
Support 3 : $1.3860 (Mar 15-17 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1.4050. The nearest support $1,4020. Below losses are possible to $1.3930. The nearest resistance - $1.4070. Above growth is possible to $1,4190. 

Schedule for today, Monday, Mar 28 2011:

12:30 USA Personal income (February) 0.3% 1.0%
12:30 USA Personal spending (February) 0.5% 0.2%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (February) 0.2% 0.1%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (February) Y/Y - 0.8%
23:30 Japan Unemployment (February) 4.9% 4.9%
23:30 Japan Household spending (February) real Y/Y -0.2% -1.0%
23:50 Japan Retail sales (February) Y/Y -0.4% 0.1

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