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28.01.2011
20:18
Dow -156.93 at 11832.90, Nasdaq -63.61 at 2691.67, S&P -20.11 at 1279.43
Selling has taken its toll on the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index, which is currently down 2.1%. More than 90% of the members in the Russell 2000 are in the red. Despite such pronounce weakness this session, small caps still aren't at their weekly lows, which were set Tuesday in the wake of a pull back from the three-year high that the Russell 2000 set in the previous week. The pullback by the Russell 2000 and the subsequent failure to rebound to new highs alongside broader market measures like the S&P 500 could suggest that participants have started to rotate out of riskier equity issues.
19:57
US OUTLOOK: Interesting to see these comments from Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin on today's data:

 "Consumers have become increasingly concerned with rising food and fuel prices, and have noticed that fewer and smaller discounts are now available at stores and vehicle dealerships. If rising global demand puts continued upward pressure on prices, inflation is likely to be the source of considerable discontent among consumers. Given that consumers do not anticipate renewed wage growth, they are likely to again engage in selective spending cutbacks. Consumers are now less able to smooth consumption by using credit cards since fewer households now have credit cards and those that have them are likely to have lower credit limits."

18:59
US OUTLOOK: Nomura says US may have "an employability problem" because "the composition of job cuts supports our view that structural unemployment has risen" - mainly in mfg and construction.
They hope for an improved Jan payroll number, est +150k jobs but note payrolls are now "7.2 million persons lower than in December 2007, when the recession started."
18:14
US OUTLOOK: Ests for Jan payrolls are coming in +150k to +170k
17:24
American focus: the risk is off

The dollar and Swiss franc advanced against the euro as a day of clashes in Egypt between police and protesters spurred demand for the safety of the currencies.

Egypt’s pound traded at almost a six-year low against the greenback as Fitch Ratings revised the Mideast nation’s outlook to negative and its dollar bond yields rose to record highs. Israel’s shekel was the biggest loser versus the dollar among Mideast currencies.

“This seems like classic risk aversion triggered by geopolitical concern,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, head of Americas Group of 10 currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “It’s fueling oil prices higher, gold higher and the dollar higher. You’re seeing the euro drop, and euro-Swiss has regained its safe-haven status.”

Fitch lowered the outlook on Egypt’s debt rating to “negative” from “stable,” saying the protests increase the “uncertainty” over political and economic prospects.

Egyptian police fired tear gas as thousands of demonstrators pushed into Cairo’s Tahrir Square and trucks carrying riot police were pelted with rocks. Authorities restricted Internet and mobile-phone access and detained senior leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, the main opposition group.

17:08
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83.90            
Resistance 2:Y83.20            
Resistance 1:Y82.50
Current price: Y82.01
Support 1:Y81.80           

Support 2:Y81.00          

Support 3:Y81.80            

Comments: Rate remains under pressure, heading for support at Jan 19 lows on Y81.80. Stronger support is at Jan 03 lows at Y81.00/95 and then - at Y81.60. Minor resistance comes at Y82.50, with stronger - at Y83.20 (yesterday's high). Above rise may extend to Y83.90 (Dec 21 high).
16:55
Tech on USD/CHF
Resistance 3: Chf0.9620
Resistance 2: Chf0.9520
Resistance 1: Chf0.9480
Current price: Chf0.9420
Support 1: Chf0.9380
Support 2: Chf0.9300
Support 3: Chf0.9200

Comments: No major changes in the pair. The nearest support Chf0,9380 (Jan 27 low). Below losses may extend to Chf0.9300 (Dec 31 low). The nearest resistance Chf0,9480 (Jan 07 high). Above resistance is at Chf0.9520 (Jan 25 high).


16:48
Techs on GBP/USD

Resistance 3:$1.6060         
Resistance 2:$1.5960
Resistance 1:$1.5880 
Current price: $1.5833
Support 1: $1.5830

Support 2: $1.5750

Support 3: $1.5650

Comments: Rate probes key support at $1.5830 (channel line from Jan 07). Break under widen losses to $1.5750 (Jan 25 lows). Further support is at $1.5650 (61.8% Fibo of $1.5400 - $1.6065). Resistance is around $1.5880, then - at $1.5960 (daily high). Above rate may be capped by $1.606 (Jan 18 high).



16:35
Techs on EUR/USD

Resistance 3:$1.3820            
Resistance 2:$1.3790            
Resistance 1:$1.3720

Current price: $1.3622
Support 1: $1.3600
Support 2: $1.3540              

Support 3: $1.3360

Comments: Rate fell sharply after triggering some stops. Now support comes at $1.3600 with a break under will widen losses to $1.3540 (Jan 24 lows). Stronger support is near $1.3360 (38.2% Fibo of $1.1870 - $1.4280). Strong resistance is at earlier broken channel line from Jan 11 at $1.3720. Above rate may recover to Nov 22 highs on $1.3790 and then - to Nov 11 highs on $1.3820.
16:15
GOLD:

Currently gold holds at $1326.25/oz, after trading in a $1308.70 to $1326.65 range. Gold closed around $1311 Thursday that is below key support at $1315 (Oct 2010 lows). Overnight, gold fell briefly below $1310 but has sinced bounced back, along with other commodities. At Friday's low, gold was off 8.5% from the life-time high of $1430.95 posted Dec 7.

15:56
ECB, Caruana: Emerging market monetary policies risk lagging inflation
  • Major central banks will have to act fast when risks seen
  • Inflation expectations in advanced economies well-anchored
  • Advanced economies must watch out for 2nd-rd effects
  • Global growth to continue without renewed slump
  • Exchange rates must reflect fundamentals; must avoid fx volatility
  • If Spain continues with reforms, won't need support
15:55
ECB, Caruana: Emerging market monetary policies risk lagging inflation
  • Major central banks will have to act fast when risks seen
  • Inflation expectations in advanced economies well-anchored
  • Advanced economies must watch out for 2nd-rd effects
  • Global growth to continue without renewed slump
  • Exchange rates must reflect fundamentals; must avoid fx volatility
  • If Spain continues with reforms, won't need support
15:40
EUR/CHF weakens

EUR/CHF slides under Chf1.2900 now of hedge funds sales, some linking this to worries about developments in Egypt. Cross currently holds around Chf1.2880.

15:31
Barclays Capital on EGYPT

The market talks how to trade events in Egypt from a risk perspective.
Barclays Capital strategists note that while the demonstrations by activists (asking for an end to Pres Mubarak's 30-year reign) "appear leaderless at present" the movement may become more organized if Nobel Peace Price winner Mohammad El Baradei (ex-director general of IAEA) takes charge.
In terms of being a US ally, "Egypt is a key partner in regional counter-terrorism and peace keeping and is seen as an essential bulwark against Iranian expansion in the Middle East," they say.
With Pres Mubarak's health in question, "there is real concern that if Mubarak were to die suddenly, with the public mood so sour, the security situation could spiral out of control," the strategists say.
In addition, another sudden run-up in food prices, would likely exacerbate
the situation.

15:11
OIL: Trades higher, up $1.55 to $87.17.
14:56
US: Jan final Rtrs/U-Michigan consumer sentiment 74.1 vs 74.5 in Dec
14:51
DUE UP: at 14.55 GMT Jan final U-Mich consumer sentiment. Est 73.
14:50
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:
EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3645/50, $1.3750, $1.3865, $1.3900 
USD/JPY Y81.75, Y82.00, Y82.75, Y83.50, Y84.00
AUD/USD $0.9880, $0.9805, $1.0100
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3120
14:21
Before the bell: Stocks poised for modest gains after GDP

U.S. stocks were headed for modest gains Friday, as investors digested GDP data showing personal consumption spending ticked up to its highest level since 2006.
Stocks managed to log modest gains Thursday, pushing the Dow and S&P to their highest levels since the summer of 2008. The Dow ended 4 points higher at 11,989.83 - just shy of the 12,000 mark.

Stocks are widely expected to continue edging higher for the time being, as more earnings surprise on the upside and the Federal Reserve's bond-buying plan continues to stoke investor optimism. But any unexpected changes could tip the scales.
Economy: The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter, according to an advance reading on gross domestic product released Friday morning. That's up from 2.6% in the third quarter.
Though the figure missed economists' expectations for a slightly higher 3.5% rate, personal consumption spending rose to its highest level since 2006.
After the market opens, the University of Michigan will release its final report on consumer sentiment in January. Economists expect the index to rise to 73.2, up from 72.7 in the previous month.
Companies: Before the opening bell, Ford (F, Fortune 500) posted a fourth-quarter profit of $6.6 billion - its largest in 11 years. But shares of the automaker fell nearly 7% in pre-market trading.
Honeywell (HON, Fortune 500) posted an increase in earnings that met expectations, and raised its 2011 forecast. It also announced a deal to sell its automotive consumer products business for $950 million. Shares of the company edged 1% lower ahead of the market open.
Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) posted earnings that easily topped Wall Street estimates, sending shares of the company slightly higher in pre-market trading.
Just minutes before the market closed Thursday, Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) reported its second-quarter net income fell to $6.6 billion.
Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) also released quarterly results late Thursday, posting sales that topped Wall Street estimates.


14:11
EUR/USD holds tight

EUR/USD probes some light stops below $1.3690 but pair remains for now above $1.3677 area (European hours low). Area below $1.3670 still said a concern as bids and stops accumulate. Rate currently holds near $1.3702.

13:44
News reaction:

EUR/USD stalled shy of $1.3725 as GDP data came in slightly below expectations and pair easing lower now for $1.3700 trade. US yields rising a touch, should underpin greenback.

13:32
US: Q4 ECI +0.4%
13:31
US: Q4 GDP +3.2%
13:00
European session:

The yen rose against most of its major counterparts as a decline in Asian and European stocks boosted demand for assets perceived to be safer.
“There’s an element of risk aversion kicking in as we close the week; equities are looking a little fragile,” said Jeremy Stretch, executive director of foreign-exchange strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “If there is renewed uncertainty then the dollar, the yen and the Swiss franc will continue to be net beneficiaries.”
Japan’s yen fell to a two-week low against the dollar yesterday after Standard & Poor’s lowered the nation’s credit rating one step to AA-.
“The downgrade isn’t a major issue for the yen,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s largest lender. “Virtually all Japanese government bonds are held in Japan so foreigners don’t hold much. If they did, there would be more implications for the currency.”
The dollar stayed near a two-month low versus the euro before a U.S. report today forecast to show economic growth accelerated last quarter. The pound declined after U.K. data showed consumer confidence slid the most in almost two decades as Prime Minister David Cameron reasserted his commitment to eliminating Britain’s budget deficit. The euro trimmed its third weekly gain versus the dollar, the longest winning streak since October.
The U.S. economy probably grew at a 3.5% annual pace in the three months ended Dec. 31, up from a 2.6% rate in the previous quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy, increased at a 4% annual pace, the most since the last three months of 2006, a separate survey showed.

EUR/USD: traded within $1.3675-$1.3745 range.
GBP/USD: found the base around $1.5850. before shoved back above $1.5900. reaching $1.5960 (76.4% $1.5991/1.5853).
USD/JPY: triggered stops on the break below Y82.30, and eased back toward levels seen into Thursday's S&P downgrade announcement on Japan around Y82.11. Stronger support seen from around Y82.00 through to Y81.80, with stops mixed in between Y81.85/80.

 

US data starts at 1330GMT, when the advance estimate for fourth quarter GDP is for a 3.5% rate of growth, up sharply from the 2.6% gain in the previous quarter. The key factors are expected to be faster PCE growth, a rebound in residential fixed investment, and a narrower net export gap. These should be offset by falling inventories and government spending, and nearly flat non-residential fixed investment. The chain price index is forecast to rise 1.5% in the quarter, down from 2.1% in the previous quarter. At the same time, the Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.5% in the fourth quarter, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter. US data continues at 1455GMT when the Michigan 
Sentiment index is expected to be revised up slightly to 73.0 in January from the 72.7 preliminary reading, but the index would remain below the 74.5 final reading for December.
12:37
USD/JPY remains under pressure

Stops triggered on the break below Y82.60, wakes rate out of its lethargic morning range to take it down to extended corrective pullback lows of Y82.30. There was talk earlier of decent stops sub Y82.35. Next support seen at Y82.25, a move below here to take rate back toward levels seen into Thursday's S&P downgrade announcement on Japan around Y8213. Stronger support seen from around Y82.00 through to Y81.80, with stops mixed in between Y81.85/80.

12:18
GBP/USD back above $1.5900

Gets shoved back above $1.5900 as cross drops back below earlier lows at stg0.8620, with market seen positioned for end month demand, with cable pushing up to $1.5930. Asian high $1.5937, above here and offers seen between $1.5940/50. A break above to open a move toward $1.5958 (76.4% $1.5991/1.5853).

10:41
US GEITHNER: Won't hurt economy with deep cuts to spending.
  • Much more confidence growth sustainable;
  • Expect US to grow at reasonable rate;
  • US will benefit from emerging market growth;
  • US exports are gerowing rapidly;
  • Inflation not high level of concern on global level;
  • Weaker dollar link in emerging markets would help fight inflation;
  • Confident Europe can deal with problems;
  • EU debt problem weakened US confidfence;
  • Share confidence euro will survive;
  • Japan's main problem is growth, not debt;
  • Easier for US to bring debt to a sustainable level;
  • Spending will be cut gradually; won't harm growth
10:41
US GEITHNER: Won't hurt economy with deep cuts to spending.
  • Much more confidence growth sustainable;
  • Expect US to grow at reasonable rate;
  • US will benefit from emerging market growth;
  • US exports are gerowing rapidly;
  • Inflation not high level of concern on global level;
  • Weaker dollar link in emerging markets would help fight inflation;
  • Confident Europe can deal with problems;
  • EU debt problem weakened US confidfence;
  • Share confidence euro will survive;
  • Japan's main problem is growth, not debt;
  • Easier for US to bring debt to a sustainable level;
  • Spending will be cut gradually; won't harm growth
10:12
European equities retreated on Friday

European equities retreated on Friday, pressured by mining shares, with investors staying cautious ahead of U.S. gross domestic product data that is expected to set short-term market direction.

09:54
Option expiries for today's 1500GMT cut:
EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3645/50, $1.3750, $1.3865, $1.3900 
USD/JPY Y81.75, Y82.00, Y82.75, Y83.50, Y84.00
AUD/USD $0.9880, $0.9805, $1.0100
AUD/NZD NZ$1.3120
09:31
French FinMin Lagarde on raw materials: 'we had better watch out'
  • We should be concerned about inflation as a result of rising commodity prices;
  • Sees 2.0% French growth this year
09:30
French FinMin Lagarde on raw materials: 'we had better watch out'
  • We should be concerned about inflation as a result of rising commodity prices;
  • Sees 2.0% French growth this year
09:03
EMU Dec sa M3 growth 1.7% y/y
08:44
Asian session: yen and dollar strengthened

The yen and dollar strengthened against most of their major counterparts as a decline in Asian stocks boosted demand for safer assets.
Japan’s currency also advanced on speculation exporters bought the currency before month-end judging its losses after yesterday’s downgrade of the nation’s credit rating were excessive. 
The dollar rose from near a two-month low versus the euro before a U.S. report today forecast to show economic growth accelerated last quarter. 
The pound declined after a U.K. report showed consumer confidence slid the most in almost two decades.
The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the three months ended Dec. 31, up from a 2.6 percent rate in the previous quarter, according to a survey before the Commerce Department releases the data. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, increased at a 4 percent annual pace, the most since the last three months of 2006, according to the survey median.

EUR/USD: the pair decreased in around $1,3700.
GBP/USD: the pair decreased below a mark $1,5900.
USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y82,60.

US data starts at 1330GMT, when the advance estimate for fourth quarter GDP is for a 3.5% rate of growth, up sharply from the 2.6% gain in the previous quarter. The key factors are expected to be faster PCE growth, a rebound in residential fixed investment, and a narrower net export gap. These should be offset by falling inventories and government spending, and nearly flat non-residential fixed investment. The chain price index is forecast to rise 1.5% in the quarter, down from 2.1% in the previous quarter. At the same time, the Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.5% in the fourth quarter, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter. US data continues at 1455GMT when the Michigan 
Sentiment index is expected to be revised up slightly to 73.0 in January from the 72.7 preliminary reading, but the index would remain below the 74.5 final reading for December.

08:36
Stocks: Thursday's review

Japanese stocks rose, driving benchmark indexes to one-week highs, on the outlook for higher earnings and after the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained efforts to stimulate the world’s biggest economy.
Fanuc Corp., Japan’s largest maker of industrial robots, jumped 4.6 percent after saying profit increased. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., the country’s largest maker of heavy machinery, gained 4 percent after the Nikkei newspaper said earnings may exceed forecasts. Marubeni Corp., a trading company, rallied 4.3 percent after oil and metal prices increased.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.7 percent to 10,478.66 as of the close of trading in Tokyo. The broader Topix index gained 0.8 percent to 929.66, with more than twice as many advancing as declining. Both gauges climbed to their highest closing levels since Jan. 19.
The Topix has increased 3.4 percent this year and stocks in the index are valued at 16 times estimated earnings on average, near the highest level since August.

European stocks rose for a second day after the Federal Reserve maintained its stimulus plans, overshadowing the first downgrade of Japan’s credit rating by Standard & Poor’s in nine years.
Software AG jumped 7.3 percent after reporting profit that beat analysts’ estimates and saying it aims to grow large enough to join Germany’s benchmark DAX Index. Allianz SE, Europe’s biggest insurer, gained 3.8 percent. Novartis AG lost 2.4 percent after net income declined. Hennes & Mauritz AB sank 7.3 percent as results missed analysts’ estimates.
The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent to 282.88 at the 4:30 p.m. close in London. Equities advanced yesterday ahead of the policy announcement from the Fed on speculation the central bank would continue to support the recovery even as growth accelerates. The Stoxx 600 has climbed 2.6 percent this year amid better-than-forecast economic reports and speculation that European leaders will increase their efforts to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis.
U.S. stocks rose yesterday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 12,000 for the first time since June 2008, after the Fed left its benchmark interest rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it’s been since December 2008, and retained a pledge in place since March 2009 to keep it “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.”
U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses, a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index completed its fourth straight advance, as pending home sales and Qualcomm Inc.’s forecast beat projections, offsetting Japan’s credit downgrade and higher-than-estimated jobless claims.
Qualcomm rose 6 percent as the biggest  maker of mobile- phone chips benefited from more sales of devices that browse the Internet. Caterpillar Inc. added 1.5 percent, while Netflix Inc. surged 15 percent after profit topped projections. AT&T Inc. lost 3 percent as sales missed analysts’ estimates. Procter & Gamble Co. dropped the most in more than five months as its profit forecast fell short of some analysts’ projections.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,298.99 at 1:46 p.m. in New York after falling 0.2 percent earlier. The index gained 1.3 percent during the previous four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 12.30 points, or 0.1 percent, to 11,997.74.

08:04
Tech on USD/JPY

Resistance 3:Y83,90 (Dec 21 high)
Resistance 2:Y83,70 (resistance line from Dec 15)
Resistance 1:Y83,20 (resistance line from Jan 7)
Current price: Y82.67
Support 1:Y82.50 (session low)
Support 2:Y82.15 (support line from Jan 3)
Support 3:Y81.80 (Jan 19 low)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support - Y82,50. Below losses  are possible to Y82.15. The nearest resistance - Y83,20. Above growth is  possible to Y83.70. 

08:01
Tech on USD/CHF

 

Resistance 3: Chf0.9620 (Jan 24 high)
Resistance 2: Chf0.9520 (Jan 25 high)
Resistance 1: Chf0.9480 (Jan 7 high)
Current price: Chf0.9450
Support 1: Chf0.9380 (Jan 27 low)
Support 2: Chf0.9300 (Dec 31 low)
Support 3: Chf0.9200 (psychological mark)
Comments: essential changes hasn't occured. The nearest support Chf0,9380. Below loss may extend to Chf0.9300. The nearest resistance Chf0,9480. Above is located Chf0.9520. 

 

07:52
Tech on GBP/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.6060 (Jan 18 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.5980 (resistance line from Jan 18)
Resistance 1: $ 1.5940 (session high)
Current price: $1.5897
Support 1 : $1.5850 (session high)
Support 3 : $1.5785 (38,2 % FIBO $1,5340-$ 1,6060)
Support 3 : $1.5750 (Jan 25 low)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of $1,5900. The nearest support - $1,5850. Below decrease is possible to $1.5785. The nearest resistance - $1,5940. Above growth is possible  to $1,5980. 

07:41
Tech on EUR/USD

Resistance 3: $ 1.3820 (Nov 11 high)
Resistance 2: $ 1.3790 (Nov 22 high)
Resistance 1: $ 1.3760 (Jan 27 high)
Current price: $1.3714
Support 1 : $1.3690 (support line from Jan 18)
Support 2 : $1.3640 (Jan 26-27 low)
Support 3 : $1.3560 (МА (200) for Н1)
Comments: the pair bargains in the field of the reached high. The nearest support - $1,3690. Below decrease is possible to $1.3640. The nearest resistance - $1,3760. Above growth is possible to $1,3790. 

07:23
Schedule for today, Friday, Jan'28'2011:

09:00 EU(16) M3 money supply (December) adjusted Y/Y 2.0% 1.9%
09:00 EU(16) M3 money supply (3 months to December) adjusted Y/Y 1.5% 1.3%
13:30 USA GDP (Q4) advance Y/Y 3.6% 2.6%
13:30 USA PCE price index (Q4) advance - 0.8%
13:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q4) advance - 0.5%
13:30 USA Employment cost index (Q4) 0.4% 0.4%
14:55 USA Michigan sentiment index (January) final 73.1 72.7

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